The Permanent Income Hypothesis: A Test on Czech Privatisation

Since the late eighties, economists have been regarding the transition from command to market economies in Central and Eastern Europe with intense interest. In addition to studying the transition per se, they have begun using the region as a testing ground on which to investigate the validity of certain classic economic propositions. In his research, comprising three articles written in English and totalling 40 pages, Mr. Hanousek uses the so-called "Czech national experiment" (voucher privatisation scheme) to test the permanent income hypothesis (PIH). He took as his inspiration Kreinin's recommendation: "Since data concerning the behaviour of windfall income recipients is relatively scanty, and since such data can constitute an important test of the permanent income hypothesis, it is of interest to bring to bear on the hypothesis whatever information is available". Mr. Hanousek argues that, since the transfer of property to Czech citizens from 1992 to 1994 through the voucher scheme was not anticipated, it can be regarded as windfall income. The average size of the windfall was more than three month's salary and over 60 percent of the Czech population received this unexpected income. Furthermore, there are other reasons for conducting such an analysis in the Czech Republic. Firstly, the privatisation process took place quickly. Secondly, both the economy and consumer behaviour have been very stable. Thirdly, out of a total population of 10 million Czech citizens, an astonishing 6 million, that is, virtually every household, participated in the scheme. Thus Czech voucher privatisation provides a sample for testing the PIH almost equivalent to a full population, thus avoiding problems with the distribution of windfalls. Compare this, for instance with the fact that only 4% of the Israeli urban population received personal restitution from Germany, while the number of veterans who received the National Service Life Insurance Dividends amounted to less than 9% of the US population and were concentrated in certain age groups. But to begin with, Mr. Hanousek considers the question of whether the public percieves the transfer from the state to individual as an increase in net wealth. It can be argued that the state is only divesting itself of assets that would otherwise provide a future source of transfers. According to this argument, assigning these assets to individuals creates an offsetting change in the present value of potential future transfers so that individuals are no better off after the transfer. Mr. Hanousek disagrees with this approach. He points out that a change in the ownership of inefficient state-owned enterprises should lead to higher efficiency, which alone increases the value of enterprises and creates a windfall increase in citizens' portfolios. More importantly, the state and individuals had very different preferences during the transition. Despite government propaganda, it is doubtful that citizens of former communist countries viewed government-owned enterprises as being operated in the citizens' best interest. Moreover, it is unlikely that the public fully comprehended the sophisticated links between the state budget, state-owned enterprises, and transfers to individuals. Finally, the transfers were not equal across the population. Mr. Hanousek conducted a survey on 1263 individuals, dividing them into four monthly earnings categories. After determining whether the respondent had participated in the voucher process, he asked those who had how much of what they received from voucher privatisation had been (a) spent on goods and services, (b) invested elsewhere, (c) transferred to newly emerging pension funds, (d) given to a family member, and (e) retained in their original form as an investment. Both the mean and the variance of the windfall rise with income. He obtained similar results with respect to education, where the mean (median) windfall for those with a basic school education was 13,600 Czech Crowns (CZK), a figure that increased to 15,000 CZK for those with a high school education without exams, 19,900 CZK for high school graduates with exams, and 24,600 CZK for university graduates. Mr. Hanousek concludes that it can be argued that higher income (and better educated) groups allocated their vouchers or timed the disposition of their shares better. He turns next to an analysis of how respondents reported using their windfalls. The key result is that only a relatively small number of individuals reported spending on goods. Overall, the results provide strong support for the permanent income hypothesis, the only apparent deviation being the fact that both men and women aged 26 to 35 apparently consume more than they should if the windfall were annuitised. This finding is still fully consistent with the PIH, however, if this group is at a stage in their life-cycle where, without the windfall, they would be borrowing to finance consumption associated with family formation etc. Indeed, the PIH predicts that individuals who would otherwise borrow to finance consumption would consume the windfall up to the level equal to the annuitised fraction of the increase in lifetime income plus the full amount of the previously planned borrowing for consumption. Greater consumption would then be financed, not from investing the windfall, but from avoidance of future repayment obligations for debts that would have been incurred without the windfall.

Health risk appraisal in older people 1: are older people living alone an "at-risk" group?

BACKGROUND: In the UK, population screening for unmet need has failed to improve the health of older people. Attention is turning to interventions targeted at 'at-risk' groups. Living alone in later life is seen as a potential health risk, and older people living alone are thought to be an at-risk group worthy of further intervention. AIM: To explore the clinical significance of living alone and the epidemiology of lone status as an at-risk category, by investigating associations between lone status and health behaviours, health status, and service use, in non-disabled older people. Design of study: Secondary analysis of baseline data from a randomised controlled trial of health risk appraisal in older people. SETTING: Four group practices in suburban London. METHOD: Sixty per cent of 2641 community-dwelling non-disabled people aged 65 years and over registered at a practice agreed to participate in the study; 84% of these returned completed questionnaires. A third of this group, (n = 860, 33.1%) lived alone and two-thirds (n = 1741, 66.9%) lived with someone else. RESULTS: Those living alone were more likely to report fair or poor health, poor vision, difficulties in instrumental and basic activities of daily living, worse memory and mood, lower physical activity, poorer diet, worsening function, risk of social isolation, hazardous alcohol use, having no emergency carer, and multiple falls in the previous 12 months. After adjustment for age, sex, income, and educational attainment, living alone remained associated with multiple falls, functional impairment, poor diet, smoking status, risk of social isolation, and three self-reported chronic conditions: arthritis and/or rheumatism, glaucoma, and cataracts. CONCLUSION: Clinicians working with independently-living older people living alone should anticipate higher levels of disease and disability in these patients, and higher health and social risks, much of which will be due to older age, lower educational status, and female sex. Living alone itself appears to be associated with higher risks of falling, and constellations of pathologies, including visual loss and joint disorders. Targeted population screening using lone status may be useful in identifying older individuals at high risk of falling.

Risk of tuberculosis following HIV seroconversion in high-income countries

Background Few data exist on tuberculosis (TB) incidence according to time from HIV seroconversion in high-income countries and whether rates following initiation of a combination of antiretroviral treatments (cARTs) differ from those soon after seroconversion. Methods Data on individuals with well estimated dates of HIV seroconversion were used to analyse post-seroconversion TB rates, ending at the earliest of 1 January 1997, death or last clinic visit. TB rates were also estimated following cART initiation, ending at the earliest of death or last clinic visit. Poisson models were used to examine the effect of current and past level of immunosuppression on TB risk after cART initiation. Results Of 19 815 individuals at risk during 1982–1996, TB incidence increased from 5.89/1000 person-years (PY) (95% CI 3.77 to 8.76) in the first year after seroconversion to 10.56 (4.83 to 20.04, p=0.01) at 10 years. Among 11 178 TB-free individuals initiating cART, the TB rate in the first year after cART initiation was 4.23/1000 PY (3.07 to 5.71) and dropped thereafter, remaining constant from year 2 onwards averaging at 1.64/1000 PY (1.29 to 2.05). Current CD4 count was inversely associated with TB rates, while nadir CD4 count was not associated with TB rates after adjustment for current CD4 count, HIV-RNA at cART initiation. Conclusions TB risk increases with duration of HIV infection in the absence of cART. Following cART initiation, TB incidence rates were lower than levels immediately following seroconversion. Implementation of current recommendations to prevent TB in early HIV infection could be beneficial.

Income in Adult Survivors of Childhood Cancer.

INTRODUCTION Little is known about the impact of childhood cancer on the personal income of survivors. We compared income between survivors and siblings, and determined factors associated with income. METHODS As part of the Swiss Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (SCCSS), a questionnaire was sent to survivors, aged ≥18 years, registered in the Swiss Childhood Cancer Registry (SCCR), diagnosed at age <21 years, who had survived ≥5 years after diagnosis of the primary tumor. Siblings were used as a comparison group. We asked questions about education, profession and income and retrieved clinical data from the SCCR. We used multivariable logistic regression to identify characteristics associated with income. RESULTS We analyzed data from 1'506 survivors and 598 siblings. Survivors were less likely than siblings to have a high monthly income (>4'500 CHF), even after we adjusted for socio-demographic and educational factors (OR = 0.46, p<0.001). Older age, male sex, personal and parental education, and number of working hours were associated with high income. Survivors of leukemia (OR = 0.40, p<0.001), lymphoma (OR = 0.63, p = 0.040), CNS tumors (OR = 0.22, p<0.001), bone tumors (OR = 0.24, p = 0.003) had a lower income than siblings. Survivors who had cranial irradiation, had a lower income than survivors who had no cranial irradiation (OR = 0.48, p = 0.006). DISCUSSION Even after adjusting for socio-demographic characteristics, education and working hours, survivors of various diagnostic groups have lower incomes than siblings. Further research needs to identify the underlying causes.

Sociodemographic characteristics as predictors of successful smoking cessation among a group of Hispanic Spanish speaking smokers

Few studies have examined predictors of smoking abstinence among Hispanic groups. The purpose of this dissertation was to examine the relations of sociodemographic characteristics and smoking related factors with smoking abstinence among a group of Hispanic Spanish speaking smokers. This study utilized previously collected data from Hispanic Spanish-speaking smokers (N = 246) who participated in a study entitled Smoking Cessation Services for Hispanic Smokers in Texas. ^ The first study examined sociodemographic characteristics and smoking related mechanisms that predicted smoking abstinence among this group. Two of the characteristics were related to smoking abstinence, marital status and acculturation level. Being unmarried increased the likelihood of being abstinent at the 12 week assessment (OR = 1.80). Those in the high acculturation group were twice as likely to be abstinent (OR = 2.24). Of the smoking related mechanisms, those with higher positive reinforcement expectancies were less likely to be abstinent (OR = .86), as were those with a higher level of affiliative attachment (OR = .86), a higher level of craving (OR = .78) and a higher tolerance to the effect of smoking (OR = .74). The second study was to examine the relationship of objective measures of socioeconomic status (SES) (income, education, or employment) with smoking abstinence among this group. This study also compared the relationship of a subjective measure of SES (Social Status Ladder) to smoking abstinence. None of the objective measures of SES were related to smoking abstinence at the 12 week assessment. The subjective measure of SES did predict smoking abstinence (OR = 1.9) indicting that those that rated themselves ≤4 on the SES scale were more likely to be abstinent. ^ Although this group was recruited using various methods across the state of Texas, the fact that they preferred to interact with the counselor in Spanish may limit the study findings. The results of this study highlight the need for research to examine specific subgroups of people and understand the special circumstances that influence their health behaviors. Furthering our knowledge of the relations between sociodemographic characteristics and smoking cessation could lead to interventions that reduce disparities in smoking cessation. ^

Racial and ethnic disparities in diabetes mellitus and hypertension: Influence of income and insurance status in a cross-sectional study of the United States

Racial/ethnic disparities in diabetes mellitus (DM) and hypertension (HTN) have been observed and explained by socioeconomic status (education level, income level, etc.), screening, early diagnosis, treatment, prognostic factors, and adherence to treatment regimens. To the author's knowledge, there are no studies addressing disparities in hypertension and diabetes mellitus utilizing Hispanics as the reference racial/ethnic group and adjusting for sociodemographics and prognostic factors. This present study examined racial/ethnic disparities in HTN and DM and assessed whether this disparity is explained by sociodemographics. To assess these associations, the study utilized a cross-sectional design and examined the distribution of the covariates for racial/ethnic group differences, using the Pearson Chi Square statistic. The study focused on Non-Hispanic Blacks since this ethnic group is associated with the worst health outcomes. Logistic regression was used to estimate the prevalence odds ratio (POR) and to adjust for the confounding effects of the covariates. Results indicated that except for insurance coverage, there were statistically significant differences between Non-Hispanic Blacks and Non-Hispanic Whites, as well as Hispanics with respect to study covariates. In the unadjusted logistic regression model, there was a statistically significant increased prevalence of hypertension among Non-Hispanic Blacks compared to Hispanics, POR 1.36, 95% CI 1.02-1.80. Low income was statistically significantly associated with increased prevalence of hypertension, POR 0.38, 95% CI 0.32-0.46. Insurance coverage, though not statistically significant, was associated with an increase in the prevalence of hypertension, p>0.05. Concerning DM, Non-Hispanic Blacks were more likely to be diabetic, POR 1.10, 95% CI 0.85-1.47. High income was statistically significantly associated with decreased prevalence of DM, POR 0.47, 95% CI 0.39-0.57. After adjustment for the relevant covariates, the racial disparities between Hispanics and Non-Hispanic Blacks in HTN was removed, adjusted prevalence odds (APOR) 1.21, 95% CI 0.88-1.67. In this sample, there was racial/ethnic disparity in hypertension but not in diabetes mellitus between Hispanics and Non-Hispanic Blacks, with disparities in hypertension associated with socioeconomic status (family income, education, marital status) and also by alcohol, physical activity and age. However, race, education and BMI as class variables were statistically significantly associated with hypertension and diabetes mellitus p<0.0001. ^

AN ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIVE INFLUENCE OF RACE, INCOME, EDUCATION, AND FOOD STAMP PROGRAM PARTICIPATION/NONPARTICIPATION ON THE FOOD AND NUTRIENT CONSUMPTION OF A NORTH FLORIDA URBAN CLINIC POPULATION IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SURVEY OF NUTRITION RELATED HABITS AND ATTITUDES

The relative influence of race, income, education, and Food Stamp Program participation/nonparticipation on the food and nutrient intake of 102 fecund women ages 18-45 years in a Florida urban clinic population was assessed using the technique of multiple regression analysis. Study subgroups were defined by race and Food Stamp Program participation status. Education was found to have the greatest influence on food and nutrient intake. Race was the next most influential factor followed in order by Food Stamp Program participation and income. The combined effect of the four independent variables explained no more than 19 percent of the variance for any of the food and nutrient intake variables. This would indicate that a more complex model of influences is needed if variations in food and nutrient intake are to be fully explained.^ A socioeconomic questionnaire was administered to investigate other factors of influence. The influence of the mother, frequency and type of restaurant dining, and perceptions of food intake and weight were found to be factors deserving further study.^ Dietary data were collected using the 24-hour recall and food frequency checklist. Descriptive dietary findings indicated that iron and calcium were nutrients where adequacy was of concern for all study subgroups. White Food Stamp Program participants had the greatest number of mean nutrient intake values falling below the 1980 Recommended Dietary Allowances (RDAs). When Food Stamp Program participants were contrasted to nonparticipants, mean intakes of six nutrients (kilocalories, calcium, iron, vitamin A, thiamin, and riboflavin) were below the 1980 RDA compared to five mean nutrient intakes (kilocalories, calcium, iron, thiamin and riboflavin) for the nonparticipants. Use of the Index of Nutritional Quality (INQ), however, revealed that the quality of the diet of Food Stamp Program participants per 1000 kilocalories was adequate with exception of calcium and iron. Intakes of these nutrients were also not adequate on a 1000 kilocalorie basis for the nonparticipant group. When mean nutrient intakes of the groups were compared using Student's t-test oleicacid intake was the only significant difference found. Being a nonparticipant in the Food Stamp Program was found to be associated with more frequent consumption of cookies, sweet rolls, doughnuts, and honey. The findings of this study contradict the negative image of the Food Stamp Program participant and emphasize the importance of education. ^

The use of social media to communicate child health information to low-income parents: A formative study

The Internet, and specifically web 2.0 social media applications, offers an innovative method for communicating child health information to low-income parents. The main objective of this study was to use qualitative data to determine the value of using social media to reach low-income parents with child health information. A qualitative formative evaluation employing focus groups was used to determine the value of using social media for dissemination of child health information. Inclusion criteria included: (1) a parent with a child that attends a school in a designated Central Texas school district; and (2) English-speaking. The students who attend these schools are generally economically disadvantaged and are predominately Hispanic. The classic analysis strategy was used for data analysis. Focus group participants (n=19) were female (95%); White (53%), Hispanic (42%) or African American (5%); and received government assistance (63%). Most had access to the Internet (74%) and were likely to have low health literacy (53%). The most preferred source of child health information was the family pediatrician or general practitioner. Many participants were familiar with social media applications and had profiles on popular social networking sites, but used them infrequently. Objections to social media sites as sources of child health information included lack of credibility and parent time. Social media has excellent potential for reaching low-income parents when used as part of a multi-channel communication campaign. Further research should focus on the most effective type and format of messages that can promote behavior change in this population, such as story-telling. ^

Let their voices be heard: Understanding the barriers to seeking early prenatal care for low-income non-Hispanic Black women

Background: Receipt of early prenatal care, care during the first three months of pregnancy, is the standard in the United States. Sixty percent of non-Hispanic Black women who had a live birth in the Sunnyside community of Houston did not obtain early prenatal care in 2009. ^ This study's aims were to: 1) Describe the barriers to obtaining early prenatal care in non-Hispanic Black women who live in the Sunnyside community of Houston; and, 2) Describe the actions that could encourage non-Hispanic Black women who live in the Sunnyside Community to obtain early prenatal care. The goal was to provide information to organizations that promote early prenatal care use in non-Hispanic Black women in Harris County that may aid in developing interventions. ^ Methods: The Participatory Learning for Action rapid assessment qualitative method was used in a group setting to answer the research questions on behalf of women in the community. Women who participated in the group sessions also participated in an in-depth interview. Key informants who work in the community with pregnant women, or promote the use of prenatal care services, were also interviewed. An inductive analysis of the data was conducted to identify common themes that address the study's aims. ^ Results: Aim 1: Group participants identified fear of the reaction from family and/or the baby's daddy and shame, not having insurance or money, and lack of knowledge of the pregnancy and resources as the top three barriers to early prenatal care for women in the community. Aim 2: Group participants stated that to help women to overcome these barriers, communication, awareness and support; help, resources and services; and information and early education are needed. Participant in-depth interviewees echoed the themes of fear of the reaction from family and/or the baby's daddy and not knowing of the pregnancy. Key informants mentioned these themes as well, though not at the same priority level. Participants and key informants also mentioned similar themes for helping women to overcome barriers to early prenatal care. ^ Conclusion: A comprehensive approach is needed to improve early prenatal care use in the Sunnyside community. Education efforts must include all members of the community, young and old, to promote support for pregnant women. Community members must be a part of the process for developing education campaigns. Engaging the community builds a relationship with organizations that serve the community, which may promote use of the organizations' services, and build trust with the community. All efforts must be ongoing so that women and men of all ages in the community understand the importance of prenatal care and support women obtaining care early in the pregnancy.^

Economic Reforms and Income Inequality in Urban China

This paper reports the results of an analysis of changes in income inequality, and in its determinants, in urban China since the economic reforms that began in 1978. The intention is to identify new characteristics of economic inequality. It first shows that income differentials acrossand in provinces widened and that their economic rankings were becoming fixed during the period from 1988 to 1995. Second, age was the major factor in inequality in 1988, while education became the important factor in 1995. Third, education significantly contributed to increasing inequality during the period. Fourth, the higher education-level groups had less within-group inequality. These changes reflect the penetration of the market mechanism into China after the reforms. However, this will be problematic without equality of opportunity.

Income, energy expenditure and housing in Madrid: retrofitting policy implications

Fuel poverty can be defined as ‘the inability to afford adequate warmth in the home’ and it is the result of the combination of three factors: low household income, lack of energy efficiency and high energy bills. Within this context, the present research is aimed at characterizing, for the first time, the housing stock of fuel-poor households in the Autonomous Region of Madrid. Fuel poverty incidence was established and households were divided into six different groups according to their relative position regarding fuel and monetary poverty. The housing stock of each group is characterized and those households most in need are identified. These results enable energy retrofitting priorities to be established, focusing on the needs of the different household groups and accounting for their housing stock characteristics. This allows Spanish energy retrofitting policies to be assessed for their capability of tackling fuel poverty and makes it possible to suggest some improvements.