Los conceptos de salud financiera, riesgo y epidemiología en los estados financieros de las compañías del sector de extracción de petróleo crudo y gas natural en Colombia

El presente proyecto tiene como objeto identificar cuáles son los conceptos de salud, enfermedad, epidemiología y riesgo aplicables a las empresas del sector de extracción de petróleo y gas natural en Colombia. Dado, el bajo nivel de predicción de los análisis financieros tradicionales y su insuficiencia, en términos de inversión y toma de decisiones a largo plazo, además de no considerar variables como el riesgo y las expectativas de futuro, surge la necesidad de abordar diferentes perspectivas y modelos integradores. Esta apreciación es pertinente dentro del sector de extracción de petróleo y gas natural, debido a la creciente inversión extranjera que ha reportado, US$2.862 millones en el 2010, cifra mayor a diez veces su valor en el año 2003. Así pues, se podrían desarrollar modelos multi-dimensional, con base en los conceptos de salud financiera, epidemiológicos y estadísticos. El termino de salud y su adopción en el sector empresarial, resulta útil y mantiene una coherencia conceptual, evidenciando una presencia de diferentes subsistemas o factores interactuantes e interconectados. Es necesario mencionar también, que un modelo multidimensional (multi-stage) debe tener en cuenta el riesgo y el análisis epidemiológico ha demostrado ser útil al momento de determinarlo e integrarlo en el sistema junto a otros conceptos, como la razón de riesgo y riesgo relativo. Esto se analizará mediante un estudio teórico-conceptual, que complementa un estudio previo, para contribuir al proyecto de finanzas corporativas de la línea de investigación en Gerencia.

API-CALC 1.0: a computer program for calculating the average probability of identity allowing for substructure, inbreeding and the presence of close relatives

Individual identification via DNA profiling is important in molecular ecology, particularly in the case of noninvasive sampling. A key quantity in determining the number of loci required is the probability of identity (PIave), the probability of observing two copies of any profile in the population. Previously this has been calculated assuming no inbreeding or population structure. Here we introduce formulae that account for these factors, whilst also accounting for relatedness structure in the population. These formulae are implemented in API-CALC 1.0, which calculates PIave for either a specified value, or a range of values, for F-IS and F-ST.

The changing nature of UK construction professional service firms

Professional services firms (PSFs) have been the subject of much attention in the literature in recent years, ranging across a number of distinct but related disciplines including economics, sociology, organization and management studies. Analysis has tended to concentrate on law and accounting firms in particular, and although there is a growing academic interest in construction/built environment professional services firms (CPSFs), these have received much less scrutiny. However, many of the changes taking place among PSFs – in particular, growth in firm size, moves towards external ownership and greater service/geographical diversification – are also taking place among the larger CPSFs. The CPSF sector is not especially well documented and there is little understanding of the motives for, and implications of, these changes in the firms, their clients and wider society. CPSFs are reviewed in the context of the more general PSF literature and a set of questions is posed for future research on CPSFs. These questions include the need to understand the implications of firm type on performance, the form of ownership that might confer the greatest financial benefits for different stakeholder groups, and the wider societal consequences of continuing growth in size and diversification of CPSFs.

Accounting for risk aversion in repeated prisoners’ dilemma games: an experimental test

We apply experimental methods to study the role of risk aversion on players’ behavior in repeated prisoners’ dilemma games. Faced with quantitatively equal discount factors, the most risk-averse players will choose Nash strategies more often in the presence of uncertainty than when future profits are discounted in a deterministic way. Overall, we find that risk aversion relates negatively with the frequency of collusive outcomes.

On the microphysical effects of observed cloud edge charging

Liquid layer clouds are abundant globally. Lacking strong convection, they do not become electrified by the usual thunderstorm mechanisms of collisional electrification between hydrometeors of different phases. Instead, the background global circuit current flow in fair weather is largely unaffected by the layer cloud’s presence, and, if the layer cloud is extensive horizontally, the vertical fair weather conduction current passes through the cloud. A consequence of the vertical current flow is that, at the cloud-air boundary where there is a conductivity transition and droplets form or evaporate, droplet charging occurs. Charge can affect both droplet evaporation and droplet-droplet collisions. Using new radiosonde instrumentation, the charge observed at layer cloud edges is evaluated for both these microphysical droplet processes. This shows that the charging is more likely to affect collision processes than activation, for small droplets. Enhancing the collection efficiency of small droplets modifies their evolution and propagates through the size distribution to shorten the autoconversion timescale to rain drops, and the cloud radiative properties. Because the conduction current density is influenced by both external (e.g. solar modulation of high energy particles) and internal (e.g. ENSO) factors, current flow leading to layer cloud edge charging provides a possible route for expressing solar influences on the climate system and a teleconnection mechanism for communicating internal climate variability.

The perceived impact of the National Health Service on personalised nutrition service delivery among the UK public

Personalised nutrition (PN) has the potential to reduce disease risk and optimise health and performance. Although previous research has shown good acceptance of the concept of PN in the UK, preferences regarding the delivery of a PN service (e.g. online v. face-to-face) are not fully understood. It is anticipated that the presence of a free at point of delivery healthcare system, the National Health Service (NHS), in the UK may have an impact on end-user preferences for deliverances. To determine this, supplementary analysis of qualitative data obtained from focus group discussions on PN service delivery, collected as part of the Food4Me project in the UK and Ireland, was undertaken. Irish data provided comparative analysis of a healthcare system that is not provided free of charge at the point of delivery to the entire population. Analyses were conducted using the 'framework approach' described by Rabiee (Focus-group interview and data analysis. Proc Nutr Soc 63, 655-660). There was a preference for services to be led by the government and delivered face-to-face, which was perceived to increase trust and transparency, and add value. Both countries associated paying for nutritional advice with increased commitment and motivation to follow guidelines. Contrary to Ireland, however, and despite the perceived benefit of paying, UK discussants still expected PN services to be delivered free of charge by the NHS. Consideration of this unique challenge of free healthcare that is embedded in the NHS culture will be crucial when introducing PN to the UK.

A new regime of carbon counting: the practices and politics of accounting for everyday carbon through C02e

Inspired by the commercial desires of global brands and retailers to access the lucrative green consumer market, carbon is increasingly being counted and made knowable at the mundane sites of everyday production and consumption, from the carbon footprint of a plastic kitchen fork to that of an online bank account. Despite the challenges of counting and making commensurable the global warming impact of a myriad of biophysical and societal activities, this desire to communicate a product or service's carbon footprint has sparked complicated carbon calculative practices and enrolled actors at literally every node of multi-scaled and vastly complex global supply chains. Against this landscape, this paper critically analyzes the counting practices that create the ‘e’ in ‘CO2e’. It is shown that, central to these practices are a series of tools, models and databases which, in building upon previous work (Eden, 2012 and Star and Griesemer, 1989) we conceptualize here as ‘boundary objects’. By enrolling everyday actors from farmers to consumers, these objects abstract and stabilize greenhouse gas emissions from their messy material and social contexts into units of CO2e which can then be translated along a product's supply chain, thereby establishing a new currency of ‘everyday supply chain carbon’. However, in making all greenhouse gas-related practices commensurable and in enrolling and stabilizing the transfer of information between multiple actors these objects oversee a process of simplification reliant upon, and subject to, a multiplicity of approximations, assumptions, errors, discrepancies and/or omissions. Further the outcomes of these tools are subject to the politicized and commercial agendas of the worlds they attempt to link, with each boundary actor inscribing different meanings to a product's carbon footprint in accordance with their specific subjectivities, commercial desires and epistemic framings. It is therefore shown that how a boundary object transforms greenhouse gas emissions into units of CO2e, is the outcome of distinct ideologies regarding ‘what’ a product's carbon footprint is and how it should be made legible. These politicized decisions, in turn, inform specific reduction activities and ultimately advance distinct, specific and increasingly durable transition pathways to a low carbon society.

Scriptural Archeology: Excavating the Presence of Women in the Torah

Women's roles in religious history have been traditionally described in terms of their relation and value to men. The normative religious texts provide an androcentric perspective on the gender relationships within the early community, the growth of Judaism in "Jacob's House" and the monotheistic worship of God. Yet these literary representations omit an entire half of the experience of the Jewish community: the perspective and participation of women. As Judith Plaskow argues extensively in Standing Again at Sinai, women are defined not in her own terms or in her own voice, but by her relationship and value to men through the androcentric vocabulary of the Torah. This statement is textually illustrated by the authorial and editorial presentation of women and their place in ancient Israelite society in the Torah. As Judaism grew increasingly androcentric in its leadership, women were increasingly reduced to marginal figures in the community by authorial and editorial revisions. Yet the participation of women of ancient Israel is not lost. Instead, the presence of women is buried beneath the androcentric presentation of the early Judaic community, waiting to be excavated by historical and scriptural examination. The retelling of the past is influenced by the present; memory is not static but takes on different shapes depending on the focus of concentration. However, tradition greatly influences the interpretation of religious history as well. In the book of Genesis, the literature emphasizes the divine appointment of male figures such as Abraham the father of the covenant and Jacob who is renamed and claimed by God as "Israel," placing them at the center of Jewish history. As a result, the other figures in these biblical narratives are described in relation to the patriarchs, those male bearers of the covenant, by their service or their value to him. Women are at the bottom of this hierarchy. Although female figures of exceptional quality are noted in later chronicles, such as Ruth, Deborah and Miriam, it is the very nature of their exception that highlights the androcentric editorial focus of the Torah. I agree with Peggy Day, whose own scriptural examination in Gender and Difference in Ancient Israel, makes the important distinction between the literary representation and the reality of ancient Israelite culture: they are not coextensive nor equivalent. Although the text represents the culture of ancient Israel as male dominated from the time of Abraham, this presentation omits the perspective of half of the population-the women. By beginning at the point of realization that women did exist and were active in their culture, and placing aside the androcentric perspective of the text and its editors, the reality of women's place in ancient Israel may be determined. Through this new perspective, the women of the Torah will emerge as the archetypes of strength, leadership and spiritual insight to provide Jewish women of the present with female, ancestral role models and a foundation for their gender's heritage, a more complete understanding of the partial record of Jewish history recorded in the Torah. Those stories that appear as the exception of women's presence will unveil an exceptional presence. As Tamar Frankiel eloquently states in The Voice of Sarah, "the women we call our 'Mothers'-Sarah, Rivkah (Rebekah), Rachel, and Leah-are not merely mothers, any more than the 'Fathers'-Abraham, Isaac and Jacob-are merely fathers "(Frankiel 5).

Dual resource transfers and interruption in external debt service

Externai debt service requires a dual resource transfer. Trade surpluses have to be generated in order to make foreign exchange revenues available for debt repayment. In addition, with developing countries' externai debt being largely a public liability, debt service requires that resources can be effectively transferred from the private to the public sector. This paper derives a statistical model for dealing with dual constraints in the presence of binary dependent variables and applies it to the dual resource transfer problem. The results from the estimation of the model for a sample of 31 middle-income developing countries in the period of 1980 to 1990, strongly support the hypothesis that both externai and fiscal constraints are important in explaining externai debt service disruptions.

Fertility-associated antigen on Nelore bull sperm and reproductive outcomes following first-service fixed-time AT of Nelore cows and heifers

The objective was to determine whether the presence of fertility-associated antigen (FAA) on sperm collected from Nelore (Bos indicus) bulls can be used to assess potential fertility of sperm for use at first-service fixed-time AI (TAI). Six Nelore bulls were selected based on FAA status (FAA-negative: N = 3; FAA-positive: N = 3) and the ability to produce neat semen with >= 70% morphologically normal sperm and 60% estimated progressive motility before cryopmservation. In Experiment 1, suckled multiparous Nelore cows (N = 835) were evaluated for body condition score (BCS) and received an intravaginal progesterone device (CIDR) and 2.0 mg of estradiol benzoate (Day 0). on Day 9 the CIDR was removed, 12.5 mg of PGF(2 alpha) and 0.5 mg of estradiol cypionate were administered, and calves were removed for 48 h. All cows received TAI on Day II (48 h after CIDR removal). Pregnancy per TAI (P/TAI) was not different between FAA-positive and FAA-negative bulls (41.5% vs. 39.3%, respectively). There was an effect of AI technician on P/TAI (36.0% vs. 43.9%; P < 0.05) and BCS tended to affect P/TAI (P = 0.09), as cows with BCS >= 2.75 were 1.4 times more likely to become pregnant compared with cows with BCS < 2.75. In Experiment 2, nulliparous Nelore heifers (N = 617) were evaluated for BCS and received a CIDR and estradiol benzoate (2.0 mg) on Day 0. on Day 7, all heifers received PGF(2 alpha) (12.5 mg). on Day 9, CIDR inserts were removed and all heifers received estradiol cypionate (0.6 mg) and 200 IU eCG. All heifers received TAI on Day 11 (48 h after CIDR removal). Pregnancy/TAI was different (P = 0.04) between FAA-positive and FAA-negative bulls (33.7% vs. 40.7%, respectively). Presence of FAA on sperm was unsuccessful in assessing the potential fertility of sperm for use in TAI. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Satisfação e percepção do usuário do SUS sobre o serviço público de saúde

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Mutagenic compounds generated from the chlorination of disperse azo-dyes and their presence in drinking water

The water produced by the Cristais River Drinking Water Treatment Plant (CR-DWTP) repeatedly produced mutagenic responses that could not be explained by the presence of disinfection byproducts (DBPs) generated by the reaction of humic acids and chlorine. In order to determine the possible role of chlorinated dye products in this mutagenic activity, solutions of a black dye commercial product (BDCP) composed of C. I. Disperse Blue 373, C. I. Disperse Orange 37, C. I. Disperse Violet 93, and chemically reduced BDCP (R-BDCP) were chlorinated in a manner similar to that used by the CR-DWTP. The resulting solutions were extracted with XAD-4 along with one drinking water sample collected from the CR-DWTP. All extracts showed mutagenic activity in the Salmonella/microsome assay. Dye components of the BDCP as well as its reduced chlorinated (Cl-R-BDCP) derivative were detected in the drinking water sample by analysis with a high performance liquid chromatography/diode array detector (HPLC/DAD). The mutagenicity results of these products suggest that they are, at least in part, accounting for the mutagenic activity detected in the drinking water samples from the Cristais River. The data obtained in this study have environmental and health implications because the chlorination of the BDCP and the R-BDCP leads to the formation of mutagenic compounds (Cl-BDCP and Cl-R-BDCP), which are potentially important disinfection byproducts that can contaminate the drinking water as well as the environment.

The role of coarse intermetallics in the localized corrosion behaviour of AA 2024-T3 in low concentrated chloride media

Aluminium alloy (AA) 2024-T3 is an important engineering material due to its widespread use in the aerospace industry. However, it is very prone to localized corrosion attack in chloride containing media, which has been mainly associated to the presence of coarse intermetallics (IMs). In this work the corrosion behaviour of aluminium alloy 2024-T3 in low concentrated chloride media was investigated using microscopy and electrochemical methods. SEM observations have shown that intermetallics with the same nominal composition present heterogeneous reaction rates, and that both types of coarse IMs normally found in the AA 2024-T3 microstructure corrode. Moreover, EDS analyses have shown important compositional changes in the corroded IMs, evidencing the selective corrosion of their more active constituents and the onset of an intense oxygen peak, irrespective to the IM nature. TEM/EDS observations on non-corroded samples have evidenced the heterogeneous composition within the IMs. On the other hand, the results of the electrochemical investigations, in accordance with the SEM/EDS observations, have evidenced that IMs corrosion dominates the electrochemical response of the alloy during the first hours of immersion in the test electrolyte. © 2009 by NACE International.

Epidemiological and oral manifestations of HIV-positive patients in a specialized service in Brazil

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the prevalence of oral lesions in HIV-positive patients attending the Specialized Service for Infectious-contagious Diseases and Parasitoses of the Health Secretariat of the State of Pará (URE-DIPE/SESPA), in the city of Belém, PA, Brazil. A total of 79 HIV-positive patients (53 males and 26 females) were examined. Clinical and epidemiological evaluations were done by correlating the lesions with gender, race, chronological age, risk behavior and prevailing immune status (CD4+ cells count). Lesion location and the presence of associated factors, such as alcohol use, smoking and denture wearing, were quantified individually for each type of lesion using a diagnostic pattern based on the clinical aspects. Approximately 47% of the patients (n=37) presented some type of oral lesion. Candidiasis (28%) and periodontal disease (28%) were the most common, followed by cervical-facial lymphadenopathy (17.5%). Other lesions observed were hairy leukoplakia, melanin hyperpigmentation, ulcerative stomatitis (aphthous), herpes simplex, frictional keratosis and pyogenic granuloma. This analysis presented some relevance as to the statistical data. Concerning CD4+ cells, most lesions manifested with the reduction of the CD count. There were a larger number of HIV-positive female heterosexual patients. Alcohol and/or smoking were strongly associated with the occurrence of hairy leukoplakia in these patients. Candidiasis and periodontal disease were the most common oro-regional clinical manifestations in the patients.

Accounting for uncertainty in ecological analysis: the strengths and limitations of hierarchical statistical modeling

Analyses of ecological data should account for the uncertainty in the process(es) that generated the data. However, accounting for these uncertainties is a difficult task, since ecology is known for its complexity. Measurement and/or process errors are often the only sources of uncertainty modeled when addressing complex ecological problems, yet analyses should also account for uncertainty in sampling design, in model specification, in parameters governing the specified model, and in initial and boundary conditions. Only then can we be confident in the scientific inferences and forecasts made from an analysis. Probability and statistics provide a framework that accounts for multiple sources of uncertainty. Given the complexities of ecological studies, the hierarchical statistical model is an invaluable tool. This approach is not new in ecology, and there are many examples (both Bayesian and non-Bayesian) in the literature illustrating the benefits of this approach. In this article, we provide a baseline for concepts, notation, and methods, from which discussion on hierarchical statistical modeling in ecology can proceed. We have also planted some seeds for discussion and tried to show where the practical difficulties lie. Our thesis is that hierarchical statistical modeling is a powerful way of approaching ecological analysis in the presence of inevitable but quantifiable uncertainties, even if practical issues sometimes require pragmatic compromises.