Invasionsoft: a web-enabled tool for invasive species colonization predictions

Predicting and averting the spread of invasive species is a core focus of resource managers in all ecosystems. Patterns of invasion are difficult to forecast, compounded by a lack of user-friendly species distribution model (SDM) tools to help managers focus control efforts. This paper presents a web-based cellular automata hybrid modeling tool developed to study the invasion pattern of lionfish (Pterois volitans/miles) in the western Atlantic and is a natural extension our previous lionfish study. Our goal is to make publically available this hybrid SDM tool and demonstrate both a test case (P. volitans/miles) and a use case (Caulerpa taxifolia). The software derived from the model, titled Invasionsoft, is unique in its ability to examine multiple default or user-defined parameters, their relation to invasion patterns, and is presented in a rich web browser-based GUI with integrated results viewer. The beta version is not species-specific and includes a default parameter set that is tailored to the marine habitat. Invasionsoft is provided as copyright protected freeware at http://www.invasionsoft.com.

A mechanism for the link between solar-irradiance variations and regional precipitation

Although the mechanisms of climatic fluctuations are not completely understood, changes in global solar irradiance show a link with regional precipitation. A proposed mechanism for this linkage begins with absorption of varying amounts of solar energy by tropical oceans, which may aid in development of ocean temperature anomalies. These anomalies are then transported by major ocean currents to locations where the stored energy is released into the atmosphere, altering pressure and moisture patterns that can ultimately affect regional precipitation. Correlation coefficients between annual averages of monthly differences in empirically modeled solar-irradiance variations and annual state-divisional precipitation values in the United States for 1950 to 1988 were computed with lag times of 0 to 7 years. The highest correlations (R=0.65) occur in the Pacific Northwest with a lag time of 4 years, which is about equal to the travel time of water within the Pacific Gyre from the western tropical Pacific Ocean to the Gulf of Alaska. With positive correlations, droughts coincide with periods of negative irradiance differences (dry, high-pressure development), and wet periods coincide with periods of positive differences (moist, low-pressure development).