La crise du logement en Algérie : des politiques d'urbanisme mésadaptées

La crise du logement est généralement appréhendée comme une simple disparité entre une disponibilité de logements abordables et les besoins de la population. Ce mémoire a pour objectif de dépasser ce raisonnement en s’interrogeant sur l’adéquation entre la conception des logements publics et les besoins des populations ciblées, qui sont déterminés par les spécificités socioculturelles en évolutions complexes et dynamiques. Des logements sociaux d’une grandeur inadéquate, pour des considérations de rentabilité, entraînant l’apparition d’une surpopulation, ne pouvaient qu’engendrer leur détérioration rapide et leur bidonvilisation. Ce mémoire aborde donc le thème anthropologique de l’influence de l’organisation de l’habitat et des espaces de vies privées et collectives sur les sociétés humaines. Le cas particulier de l’Algérie est intéressant par sa virulence et par l’importation des politiques françaises au moment de la colonisation, politiques visant l’assimilation des Algériens aux habitudes de consommation et aux modes de comportement occidentaux. Ce mémoire tente de démontrer que les différents gouvernements issus de l’indépendance auront réactivé les politiques coloniales en matière d’urbanisme. De plus, l’augmentation de la fréquence des pratiques informelles de captation à la source des biens stratégiques rares à des fins spéculatives, dont les logements sociaux, accélérée par la libéralisation du marché immobilier et la privatisation des logements publics, a fait en sorte que très peu de logements sociaux furent attribués aux familles qui en avaient besoin qui se retrouvèrent donc de plus en plus marginalisées et devaient à leur tour se tourner vers des pratiques informelles pour espérer améliorer leurs conditions de logement.

Análisis del ciclo económico en una economía con rigideces nominales y un amplio sector informal

En este trabajo se construye un modelo de Equilibrio General Dinámico Estocástico (DSGE) con sector informal y rigideces en precios, usando como marco de análisis la teoría de búsqueda y emparejamiento del mercado de trabajo. El objetivo principal es analizar el efecto de los diferentes tipos de choques económicos sobre las principales variables del mercado laboral, en una economía con presencia importante del sector informal. Igualmente se estudia el efecto de la política monetaria, ya que la presencia de este sector afecta la dinámica del ciclo económico, y por ende los mecanismos de transmisión de la política monetaria. En particular, se analiza la dinámica del modelo bajo diferentes reglas de política monetaria y se compara el bienestar agente representativo generado por cada una de estas reglas.

El mercado del suelo informal en favelas y la movilidad residencial de los pobres en las grandes metrópolis

Existe un gran vacío en los estudios urbanos, en particular de economía urbana, sobre el mercado informal de terrenos en las ciudades. La importancia actual de ese mercado y las perspectivas de su crecimiento futuro relacionadas con la evidente reducción de la ocupación (invasión) de tierras urbanas, imponen la urgencia de plantearlo como un objeto de estudio prioritario. El primer esfuerzo de investigación debe ser la construcción de bancos de datos e informaciones dinámicas sobre el mercado informal de tierras y de la movilidad residencial de los pobres. La pregunta que se debe formular sobre este mercado tiene que ver con sus similitudes y diferencias con respecto al mercado formal. Nuestra respuesta a este desafío se da en dos planos. El primero, a partir de un levantamiento empírico en las favelas de la ciudad de Río de Janeiro; el segundo tomando el mercado informal de tierras y la movilidad de los pobres urbanos como un objeto conceptual que permita re-problematizar temas tradicionales de la economía urbana ortodoxa (neoclásica). 

Informality in the City: a Theoretical Analysis

This thesis theoretically studies the relationship between the informal sector (both in the labor and the housing market) and the city structure.

The impact of buy to let residential investment on local housing markets: evidence from Glasgow, Scotland

The advent of the 'buy to let' (BTL) phenomenon in the UK. apart from producing a new wave of individualized rental market investment, has been widely judged to be a speculative and destabilizing force in the housing market. This paper provides a detailed empirical investigation of new residential investment in one city (Glasgow) where BTL has made a relatively large impact. In seeking to overcome data problems, the study employed qualitative (expert interviews and a landlord survey) and quantitative methods (census, the Register of Sasines, standardized house price information and modelling thereof) in order to assess the nature and scale of BTL, the motivations of investors and its impact on the private housing market. The evidence suggests that white Glasgow is in many re.spects different to rental markets elsewhere in the UK and although the investment has thus far largely occurred in a benign environment, the context for future investment, on balance, looks sustainable (i.e.favourable changes to pension planning law and the maturing market for BTL}. Long-term market impact is an empirical question that depends on the specific interactions of market niches or segments (i.e. the first-time buyer market for apartments} with potential buy to let investment. Our conclusion, to borrow a Scottish legal term, is that BTL induced volatility is 'not proven'.

EU housing markets: the role of institutional factors

Using cluster analysis this study reveals significant heterogeneity in the institutional characteristics of European mortgage markets. Distinct clusters are formed which can be related to differences in the mortgage credit system, the relative importance of the owner-occupation and the property specific fiscal system. The paper then tests for multiple structural breaks. We find evidence that structural breaks in European housing markets often coincide with a changes in housing market policy.

Spatial housing economics: a survey

This introduction to the Virtual Special Issue surveys the development of spatial housing economics from its roots in neo-classical theory, through more recent developments in social interactions modelling, and touching on the role of institutions, path dependence and economic history. The survey also points to some of the more promising future directions for the subject that are beginning to appear in the literature. The survey covers elements hedonic models, spatial econometrics, neighbourhood models, housing market areas, housing supply, models of segregation, migration, housing tenure, sub-national house price modelling including the so-called ripple effect, and agent-based models. Possible future directions are set in the context of a selection of recent papers that have appeared in Urban Studies. Nevertheless, there are still important gaps in the literature that merit further attention, arising at least partly from emerging policy problems. These include more research on housing and biodiversity, the relationship between housing and civil unrest, the effects of changing age distributions - notably housing for the elderly - and the impact of different international institutional structures. Methodologically, developments in Big Data provide an exciting framework for future work.

Are mortgage lenders guilty of the housing bubble? A UK perspective

Existing theoretical models of house prices and credit rely on continuous rationality of consumers, an assumption that has been frequently questioned in recent years. Meanwhile, empirical investigations of the relationship between prices and credit are often based on national-level data, which is then tested for structural breaks and asymmetric responses, usually with subsamples. Earlier author argues that local markets are structurally different from one another and so the coefficients of any estimated housing market model should vary from region to region. We investigate differences in the price–credit relationship for 12 regions of the UK. Markov-switching is introduced to capture asymmetric market behaviours and turning points. Results show that credit abundance had a large impact on house prices in Greater London and nearby regions alongside a strong positive feedback effect from past house price movements. This impact is even larger in Greater London and the South East of England when house prices are falling, which are the only instances where the credit effect is more prominent than the positive feedback effect. A strong positive feedback effect from past lending activity is also present in the loan dynamics. Furthermore, bubble probabilities extracted using a discrete Kalman filter neatly capture market turning points.

The Brazilian real state market in 2012: robust growth or speculative bubble?

A forte alta dos imóveis no Brasil nos últimos anos iniciou um debate sobre a possível existência de uma bolha especulativa. Dada a recente crise do crédito nos Estados Unidos, é factível questionar se a situação atual no Brasil pode ser comparada à crise americana. Considerando argumentos quantitativos e fundamentais, examina-se o contexto imobiliário brasileiro e questiona-se a sustentabilidade em um futuro próximo. Primeiramente, analisou-se a taxa de aluguel e o nível de acesso aos imóveis e também utilizou-se um modelo do custo real para ver se o mercado está em equilíbrio o não. Depois examinou-se alguns fatores fundamentais que afetam o preço dos imóveis – oferta e demanda, crédito e regulação, fatores culturais – para encontrar evidências que justificam o aumento dos preços dos imóveis. A partir dessas observações tentou-se chegar a uma conclusão sobre a evolução dos preços no mercado imobiliário brasileiro. Enquanto os dados sugerem que os preços dos imóveis estão supervalorizados em comparação ao preço dos aluguéis, há evidências de uma legítima demanda por novos imóveis na emergente classe média brasileira. Um risco maior pode estar no mercado de crédito, altamente alavancado em relação ao consumidor brasileiro. No entanto, não se encontrou evidências que sugerem mais do que uma temporária estabilização ou correção no preço dos imóveis.

Semiparametric modeling of the spatial distribution of occupational accident risk in the casual labor market, Piracicaba, southeast Brazil

The objective of this study was to estimate the spatial distribution of work accident risk in the informal work market in the urban zone of an industrialized city in southeast Brazil and to examine concomitant effects of age, gender, and type of occupation after controlling for spatial risk variation. The basic methodology adopted was that of a population-based case-control study with particular interest focused on the spatial location of work. Cases were all casual workers in the city suffering work accidents during a one-year period; controls were selected from the source population of casual laborers by systematic random sampling of urban homes. The spatial distribution of work accidents was estimated via a semiparametric generalized additive model with a nonparametric bidimensional spline of the geographical coordinates of cases and controls as the nonlinear spatial component, and including age, gender, and occupation as linear predictive variables in the parametric component. We analyzed 1,918 cases and 2,245 controls between 1/11/2003 and 31/10/2004 in Piracicaba, Brazil. Areas of significantly high and low accident risk were identified in relation to mean risk in the study region (p < 0.01). Work accident risk for informal workers varied significantly in the study area. Significant age, gender, and occupational group effects on accident risk were identified after correcting for this spatial variation. A good understanding of high-risk groups and high-risk regions underpins the formulation of hypotheses concerning accident causality and the development of effective public accident prevention policies.

Applications of GIS and remote sensing techniques for studying the housing patterns in Cairo Governorate

The main objective of this study is to reveal the housing patterns in Cairo as one of the most rapidly urbanizing city in the developing world. The study outlines the evolution of the housing problem and its influencing factors in Egypt generally and in Cairo specifically. The study takes into account the political transition from the national state economy to the open door policy, the neo-liberal period and finally to the housing situation after the January 2011 Revolution. The resulting housing patterns in Cairo Governorate were identified as (1) squatter settlements, (2) semi-informal settlements, (3) deteriorated inner pockets, and (4) formal settlements. rnThe study concluded that the housing patterns in Cairo are reflecting a multifaceted problem resulting in: (1) the imbalance between the high demand for affordable housing units for low-income families and the oversupply of upper-income housing, (2) the vast expansion of informal areas both on agricultural and desert lands, (3) the deterioration of the old parts of Cairo without upgrading or appropriate replacement of the housing structure, and (4) the high vacancy rate of newly constructed apartmentsrnThe evolution and development of the current housing problem were attributed to a number of factors. These factors are demographic factors represented in the rapid growth of the population associated with urbanization under the dictates of poverty, and the progressive increase of the prices of both buildable land and building materials. The study underlined that the current pattern of population density in Cairo Governorate is a direct result of the current housing problems. Around the depopulation core of the city, a ring of relatively stable areas in terms of population density has developed. Population densification, at the expense of the depopulation core, is characterizing the peripheries of the city. The population density in relation to the built-up area was examined using Landsat-7 ETM+ image (176/039). The image was acquired on 24 August 2006 and considered as an ideal source for land cover classification in Cairo since it is compatible with the population census 2006.rnConsidering that the socio-economic setting is a driving force of change of housing demand and that it is an outcome of the accumulated housing problems, the socio-economic deprivations of the inhabitants of Cairo Governorate are analyzed. Small administrative units in Cairo are categorized into four classes based on the Socio-Economic Opportunity Index (SEOI). This index is developed by using multiple domains focusing on the economic, educational and health situation of the residential population. The results show four levels of deprivation which are consistent with the existing housing patterns. Informal areas on state owned land are included in the first category, namely, the “severely deprived” level. Ex-formal areas or deteriorated inner pockets are characterized as “deprived” urban quarters. Semi-informal areas on agricultural land concentrate in the third category of “medium deprived” settlements. Formal or planned areas are included mostly in the fourth category of the “less deprived” parts of Cairo Governorate. rnFor a better understanding of the differences and similarities among the various housing patterns, four areas based on the smallest administrative units of shiakhat were selected for a detailed study. These areas are: (1) El-Ma’desa is representing a severely deprived squatter settlement, (2) Ain el-Sira is an example for an ex-formal deprived area, (3) El-Marg el-Qibliya was selected as a typical semi-informal and medium deprived settlement, and (4) El-Nozha is representing a formal and less deprived area.rnThe analysis at shiakhat level reveals how the socio-economic characteristics and the unregulated urban growth are greatly reflected in the morphological characteristics of the housing patterns in terms of street network and types of residential buildings as well as types of housing tenure. It is also reflected in the functional characteristics in terms of land use mix and its degree of compatibility. It is concluded that the provision and accessibility to public services represents a performance measure of the dysfunctional structure dominating squatter and semi-informal settlements on one hand and ample public services and accessibility in formal areas on the other hand.rn

Capital Accumulation in the Presence of Informal Credit Contracts: Does the Incentive Mechanism Work Better than Credit Rationing Under Asymmetric Information?

Credit markets with asymmetric information often prefer credit rationing as a profit maximizing device. This paper asks whether the presence of informal credit markets reduces the cost of credit rationing, that is, whether it can alleviate the impact of asymmetric information based on the available information. We used a dynamic general equilibrium model with heterogenous agents to assess this. Using Indian credit market data our study shows that the presence of informal credit market can reduce the cost of credit rationing by separating high risk firms from the low risk firms in the informal market. But even after this improvement, the steady state capital accumulation is still much lower as compared to incentive based market clearing rates. Through self revelation of each firm's type, based on the incentive mechanism, banks can diversify their risk by achieving a separating equilibrium in the loan market. The incentive mechanism helps banks to increase capital accumulation in the long run by charging lower rates and lending relatively higher amount to the less risky firms. Another important finding of this study is that self-revelation leads to very significant welfare improvement, as measured by consumptiuon equivalence.

Housing Discrimination in Metropolitan America: Findings from the Latest National Paired Testing Study

During the summer and fall of 2000, local fair housing organizations in twenty major metropolitan areas nationwide conducted a total of 4,600 paired tests, directly comparing the treatment that African Americans and Hispanics receive to the treatment that whites receive when they visit real estate or rental offices to inquire about available housing. This study, which was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and conducted by the Urban Institute, provides the most complete and up-to-date information available about the persistence of housing market discrimination against African American and Hispanic homeseekers in large urban areas of the United States today and about the progress we have made in combating discrimination over the last decade.

Schools and Housing Markets: An Examination of School Segregation and Performance in Connecticut

This paper examines the relationship between house price levels, school performance, and the racial and ethnic composition of Connecticut school districts between 1995 and 2000. A panel of Connecticut school districts over both time and labor market areas is used to estimate a simultaneous equations model describing the determinants of these variables. Specifically, school district changes in price level, school performance, and racial and ethnic compositions depend upon each other, labor market wide changes in these variables, and the deviation of each school district from the overall metropolitan area. The specification is based on the differencing of dependent variables, as opposed to the use of level or fixed effects models and lagging level variables beyond the period over which change is considered; as a result the model is robust to persistence in the sample. Identification of the simultaneous system arises from the presence of multiple labor market areas in the sample, and the assumption that labor market changes in a variable due not directly influence the allocation of households across towns within a labor market area. We find that towns in labor markets that experience an inflow of minority households have greater increases in percent minority if those towns already ahve a substantial minoritypopulation. We find evidence that this sorting proces is reflected in housing price changes in the low priced segment of the housing market, not in the middle and upper segments.

Fair Housing Enforcement and Changes in Discrimination between 1989 and 2000: An Exploratory Study

Using paired testing data from the 1989 and 2000 Housing Discrimination Studies (HDS) and data on fair housing enforcement activities during the 1990s in the corresponding metro areas, we investigate whether 1989-2000 changes in the metropolitan incidence of racial/ethnic discrimination correlate with fair housing enforcement activity during the 1990s. We found that higher amounts of state and local enforcement activity supported by HUD through its FHIP and FHAP programs (especially the amount of dollars awarded by the courts) were consistently associated with greater declines in discrimination against black apartment-seekers and home-seekers. The evidence does not support similar conclusions for housing market discrimination against Hispanics where the level of enforcement is much lower.