A atuação internacional do Brasil para as mudanças climáticas: as COP de 2009 a 2015

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

The application of principal component analysis on human development indicators: Temporal approach from 1999 to 2010

Background and Objective. Ever since the human development index was published in 1990 by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), many researchers started searching and corporative studying for more effective methods to measure the human development. Published in 1999, Lai’s “Temporal analysis of human development indicators: principal component approach” provided a valuable statistical way on human developmental analysis. This study presented in the thesis is the extension of Lai’s 1999 research. ^ Methods. I used the weighted principal component method on the human development indicators to measure and analyze the progress of human development in about 180 countries around the world from the year 1999 to 2010. The association of the main principal component obtained from the study and the human development index reported by the UNDP was estimated by the Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient. The main principal component was then further applied to quantify the temporal changes of the human development of selected countries by the proposed Z-test. ^ Results. The weighted means of all three human development indicators, health, knowledge, and standard of living, were increased from 1999 to 2010. The weighted standard deviation for GDP per capita was also increased across years indicated the rising inequality of standard of living among countries. The ranking of low development countries by the main principal component (MPC) is very similar to that by the human development index (HDI). Considerable discrepancy between MPC and HDI ranking was found among high development countries with high GDP per capita shifted to higher ranks. The Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient between the main principal component and the human development index were all around 0.99. All the above results were very close to outcomes in Lai’s 1999 report. The Z test result on temporal analysis of main principal components from 1999 to 2010 on Qatar was statistically significant, but not on other selected countries, such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, and U.S.A.^ Conclusion. To synthesize the multi-dimensional measurement of human development into a single index, the weighted principal component method provides a good model by using the statistical tool on a comprehensive ranking and measurement. Since the weighted main principle component index is more objective because of using population of nations as weight, more effective when the analysis is across time and space, and more flexible when the countries reported to the system has been changed year after year. Thus, in conclusion, the index generated by using weighted main principle component has some advantage over the human development index created in UNDP reports.^

Los BRICS. El surgimiento de un proyecto de nueva arquitectura financiera y de un nuevo mundo multipolar (2009-2014)

En el presente trabajo, se busca indagar en las disputas de proyectos estratégicos a nivel mundial que se profundizan a partir de la crisis financiera global desatada en 2008. En este marco, comienza a plantearse desde distintos sectores económicos, políticos e intelectuales una crítica al sistema mundial heredado de Bretton Woods, al calor del surgimiento de nuevos espacios de poder que plantean la necesidad de avanzar hacia la conformación de un mundo "multipolar", superando la hegemonía norteamericana y europea. En este marco, la aparición en escena de los países denominados "BRICS" (Brasil, Rusia, India, China y Sudáfrica) plantea nuevos interrogantes sobre la coyuntura política actual y sobre la continuidad de la hegemonía trilateral global clásica (Estados Unidos, Europa, Japón). Este trabajo se propondrá analizar el proceso de configuración de los BRICS en el escenario geopolítico general sobre el cual se construye, e indagar en las dimensiones territoriales, políticas, económicas y estratégicas de la integración. Además, buscaremos explorar en los debates que emergen al interior del bloque en torno a las estrategias y modalidades de la integración, intentando dar cuenta de los actores que las promueven, bajo que concepciones, con qué objetivos, que conflictos se suscitan y qué condiciones se observan. Finalmente, nos propondremos indagar algunos alcances económicos, políticos y sociales del proyecto de los BRICS, a partir de las conclusiones emanadas de la VI Cumbre anual del bloque, realizada en Fortaleza, Brasil, entre el 14 y el 16 de julio de 2014

Los BRICS. El surgimiento de un proyecto de nueva arquitectura financiera y de un nuevo mundo multipolar (2009-2014)

En el presente trabajo, se busca indagar en las disputas de proyectos estratégicos a nivel mundial que se profundizan a partir de la crisis financiera global desatada en 2008. En este marco, comienza a plantearse desde distintos sectores económicos, políticos e intelectuales una crítica al sistema mundial heredado de Bretton Woods, al calor del surgimiento de nuevos espacios de poder que plantean la necesidad de avanzar hacia la conformación de un mundo "multipolar", superando la hegemonía norteamericana y europea. En este marco, la aparición en escena de los países denominados "BRICS" (Brasil, Rusia, India, China y Sudáfrica) plantea nuevos interrogantes sobre la coyuntura política actual y sobre la continuidad de la hegemonía trilateral global clásica (Estados Unidos, Europa, Japón). Este trabajo se propondrá analizar el proceso de configuración de los BRICS en el escenario geopolítico general sobre el cual se construye, e indagar en las dimensiones territoriales, políticas, económicas y estratégicas de la integración. Además, buscaremos explorar en los debates que emergen al interior del bloque en torno a las estrategias y modalidades de la integración, intentando dar cuenta de los actores que las promueven, bajo que concepciones, con qué objetivos, que conflictos se suscitan y qué condiciones se observan. Finalmente, nos propondremos indagar algunos alcances económicos, políticos y sociales del proyecto de los BRICS, a partir de las conclusiones emanadas de la VI Cumbre anual del bloque, realizada en Fortaleza, Brasil, entre el 14 y el 16 de julio de 2014

Spillover effects of TTIP on BRICS economies : a dynamic GVC-based CGE model

This paper uses a GVC (Global Value Chain)-based CGE model to assess the impact of TTIP between the U.S. and the EU on their main trading partners who are mainly engaged at the low end in the division system of global value chains, such as BRICS countries. The simulation results indicate that in general the TTIP would positively impact global trade and economies due to the reduction of both tariff and non-tariff barriers. With great increases in the US–EU bilateral trade, significant economic gains for the U.S. and the EU can be expected. For most BRICS countries, the aggregate exports and GDP suffer small negative impacts from the TTIP, except Brazil, but the inter-country trade within BRICS economies increases due to the substitution effect between the US–EU trade and the imports from BRICS countries when the TTIP commences.

Climate change technology transfer to developing countries: evidence analysis and policy recommendations

Developing countries are experiencing unprecedented levels of economic growth. As a result, they will be responsible for most of the future growth in energy demand and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Curbing GHG emissions in developing countries has become one of the cornerstones of a future international agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change (UNFCCC). However, setting caps for developing countries’ GHG emissions has encountered strong resistance in the current round of negotiations. Continued economic growth that allows poverty eradication is still the main priority for most developing countries, and caps are perceived as a constraint to future growth prospects. The development, transfer and use of low-carbon technologies have more positive connotations, and are seen as the potential path towards low-carbon development. So far, the success of the UNFCCC process in improving the levels of technology transfer (TT) to developing countries has been limited. This thesis analyses the causes for such limited success and seeks to improve on the understanding about what constitutes TT in the field of climate change, establish the factors that enable them in developing countries and determine which policies could be implemented to reinforce these factors. Despite the wide recognition of the importance of technology and knowledge transfer to developing countries in the climate change mitigation policy agenda, this issue has not received sufficient attention in academic research. Current definitions of climate change TT barely take into account the perspective of actors involved in actual climate change TT activities, while respective measurements do not bear in mind the diversity of channels through which these happen and the outputs and effects that they convey. Furthermore, the enabling factors for TT in non-BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) developing countries have been seldom investigated, and policy recommendations to improve the level and quality of TTs to developing countries have not been adapted to the specific needs of highly heterogeneous countries, commonly denominated as “developing countries”. This thesis contributes to enriching the climate change TT debate from the perspective of a smaller emerging economy (Chile) and by undertaking a quantitative analysis of enabling factors for TT in a large sample of developing countries. Two methodological approaches are used to study climate change TT: comparative case study analysis and quantitative analysis. Comparative case studies analyse TT processes in ten cases based in Chile, all of which share the same economic, technological and policy frameworks, thus enabling us to draw conclusions on the enabling factors and obstacles operating in TT processes. The quantitative analysis uses three methodologies – principal component analysis, multiple regression analysis and cluster analysis – to assess the performance of developing countries in a number of enabling factors and the relationship between these factors and indicators of TT, as well as to create groups of developing countries with similar performances. The findings of this thesis are structured to provide responses to four main research questions: What constitutes technology transfer and how does it happen? Is it possible to measure technology transfer, and what are the main challenges in doing so? Which factors enable climate change technology transfer to developing countries? And how do different developing countries perform in these enabling factors, and how can differentiated policy priorities be defined accordingly? vi Resumen Los paises en desarrollo estan experimentando niveles de crecimiento economico sin precedentes. Como consecuencia, se espera que sean responsables de la mayor parte del futuro crecimiento global en demanda energetica y emisiones de Gases de Efecto de Invernadero (GEI). Reducir las emisiones de GEI en los paises en desarrollo es por tanto uno de los pilares de un futuro acuerdo internacional en el marco de la Convencion Marco de las Naciones Unidas para el Cambio Climatico (UNFCCC). La posibilidad de compromisos vinculantes de reduccion de emisiones de GEI ha sido rechazada por los paises en desarrollo, que perciben estos limites como frenos a su desarrollo economico y a su prioridad principal de erradicacion de la pobreza. El desarrollo, transferencia y uso de tecnologias bajas en carbono tiene connotaciones mas positivas y se percibe como la via hacia un crecimiento bajo en carbono. Hasta el momento, la UNFCCC ha tenido un exito limitado en la promocion de transferencias de tecnologia (TT) a paises en desarrollo. Esta tesis analiza las causas de este resultado y busca mejorar la comprension sobre que constituye transferencia de tecnologia en el area de cambio climatico, cuales son los factores que la facilitan en paises en desarrollo y que politicas podrian implementarse para reforzar dichos factores. A pesar del extendido reconocimiento sobre la importancia de la transferencia de tecnologia a paises en desarrollo en la agenda politica de cambio climatico, esta cuestion no ha sido suficientemente atendida por la investigacion existente. Las definiciones actuales de transferencia de tecnologia relacionada con la mitigacion del cambio climatico no tienen en cuenta la diversidad de canales por las que se manifiestan o los efectos que consiguen. Los factores facilitadores de TT en paises en desarrollo no BRIC (Brasil, Rusia, India y China) apenas han sido investigados, y las recomendaciones politicas para aumentar el nivel y la calidad de la TT no se han adaptado a las necesidades especificas de paises muy heterogeneos aglutinados bajo el denominado grupo de "paises en desarrollo". Esta tesis contribuye a enriquecer el debate sobre la TT de cambio climatico con la perspectiva de una economia emergente de pequeno tamano (Chile) y el analisis cuantitativo de factores que facilitan la TT en una amplia muestra de paises en desarrollo. Se utilizan dos metodologias para el estudio de la TT a paises en desarrollo: analisis comparativo de casos de estudio y analisis cuantitativo basado en metodos multivariantes. Los casos de estudio analizan procesos de TT en diez casos basados en Chile, para derivar conclusiones sobre los factores que facilitan u obstaculizan el proceso de transferencia. El analisis cuantitativo multivariante utiliza tres metodologias: regresion multiple, analisis de componentes principales y analisis cluster. Con dichas metodologias se busca analizar el posicionamiento de diversos paises en cuanto a factores que facilitan la TT; las relaciones entre dichos factores e indicadores de transferencia tecnologica; y crear grupos de paises con caracteristicas similares que podrian beneficiarse de politicas similares para la promocion de la transferencia de tecnologia. Los resultados de la tesis se estructuran en torno a cuatro preguntas de investigacion: .Que es la transferencia de tecnologia y como ocurre?; .Es posible medir la transferencia de tecnologias de bajo carbono?; .Que factores facilitan la transferencia de tecnologias de bajo carbono a paises en desarrollo? y .Como se puede agrupar a los paises en desarrollo en funcion de sus necesidades politicas para la promocion de la transferencia de tecnologias de bajo carbono?

Burma, 1824 (Image 1 of 4) (Raster Image)

This layer is a georeferenced raster image of the historic paper map entitled: Geographical sketch of the Burmese Empire, drawn by H. Hamilton ; compiled at the office of the Surveyor General of India. It was published by Published at the Asiatic Lithographic Press in 1825. Scale [ca. 1:1,010,000]. This layer is image 1 of 4 total images of the four sheet source map, representing the north portion of the map. Covers Burma and bordering portions of India, Bangladesh, Thailand, and China.The image inside the map neatline is georeferenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the Asia North Lambert Conformal Conic coordinate system. All map collar and inset information is also available as part of the raster image, including any inset maps, profiles, statistical tables, directories, text, illustrations, index maps, legends, or other information associated with the principal map. This map shows features such as drainage, roads, cities and other human settlements, fortifications, territorial boundaries, shoreline features, ground cover, temples, and more. Relief shown by hachures. Includes also glossary and notes on the construction of the sketch and table of estimated road distances.This layer is part of a selection of digitally scanned and georeferenced historic maps from the Harvard Map Collection. These maps typically portray both natural and manmade features. The selection represents a range of originators, ground condition dates, scales, and map purposes.

Burma, 1824 (Image 2 of 4) (Raster Image)

This layer is a georeferenced raster image of the historic paper map entitled: Geographical sketch of the Burmese Empire, drawn by H. Hamilton ; compiled at the office of the Surveyor General of India. It was published by Published at the Asiatic Lithographic Press in 1825. Scale [ca. 1:1,010,000]. This layer is image 2 of 4 total images of the four sheet source map, representing the central north portion of the map. Covers Burma and bordering portions of India, Bangladesh, Thailand, and China.The image inside the map neatline is georeferenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the Asia North Lambert Conformal Conic coordinate system. All map collar and inset information is also available as part of the raster image, including any inset maps, profiles, statistical tables, directories, text, illustrations, index maps, legends, or other information associated with the principal map. This map shows features such as drainage, roads, cities and other human settlements, fortifications, territorial boundaries, shoreline features, ground cover, temples, and more. Relief shown by hachures. Includes also glossary and notes on the construction of the sketch and table of estimated road distances.This layer is part of a selection of digitally scanned and georeferenced historic maps from the Harvard Map Collection. These maps typically portray both natural and manmade features. The selection represents a range of originators, ground condition dates, scales, and map purposes.

Burma, 1824 (Image 3 of 4) (Raster Image)

This layer is a georeferenced raster image of the historic paper map entitled: Geographical sketch of the Burmese Empire, drawn by H. Hamilton ; compiled at the office of the Surveyor General of India. It was published by Published at the Asiatic Lithographic Press in 1825. Scale [ca. 1:1,010,000]. This layer is image 3 of 4 total images of the four sheet source map, representing the central south portion of the map. Covers Burma and bordering portions of India, Bangladesh, Thailand, and China.The image inside the map neatline is georeferenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the Asia North Lambert Conformal Conic coordinate system. All map collar and inset information is also available as part of the raster image, including any inset maps, profiles, statistical tables, directories, text, illustrations, index maps, legends, or other information associated with the principal map. This map shows features such as drainage, roads, cities and other human settlements, fortifications, territorial boundaries, shoreline features, ground cover, temples, and more. Relief shown by hachures. Includes also glossary and notes on the construction of the sketch and table of estimated road distances.This layer is part of a selection of digitally scanned and georeferenced historic maps from the Harvard Map Collection. These maps typically portray both natural and manmade features. The selection represents a range of originators, ground condition dates, scales, and map purposes.

Burma, 1824 (Image 4 of 4) (Raster Image)

This layer is a georeferenced raster image of the historic paper map entitled: Geographical sketch of the Burmese Empire, drawn by H. Hamilton ; compiled at the office of the Surveyor General of India. It was published by Published at the Asiatic Lithographic Press in 1825. Scale [ca. 1:1,010,000]. This layer is image 4 of 4 total images of the four sheet source map, representing the south portion of the map. Covers Burma and bordering portions of India, Bangladesh, Thailand, and China.The image inside the map neatline is georeferenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the Asia North Lambert Conformal Conic coordinate system. All map collar and inset information is also available as part of the raster image, including any inset maps, profiles, statistical tables, directories, text, illustrations, index maps, legends, or other information associated with the principal map. This map shows features such as drainage, roads, cities and other human settlements, fortifications, territorial boundaries, shoreline features, ground cover, temples, and more. Relief shown by hachures. Includes also glossary and notes on the construction of the sketch and table of estimated road distances.This layer is part of a selection of digitally scanned and georeferenced historic maps from the Harvard Map Collection. These maps typically portray both natural and manmade features. The selection represents a range of originators, ground condition dates, scales, and map purposes.

Burma, Bangladesh, & South Asia, 1825 (Raster Image)

This layer is a georeferenced raster image of the historic paper map entitled: Burmese empire, drawn by L. Hebert. It was published by Quarr. Mastr. Genls.' Office, Horse Guards in 1825. Scale [ca. 1:2,050,000]. Covers Burma, Bangladesh, and portions of Bhutan, India, China, Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam.The image inside the map neatline is georeferenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the Asia North Lambert Conformal Conic coordinate system. All map collar and inset information is also available as part of the raster image, including any inset maps, profiles, statistical tables, directories, text, illustrations, index maps, legends, or other information associated with the principal map. This map shows features such as drainage, cities and other human settlements, roads, territorial and administrative boundaries, shoreline features, and more. Relief shown by hachures. Includes notes. This layer is part of a selection of digitally scanned and georeferenced historic maps from the Harvard Map Collection. These maps typically portray both natural and manmade features. The selection represents a range of originators, ground condition dates, scales, and map purposes.

Burma Region, 1829 (Raster Image)

This layer is a georeferenced raster image of the historic paper map entitled: Birmah, with part of Anam and Siam, by Sidney Hall. It was printed for Longman, Rees, Orme, Brown and Green in April 1st, 1829. Scale [ca. 1:3,300,000]. Covers Burma and portions of Bangladesh, India, China, Laos, and Thailand. The image inside the map neatline is georeferenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the Asia North Lambert Conformal Conic coordinate system. All map collar and inset information is also available as part of the raster image, including any inset maps, profiles, statistical tables, directories, text, illustrations, index maps, legends, or other information associated with the principal map. This map shows features such as drainage, cities and other human settlements, territorial and administrative boundaries, shoreline features, and more. Relief shown by hachures.This layer is part of a selection of digitally scanned and georeferenced historic maps from the Harvard Map Collection. These maps typically portray both natural and manmade features. The selection represents a range of originators, ground condition dates, scales, and map purposes.

Magnae Tartariae, magni Mogolis Imperii, Iaponiae et Chinae: nova descriptio ex tabula

ampliss viri D. N. Witsen pro majori parte aliis auctoribus excerpta et dita per F. de Witt.

Continental regionalism: Brazil's prominent role in the Americas. CEPS Working Document No. 374, February 2013

Brazil has a dual identity as a Latin American country and one of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). The regional and global dimensions of Brasilia’s foreign policy have been closely intertwined. Inspired by the idea of development and autonomy in the last ten years, Brazil has assumed a stronger regional leadership role. The result has been the emergence of a South American space, with Mercosur and Unasur as the main integration schemes. For Brazil, regionalism is not only a goal in itself but also an instrument for exerting global influence and for ‘soft-balancing’ the United States. Washington’s lower profile in the region has facilitated Brazil’s rise as a regional and even continental player, with a strong influence on the Latin American puzzle composed of many different pieces or concentric circles.