Bayesian networks for information synthesis in complex systems

This thesis introduces a method of applying Bayesian Networks to combine information from a range of data sources for effective decision support systems. It develops a set of techniques in development, validation, visualisation, and application of Complex Systems models, with a working demonstration in an Australian airport environment. The methods presented here have provided a modelling approach that produces highly flexible, informative and applicable interpretations of a system's behaviour under uncertain conditions. These end-to-end techniques are applied to the development of model based dashboards to support operators and decision makers in the multi-stakeholder airport environment. They provide highly flexible and informative interpretations and confidence in these interpretations of a system's behaviour under uncertain conditions.

Change visualisation: Analysing the resource and timing differences between two event logs

With organisations facing significant challenges to remain competitive, Business Process Improvement (BPI) initiatives are often conducted to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of their business processes, focussing on time, cost, and quality improvements. Event logs which contain a detailed record of business operations over a certain time period, recorded by an organisation's information systems, are the first step towards initiating evidence-based BPI activities. Given an (original) event log as a starting point, an approach to explore better ways to execute a business process was developed, resulting in an improved (perturbed) event log. Identifying the differences between the original event log and the perturbed event log can provide valuable insights, helping organisations to improve their processes. However, there is a lack of automated techniques to detect the differences between two event logs. Therefore, this research aims to develop visualisation techniques to provide targeted analysis of resource reallocation and activity rescheduling. The differences between two event logs are first identified. The changes between the two event logs are conceptualised and realised with a number of visualisations. With the proposed visualisations, analysts will then be able to identify the changes related to resource and time, resulting in a more efficient business process. Ultimately, analysts can make use of this comparative information to initiate evidence-based BPI activities.

Anatomy of a trending topic : Methods for the visualisation of retweet chains [Anatomie eines Trending Topics: Methoden zur Visualisierung von Retweet-Ketten]

Twitter and other social networking sites play an ever more present role in the spread of current events. The dynamics of information dissemination through digital network structures are still relatively unexplored, however. At what time an issue is taken up by whom? Who forwards a message when to whom else? What role do individual communication participants, existing digital communities or the technical foundations of each network platform play in the spread of news? In this chapter we discuss, using the example of a video on a current sociopolitical issue in Australia that was shared on Twitter, a number of new methods for the dynamic visualisation and analysis of communication processes. Our method combines temporal and spatial analytical approaches and provides new insights into the spread of news in digital networks. [Social media dienen immer häufger als Disseminationsmechanismen für Medieninhalte. Auf Twitter ermöglicht besonders die Retweet-Funktion den schnellen und weitläufgen Transfer von Nachrichten. In diesem Beitrag etablieren neue methodische Ansätze zur Erfassung, Visualisierung und Analyse von Retweet-Ketten. Insbesondere heben wir hervor, wie bestehende Netzwerkanalysemethoden ergänzt werden können, um den Ablauf der Weiterleitung sowohl temporal als auch spatial zu erfassen. Unsere Fallstudie demonstriert die verbreitung des videoclips einer am 9. Oktober 2012 spontan gehaltenen Wutrede der australischen Premierministerin Julia Gillard, in der sie Oppositionsführer Tony Abbott als Frauenhasser brandmarkte. Durch die Erfassung von Hintergrunddaten zu den jeweiligen NutzerInnen, die sich an der Weiterleitung des Videoclips beteiligten, erstellen wir ein detailliertes Bild des Disseminationsablaufs im vorliegenden Fall. So lassen sich die wichtigsten AkteurInnen und der Ablauf der Weiterleitung darstellen und analysieren. Daraus entstehen Einblicke in die allgemeinen verbreitungsmuster von Nachrichten auf Twitter].

The navigation and visualisation of environmental audio using zooming spectrograms

Acoustic recordings play an increasingly important role in monitoring terrestrial and aquatic environments. However, rapid advances in technology make it possible to accumulate thousands of hours of recordings, more than ecologists can ever listen to. Our approach to this big-data challenge is to visualize the content of long-duration audio recordings on multiple scales, from minutes, hours, days to years. The visualization should facilitate navigation and yield ecologically meaningful information prior to listening to the audio. To construct images, we calculate acoustic indices, statistics that describe the distribution of acoustic energy and reflect content of ecological interest. We combine various indices to produce false-color spectrogram images that reveal acoustic content and facilitate navigation. The technical challenge we investigate in this work is how to navigate recordings that are days or even months in duration. We introduce a method of zooming through multiple temporal scales, analogous to Google Maps. However, the “landscape” to be navigated is not geographical and not therefore intrinsically visual, but rather a graphical representation of the underlying audio. We describe solutions to navigating spectrograms that range over three orders of magnitude of temporal scale. We make three sets of observations: 1. We determine that at least ten intermediate scale steps are required to zoom over three orders of magnitude of temporal scale; 2. We determine that three different visual representations are required to cover the range of temporal scales; 3. We present a solution to the problem of maintaining visual continuity when stepping between different visual representations. Finally, we demonstrate the utility of the approach with four case studies.

Making the most of spatial information in health: A tutorial in Bayesian disease mapping for areal data

Disease maps are effective tools for explaining and predicting patterns of disease outcomes across geographical space, identifying areas of potentially elevated risk, and formulating and validating aetiological hypotheses for a disease. Bayesian models have become a standard approach to disease mapping in recent decades. This article aims to provide a basic understanding of the key concepts involved in Bayesian disease mapping methods for areal data. It is anticipated that this will help in interpretation of published maps, and provide a useful starting point for anyone interested in running disease mapping methods for areal data. The article provides detailed motivation and descriptions on disease mapping methods by explaining the concepts, defining the technical terms, and illustrating the utility of disease mapping for epidemiological research by demonstrating various ways of visualising model outputs using a case study. The target audience includes spatial scientists in health and other fields, policy or decision makers, health geographers, spatial analysts, public health professionals, and epidemiologists.

Visualisation of a 2′-5′ parallel stranded double helix at atomic resolution: crystal structure of cytidylyl-2′,5′-adenosine

X-ray crystallographlc studies on 3′–5′ ollgomers have provided a great deal of information on the stereochemistry and conformational flexibility of nucleic acids and polynucleotides. In contrast, there is very little Information available on 2′–5′ polynucleotides. We have now obtained the crystal structure of Cytidylyl-2′,5′-Adenoslne (C2′p5′A) at atomic resolution to establish the conformational differences between these two classes of polymers. The dlnucleoside phosphate crystallises in the monocllnlc space group C2, with a = 33.912(4)Å, b =16.824(4)Å, c = 12.898(2)Å and 0 = 112.35(1) with two molecules in the asymmetric unit. Spectacularly, the two independent C2′p5′A molecules in the asymmetric unit form right handed miniature parallel stranded double helices with their respective crystallographic two fold (b axis) symmetry mates. Remarkably, the two mini duplexes are almost indistinguishable. The cytosines and adenines form self-pairs with three and two hydrogen bonds respectively. The conformation of the C and A residues about the glycosyl bond is anti same as in the 3′–5′ analog but contrasts the anti and syn geometry of C and A residues in A2′p5′C. The furanose ring conformation is C3′endo, C2′endo mixed puckering as in the C3′p5′A-proflavine complex. A comparison of the backbone torsion angles with other 2′–5′ dinucleoside structures reveals that the major deviations occur in the torsion angles about the C3′–C2′ and C4′-C3′ bonds. A right-handed 2′–5′ parallel stranded double helix having eight base pairs per turn and 45° turn angle between them has been constructed using this dinucleoside phosphate as repeat unit. A discussion on 2′–5′ parallel stranded double helix and its relevance to biological systems is presented.

Spatial Data Mining and Modeling for visualisation of Rapid Urbanisation

Rapid urbanisation in India has posed serious challenges to the decision makers in regional planning involving plethora of issues including provision of basic amenities (like electricity, water, sanitation, transport, etc.). Urban planning entails an understanding of landscape and urban dynamics with causal factors. Identifying, delineating and mapping landscapes on temporal scale provide an opportunity to monitor the changes, which is important for natural resource management and sustainable planning activities. Multi-source, multi-sensor, multi-temporal, multi-frequency or multi-polarization remote sensing data with efficient classification algorithms and pattern recognition techniques aid in capturing these dynamics. This paper analyses the landscape dynamics of Greater Bangalore by: (i) characterisation of direct impervious surface, (ii) computation of forest fragmentation indices and (iii) modeling to quantify and categorise urban changes. Linear unmixing is used for solving the mixed pixel problem of coarse resolution super spectral MODIS data for impervious surface characterisation. Fragmentation indices were used to classify forests – interior, perforated, edge, transitional, patch and undetermined. Based on this, urban growth model was developed to determine the type of urban growth – Infill, Expansion and Outlying growth. This helped in visualising urban growth poles and consequence of earlier policy decisions that can help in evolving strategies for effective land use policies.

Using spectral information and machine vision for bruise detection on peaches and apricots

R. Zwiggelaar, Q. Yang, E. Garcia-Pardo and C.R. Bull, 'Using spectral information and machine vision for bruise detection on peaches and apricots', Journal of Agricultural Engineering Research 63 (4), 323-332 1996)

Summarising spatial and temporal information in CPR data

The Continuous Plankton Recorder survey provides pan-oceanic data on geographic distribution, species composition, seasonal cycles of abundance, and long-term change during the last 70 years. In this paper we compare and contrast some of the historic data-analytic protocols of the survey, focusing primarily on the various means by which spatio-temporal information in CPR data has been exposed. Relative strengths and limitations are assessed, followed by suggestions for future approaches to the visualisation and summarising of CPR data.

Spatial Allocation of Material Flow Analysis: A Geographic Information System Application of Material Flow Analysis in Ireland

This study concerns the spatial allocation of material flows, with emphasis on construction material in the Irish housing sector. It addresses some of the key issues concerning anthropogenic impact on the environment through spatial temporal visualisation of the flow of materials, wastes and emissions at different spatial levels. This is presented in the form of a spatial model, Spatial Allocation of Material Flow Analysis (SAMFA), which enables the simulation of construction material flows and associated energy use. SAMFA parallels the Island Limits project (EPA funded under 2004-SD-MS-22-M2), which aimed to create a material flow analysis of the Irish economy classified by industrial sector. SAMFA further develops this by attempting to establish the material flows at the subnational geographical scale that could be used in the development of local authority (LA) sustainability strategies and spatial planning frameworks by highlighting the cumulative environmental impacts of the development of the built environment. By drawing on the idea of planning support systems, SAMFA also aims to provide a cross-disciplinary, integrative medium for involving stakeholders in strategies for a sustainable built environment and, as such, would help illustrate the sustainability consequences of alternative The pilot run of the model in Kildare has shown that the model can be successfully calibrated and applied to develop alternative material flows and energy-use scenarios at the ED level. This has been demonstrated through the development of an integrated and a business-as-usual scenario, with the former integrating a range of potential material efficiency and energysaving policy options and the latter replicating conditions that best describe the current trend. Their comparison shows that the former is better than the latter in terms of both material and energy use. This report also identifies a number of potential areas of future research and areas of broader application. This includes improving the accuracy of the SAMFA model (e.g. by establishing actual life expectancy of buildings in the Irish context through field surveys) and the extension of the model to other Irish counties. This would establish SAMFA as a valuable predicting and monitoring tool that is capable of integrating national and local spatial planning objectives with actual environmental impacts. Furthermore, should the model prove successful at this level, it then has the potential to transfer the modelling approach to other areas of the built environment, such as commercial development and other key contributors of greenhouse emissions. The ultimate aim is to develop a meta-model for predicting the consequences of consumption patterns at the local scale. This therefore offers the possibility of creating critical links between socio technical systems with the most important challenge of all the limitations of the biophysical environment.

Intégration de la visualisation à multiples vues pour le développement du logiciel

Le développement du logiciel actuel doit faire face de plus en plus à la complexité de programmes gigantesques, élaborés et maintenus par de grandes équipes réparties dans divers lieux. Dans ses tâches régulières, chaque intervenant peut avoir à répondre à des questions variées en tirant des informations de sources diverses. Pour améliorer le rendement global du développement, nous proposons d'intégrer dans un IDE populaire (Eclipse) notre nouvel outil de visualisation (VERSO) qui calcule, organise, affiche et permet de naviguer dans les informations de façon cohérente, efficace et intuitive, afin de bénéficier du système visuel humain dans l'exploration de données variées. Nous proposons une structuration des informations selon trois axes : (1) le contexte (qualité, contrôle de version, bogues, etc.) détermine le type des informations ; (2) le niveau de granularité (ligne de code, méthode, classe, paquetage) dérive les informations au niveau de détails adéquat ; et (3) l'évolution extrait les informations de la version du logiciel désirée. Chaque vue du logiciel correspond à une coordonnée discrète selon ces trois axes, et nous portons une attention toute particulière à la cohérence en naviguant entre des vues adjacentes seulement, et ce, afin de diminuer la charge cognitive de recherches pour répondre aux questions des utilisateurs. Deux expériences valident l'intérêt de notre approche intégrée dans des tâches représentatives. Elles permettent de croire qu'un accès à diverses informations présentées de façon graphique et cohérente devrait grandement aider le développement du logiciel contemporain.

Utilisation de la visualisation interactive pour l’analyse des dépendances dans les logiciels

La compréhension de la structure d’un logiciel est une première étape importante dans la résolution de tâches d’analyse et de maintenance sur celui-ci. En plus des liens définis par la hiérarchie, il existe un autre type de liens entre les éléments du logiciel que nous appelons liens d’adjacence. Une compréhension complète d’un logiciel doit donc tenir compte de tous ces types de liens. Les outils de visualisation sont en général efficaces pour aider un développeur dans sa compréhension d’un logiciel en lui présentant l’information sous forme claire et concise. Cependant, la visualisation simultanée des liens hiérarchiques et d’adjacence peut donner lieu à beaucoup d’encombrement visuel, rendant ainsi ces visualisations peu efficaces pour fournir de l’information utile sur ces liens. Nous proposons dans ce mémoire un outil de visualisation 3D qui permet de représenter à la fois la structure hiérarchique d’un logiciel et les liens d’adjacence existant entre ses éléments. Notre outil utilise trois types de placements différents pour représenter la hiérarchie. Chacun peut supporter l’affichage des liens d’adjacence de manière efficace. Pour représenter les liens d’adjacence, nous proposons une version 3D de la méthode des Hierarchical Edge Bundles. Nous utilisons également un algorithme métaheuristique pour améliorer le placement afin de réduire davantage l’encombrement visuel dans les liens d’adjacence. D’autre part, notre outil offre un ensemble de possibilités d’interaction permettant à un usager de naviguer à travers l’information offerte par notre visualisation. Nos contributions ont été évaluées avec succès sur des systèmes logiciels de grande taille.

Nouveau support de visualisation spatio-temporelle pour faciliter l'exploration et le partage de données environnementales : SFMN GeoSearch : un outil pour la recherche en foresterie au Canada

Mémoire numérisé par la Division de la gestion de documents et des archives de l'Université de Montréal

Extraction automatique et visualisation des thèmes abordés dans des résumés de mémoires et de thèses en anthropologie au Québec, de 1985 à 2009

S’insérant dans les domaines de la Lecture et de l’Analyse de Textes Assistées par Ordinateur (LATAO), de la Gestion Électronique des Documents (GÉD), de la visualisation de l’information et, en partie, de l’anthropologie, cette recherche exploratoire propose l’expérimentation d’une méthodologie descriptive en fouille de textes afin de cartographier thématiquement un corpus de textes anthropologiques. Plus précisément, nous souhaitons éprouver la méthode de classification hiérarchique ascendante (CHA) pour extraire et analyser les thèmes issus de résumés de mémoires et de thèses octroyés de 1985 à 2009 (1240 résumés), par les départements d’anthropologie de l’Université de Montréal et de l’Université Laval, ainsi que le département d’histoire de l’Université Laval (pour les résumés archéologiques et ethnologiques). En première partie de mémoire, nous présentons notre cadre théorique, c'est-à-dire que nous expliquons ce qu’est la fouille de textes, ses origines, ses applications, les étapes méthodologiques puis, nous complétons avec une revue des principales publications. La deuxième partie est consacrée au cadre méthodologique et ainsi, nous abordons les différentes étapes par lesquelles ce projet fut conduit; la collecte des données, le filtrage linguistique, la classification automatique, pour en nommer que quelques-unes. Finalement, en dernière partie, nous présentons les résultats de notre recherche, en nous attardant plus particulièrement sur deux expérimentations. Nous abordons également la navigation thématique et les approches conceptuelles en thématisation, par exemple, en anthropologie, la dichotomie culture ̸ biologie. Nous terminons avec les limites de ce projet et les pistes d’intérêts pour de futures recherches.