Integrated health prediction of bridge systems using dynamic object oriented Bayesian networks (DOOBNS)

The serviceability and safety of bridges are crucial to people’s daily lives and to the national economy. Every effort should be taken to make sure that bridges function safely and properly as any damage or fault during the service life can lead to transport paralysis, catastrophic loss of property or even casualties. Nonetheless, aggressive environmental conditions, ever-increasing and changing traffic loads and aging can all contribute to bridge deterioration. With often constrained budget, it is of significance to identify bridges and bridge elements that should be given higher priority for maintenance, rehabilitation or replacement, and to select optimal strategy. Bridge health prediction is an essential underpinning science to bridge maintenance optimization, since the effectiveness of optimal maintenance decision is largely dependent on the forecasting accuracy of bridge health performance. The current approaches for bridge health prediction can be categorised into two groups: condition ratings based and structural reliability based. A comprehensive literature review has revealed the following limitations of the current modelling approaches: (1) it is not evident in literature to date that any integrated approaches exist for modelling both serviceability and safety aspects so that both performance criteria can be evaluated coherently; (2) complex system modelling approaches have not been successfully applied to bridge deterioration modelling though a bridge is a complex system composed of many inter-related bridge elements; (3) multiple bridge deterioration factors, such as deterioration dependencies among different bridge elements, observed information, maintenance actions and environmental effects have not been considered jointly; (4) the existing approaches are lacking in Bayesian updating ability to incorporate a variety of event information; (5) the assumption of series and/or parallel relationship for bridge level reliability is always held in all structural reliability estimation of bridge systems. To address the deficiencies listed above, this research proposes three novel models based on the Dynamic Object Oriented Bayesian Networks (DOOBNs) approach. Model I aims to address bridge deterioration in serviceability using condition ratings as the health index. The bridge deterioration is represented in a hierarchical relationship, in accordance with the physical structure, so that the contribution of each bridge element to bridge deterioration can be tracked. A discrete-time Markov process is employed to model deterioration of bridge elements over time. In Model II, bridge deterioration in terms of safety is addressed. The structural reliability of bridge systems is estimated from bridge elements to the entire bridge. By means of conditional probability tables (CPTs), not only series-parallel relationship but also complex probabilistic relationship in bridge systems can be effectively modelled. The structural reliability of each bridge element is evaluated from its limit state functions, considering the probability distributions of resistance and applied load. Both Models I and II are designed in three steps: modelling consideration, DOOBN development and parameters estimation. Model III integrates Models I and II to address bridge health performance in both serviceability and safety aspects jointly. The modelling of bridge ratings is modified so that every basic modelling unit denotes one physical bridge element. According to the specific materials used, the integration of condition ratings and structural reliability is implemented through critical failure modes. Three case studies have been conducted to validate the proposed models, respectively. Carefully selected data and knowledge from bridge experts, the National Bridge Inventory (NBI) and existing literature were utilised for model validation. In addition, event information was generated using simulation to demonstrate the Bayesian updating ability of the proposed models. The prediction results of condition ratings and structural reliability were presented and interpreted for basic bridge elements and the whole bridge system. The results obtained from Model II were compared with the ones obtained from traditional structural reliability methods. Overall, the prediction results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed modelling approach for bridge health prediction and underpin the assertion that the three models can be used separately or integrated and are more effective than the current bridge deterioration modelling approaches. The primary contribution of this work is to enhance the knowledge in the field of bridge health prediction, where more comprehensive health performance in both serviceability and safety aspects are addressed jointly. The proposed models, characterised by probabilistic representation of bridge deterioration in hierarchical ways, demonstrated the effectiveness and pledge of DOOBNs approach to bridge health management. Additionally, the proposed models have significant potential for bridge maintenance optimization. Working together with advanced monitoring and inspection techniques, and a comprehensive bridge inventory, the proposed models can be used by bridge practitioners to achieve increased serviceability and safety as well as maintenance cost effectiveness.

Dynamic equivalent state estimation for multi-area power systems with synchronized phasor measurement units

This paper proposes a new approach for state estimation of angles and frequencies of equivalent areas in large power systems with synchronized phasor measurement units. Defining coherent generators and their correspondent areas, generators are aggregated and system reduction is performed in each area of inter-connected power systems. The structure of the reduced system is obtained based on the characteristics of the reduced linear model and measurement data to form the non-linear model of the reduced system. Then a Kalman estimator is designed for the reduced system to provide an equivalent dynamic system state estimation using the synchronized phasor measurement data. The method is simulated on two test systems to evaluate the feasibility of the proposed method.

Can measures of limb loading and dynamic stability during the squat maneuver provide an index of early functional recovery following unilateral total hip arthroplasty?

Objective: To investigate limb loading and dynamic stability during squatting in the early functional recovery of total hip arthroplasty (THA) patients. Design: Cohort study Setting: Inpatient rehabilitation clinic. Participants: A random sample of 61 THA patients (34♂/27♀; 62±9 yrs, 77±14 kg, 174±9 cm) was assessed twice, 13.2±3.8 days (PRE) and 26.6±3.3 days post-surgery (POST), and compared with a healthy reference group (REF) (22♂/16♀; 47±12yrs; 78±20kg; 175±10cm). Interventions: THA patients received two weeks of standard in-patient rehabilitation. Main Outcome Measure(s): Inter-limb vertical force distribution and dynamic stability during the squat maneuver, as defined by the root mean square (RMS) of the center of pressure in antero-posterior and medio-lateral directions, of operated (OP) and non-operated (NON)limbs. Self-reported function was assessed via FFb-H-OA 2.0 questionnaire. Results: At PRE, unloading of the OP limb was 15.8% greater (P<.001, d=1.070) and antero-posterior and medio-lateral center of pressure RMS were 30-34% higher in THA than REF P<.05). Unloading was reduced by 12.8% towards a more equal distribution from PRE to POST (P<.001, d=0.874). Although medio-lateral stability improved between PRE and POST (OP: 14.8%, P=.024, d=0.397; NON: 13.1%, P=.015, d=0.321), antero-posterior stability was not significantly different. Self-reported physical function improved by 15.8% (P<.001, d=0.965). Conclusion(s): THA patients unload the OP limb and are dynamically more unstable during squatting in the early rehabilitation phase following total hip replacement than healthy adults. Although loading symmetry and medio-lateral stability improved to the level of healthy adults with rehabilitation, antero-posterior stability remained impaired. Measures of dynamic stability and load symmetry during squatting provide quantitative information that can be used to clinically monitor early functional recovery from THA.

Correction factors for dynamic state estimation of aggregated generators

This paper presents an approach for dynamic state estimation of aggregated generators by introducing a new correction factor for equivalent inter-area power flows. The spread of generators from the center of inertia of each area is summarized by the correction term α on the equivalent power flow between the areas and is applied to the identification and estimation process. A nonlinear time varying Kalman filter is applied to estimate the equivalent angles and velocities of coherent areas by reducing the effect of local modes on the estimated states. The approach is simulated on two test systems and the results show the effect of the correction factor and the performance of the state estimation by estimating the inter-area dynamics of the system.

Separating grazing and rainfall effects at regional scale using remote sensing imagery: A dynamic reference-cover method

Remote detection of management-related trend in the presence of inter-annual climatic variability in the rangelands is difficult. Minimally disturbed reference areas provide a useful guide, but suitable benchmarks are usually difficult to identify. We describe a method that uses a unique conceptual framework to identify reference areas from multitemporal sequences of ground cover derived from Landsat TM and ETM+ imagery. The method does not require ground-based reference sites nor GIS layers about management. We calculate a minimum ground cover image across all years to identify locations of most persistent ground cover in years of lowest rainfall. We then use a moving window approach to calculate the difference between the window's central pixel and its surrounding reference pixels. This difference estimates ground-cover change between successive below-average rainfall years, which provides a seasonally interpreted measure of management effects. We examine the approach's sensitivity to window size and to cover-index percentiles used to define persistence. The method successfully detected management-related change in ground cover in Queensland tropical savanna woodlands in two case studies: (1) a grazing trial where heavy stocking resulted in substantial decline in ground cover in small paddocks, and (2) commercial paddocks where wet-season spelling (destocking) resulted in increased ground cover. At a larger scale, there was broad agreement between our analysis of ground-cover change and ground-based land condition change for commercial beef properties with different a priori ratings of initial condition, but there was also some disagreement where changing condition reflected pasture composition rather than ground cover. We conclude that the method is suitably robust to analyse grazing effects on ground cover across the 1.3 x 10(6) km(2) of Queensland's rangelands. Crown Copyright (c) 2012 Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Model for Creating Strategic Alliances. A Study of Inter-firm Cooperation in the North European ICT Sector

In this study, it is argued that the view on alliance creation presented in the current academic literature is limited, and that using a learning approach helps to explain the dynamic nature of alliance creation. The cases in this study suggest that a wealth of inefficiency elements can be found in alliance creation. These elements can further be divided into categories, which help explain the dynamics of alliance creation. The categories –combined with two models brought forward by the study– suggest that inefficiency can be avoided through learning during the creation process. Some elements are especially central to this argumentation. First, the elements related to the clarity and acceptance of the strategy of the company, the potential lack of an alliance strategy and the elements related to changes in the strategic context. Second, the elements related to the length of the alliance creation processes and the problems a long process entails. It is further suggested that the different inefficiency elements may create a situation, where the alliance creation process is –sequentially and successfully– followed to the end, but where the different inefficiencies create a situation where the results are not aligned with the strategic intent. The proposed solution is to monitor and assess the risk for inefficiency elements during the alliance creation process. The learning, which occurs during the alliance creation process as a result of the monitoring, can then lead to realignments in the process. This study proposes a model to mitigate the risk related to the inefficiencies. The model emphasizes creating an understanding of the other alliance partner’s business, creating a shared vision, using pilot cooperation and building trust within the process. An analytical approach to assessing the benefits of trust is also central in this view. The alliance creation approach suggested by this study, which emphasizes trust and pilot cooperation, is further critically reviewed against contracting as a way to create alliances.

Molecular Caches: A caching structure for dynamic creation of application-specific Heterogeneous cache regions

CMPs enable simultaneous execution of multiple applications on the same platforms that share cache resources. Diversity in the cache access patterns of these simultaneously executing applications can potentially trigger inter-application interference, leading to cache pollution. Whereas a large cache can ameliorate this problem, the issues of larger power consumption with increasing cache size, amplified at sub-100nm technologies, makes this solution prohibitive. In this paper in order to address the issues relating to power-aware performance of caches, we propose a caching structure that addresses the following: 1. Definition of application-specific cache partitions as an aggregation of caching units (molecules). The parameters of each molecule namely size, associativity and line size are chosen so that the power consumed by it and access time are optimal for the given technology. 2. Application-Specific resizing of cache partitions with variable and adaptive associativity per cache line, way size and variable line size. 3. A replacement policy that is transparent to the partition in terms of size, heterogeneity in associativity and line size. Through simulation studies we establish the superiority of molecular cache (caches built as aggregations of molecules) that offers a 29% power advantage over that of an equivalently performing traditional cache.

Large deformation dynamic finite element analysis of delaminated composite plates using contact-impact conditions

A new C-0 composite plate finite element based on Reddy's third order theory is used for large deformation dynamic analysis of delaminated composite plates. The inter-laminar contact is modeled with an augmented Lagrangian approach. Numerical results show that the widely used ``unconditionally stable'' beta-Newmark method presents instability problems in the transient simulation of delaminated composite plate structures with large deformation. To overcome this instability issue, an energy and momentum conserving composite implicit time integration scheme presented by Bathe and Baig is used. It is found that a proper selection of the penalty parameter is very crucial in the contact simulation. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dynamic characterization of micro-particle systems

Ordered granular systems have been a subject of active research for decades. Due to their rich dynamic response and nonlinearity, ordered granular systems have been suggested for several applications, such as solitary wave focusing, acoustic signals manipulation, and vibration absorption. Most of the fundamental research performed on ordered granular systems has focused on macro-scale examples. However, most engineering applications require these systems to operate at much smaller scales. Very little is known about the response of micro-scale granular systems, primarily because of the difficulties in realizing reliable and quantitative experiments, which originate from the discrete nature of granular materials and their highly nonlinear inter-particle contact forces.

In this work, we investigate the physics of ordered micro-granular systems by designing an innovative experimental platform that allows us to assemble, excite, and characterize ordered micro-granular systems. This new experimental platform employs a laser system to deliver impulses with controlled momentum and incorporates non-contact measurement apparatuses to detect the particles’ displacement and velocity. We demonstrated the capability of the laser system to excite systems of dry (stainless steel particles of radius 150 micrometers) and wet (silica particles of radius 3.69 micrometers, immersed in fluid) micro-particles, after which we analyzed the stress propagation through these systems.

We derived the equations of motion governing the dynamic response of dry and wet particles on a substrate, which we then validated in experiments. We then measured the losses in these systems and characterized the collision and friction between two micro-particles. We studied wave propagation in one-dimensional dry chains of micro-particles as well as in two-dimensional colloidal systems immersed in fluid. We investigated the influence of defects to wave propagation in the one-dimensional systems. Finally, we characterized the wave-attenuation and its relation to the viscosity of the surrounding fluid and performed computer simulations to establish a model that captures the observed response.

The findings of the study offer the first systematic experimental and numerical analysis of wave propagation through ordered systems of micro-particles. The experimental system designed in this work provides the necessary tools for further fundamental studies of wave propagation in both granular and colloidal systems.

Applications of the dynamic mode decomposition

The decomposition of experimental data into dynamic modes using a data-based algorithm is applied to Schlieren snapshots of a helium jet and to time-resolved PIV-measurements of an unforced and harmonically forced jet. The algorithm relies on the reconstruction of a low-dimensional inter-snapshot map from the available flow field data. The spectral decomposition of this map results in an eigenvalue and eigenvector representation (referred to as dynamic modes) of the underlying fluid behavior contained in the processed flow fields. This dynamic mode decomposition allows the breakdown of a fluid process into dynamically revelant and coherent structures and thus aids in the characterization and quantification of physical mechanisms in fluid flow. © 2010 Springer-Verlag.

STUDY ON STRUCTURE-PROPERTY RELATIONSHIP OF POLYIMIDE BLENDS .1. A DYNAMIC MECHANICAL STUDY OF THE MISCIBILITY OF POLYIMIDE POLYIMIDE BLENDS

Three pairs of polyimide/polyimide blends (50/50 wt%) with different molecular structures were prepared by two ways, i.e. mixing of the polyamic acid precursors with subsequent imidization, and direct solution mixing of the polyimides. The blends were studied with DMA technique. The results obtained show that all the blends prepared with these two different ways are miscible, as there existed only one glass transition temperature(Tg) for all the blends. It is suggested that the miscibility of these polyimide/polyimide blends is a result of the strong inter-molecular charge-transfer interaction between the chains of their components.

Energy-aware dynamic route management for THAWS

In this research we focus on the Tyndall 25mm and 10mm nodes energy-aware topology management to extend sensor network lifespan and optimise node power consumption. The two tiered Tyndall Heterogeneous Automated Wireless Sensors (THAWS) tool is used to quickly create and configure application-specific sensor networks. To this end, we propose to implement a distributed route discovery algorithm and a practical energy-aware reaction model on the 25mm nodes. Triggered by the energy-warning events, the miniaturised Tyndall 10mm data collector nodes adaptively and periodically change their association to 25mm base station nodes, while 25mm nodes also change the inter-connections between themselves, which results in reconfiguration of the 25mm nodes tier topology. The distributed routing protocol uses combined weight functions to balance the sensor network traffic. A system level simulation is used to quantify the benefit of the route management framework when compared to other state of the art approaches in terms of the system power-saving.

An automatable generic strategy for dynamic load balancing in parallel structured mesh CFD codes

Parallel computing is now widely used in numerical simulation, particularly for application codes based on finite difference and finite element methods. A popular and successful technique employed to parallelize such codes onto large distributed memory systems is to partition the mesh into sub-domains that are then allocated to processors. The code then executes in parallel, using the SPMD methodology, with message passing for inter-processor interactions. In order to improve the parallel efficiency of an imbalanced structured mesh CFD code, a new dynamic load balancing (DLB) strategy has been developed in which the processor partition range limits of just one of the partitioned dimensions uses non-coincidental limits, as opposed to coincidental limits. The ‘local’ partition limit change allows greater flexibility in obtaining a balanced load distribution, as the workload increase, or decrease, on a processor is no longer restricted by the ‘global’ (coincidental) limit change. The automatic implementation of this generic DLB strategy within an existing parallel code is presented in this chapter, along with some preliminary results.

Modelling the effects of climate change on the distribution and production of marine fishes: accounting for trophic interactions in a dynamic bioclimate envelope model

Climate change has already altered the distribution of marine fishes. Future predictions of fish distributions and catches based on bioclimate envelope models are available, but to date they have not considered interspecific interactions. We address this by combining the species-based Dynamic Bioclimate Envelope Model (DBEM) with a size-based trophic model. The new approach provides spatially and temporally resolved predictions of changes in species' size, abundance and catch potential that account for the effects of ecological interactions. Predicted latitudinal shifts are, on average, reduced by 20% when species interactions are incorporated, compared to DBEM predictions, with pelagic species showing the greatest reductions. Goodness-of-fit of biomass data from fish stock assessments in the North Atlantic between 1991 and 2003 is improved slightly by including species interactions. The differences between predictions from the two models may be relatively modest because, at the North Atlantic basin scale, (i) predators and competitors may respond to climate change together; (ii) existing parameterization of the DBEM might implicitly incorporate trophic interactions; and/or (iii) trophic interactions might not be the main driver of responses to climate. Future analyses using ecologically explicit models and data will improve understanding of the effects of inter-specific interactions on responses to climate change, and better inform managers about plausible ecological and fishery consequences of a changing environment.

Biodiversity as a dynamic variable in the Gulf of Maine continuous plankton recorder transect

Studies relating biodiversity to ecosystem processes typically do not take into account changes in biodiversity through time. Marine systems are highly dynamic, with biodiversity changing at diel, seasonal and inter-decadal timescales. We examined the dynamics of biodiversity in the Gulf of Maine pelagic zooplankton community. Taxonomic data came from the Gulf of Maine continuous plankton recorder (CPR) transect, spanning the years 1961–2006. The CPR transect also contains coincident information on temperature and phytoplankton biomass (measured by the phytoplankton color index). Taxonomic richness varied at all timescales considered. The relationships between temperature and richness, and between phytoplankton and richness, also depended on temporal scale. The temperature–richness relationship was monotonic at the multi-decadal scale, and tended to be hump-shaped at finer scales; the productivity–richness relationship was hump-shaped at the multi-decadal scale, and tended to be monotonic at finer scales. Seasonal biodiversity dynamics were linked to temperature; inter-decadal biodiversity dynamics were linked to phytoplankton.