Individual Decision-Making and Inflation Persistence

The traditional task of a central bank is to preserve price stability and, in doing so, not to impair the real economy more than necessary. To meet this challenge, it is of great relevance whether inflation is only driven by inflation expectations and the current output gap or whether it is, in addition, influenced by past inflation. In the former case, as described by the New Keynesian Phillips curve, the central bank can immediately and simultaneously achieve price stability and equilibrium output, the so-called ‘divine coincidence’ (Blanchard and Galí 2007). In the latter case, the achievement of price stability is costly in terms of output and will be pursued over several periods. Similarly, it is important to distinguish this latter case, which describes ‘intrinsic’ inflation persistence, from that of ‘extrinsic’ inflation persistence, where the sluggishness of inflation is not a ‘structural’ feature of the economy but merely ‘inherited’ from the sluggishness of the other driving forces, inflation expectations and output. ‘Extrinsic’ inflation persistence is usually considered to be the less challenging case, as policy-makers are supposed to fight against the persistence in the driving forces, especially to reduce the stickiness of inflation expectations by a credible monetary policy, in order to reestablish the ‘divine coincidence’. The scope of this dissertation is to contribute to the vast literature and ongoing discussion on inflation persistence: Chapter 1 describes the policy consequences of inflation persistence and summarizes the empirical and theoretical literature. Chapter 2 compares two models of staggered price setting, one with a fixed two-period duration and the other with a stochastic duration of prices. I show that in an economy with a timeless optimizing central bank the model with the two-period alternating price-setting (for most parameter values) leads to more persistent inflation than the model with stochastic price duration. This result amends earlier work by Kiley (2002) who found that the model with stochastic price duration generates more persistent inflation in response to an exogenous monetary shock. Chapter 3 extends the two-period alternating price-setting model to the case of 3- and 4-period price durations. This results in a more complex Phillips curve with a negative impact of past inflation on current inflation. As simulations show, this multi-period Phillips curve generates a too low degree of autocorrelation and too early turnings points of inflation and is outperformed by a simple Hybrid Phillips curve. Chapter 4 starts from the critique of Driscoll and Holden (2003) on the relative real-wage model of Fuhrer and Moore (1995). While taking the critique seriously that Fuhrer and Moore’s model will collapse to a much simpler one without intrinsic inflation persistence if one takes their arguments literally, I extend the model by a term for inequality aversion. This model extension is not only in line with experimental evidence but results in a Hybrid Phillips curve with inflation persistence that is observably equivalent to that presented by Fuhrer and Moore (1995). In chapter 5, I present a model that especially allows to study the relationship between fairness attitudes and time preference (impatience). In the model, two individuals take decisions in two subsequent periods. In period 1, both individuals are endowed with resources and are able to donate a share of their resources to the other individual. In period 2, the two individuals might join in a common production after having bargained on the split of its output. The size of the production output depends on the relative share of resources at the end of period 1 as the human capital of the individuals, which is built by means of their resources, cannot fully be substituted one against each other. Therefore, it might be rational for a well-endowed individual in period 1 to act in a seemingly ‘fair’ manner and to donate own resources to its poorer counterpart. This decision also depends on the individuals’ impatience which is induced by the small but positive probability that production is not possible in period 2. As a general result, the individuals in the model economy are more likely to behave in a ‘fair’ manner, i.e., to donate resources to the other individual, the lower their own impatience and the higher the productivity of the other individual. As the (seemingly) ‘fair’ behavior is modelled as an endogenous outcome and as it is related to the aspect of time preference, the presented framework might help to further integrate behavioral economics and macroeconomics.

Frying of potato chips in a blend of canola oil and palm olein: changes in levels of individual fatty acids and tocols

The changes occurring in the levels of nutritionally relevant oil components were assessed during repeated frying of potato chips in a blend of palm olein and canola oil (1:1 w/w). The blend suffered minimal reductions in omega-3 and omega-6 polyunsaturated fatty acids. There was no significant difference between the fatty acid composition of the oil extracted from the product and that of the frying medium, in all three cases. The blend also contained a significant amount of tocols which add a nutritional value to the oil. The concentration of the tocols was satisfactorily retained over the period of oil usage, in contrast to the significant loses observed in the case of the individual oils. The blend also performed well when assessed by changes in total polar compounds, free fatty acids, p-anisidine value. When fried in used oil, the product oil content increased progressively with oil usage time. This study shows that blended frying oils can combine good stability and nutritional quality

Small states, great power? Gaining influence through intrinsic, derivative, and collective power

In recent years, scholars have devoted increased attention to the agency of small states in International Relations. However, the conventional wisdom remains that while not completely powerful, small states are unlikely to achieve much of significance when faced by great power opposition. This argument, however, implicitly rests on resource-based and compulsory understandings of power. This article explores the implicit connections between the concept of "small state" and diverse concepts of power, asking how we should understand these states' attempts to gain influence and achieve their international political objectives. By connecting the study of small states with additional understandings of power, the article elaborates the broader avenues for influence that are open to many states but are particularly relevant for small states. The article argues that small states' power can be best understood as originating in three categories: “derivative,” collective, and particular-intrinsic. Derivative power, coined by Michael Handel, relies upon the relationship with a great power. Collective power involves building coalitions of supportive states, often through institutions. Particular-intrinsic power relies on the assets of the small state trying to do the influencing. Small states specialize in the bases and means of these types of power, which may have unconventional compulsory, institutional, structural, and productive aspects.

Wickedness, Governance and Collective Sanctions: : Can Corruption be Tamed?

Tackling a problem requires mostly, an ability to read it, conceptualize it, represent it, define it, and then applying the necessary mechanisms to solve it. This may sound self-evident except when the problem to be tackled happens to be “complex, “ “ill-structured,” and/or “wicked.” Corruption is one of those kinds of problems. Both in its global and national manifestations it is ill-structured. Where it is structural in nature, endemic and pervasive, it is perhaps even wicked. Qualities of the kind impose modest expectations regarding possibilities of any definitive solution to this insidious phenomenon. If so, it may not suffice to address the problem of corruption using existing categories of law and/or good governance, which overlook the “long-term memory” of the collective and cultural specific dimensions of the subject. Such socio-historical conditions require focusing on the interactive and self-reproducing networks of corruption and attempting to ‘subvert’ that phenomenon’s entire matrix. Concepts such as collective responsibility, collective punishment and sanctions are introduced as relevant categories in the structural, as well as behavioral, subversion of some of the most prevalent aspects of corruption. These concepts may help in the evolving of a new perspective on corruption fighting strategies.

Corruption, governance and collective sanctions: : can a wicked problem be tamed?

Tackling a problem requires mostly, an ability to read it, conceptualize it, represent it, define it, and then applying the necessary mechanisms to solve it. This may sound self-evident except when the problem to be tackled happens to be “complex, “ “ill-structured,” and/or “wicked.” Corruption is one of those kinds of problems. Both in its global and national manifestations it is ill-structured. Where it is structural in nature, endemic and pervasive, it is perhaps even wicked. Qualities of the kind impose modest expectations regarding possibilities of any definitive solution to this insidious phenomenon. If so, it may not suffice to address the problem of corruption using existing categories of law and/or good governance, which overlook the “long-term memory” of the collective and cultural specific dimensions of the subject. Such socio-historical conditions require focusing on the interactive and self-reproducing networks of corruption and attempting to ‘subvert’ that phenomenon’s entire matrix. Concepts such as collective responsibility, collective punishment and sanctions are introduced as relevant categories in the structural, as well as behavioral, subversion of some of the most prevalent aspects of corruption. These concepts may help in the evolving of a new perspective on corruption fighting strategies.

Individual, family, school, and community risk and protective factors for depressive symptoms in adolescents : a comparison of risk profiles for substance use and depressive symptoms

This study examines the relationship between adolescent depressive symptoms and risk and protective factors identified for substance use. A questionnaire, developed to measure these factors in a young persons community, family, school, peer group, and individual characteristics for substance use, was used to assess associations with self-reported depressive symptoms. Data were provided by a representative sample of 8984 secondary school students in Victoria, Australia. The prevalence of depressive symptoms was 10.5% (95% CI 9.2,12.0) for males and 21.7% (95% CI 20.3,23.7) for females. Depressive symptoms were associated with factors in all domains, with the strongest associations in the family domain. Strong relationships were found between the number of elevated risk and protective factors and depressive symptoms, maintained after adjusting for substance use. Patterns of associations were similar for users and nonsubstance users. The findings indicate that prevention programs targeting factors for substance use have the potential to impact on depression.

Selecting the individual numerical scale and prioritization method in the analytic hierarchy process : a 2-tuple fuzzy linguistic approach

The validity of the priority vector used in the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) relies on two factors: the selection of a numerical scale and the selection of a prioritization method. The traditional AHP selects only one numerical scale (e.g., the Saaty scale) and one prioritization method (e.g., the eigenvector method) for each particular problem. For this traditional selection approach, there is disagreement on which numerical scale and prioritization method is better in deriving a priority vector. In fact, the best numerical scale and the best prioritization method both rely on the content of the pairwise comparison data provided by the AHP decision makers. By defining a set of concepts regarding the scale function and the linguistic pairwise comparison matrices (LPCMs) of the priority vector and by using LPCMs to unify the format of the input and output of AHP, this paper extends the AHP prioritization process under the 2-tuple fuzzy linguistic model. Based on the extended AHP prioritization process, we present two performance measure criteria to evaluate the effect of the numerical scales and prioritization methods. We also use the performance measure criteria to develop a 2-tuple fuzzy linguistic multicriteria approach to select the best numerical scales and the best prioritization methods for different LPCMs. In this paper, we call this type of selection the individual selection of the numerical scale and prioritization method. We also compare this individual selection with traditional selection by using both random and real data and show better results with individual selection.

Does the choice of neighbourhood supermarket access measure influence associations with individual-level fruit and vegetable consumption? A case study from Glasgow

Background
Previous studies have provided mixed evidence with regards to associations between food store access and dietary outcomes. This study examines the most commonly applied measures of locational access to assess whether associations between supermarket access and fruit and vegetable consumption are affected by the choice of access measure and scale.

Method
Supermarket location data from Glasgow, UK (n = 119), and fruit and vegetable intake data from the 'Health and Well-Being' Survey (n = 1041) were used to compare various measures of locational access. These exposure variables included proximity estimates (with different points-of-origin used to vary levels of aggregation) and density measures using three approaches (Euclidean and road network buffers and Kernel density estimation) at distances ranging from 0.4 km to 5 km. Further analysis was conducted to assess the impact of using smaller buffer sizes for individuals who did not own a car. Associations between these multiple access measures and fruit and vegetable consumption were estimated using linear regression models.

Results
Levels of spatial aggregation did not impact on the proximity estimates. Counts of supermarkets within Euclidean buffers were associated with fruit and vegetable consumption at 1 km, 2 km and 3 km, and for our road network buffers at 2 km, 3 km, and 4 km. Kernel density estimates provided the strongest associations and were significant at a distance of 2 km, 3 km, 4 km and 5 km. Presence of a supermarket within 0.4 km of road network distance from where people lived was positively associated with fruit consumption amongst those without a car (coef. 0.657; s.e. 0.247; p0.008).

Conclusions
The associations between locational access to supermarkets and individual-level dietary behaviour are sensitive to the method by which the food environment variable is captured. Care needs to be taken to ensure robust and conceptually appropriate measures of access are used and these should be grounded in a clear a priori reasoning.

Illness in old age is part of an individual's fate and must be approached with acceptance

Older members of the Greek community see aging and the ill health that may accompany it as an inevitable part of life. They associate illness very closely with God’s will, and largely believe their state of health is an aspect of fate and / or luck that they do not have control over and must simply accept. This paper, based on research conducted in Melbourne, Australia, describes the way in which the experience of old age is understood in the worldview of this group. The words fate and luck (τύχη = tyche; γραφτό = graphto) are often used by older Greeks to characterize their situation. Luck, to this group, is not random. The term (τύχη) was used in classical times to refer to a kind of minor deity that controlled the fortune of the Greek city states, and an element of this idea of intention remains today. In the modern context, luck comes from God, and for this group, is part of γραφτό, or destiny, something that is written. In its usual usage in Greek, γραφτό refers to something that must happen to a person because it is predetermined and cannot not occur. The meaning that these older Greek individuals give to the word luck in the modern world is manifested in their acceptance of the problems of aging and their approach to coping with their own experience.

Impact of individual coping strategies and organisational work–life balance programmes on Australian employee well-being

This paper examines several individual coping strategies and employees' perception of organisational provision of work–life balance (WLB) programmes with a sample of 700 Australian employees. The combined effects of individual coping strategies and organisational provision of WLB programmes on employee affective well-being are examined, using structural equation modelling. Results indicate that individuals with positive attitudes and life coping strategies were more capable of achieving overall well-being. Both monetary- and non-monetary-based organisational WLB provision had no direct association with employee well-being, but had indirect effects via individual coping strategies to help employees achieve better well-being. Employee well-being was found to have a stronger association with individual effort than organisational deliberation in providing WLB programmes. Theoretical and practical implications of these study outcomes are discussed.

Individual, school-related and family characteristics distinguish co-occurrence of drinking and depressive symptoms in very young adolescents

INTRODUCTION AND AIMS: Alcohol misuse and depressed mood are common during early adolescence, and comorbidity of these conditions in adulthood is associated with poorer health and social outcomes, yet little research has examined the co-occurrence of these problems at early adolescence. This study assessed risky and protective characteristics of pre-teens with concurrent depressed mood/early alcohol use in a large school-based sample. DESIGN AND METHODS: School children aged 10-14 years (n = 7289) from late primary and early secondary school classes in government, Catholic and independent sectors participated with parental consent in the cross-sectional Healthy Neighbourhoods Study. Key measures included depressed mood, recent alcohol use, school mobility, family relationship quality, school engagement and coping style. Multinomial logistic regression analyses were used to identify school and family-related factors that distinguished those with co-occurring drinking and depressive symptoms from those with either single condition. Gender and school-level interactions for each factor were evaluated. RESULTS: Co-occurring conditions were reported by 5.7% of students [confidence interval (CI)95 5.19, 6.19]. Recent drinkers were more likely than non-drinkers to have symptoms consistent with depression (odds ratio 1.80; CI95 1.58, 2.03). Low school commitment was associated with co-occurring drinking/depressive symptoms (odds ratio 2.86; CI95 2.25, 3.65 compared with null condition). This association appeared to be weaker in the presence of adaptive stress-coping skills (odds ratio 0.18; CI95 0.14, 0.23). CONCLUSIONS: We have identified factors that distinguish pre-teens with very early co-occurrence of drinking and depressed mood, and protective factors with potential utility for school-based prevention programmes targeting these conditions. [Salom CL, Kelly AB, Alati R, Williams GM, Patton GC, Williams JW. Individual, school-related and family characteristics distinguish co-occurrence of drinking and depressive symptoms in very young adolescents. Drug Alcohol Rev 2015].