PyRate: a new program to estimate speciation and extinction rates from incomplete fossil data

Despite the advancement of phylogenetic methods to estimate speciation and extinction rates, their power can be limited under variable rates, in particular for clades with high extinction rates and small number of extant species. Fossil data can provide a powerful alternative source of information to investigate diversification processes. Here, we present PyRate, a computer program to estimate speciation and extinction rates and their temporal dynamics from fossil occurrence data. The rates are inferred in a Bayesian framework and are comparable to those estimated from phylogenetic trees. We describe how PyRate can be used to explore different models of diversification. In addition to the diversification rates, it provides estimates of the parameters of the preservation process (fossilization and sampling) and the times of speciation and extinction of each species in the data set. Moreover, we develop a new birth-death model to correlate the variation of speciation/extinction rates with changes of a continuous trait. Finally, we demonstrate the use of Bayes factors for model selection and show how the posterior estimates of a PyRate analysis can be used to generate calibration densities for Bayesian molecular clock analysis. PyRate is an open-source command-line Python program available at http://sourceforge.net/projects/pyrate/.

Incomplete markets, labor supply and capital accumulation

In this paper we explore the accumulation of capital in the presence oflimited insurance against idiosyncratic shocks, borrowing constraintsand endogenous labor supply. As in the exogenous labor supply case(e.g. Aiyagari 1994, Huggett 1997), we find that steady states arecharacterized with an interest rate smaller than the rate of timepreference. However,wealsofind that when labor supply is endogenous thepresence of uncertainty and a borrowing limit are not enough to giverise to aggregate precautionary savings .

The evolution of conventions under incomplete information

We formulate an evolutionary learning process in the spirit ofYoung (1993a) for games of incomplete information. The process involves trembles. For many games, if the amount of trembling is small, play will be in accordance with the games' (semi-strict) Bayesian equilibria most of the time. This supports the notion of Bayesian equilibrium. Further, often play will most of the time be in accordance with exactly one Bayesian equilibrium. This gives a selection among the Bayesian equilibria. For two specific games of economic interest wecharacterize this selection. The first is an extension to incomplete information of the prototype strategic conflict known as Chicken. The second is an incomplete information bilateral monopoly, which is also an extension to incompleteinformation of Nash's demand game, or a simple version ofthe so-called sealed bid double auction. For both gamesselection by evolutionary learning is in favor of Bayesianequilibria where some types of players fail to coordinate, such that the outcome is inefficient.

Equilibrium selection through incomplete information in coordination games: An experimental study

We perform an experiment on a pure coordination game with uncertaintyabout the payoffs. Our game is closely related to models that have beenused in many macroeconomic and financial applications to solve problemsof equilibrium indeterminacy. In our experiment each subject receives anoisy signal about the true payoffs. This game has a unique strategyprofile that survives the iterative deletion of strictly dominatedstrategies (thus a unique Nash equilibrium). The equilibrium outcomecoincides, on average, with the risk-dominant equilibrium outcome ofthe underlying coordination game. The behavior of the subjects convergesto the theoretical prediction after enough experience has been gained. The data (and the comments) suggest that subjects do not apply through"a priori" reasoning the iterated deletion of dominated strategies.Instead, they adapt to the responses of other players. Thus, the lengthof the learning phase clearly varies for the different signals. We alsotest behavior in a game without uncertainty as a benchmark case. The gamewith uncertainty is inspired by the "global" games of Carlsson and VanDamme (1993).

Stabilization versus insurance: Welfare effects of procyclical taxation under incomplete markets

We construct and calibrate a general equilibrium business cycle model with unemployment and precautionary saving. We compute the cost of business cycles and locate the optimum in a set of simple cyclical fiscal policies. Our economy exhibits productivity shocks, giving firms an incentive to hire more when productivity is high. However, business cycles make workers' income riskier, both by increasing the unconditional probability of unusuallylong unemployment spells, and by making wages more variable, and therefore they decrease social welfare by around one-fourth or one-third of 1% of consumption. Optimal fiscal policy offsets the cycle, holding unemployment benefits constant but varying the tax rate procyclically to smooth hiring. By running a deficit of 4% to 5% of output in recessions, the government eliminates half the variation in the unemployment rate, most of the variation in workers'aggregate consumption, and most of the welfare cost of business cycles.

A new electrocardiographic criteria for discriminating between Brugada types 2 and 3 patterns and incomplete right bundle branch block

Le syndrome de Brugada, une affection rythmique du sujet jeune potentiellement fatale, se manifeste sur l'ECG par un bloc de branche droit (BBD) complet, avec sus-décalage majeur du segment ST et inversion des ondes Τ de V1 à V3 appelé pattern de type 1. Cette présentation peut être intermittente. Les manifestations incomplètes du syndrome de Brugada sont appelées patterns de types 2 ou 3, et sont caractérisées par un BBD incomplet et un sus-décalage ST plus ou moins prononcé dans les dérivations V-, et V2 de l'ECG. Cette description, cependant, est aussi celle du BBD incomplet fréquemment rencontré chez les sujets jeunes, de moins de 40 ans, et présent dans 3% de la population. Bo nombre de ces sujets sont donc référés pour une recherche de syndrome de Brugada. Le but de cette thèse est donc d'évaluer de nouveaux critères permettant de discriminer les BBD incomplets, banals, des sujets porteurs d'un syndrome de Brugada de types 2 ou 3. Trente-huit patients avec un pattern de Brugada de types 2 et 3, référés pour un test médicamenteux utilisant un antiarythmique révélant un pattern de type 1 chez les sujets porteurs, ont été inclus dans l'étude. Avant le test médicamenteux, deux angles ont été mesurés sur les dérivations Vi et/ou V2 : a, l'angle entre une ligne verticale et la descente de l'onde r', et β, l'angle entre la montée de l'onde S et la descente de l'onde r'. Les mesure à l'état basai des deux angles, seules ou combinées avec la durée du QRS, on été comparées entre les patients avec une épreuve pharmacologique positive et ceux dont l'épreuve s'est révélée négative (i.e. servant de groupe contrôle car porteur d'un véritable BBD incomplet). Des courbes ROC ont été établies afin de déterminer les valeurs d'angles les plus discriminantes. La moyenne des angles β était significativement plus petite chez les 14 patients avec un test pharmacologique négatif comparé aux 24 patients avec un test positif. La valeur optimale pour l'angle β était de 58°, ce qui donnait une valeur prédictive positive de 73% et une valeur prédictive négative de 97% pour une conversion en pattern de type 1 lors du test pharmacologique. L'angle α était un peu moins sensible et spécifique que β. Quand les angles étaient combinés à la durée du QRS, on observait une discrète amélioration de la discrimination entre les deux populations. Notre travail permet donc, chez des patients suspects d'un syndrome de Brugada, de discriminer entre un BBD incomplet et les patterns de Brugada types 2 et 3 en utilisant un critère simple basé sur l'ECG de surface potentiellement applicable au lit du patient

Fonction ventriculaire gauche après revascularisation pour occlusion d'une coronaire d'une durée de 1-2 heures [Left ventricular function following revascularization for occlusion of a coronary artery lasting 1 to 2 hours].

The time-lag between coronary occlusion and irreversible damage to the myocardium is ill-defined in man. In 10 patients the changes in left ventricular function have been studied after coronary occlusion during diagnostic or therapeutic cardiac catheterization of 1-2 hours' duration. Revascularization was achieved either surgically or through intracoronary streptokinase infusion. The interval between occlusion and onset of extracorporal circulation or reopening was 61 to 119 minutes. Despite enzyme elevation (CPK, CK-MB, SGOT) and appearance of Q-waves in 5 patients, no significant alteration of left ventricular function was noted on repeat cardiac catheterization 10 to 230 days after the accident. These observations, suggest that coronary occlusion of 1-2 hours' duration fails to produce significant irreversible damage to the myocardium despite electrocardiographic and enzymatic signs of myocardial infarction.

Patterns of extraocular muscle weakness in vasculopathic pupil-sparing, incomplete third nerve palsy.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the pattern of extraocular muscle (EOM) paresis in incomplete vasculopathic third nerve palsies (3NP) that have normal pupillary function. METHODS: A retrospective study in a private practice and academic neuro-ophthalmic practice. Patients diagnosed with vasculopathic 3NP within 4 weeks of symptom onset were identified. The chart of each patient was reviewed to determine pupillary function and the pattern and degree of EOM and levator palpebrae paresis at the time of presentation. RESULTS: Of 55 patients with vasculopathic 3NP, 42 (76%) had normal pupillary function. Of these 42, 23 (55%) demonstrated an incomplete EOM palsy, defined as partially reduced ductions affecting all third nerve-innervated EOMs and levator (diffuse pattern) or partially reduced ductions that involved only some third nerve-innervated EOMs and levator (focal pattern). Twenty (87%) of these 23 patients showed a diffuse pattern of paresis; only three (13%) showed a focal pattern of paresis, one that affected only the superior rectus and levator muscles (superior division weakness). CONCLUSIONS: Based on our series, most patients with EOM/levator involvement in pupil-sparing, incomplete 3NP of vasculopathic origin have a diffuse pattern of paresis. In contrast, our review of the literature suggests that pupil-sparing 3NP of aneurysmal origin usually have a focal pattern of paresis. We propose that distinguishing these two patterns of EOM paresis may be helpful in differentiating between vasculopathic and aneurysmal 3NP. Future studies will be needed to confirm the clinical utility of this hypothesis.

Intrachannel versus interchannel application of angiogenic factors in transmyocardial laser revascularization.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Theoretically myocardial angiogenesis of laser injury can be further enhanced by the addition of angiogenic growth factors. The influence of the way of administration of these factors on vascular growth around the channels is still unclear. MATERIALS AND METHODS: 18 pigs (mean weight 72 +/- 5.2 kg) were randomized to either triads of transmyocardial laser revascularization (TMLR) channels (group 1, n = 6) or isolated channels (group 2, n = 6), or a control group (n = 6). The animals had injections of bovine bone derived growth factor mixture either in the center of the triads in group 1 or within the channels themselves in group 2. Animals were sacrificed one month later for histological analysis. RESULTS: The vascular densities of myocardial areas within the triads of group 1 and around the channels in group 2 were significantly larger than in the control group: 15.2 +/- 3.7/mm2 and 14.2 +/- 3.5/mm2 respectively vs 5.3 +/- 1.6/mm2 (p < 0.001 for both differences). Differences of densities between group 1 and 2 were not statistically significant (p = 0.6). CONCLUSIONS: In this porcine model, the addition of a bovine bone derived growth factor mixture to TMLR significantly stimulates angiogenesis in the areas adjacent to the channels. The place of injection does not influence the angiogenesis intensity.

Less Risk, More Effort : Demand Risk Allocation in Incomplete Contracts

This article investigates the allocation of demand risk within an incomplete contract framework. We consider an incomplete contractual relationship between a public authority and a private provider (i.e. a public-private partnership), in which the latter invests in non-verifiable cost-reducing efforts and the former invests in non-verifiable adaptation efforts to respond to changing consumer demand over time. We show that the party that bears the demand risk has fewer hold-up opportunities and that this leads the other contracting party to make more effort. Thus, in our model, bearing less risk can lead to more effort, which we describe as a new example of âeuro~counter-incentivesâeuro?. We further show that when the benefits of adaptation are important, it is socially preferable to design a contract in which the demand risk remains with the private provider, whereas when the benefits of cost-reducing efforts are important, it is socially preferable to place the demand risk on the public authority. We then apply these results to explain two well-known case studies.

Bayesian estimation of speciation and extinction from incomplete fossil occurrence data.

The temporal dynamics of species diversity are shaped by variations in the rates of speciation and extinction, and there is a long history of inferring these rates using first and last appearances of taxa in the fossil record. Understanding diversity dynamics critically depends on unbiased estimates of the unobserved times of speciation and extinction for all lineages, but the inference of these parameters is challenging due to the complex nature of the available data. Here, we present a new probabilistic framework to jointly estimate species-specific times of speciation and extinction and the rates of the underlying birth-death process based on the fossil record. The rates are allowed to vary through time independently of each other, and the probability of preservation and sampling is explicitly incorporated in the model to estimate the true lifespan of each lineage. We implement a Bayesian algorithm to assess the presence of rate shifts by exploring alternative diversification models. Tests on a range of simulated data sets reveal the accuracy and robustness of our approach against violations of the underlying assumptions and various degrees of data incompleteness. Finally, we demonstrate the application of our method with the diversification of the mammal family Rhinocerotidae and reveal a complex history of repeated and independent temporal shifts of both speciation and extinction rates, leading to the expansion and subsequent decline of the group. The estimated parameters of the birth-death process implemented here are directly comparable with those obtained from dated molecular phylogenies. Thus, our model represents a step towards integrating phylogenetic and fossil information to infer macroevolutionary processes.

Acute multivessel revascularization improves 1-year outcome in ST-elevation myocardial infarction: a nationwide study cohort from the AMIS Plus registry.

BACKGROUND: The optimal strategy for percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) of ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) in multi-vessel disease (MVD), i.e., multi-vessel PCI (MV-PCI) vs. PCI of the infarct-related artery only (IRA-PCI), still remains unknown. METHODS: Patients of the AMIS Plus registry admitted with an acute coronary syndrome were contacted after a median of 378 days (interquartile range 371-409). The primary end-point was all-cause death. The secondary end-point included all major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) including death, re-infarction, re-hospitalization for cardiac causes, any cardiac re-intervention, and stroke. RESULTS: Between 2005 and 2012, 8330 STEMI patients were identified, of whom 1909 (24%) had MVD. Of these, 442 (23%) received MV-PCI and 1467 (77%) IRA-PCI. While all-cause mortality was similar in both groups (2.7% both, p>0.99), MACCE was significantly lower after MV-PCI vs. IRA-PCI (15.6% vs. 20.0%, p=0.038), mainly driven by lower rates of cardiac re-hospitalization and cardiac re-intervention. Patients undergoing MV-PCI with drug-eluting stents had lower rates of all-cause mortality (2.1% vs. 7.4%, p=0.026) and MACCE (14.1% vs. 25.9%, p=0.042) compared with those receiving bare metal stents (BMS). In multivariate analysis, MV-PCI (odds ratio, OR 0.69, 95% CI 0.51-0.93, p=0.017) and comorbidities (Charlson index ≥ 2; OR 1.42, 95% CI 1.05-1.92, p=0.025) were independent predictors for 1-year MACCE. CONCLUSION: In an unselected nationwide real-world cohort, an approach using immediate complete revascularization may be beneficial in STEMI patients with MVD regarding MACCE, specifically when drug-eluting stents are used, but not regarding mortality. This has to be tested in a randomized controlled trial.

Foot skin blood flow following infrainguinal revascularization for critical lower limb ischemia.

INTRODUCTION: The aim of this study was to assess the blood flow in the feet before and after lower limb revascularization using laser Doppler imaging (LDI). METHODS: Ten patients with critical lower limb ischemia were prospectively enrolled from June to October 2004. All patients underwent successful unilateral surgical interventions including above-knee bypass, distal bypass and endarterectomy. Skin blood flow (SBF) over the plantar surface of both forefeet and heels was measured by LDI 24h before and 10 days after revascularization, expressed in perfusion units (PU), and reported as mean+/-SD. RESULTS: Measurements in the forefoot and heel were similar. Before revascularization mean SBF was significantly lower in the ischemic foot (130+/-71 PU) compared to the contralateral foot (212+/-68 PU), p<0.05. After revascularization a significant increase of the SBF in the forefoot (from 135+/-67 to 202+/-86 PU, p=0.001) and hindfoot (from 148+/-58 to 203+/-83, p=0.001) was observed on the treatment side. However, a large decrease of the SBF was seen in forefoot and hindfoot on the untreated side (from 250+/-123 PU to 176+/-83 and from 208+/-116 to 133+/-40, p=0.001, respectively). CONCLUSION: This study confirms the benefits of revascularization in patients with nonhealing foot lesions due to critical limb ischemia. A significant increase of the SBF was observed on the treatment side. However, an unexpected decrease was observed on the untreated side.

Clinical results of autologous infrainguinal revascularization using grafts originating distal to the femoral bifurcation in patients with mild inflow disease.

AIM: Chronic critical limb ischemia (CLI) often requires venous bypass grafting to distal arterial segments. However, graft patency is influenced by the length and quality of the graft and occasionally patients may have limited suitable veins. We investigated short distal bypass grafting from the superficial femoral or popliteal artery to the infrapopliteal, ankle or foot arteries, despite angiographic alterations of inflow vessels, providing that invasive pressure measurement at the site of the planned proximal anastomosis revealed an inflow-brachial pressure difference of <or=10 mmHg. METHODS: Four hundred and twenty-three consecutive infrainguinal bypass grafts were performed for CLI between June, 1999 and November, 2002 at our institution. All patients underwent preoperative clinical examination, arteriography and assessment of the veins by duplex ultrasound. The study group are patients in whom the proximal and distal anastomoses of the bypass are below the femoral bifurcation and the popliteal artery, respectively. Invasive arterial pressure measurements were recorded at the level of the planned proximal anastomosis which was performed at that level if the difference of the inflow-brachial pressure was <or=10 mmHg, irrespective of angiographic alterations of the inflow vessels proximal to the planned anastomosis. All patients had a clinical follow-up included a duplex examination of their graft, at 1 week, 3, 9 and 12 months and, thereafter, annually. No patient was lost to follow-up. RESULTS: Sixty-seven patients underwent 71 short distal bypass grafts in 71 limbs with reversed saphenous vein grafts in 52, in situ saphenous veins in 11, reversed cephalic vein in 1 and composite veins in 7, respectively. Surgical or endovascular interventions to improve inflow were required in 4 limbs (5.6%). The mean follow-up time was 22.5 months and the two-year survival was 92.5%. Primary and secondary patency rates at 2 years were 73% and 93%, respectively, and the limb salvage rate was 98.5%. CONCLUSION: In appropriately selected patients, short distal venous bypass grafts can be performed with satisfactory patency and limb salvage rates even in the presence of morphologic alterations of the inflow vessels providing that these are not hemodynamically significant, or can be corrected intraoperatively.