Essays in optimal resource allocation under uncertainty with capacity constraints

This thesis brings together four papers on optimal resource allocation under uncertainty with capacity constraints. The first is an extension of the Arrow-Debreu contingent claim model to a good subject to supply uncertainty for which delivery capacity has to be chosen before the uncertainty is resolved. The second compares an ex-ante contingent claims market to a dynamic market in which capacity is chosen ex-ante and output and consumption decisions are made ex-post. The third extends the analysis to a storable good subject to random supply. Finally, the fourth examines optimal allocation of water under an appropriative rights system.

Estudio sobre las relaciones entre la percepción de competencia, el estado de ánimo y la tolerancia al estrés en jóvenes deportistas en formación

247 p.

Decomposição do Spread Bancário no Brasil:uma análise do período recente (2000-2008)

Esta dissertação avalia a evolução e estrutura do spread bancário ex-post no Brasil, no período 2000-2008, usando o método de decomposição contábil. Esta avaliação é feita em três partes. Na primeira estuda-se o setor bancário como um todo utilizando uma amostra de 30 bancos representando 89,8% do total de ativos do Consolidado bancário I (bancos comerciais e bancos múltiplos que tenham uma carteira comercial) no ano 2008. Na segunda a análise é realizada levando em conta as especificidades dos diferentes segmentos de bancos (grandes bancos varejistas, bancos varejistas públicos e bancos especializados em crédito), definidos considerando características como tamanho, tipo de negócio e clientela, característica do funding, etc., e ainda o controle de capital (público, privado nacional e estrangeiro). Por fim, numa terceira parte, considera-se, sobretudo o nicho do mercado de crédito que o banco atua. Esta segmentação do setor bancário permite avaliar a evolução do spread e sua decomposição, assim como comparar os diferentes segmentos do mercado de crédito no Brasil. A principal conclusão da dissertação é que a diferenciação da amostra de bancos por segmento ou por nicho de mercado tem implicações importantes para análise do nível e decomposição do spread bancário.

Adolescência e sentido de vida

Esta pesquisa tem como problema de investigação o sentido de vida na adolescência. E os objetivos a alcançar foram: discutir questões atuais relativas à adolescência; analisar questões centrais da Logoterapia, propostas por Viktor Frankl; e investigar empiricamente o sentido de vida na adolescência. Na pesquisa ex post facto realizada, foram submetidas à corroboração cinco conjecturas, relacionando adolescência, sexo, orientação confessional da escola e sentido de vida. Os participantes foram 230 alunos, cuja idade variou de 16 a 18 anos, sendo 91 do sexo masculino e 139 do sexo feminino, todos eles matriculados em escolas públicas e privadas do Ensino Médio da cidade de Petrópolis, Estado do Rio de Janeiro, Brasil. Foram selecionadas duas escolas públicas, uma estadual e uma municipal, além de quatro escolas privadas, sendo duas leigas e duas confessionais, que atendem alunos de classe sócio-econômica diferenciada. Utilizamos o Logo-Teste, originalmente elaborado por Elizabeth Lukas, como instrumento de medida do sentido de vida dos participantes. Das cinco conjecturas testadas, duas foram corroboradas: a de que não há diferença significativa no sentido de vida entre adolescentes do sexo masculino e do sexo feminino e a de que não há diferença significativa no sentido de vida entre adolescentes de escolas públicas e particulares leigas. Além disso, observou-se que as médias obtidas por todos os grupos de participantes situam-se na faixa da estabilidade psíquica, sem riscos de ocorrência de neurose noógena ou depressão noógena.

Assessment of the impact of aquatic resources research by ICLARM: scope and methodologies

The importance of quantifying the economic returns to investments in aquatic resources research together with the social, environmental and institutional impacts of such investments is widely recognized among ICLARM's donors, trustees and beneficiaries. As with other Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) centers, ICLARM is being asked to provide specific accounts of the outputs of its research and their impact on farms and on fisheries, including their socioeconomic impact. Such impact information has become a necessary, though not sufficient, basis for setting priorities and allocating resources for research for the CGIAR centers. This paper discusses the types and methods of impact assessment relevant to ICLARM's work. A three-pronged assessment approach is envisaged to capture the full range of impacts: 1) ex ante assessment for research priority setting; 2) assessment prior to dissemination or adoption along with monitoring and evaluation; and 3) ex post impact assessment. It also discusses the objectives and scope for operational impact assessment of ICLARM's research.

Impact of development and dissemination of Integrated Aquaculture-Agriculture (IAA) Technologies in Malawi

Malawi is a small but densely populated country in Southern Africa. Fish is an important part of the nutrition of Malawians, providing essential protein and micronutrients. However, per capita fish consumption has halved over the ten-year period between 1988 to 1998 due to over-fishing in the lakes and doubling of the population since the 1970s, accompanied by an increase in the price of fish. This has worsened access to food insecurity, especially in rural areas, in a country where an estimated 66 per cent of the population consume less than the minimum daily calorie requirement. This paper presents an ex-post impact assessment of the development and dissemination of smallscale integrated aquaculture-agriculture technologies by The WorldFish Center and its national and international partners over more than 15 years in Malawi. The impact study measures the effects of these outputs on the degree of integrated aquaculture-agriculture (IAA) technology adoption and diffusion, the effects on farm income and health of household members, and the welfare effects of increased fish supply on the Malawian economy.

Evidenciação de princípios de governança nos relatórios de auditoria elaborados pelo órgão de controle interno da Marinha do Brasil

O controle interno está associado ao contexto da governança das organizações. Na administração pública brasileira, compete aos Poderes Executivo, Legislativo e Judiciário a manutenção de um sistema de controle interno integrado, conforme previsto na Constituição Federal. Os aspectos relacionados à governança são contemplados na Teoria da Agência, em que a relação entre principal e agente é marcada pela assimetria de informações e pelos conflitos de interesse. O objetivo deste estudo é investigar a evidenciação de princípios de governança nos relatórios de auditoria elaborados pelo órgão de controle interno da Marinha do Brasil. Trata-se de pesquisa descritiva, documental e ex post facto, conduzida pelo método de estudo de caso no Centro de Controle Interno da Marinha (CCIMAR). Devido à quantidade de material disponibilizado pelo órgão, o estudo foi limitado à investigação dos relatórios de auditoria de avaliação da gestão de 2012, tendo as unidades auditadas sido previamente selecionadas pelo Tribunal de Contas da União (TCU). Em 2012, o CCIMAR produziu seis relatórios de auditoria de avaliação da gestão, representando, portanto, a amostra de conveniência desta pesquisa. Para orientar a investigação, definiu-se um quadro de referência contemplando e integrando os princípios de governança abordados pelos seguintes estudos: Cadbury Committee (1992); Nolan Committee (1995); Ministério das Finanças da Holanda Timmers (2000); IFAC (2001); ANAO (2003); OECD (2004); e IBGC (2009). Os princípios finalmente selecionados para investigação foram Accountability, Equidade, Integridade e Transparência, associados, respectivamente, às palavras-chave prestação (ões) de contas / prestar contas, tratamento justo, confiabilidade / fidedignidade das informações / dos dados e disponibilidade / divulgação das informações / dos dados, definidas pelos contextos dos significados destacados no quadro de referência. Sendo assim, os princípios e as palavras-chave formaram o referencial de análise para investigar os relatórios de auditoria e receberam tratamento quanti-qualitativo. Após exame das ocorrências dos princípios e das palavras-chave nos relatórios compulsados, os resultados indicaram que: (1) o princípio da Accountability estava associado ao cumprimento de prazos e formalidades legais requeridas nos processos de prestação de contas públicas; (2) o princípio da Equidade foi evidenciado, essencialmente, na perspectiva interna das unidades auditadas, sendo percebido nas recomendações que contemplavam a atuação mais consistente e efetiva dos respectivos conselhos de gestão no gerenciamento das organizações; (3) o princípio da Integridade foi abordado nos relatórios tanto como atributo pessoal (integridade moral) dos agentes públicos, quanto como característica necessária das informações reportadas nos documentos emitidos pelos órgãos públicos; e (4) a Transparência foi mencionada como o princípio que proporciona a diminuição da assimetria informacional entre os stakeholders, permitindo que tenham acesso às informações relevantes, tais como a aplicação dos recursos públicos destinados às organizações da Marinha do Brasil.

Empirical analysis and improved modelling of natural gas demand in Ireland

Countries across the world are being challenged to decarbonise their energy systems in response to diminishing fossil fuel reserves, rising GHG emissions and the dangerous threat of climate change. There has been a renewed interest in energy efficiency, renewable energy and low carbon energy as policy‐makers seek to identify and put in place the most robust sustainable energy system that can address this challenge. This thesis seeks to improve the evidence base underpinning energy policy decisions in Ireland with a particular focus on natural gas, which in 2011 grew to have a 30% share of Ireland’s TPER. Natural gas is used in all sectors of the Irish economy and is seen by many as a transition fuel to a low-carbon energy system; it is also a uniquely excellent source of data for many aspects of energy consumption. A detailed decomposition analysis of natural gas consumption in the residential sector quantifies many of the structural drives of change, with activity (R2 = 0.97) and intensity (R2 = 0.69) being the best explainers of changing gas demand. The 2002 residential building regulations are subject to an ex-post evaluation, which using empirical data finds a 44 ±9.5% shortfall in expected energy savings as well as a 13±1.6% level of non-compliance. A detailed energy demand model of the entire Irish energy system is presented together with scenario analysis of a large number of energy efficiency policies, which show an aggregate reduction in TFC of 8.9% compared to a reference scenario. The role for natural gas as a transition fuel over a long time horizon (2005-2050) is analysed using an energy systems model and a decomposition analysis, which shows the contribution of fuel switching to natural gas to be worth 12 percentage points of an overall 80% reduction in CO2 emissions. Finally, an analysis of the potential for CCS in Ireland finds gas CCS to be more robust than coal CCS for changes in fuel prices, capital costs and emissions reduction and the cost optimal location for a gas CCS plant in Ireland is found to be in Cork with sequestration in the depleted gas field of Kinsale.

Mergers and Acquisitions in Vietnam’s Emerging Market Economy, 1990-2009

This paper is the first major and thorough study on the M&A activities in Vietnam’s emerging market economy, covering almost entirely the M&A history after the launch of Doi Moi. The surge in these activities since mid-2000s by no means incidentally coincides with the jump in FDI and FPI inflows into the nation. M&A industry in Vietnam has its socio-cultural traits that could help explain economic happenings, with anomalies and transitional characteristics, far better than even the most complete set of empirical data. Proceeds from sales of existing assets and firms have mainly flowed into the highly speculative industries of securities, banking, non-bank financials, portfolio investments and real estates. The impacts of M&A on Vietnam’s long-term prosperity are, thus, highly questionable. An observable high degree of volatility in the M&A processes would likely blow outthe high ex ante expectations by many speculators, when ex post realizations finally arrive. The effect of the past M&A evolution in Vietnam has been indecisively positive or negative, with significant presence of rent-seeking and likelihood of causing destructive entrepreneurship. From a socio-economic and cultural view, the degree of positive impacts it may result in for domestic entrepreneurship will perhaps be the single most important indicator.

Corporate Bond Market in the Transition Economy of Vietnam, 1990-2010

Corporate bond appeared early in 1992-1994 in Vietnamese capital markets. However, it is still not popular to both business sector and academic circle. This paper explores different dimensions of Vietnamese corporate bond market using a unique, and perhaps, most complete dataset. State not only intervenes in the bond markets with its powerful budget and policies but also competes directly with enterprises. The dominance of SOEs and large corporations also prevents SMEs from this debt financing vehicle. Whenever a convertible term is available, bondholders are more willing to accept lower fixed income payoff. But they would not likely stick to it. On one hand, prospective bondholders could value the holdings of equity when realized favorably ex ante. On the other hand, the applicable coupon rate for such bond could turn out negative inflationadjusted payoff when tight monetary policy is exercised and the corresponding equity holding turns out valueless, ex post. Given the weak primary market and virtually nonexistent secondary market, the corporate bond market in Vietnam reflects our perception of the relationship-based and rent-seeking behavior in the financial markets. For the corporate bonds to really work, they critically need a higher level of liquidity to become truly tradable financial assets.

Resource Curse or Destructive Creation: A Tale of Crony Capitalism in Transition

This paper explores the “resource curse” problem as a counter-example of creative performance and innovation by examining reliance on capital and physical resources, showing the gap between expectations and ex-post actual performance became clearer under conditions of economic turmoil. The analysis employs logistic regressions with dichotomous response and predictor variables, showing significant results.Several findings that have use for economic and business practice follow. First, in a transition period, a typical characteristic of successful firms was their reliance on either capital resources or physical asset endowments, whereas the innovation factor was not significant.Second, poor-performing enterprises exhibited evidence of over reliance on both capital and physical assets. Third, firms that relied on both types of resources tended to downplay creative performance. Fourth, reliance on capital/physical resources and adoption of “creative discipline/innovations” tend to be mutually exclusive. In fact, some evidence suggests that firms face more acute problem caused by the law of diminishing returns in troubled times. The Vietnamese corporate sector’s addiction to resources may contribute to economic deterioration, through a downward spiral of lower efficiency leading to consumption of more resources. The “innovation factor” has not been tapped as a source of economic growth. The absence of innovations and creativity has made the notion of “resource curse” become identical to “destructive creation” implemented by ex-ante resource-rich firms, and worsened the problem of resource misallocation in transition turmoil.

Indexed Regulation

Seminal work by Weitzman (1974) revealed prices are preferred to quantities when marginal benefits are relatively flat compared to marginal costs. We extend this comparison to indexed policies, where quantities are proportional to an index, such as output. We find that policy preferences hinge on additional parameters describing the first and second moments of the index and the ex post optimal quantity level. When the ratio of these variables' coefficients of variation divided by their correlation is less than approximately two, indexed quantities are preferred to fixed quantities. A slightly more complex condition determines when indexed quantities are preferred to prices. Applied to climate change policy, we find that the range of variation and correlation in country-level carbon dioxide emissions and GDP suggests the ranking of an emissions intensity cap (indexed to GDP) compared to a fixed emission cap is not uniform across countries; neither policy clearly dominates the other.

Using Behavioral Insights For a Better Understanding of Economic Decisions (Regarding Savings, Inequality and Dishonesty)

This dissertation consists of three essays on behavioral economics, with a general aim of enriching our understanding of economic decisions using behavioral insights and experimental methodology. Each essay takes on one particular topic with this general aim.

The first chapter studies savings behavior of the poor. In this project, partnering with a savings product provider in Kenya, we tested the extent to which behavioral interventions and financial incentives can increase the saving rate of individuals with low and irregular income. Our experiment lasted for six months and included a total of twelve conditions. The control condition received weekly reminders and balance reporting via text messages. The treatment conditions received in addition one of the following interventions: (1) reminder text messages framed as if they came from the participant’s kid (2) a golden colored coin with numbers for each week of the trial, on which participants were asked to keep track of their weekly deposits (3) a match of weekly savings: The match was either 10% or 20% up to a certain amount per week. The match was either deposited at the end of each week or the highest possible match was deposited at the start of each week and was adjusted at the end. Among these interventions, by far the most effective was the coin: Those in the coin condition saved on average the highest amount and more than twice as those in the control condition. We hypothesize that being a tangible track-keeping object; the coin made subjects remember to save more often. Our results support the line of literature suggesting that saving decisions involve psychological aspects and that policy makers and product designers should take these influences into account.

The second chapter is related to views towards inequality. In this project, we investigate how the perceived fairness of income distributions depends on the beliefs about the process that generated the inequality. Specifically, we examine how two crucial features of this process affect fairness views: (1) Procedural justice - equal treatment of all, (2) Agency - one's ability to determine his/her income. We do this in a lab experiment by varying the equality of opportunity (procedural justice), and one's ability to make choices, which consequently influence subjects’ ability to influence their income (agency). We then elicit ex-post redistribution decisions of the earnings as a function of these two elements. Our results suggest both agency and procedural justice matter for fairness. Our main findings can be summarized as follows: (1) Highlighting the importance of agency, we find that inequality resulting from risk is considered to be fair only when risk is chosen freely; (2) Highlighting the importance of procedural justice, we find that introducing inequality of opportunity significantly increases redistribution, however the share of subjects redistributing none remain close to the share of subjects redistributing fully revealing an underlying heterogeneity in the population about how fairness views should account for inequality of opportunity.

The third chapter is on morality. In this project, we study whether religious rituals act as an internal reminder for basic moral principles and thus affect moral judgments. To this end, we conducted two survey experiments in Turkey and Israel to specifically test the effect of Ramadan and Yom Kippur. The results from the Turkish sample how that Ramadan has a significant effect on moral judgments to some extent for those who report to believe in God. Those who believe in God judged the moral acceptability of ten out of sixty one actions significantly differently in Ramadan, whereas those who reported not to believe in God significantly changed their judgments only for one action in Ramadan. Our results extends the hypothesis established by lab experiments that religious reminders have a significant effect on morality, by testing it in the field in the natural environment of religious rituals.

This thesis is part of a broader collaborative research agenda with both colleagues and advisors. The programming, analyses, and writing, as well as any errors in this work, are my own.

The Harsh Reality of Pursuing Innovations: Emerging Market Perspectives

This short conference paper serves as a distillation of a keynote address delivered at the the Second National Conference on Management and Higher Education Trends & Strategies for Management & Administration hosted by Bangkok-based Stamford International University (Thailand) on November 1, 2014.Innovation is discussed as the heart of entrepreneurial processes occurring in today's capitalist economic systems, including transition economies like China and Vietnam, which underscores economic competitiveness of firms and economies. But the innovation effort and process also face dilemma of "entrepreneurial curse of innovation". Advantages and disadvantages are weighed for a more balanced view, especially in the context of outnumbering SMEs and given existence of pitfalls and traps along the innovation path of development. Toward the end, the value of the market is once again stressed amid the concern of subjective assumption and illusion about availability of market opportunities in the mind of innovators, which may contrast totally with the dismal outcome the actual market realities may show ex post.

Estudio del sistema de agronegocios del jabalí en Argentina : antecedentes y situación actual desde la perspectiva de los negocios agroalimentarios

La carne de jabalí es apreciada por sus características organolépticas y nutricionales. El principal consumidor es Europa (Italia, Alemania y Francia) , seguido por Japón. En Argentina, esta especie se adaptó en gran parte del territorio y a diferentes situaciones ecológicas. Asimismo, la crianza en cautiverio, aprovechamiento, elaboración, distribución, precios y características nutricionales no son de amplio conocimiento. El propósito de este trabajo es realizar un diagnóstico del sistema de agronegocios del jabalí en Argentina a fin de identificar los puntos fuertes y débiles y a partir de allí, proponer acciones para dar soluciones a las problemáticas actuales. Se utiliza como metodología el abordaje de la epistemología fenomenológica y el método EPESA, lo cual permite contar con abordaje amplio y sistémico del agronegocio bajo análisis. También, se utiliza el marco teórico de la nueva economía institucional, siguiendo el abordaje de Joskow y sus tres vías de aproximación. Si bien es una producción que posee ventajas comparativas (clima, suelo, extensión, alimento) que permitirían el desarrollo productivo y comercial del sistema, se observa que la informalidad limita la implementación de planteos productivos con mayores niveles de tecnología, registros y datos genéticos, lo que imposibilita la exportación. Por otra parte, existe un problema de reglamentaciones con respecto a la faena, dado que debe ser aprobada por FAUNA y por SENASA, teniendo distintos requerimientos y tiempos de carga y transporte. Esto genera incompatibilidades para la comercialización formal, incentivando a transacciones ilegales, baja transparencia, oportunismo ex ante y ex post de las transacciones y altos costos de transacción. Dado este ambiente de negocios descripto, las empresas bajo estudio en general trabajan con nichos de mercado y no tienen un panorama de ampliación productiva y comercial. Por tanto, la mejora del ambiente institucional es la primera acción a seguir a fin de vencer las limitaciones mencionadas.