The Triatomines of Northern Peru, with Emphasis on the Ecology and Infection by Trypanosomes of Rhodnius ecuadoriensis (Triatominae)

Information on the distribution and synanthropic behaviour of triatomines is essential for Chagas disease vector control. This work summarises such information from northern Peru, and presents new data on Rhodnius ecuadoriensis - an important local vector infesting 10-35% of dwellings in some zones. Three species are strongly synanthropic and may be suitable targets for chemical control of domestic/peridomestic bug populations. Panstrongylus herreri, the main domestic vector in the area, is probably present in sylvatic ecotopes in the Marañón river system. R. ecuadoriensis and Triatoma dimidiata seem exclusively domestic; biogeographical and ecological data suggest they might have spread in association with humans in northern Peru. Confirmation of this hypothesis would result in a local eradication strategy being recommended. Presence of trypanosome natural infection was assessed in 257 R. ecuadoriensis; Trypanosoma rangeli was detected in 4% of bugs. Six further triatomine species are potential disease vectors in the region (T. carrioni, P. chinai, P. rufotuberculatus, P. geniculatus, R. pictipes, and R. robustus), whilst Eratyrus mucronatus, E. cuspidatus, Cavernicola pilosa, Hermanlentia matsunoi, and Belminus peruvianus have little or no epidemiological significance. A strong community-based entomological surveillance system and collaboration with Ecuadorian public health authorities and researchers are recommended.

Risk-based modelling of diffuse land use impacts from rural landscapes upon salmonid fry abundance

Research has demonstrated that landscape or watershed scale processes can influence instream aquatic ecosystems, in terms of the impacts of delivery of fine sediment, solutes and organic matter. Testing such impacts upon populations of organisms (i.e. at the catchment scale) has not proven straightforward and differences have emerged in the conclusions reached. This is: (1) partly because different studies have focused upon different scales of enquiry; but also (2) because the emphasis upon upstream land cover has rarely addressed the extent to which such land covers are hydrologically connected, and hence able to deliver diffuse pollution, to the drainage network However, there is a third issue. In order to develop suitable hydrological models, we need to conceptualise the process cascade. To do this, we need to know what matters to the organism being impacted by the hydrological system, such that we can identify which processes need to be modelled. Acquiring such knowledge is not easy, especially for organisms like fish that might occupy very different locations in the river over relatively short periods of time. However, and inevitably, hydrological modellers have started by building up piecemeal the aspects of the problem that we think matter to fish. Herein, we report two developments: (a) for the case of sediment associated diffuse pollution from agriculture, a risk-based modelling framework, SCIMAP, has been developed, which is distinct because it has an explicit focus upon hydrological connectivity; and (b) we use spatially distributed ecological data to infer the processes and the associated process parameters that matter to salmonid fry. We apply the model to spatially distributed salmon and fry data from the River Eden, Cumbria, England. The analysis shows, quite surprisingly, that arable land covers are relatively unimportant as drivers of fry abundance. What matters most is intensive pasture, a land cover that could be associated with a number of stressors on salmonid fry (e.g. pesticides, fine sediment) and which allows us to identify a series of risky field locations, where this land cover is readily connected to the river system by overland flow. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Detrital zircon and micropalaeontological ages as new constraints for the lowermost tectonic unit (Talea Ori unit) of Crete, Greece

The Talea Ori unit is the lowermost known tectonic unit of Crete and the most external part of the Hellenides. Its stratigraphy ranges from Late Carboniferous to Oligocene and outcrops of the lower part are only known in the Talea Ori mountains (central Crete). In this area, a black sandstone at the base of the Galinos Beds, thought to be the oldest formation, contains zircons which were dated using the single grain evaporation method. The majority of these grains yielded Late Carboniferous ages (Variscan), while a small group yielded Early Proterozoic ages. The age distribution of these zircons suggests that, at the Carboniferous-Permian boundary, not much of the older North Gondwanan basement was exposed and that a river system carried detrital material from the Variscan belt towards the forming Neotethyan rift. Additionally, higher up in the stratigraphy benthic foraminifers (miliolids) were found in clasts from a conglomerate which was so far thought to be of Early Triassic age [Epting, M., Kudrass, H.-R., Leppig, U., Schaffer, A., 1972. Geologie der Talea Ori/Kreta. N. Jb. Geol. Palaont. Abh. 141, 259-285.]. These miliolids belong to the species Hoyenella inconstans [Michalik, J., Jendrejakova, O., Borza, K., 1979. Some new foraminifera species of the Fatra-Formation (Uppermost Triassic) in the West Carpathians. Geol. Carpath. 30 (1), 61-91.], thus attributing a Late Triassic (Carnian-Norian?) maximal age to this conglomerate. The carbonate platform from which the miliolids-bearing clasts come is not known. The presence to the north of a continuous hemipelagic record from the Carboniferous to the Triassic (Phyllite-Quartzite and Tripali units), attributed to the Palaeotethys realm, allows the Talea Ori unit and its lateral equivalents (the Ionian zone) to be assigned to the westward continuation of the Cimmerian block and therefore to the northern margin of the East Mediterranean Neotethys ocean. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Conservation Genetics of Exploited Finnish Salmonid Fishes

Genetic diversity is one of the levels of biodiversity that the World Conservation Union (IUCN) has recognized as being important to preserve. This is because genetic diversity is fundamental to the future evolution and to the adaptive flexibility of a species to respond to the inherently dynamic nature of the natural world. Therefore, the key to maintaining biodiversity and healthy ecosystems is to identify, monitor and maintain locally-adapted populations, along with their unique gene pools, upon which future adaptation depends. Thus, conservation genetics deals with the genetic factors that affect extinction risk and the genetic management regimes required to minimize the risk. The conservation of exploited species, such as salmonid fishes, is particularly challenging due to the conflicts between different interest groups. In this thesis, I conduct a series of conservation genetic studies on primarily Finnish populations of two salmonid fish species (European grayling, Thymallus thymallus, and lake-run brown trout, Salmo trutta) which are popular recreational game fishes in Finland. The general aim of these studies was to apply and develop population genetic approaches to assist conservation and sustainable harvest of these populations. The approaches applied included: i) the characterization of population genetic structure at national and local scales; ii) the identification of management units and the prioritization of populations for conservation based on evolutionary forces shaping indigenous gene pools; iii) the detection of population declines and the testing of the assumptions underlying these tests; and iv) the evaluation of the contribution of natural populations to a mixed stock fishery. Based on microsatellite analyses, clear genetic structuring of exploited Finnish grayling and brown trout populations was detected at both national and local scales. Finnish grayling were clustered into three genetically distinct groups, corresponding to northern, Baltic and south-eastern geographic areas of Finland. The genetic differentiation among and within population groups of grayling ranged from moderate to high levels. Such strong genetic structuring combined with low genetic diversity strongly indicates that genetic drift plays a major role in the evolution of grayling populations. Further analyses of European grayling covering the majority of the species’ distribution range indicated a strong global footprint of population decline. Using a coalescent approach the beginning of population reduction was dated back to 1 000-10 000 years ago (ca. 200-2 000 generations). Forward simulations demonstrated that the bottleneck footprints measured using the M ratio can persist within small populations much longer than previously anticipated in the face of low levels of gene flow. In contrast to the M ratio, two alternative methods for genetic bottleneck detection identified recent bottlenecks in six grayling populations that warrant future monitoring. Consistent with the predominant role of random genetic drift, the effective population size (N_e) estimates of all grayling populations were very low with the majority of N_e estimates below 50. Taken together, highly structured local populations, limited gene flow and the small N_e of grayling populations indicates that grayling populations are vulnerable to overexploitation and, hence, monitoring and careful management using the precautionary principles is required not only in Finland but throughout Europe. Population genetic analyses of lake-run brown trout populations in the Inari basin (northernmost Finland) revealed hierarchical population structure where individual populations were clustered into three population groups largely corresponding to different geographic regions of the basin. Similar to my earlier work with European grayling, the genetic differentiation among and within population groups of lake-run brown trout was relatively high. Such strong differentiation indicated that the power to determine the relative contribution of populations in mixed fisheries should be relatively high. Consistent with these expectations, high accuracy and precision in mixed stock analysis (MSA) simulations were observed. Application of MSA to indigenous fish caught in the Inari basin identified altogether twelve populations that contributed significantly to mixed stock fisheries with the Ivalojoki river system being the major contributor (70%) to the total catch. When the contribution of wild trout populations to the fisheries was evaluated regionally, geographically nearby populations were the main contributors to the local catches. MSA also revealed a clear separation between the lower and upper reaches of Ivalojoki river system – in contrast to lower reaches of the Ivalojoki river that contributed considerably to the catch, populations from the upper reaches of the Ivalojoki river system (>140 km from the river mouth) did not contribute significantly to the fishery. This could be related to the available habitat size but also associated with a resident type life history and increased cost of migration. The studies in my thesis highlight the importance of dense sampling and wide population coverage at the scale being studied and also demonstrate the importance of critical evaluation of the underlying assumptions of the population genetic models and methods used. These results have important implications for conservation and sustainable fisheries management of Finnish populations of European grayling and brown trout in the Inari basin.

Resilience: An Annotated Bibliography

This annotated bibliography provides an account of the research that has been done on engineering resilience, ecological resilience, and social-ecological resilience. Undertaken as part of the WEPGN research project titled “Applying resilience analysis to a transboundary river system: Developing surrogates for institutions and governance”, this annotated bibliography investigates factors that lead to greater resilience, with a focus on institutions and governance. Citations for key scholarly publications related to three types of resilience – engineering, ecological, and social-ecological – are listed in the first three sections along with a brief summary of each work. The fourth and final section of the document provides additional resources on resilience.

La vulnérabilité face aux risques environnementaux à Kigali (Rwanda) : enjeux et facteurs

L’objectif de ce mémoire est de faire un état des lieux des connaissances produites sur les risques environnementaux et la vulnérabilité et appliquer ces connaissances à la ville de Kigali (Rwanda). Après avoir présenté différentes approches, nous avons retenu le cadre d’analyse qui s’inscrit dans l’approche de J.C. Thouret et R.D’Ercole (1996). Cette approche est articulée autour de trois dimensions : enjeux, facteurs de la vulnérabilité et réponses sociales. A travers l’application des éléments pertinents de ces trois dimensions dans le cas de la ville de Kigali, réalisée grâce à une analyse qualitative, centrée sur l’analyse des documents et des entrevues semi-dirigées, voici les principaux résultats que nous avons obtenus: l’analyse des enjeux a révélé que la ville de Kigali est confrontée à plusieurs dommages, parmi lesquels, on peut mentionner les pertes des vies humaines, la démolition des maisons, la contamination des rivières, la prolifération des maladies et la perturbation des besoins de base ( eau potable, électricité, transport) dues aux risques. Cette situation s’explique par la combinaison de plusieurs facteurs dont le relief collinaire, le sol granitique, les pluies violentes, le caractère centrifuge du réseau hydrographique, le sous-dimensionnement des ouvrages d’évacuation et le réseau d’assainissement insuffisant. D’autres facteurs amplifient la vulnérabilité dont l’explosion démographique consécutive à une urbanisation spontanée et inconsciente en zones inondables, l’ensablement des lits des rivières, le vide juridique, les politiques fragmentaires et le dysfonctionnement des acteurs impliqués dans la gestion des risques. Cette situation aurait probablement été améliorée si les réponses sociales étaient efficaces. Or, d’un côté, la faible perception de risque chez les résidants affectés par les risques accélère davantage la vulnérabilité et de l’autre côté, l’intervention significative des CIB n’est pas accompagnée d’actions complémentaires des institutions publiques et des agences internationales.

Écologie et implications trophiques de la cyanobactérie Lyngbya wollei dans le fleuve Saint-Laurent

Les proliférations nuisibles de la cyanobactérie filamenteuse benthique Lyngbya wollei qui forme des tapis déposés sur les sédiments ont augmenté en fréquence au cours des 30 dernières années dans les rivières, lacs et sources de l'Amérique du Nord. Lyngbya wollei produit des neurotoxines et des composés organiques volatils (géosmin, 2-méthylisobornéol) qui ont des répercussions sur la santé publique de même que des impacts d'ordre socioéconomiques. Cette cyanobactérie est considérée comme un habitat et une source de nourriture de piètre qualité pour les invertébrés en raison de sa gaine robuste et de sa production de toxines. Les proliférations de L. wollei ont été observées pour la première fois en 2005 dans le fleuve Saint-Laurent (SLR; Québec, Canada). Nous avons jugé important de déterminer sa distribution sur un tronçon de 250 km afin d'élaborer des modèles prédictifs de sa présence et biomasse en se basant sur les caractéristiques chimiques et physiques de l'eau. Lyngbya wollei était généralement observé en aval de la confluence de petits tributaires qui irriguent des terres agricoles. L’écoulement d’eaux enrichies à travers la végétation submergée se traduisait par une diminution de la concentration d’azote inorganique dissous (DIN), alors que les concentrations de carbone organique dissous (DOC) et de phosphore total dissous (TDP) demeuraient élevées, produisant un faible rapport DIN :TDP. Selon nos modèles, DOC (effet positif), TP (effet négatif) et DIN :TDP (effet négatif) sont les variables les plus importantes pour expliquer la répartition de cette cyanobactérie. La probabilité que L. wollei soit présent dans le SLR a été prédite avec exactitude dans 72 % à 92 % des cas pour un ensemble de données indépendantes. Nous avons ensuite examiné si les conditions hydrodynamiques, c'est-à-dire le courant généré par les vagues et l'écoulement du fleuve, contrôlent les variations spatiales et temporelles de biomasse de L. wollei dans un grand système fluvial. Nous avons mesuré la biomasse de L. wollei ainsi que les variables chimiques, physiques et météorologiques durant trois ans à 10 sites le long d'un gradient d'exposition au courant et au vent dans un grand (148 km2) lac fluvial du SLR. L'exposition aux vagues et la vitesse du courant contrôlaient les variations de biomasses spatiales et temporelles. La biomasse augmentait de mai à novembre et persistait durant l'hiver. Les variations interannuelles étaient contrôlées par l'écoulement de la rivière (niveau d'eau) avec la crue printanière qui délogeait les tapis de l'année précédente. Les baisses du niveau d'eau et l'augmentation de l'intensité des tempêtes anticipées par les scénarios de changements climatiques pourraient accroître la superficie colonisée par L. wollei de même que son accumulation sur les berges. Par la suite, nous avons évalué l'importance relative de L. wollei par rapport aux macrophytes et aux épiphytes. Nous avons examiné l'influence structurante de l'échelle spatiale sur les variables environnementales et la biomasse de ces producteurs primaires (PP) benthiques. Nous avons testé si leur biomasse reflétait la nature des agrégats d'habitat basées sur l'écogéomorphologie ou plutôt le continuum fluvial. Pour répondre à ces deux questions, nous avons utilisé un design à 3 échelles spatiales dans le SLR: 1) le long d'un tronçon de 250 km, 2) entre les lacs fluviaux localisés dans ce tronçon, 3) à l'intérieur de chaque lac fluvial. Les facteurs environnementaux (conductivité et TP) et la structure spatiale expliquent 59% de la variation de biomasse des trois PP benthiques. Spécifiquement, les variations de biomasses étaient le mieux expliquées par la conductivité (+) pour les macrophytes, par le ratio DIN:TDP (+) et le coefficient d'extinction lumineuse (+) pour les épiphytes et par le DOC (+) et le NH4+ (-) pour L. wollei. La structure spatiale à l'intérieur des lacs fluviaux était la plus importante composante spatiale pour tous les PP benthiques, suggérant que les effets locaux tels que l'enrichissement par les tributaire plutôt que les gradients amont-aval déterminent la biomasse de PP benthiques. Donc, la dynamique des agrégats d'habitat représente un cadre général adéquat pour expliquer les variations spatiales et la grande variété de conditions environnementales supportant des organismes aquatiques dans les grands fleuves. Enfin, nous avons étudié le rôle écologique des tapis de L. wollei dans les écosystèmes aquatiques, en particulier comme source de nourriture et refuge pour l'amphipode Gammarus fasciatus. Nous avons offert aux amphipodes un choix entre des tapis de L. wollei et soit des chlorophytes filamenteuses ou un tapis artificiel de laine acrylique lors d'expériences en laboratoire. Nous avons aussi reconstitué la diète in situ des amphipodes à l'aide du mixing model (d13C et δ15N). Gammarus fasciatus choisissait le substrat offrant le meilleur refuge face à la lumière (Acrylique>Lyngbya=Rhizoclonium>Spirogyra). La présence de saxitoxines, la composition élémentaire des tissus et l'abondance des épiphytes n'ont eu aucun effet sur le choix de substrat. Lyngbya wollei et ses épiphytes constituaient 36 et 24 % de l'alimentation in situ de G. fasciatus alors que les chlorophytes, les macrophytes et les épiphytes associées représentaient une fraction moins importante de son alimentation. Les tapis de cyanobactéries benthiques devraient être considérés comme un bon refuge et une source de nourriture pour les petits invertébrés omnivores tels que les amphipodes.

Fish habitats and species assemblage in the selected rivers of Kerala and investigation on life history traits of Puntius carnaticus(Jerdon,1849)

This thesis entitled Fish habitats and species assemblage in the selected rivers of kerala and investigation on life history traits of puntius carnaticus (JERDON,1849). Ecology is a new and exceedingly complex field of study, even though its concept was recognized by the Apostles in their use of the phrase ‘all flesh is grass.central role to play both in order to understand better the biodiversity phenomenon and to be able to draw up clear guidelines for careful resource management. In a review by WWF, IUCN and UNEP on the ways of conserving genetic diversity of freshwater fish it was recommended that the best way to conserve species diversity is to conserve habitat.The habitat studies in freshwater ecosystems are very essential for the proper understanding and management of human impact on fish diversity, to study the relationship between habitat variables and fish species assemblage structure, quantification of ecosystem degradation, habitat quality and biotic integrity of the ecosystems, development of habitat suitability index (I-ISI) models and classification of river reaches based on their physico-chemical properties. Therefore in the present study an attempt was made to assess the biodiversity potential and the relationship between habitat variables and fish species assemblage structure in six major river systems of Kerala which would be very useful in impressing upon the seriousness of habitat degradIn the present study, in Kabbini river system 15 locations encompassing between 721 946m above MSL were surveyed.ation and biotic devastation undergone in the major river systems of Kerala.During the present study the Habitat Quality Score (HQ) developed by the Ohio EPA was applied for the first time in India.The result of the present study revealed that, among various variables analysed, altitude has a very significant influence in deciding the fish diversity in six major river systems of Kerala. The fish diversity studied on the basis of Shanon-Weiner and Simpson diversity indices revealed that even though some minor variations occur with the suitability and complexity of habitats, the altitude showed inverse relationship with fish diversity.The present study revealed that the National Policy on the interlinking of rivers would permanently alter the HSI indices of the above mentioned fish species, which are now solely protected by the individuality of the rivers where their limited occurrence was notice.

Modeling the Stream Water Nitrate Dynamics in 60,000-km(2) European Catchment, the Garonne, Southwest France

The spatial and temporal dynamics in the stream water NO3-N concentrations in a major European river-system, the Garonne (62,700 km(2)), are described and related to variations in climate, land management, and effluent point-sources using multivariate statistics. Building on this, the Hydrologiska Byrans Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) rainfall-runoff model and the Integrated Catchment Model of Nitrogen (INCA-N) are applied to simulate the observed flow and N dynamics. This is done to help us to understand which factors and processes control the flow and N dynamics in different climate zones and to assess the relative inputs from diffuse and point sources across the catchment. This is the first application of the linked HBV and INCA-N models to a major European river system commensurate with the largest basins to be managed tinder the Water Framework Directive. The simulations suggest that in the lowlands, seasonal patterns in the stream water NO3-N concentrations emerge and are dominated by diffuse agricultural inputs, with an estimated 75% of the river load in the lowlands derived from arable farming. The results confirm earlier European catchment studies. Namely, current semi-distrubuted catchment-scale dynamic models, which integrate variations in land cover, climate, and a simple representation of the terrestrial and in-stream N cycle, are able to simulate seasonal NO3-N patterns at large spatial (> 300 km(2)) and temporal (>= monthly) scales using available national datasets.

Over-parameterised, uncertain 'mathematical marionettes' - How can we best use catchment water quality models? An example of an 80-year catchment-scale nutrient balance

The Integrated Catchment Model of Nitrogen (INCA-N) was applied to the River Lambourn, a Chalk river-system in southern England. The model's abilities to simulate the long-term trend and seasonal patterns in observed stream water nitrate concentrations from 1920 to 2003 were tested. This is the first time a semi-distributed, daily time-step model has been applied to simulate such a long time period and then used to calculate detailed catchment nutrient budgets which span the conversion of pasture to arable during the late 1930s and 1940s. Thus, this work goes beyond source apportionment and looks to demonstrate how such simulations can be used to assess the state of the catchment and develop an understanding of system behaviour. The mass-balance results from 1921, 1922, 1991, 2001 and 2002 are presented and those for 1991 are compared to other modelled and literature values of loads associated with nitrogen soil processes and export. The variations highlighted the problem of comparing modelled fluxes with point measurements but proved useful for identifying the most poorly understood inputs and processes thereby providing an assessment of input data and model structural uncertainty. The modelled terrestrial and instream mass-balances also highlight the importance of the hydrological conditions in pollutant transport. Between 1922 and 2002, increased inputs of nitrogen from fertiliser, livestock and deposition have altered the nitrogen balance with a shift from possible reduction in soil fertility but little environmental impact in 1922, to a situation of nitrogen accumulation in the soil, groundwater and instream biota in 2002. In 1922 and 2002 it was estimated that approximately 2 and 18 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1) respectively were exported from the land to the stream. The utility of the approach and further considerations for the best use of models are discussed. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modeling the Stream Water Nitrate Dynamics in 60,000-km(2) European Catchment, the Garonne, Southwest France

The spatial and temporal dynamics in the stream water NO3-N concentrations in a major European river-system, the Garonne (62,700 km(2)), are described and related to variations in climate, land management, and effluent point-sources using multivariate statistics. Building on this, the Hydrologiska Byrans Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) rainfall-runoff model and the Integrated Catchment Model of Nitrogen (INCA-N) are applied to simulate the observed flow and N dynamics. This is done to help us to understand which factors and processes control the flow and N dynamics in different climate zones and to assess the relative inputs from diffuse and point sources across the catchment. This is the first application of the linked HBV and INCA-N models to a major European river system commensurate with the largest basins to be managed tinder the Water Framework Directive. The simulations suggest that in the lowlands, seasonal patterns in the stream water NO3-N concentrations emerge and are dominated by diffuse agricultural inputs, with an estimated 75% of the river load in the lowlands derived from arable farming. The results confirm earlier European catchment studies. Namely, current semi-distrubuted catchment-scale dynamic models, which integrate variations in land cover, climate, and a simple representation of the terrestrial and in-stream N cycle, are able to simulate seasonal NO3-N patterns at large spatial (> 300 km(2)) and temporal (>= monthly) scales using available national datasets.

Over-parameterised, uncertain 'mathematical marionettes' - How can we best use catchment water quality models? An example of an 80-year catchment-scale nutrient balance

The Integrated Catchment Model of Nitrogen (INCA-N) was applied to the River Lambourn, a Chalk river-system in southern England. The model's abilities to simulate the long-term trend and seasonal patterns in observed stream water nitrate concentrations from 1920 to 2003 were tested. This is the first time a semi-distributed, daily time-step model has been applied to simulate such a long time period and then used to calculate detailed catchment nutrient budgets which span the conversion of pasture to arable during the late 1930s and 1940s. Thus, this work goes beyond source apportionment and looks to demonstrate how such simulations can be used to assess the state of the catchment and develop an understanding of system behaviour. The mass-balance results from 1921, 1922, 1991, 2001 and 2002 are presented and those for 1991 are compared to other modelled and literature values of loads associated with nitrogen soil processes and export. The variations highlighted the problem of comparing modelled fluxes with point measurements but proved useful for identifying the most poorly understood inputs and processes thereby providing an assessment of input data and model structural uncertainty. The modelled terrestrial and instream mass-balances also highlight the importance of the hydrological conditions in pollutant transport. Between 1922 and 2002, increased inputs of nitrogen from fertiliser, livestock and deposition have altered the nitrogen balance with a shift from possible reduction in soil fertility but little environmental impact in 1922, to a situation of nitrogen accumulation in the soil, groundwater and instream biota in 2002. In 1922 and 2002 it was estimated that approximately 2 and 18 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1) respectively were exported from the land to the stream. The utility of the approach and further considerations for the best use of models are discussed. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impacts of climate change on in-stream nitrogen in a lowland chalk stream: An appraisal of adaptation strategies

The impacts of climate change on nitrogen (N) in a lowland chalk stream are investigated using a dynamic modelling approach. The INCA-N model is used to simulate transient daily hydrology and water quality in the River Kennet using temperature and precipitation scenarios downscaled from the General Circulation Model (GCM) output for the period 1961-2100. The three GCMs (CGCM2, CSIRO and HadCM3) yield very different river flow regimes with the latter projecting significant periods of drought in the second half of the 21st century. Stream-water N concentrations increase over time as higher temperatures enhance N release from the soil, and lower river flows reduce the dilution capacity of the river. Particular problems are shown to occur following severe droughts when N mineralization is high and the subsequent breaking of the drought releases high nitrate loads into the river system. Possible strategies for reducing climate-driven N loads are explored using INCA-N. The measures include land use change or fertiliser reduction, reduction in atmospheric nitrate and ammonium deposition, and the introduction of water meadows or connected wetlands adjacent to the river. The most effective strategy is to change land use or reduce fertiliser use, followed by water meadow creation, and atmospheric pollution controls. Finally, a combined approach involving all three strategies is investigated and shown to reduce in-stream nitrate concentrations to those pre-1950s even under climate change. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Does increased hydrochemical model complexity decrease robustness?

The aim of this study was, within a sensitivity analysis framework, to determine if additional model complexity gives a better capability to model the hydrology and nitrogen dynamics of a small Mediterranean forested catchment or if the additional parameters cause over-fitting. Three nitrogen-models of varying hydrological complexity were considered. For each model, general sensitivity analysis (GSA) and Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) were applied, each based on 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations. The results highlighted the most complex structure as the most appropriate, providing the best representation of the non-linear patterns observed in the flow and streamwater nitrate concentrations between 1999 and 2002. Its 5% and 95% GLUE bounds, obtained considering a multi-objective approach, provide the narrowest band for streamwater nitrogen, which suggests increased model robustness, though all models exhibit periods of inconsistent good and poor fits between simulated outcomes and observed data. The results confirm the importance of the riparian zone in controlling the short-term (daily) streamwater nitrogen dynamics in this catchment but not the overall flux of nitrogen from the catchment. It was also shown that as the complexity of a hydrological model increases over-parameterisation occurs, but the converse is true for a water quality model where additional process representation leads to additional acceptable model simulations. Water quality data help constrain the hydrological representation in process-based models. Increased complexity was justifiable for modelling river-system hydrochemistry. Increased complexity was justifiable for modelling river-system hydrochemistry.

The interactive responses of water quality and hydrology to changes in multiple stressors, and implications for the long-term effective management of phosphorus

Soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) plays a key role in eutrophication, a global problem decreasing habitat quality and in-stream biodiversity. Mitigation strategies are required to prevent SRP fluxes from exceeding critical levels, and must be robust in the face of potential changes in climate, land use and a myriad of other influences. To establish the longevity of these strategies it is therefore crucial to consider the sensitivity of catchments to multiple future stressors. This study evaluates how the water quality and hydrology of a major river system in the UK (the River Thames) respond to alterations in climate, land use and water resource allocations, and investigates how these changes impact the relative performance of management strategies over an 80-year period. In the River Thames, the relative contributions of SRP from diffuse and point sources vary seasonally. Diffuse sources of SRP from agriculture dominate during periods of high runoff, and point sources during low flow periods. SRP concentrations rose under any future scenario which either increased a) surface runoff or b) the area of cultivated land. Under these conditions, SRP was sourced from agriculture, and the most effective single mitigation measures were those which addressed diffuse SRP sources. Conversely, where future scenarios reduced flow e.g. during winters of reservoir construction, the significance of point source inputs increased, and mitigation measures addressing these issues became more effective. In catchments with multiple point and diffuse sources of SRP, an all-encompassing effective mitigation approach is difficult to achieve with a single strategy. In order to attain maximum efficiency, multiple strategies might therefore be employed at different times and locations, to target the variable nature of dominant SRP sources and pathways.