Improving runoff estimates from regional climate models: a performance analysis in Spain

An important step to assess water availability is to have monthly time series representative of the current situation. In this context, a simple methodology is presented for application in large-scale studies in regions where a properly calibrated hydrologic model is not available, using the output variables simulated by regional climate models (RCMs) of the European project PRUDENCE under current climate conditions (period 1961–1990). The methodology compares different interpolation methods and alternatives to generate annual times series that minimise the bias with respect to observed values. The objective is to identify the best alternative to obtain bias-corrected, monthly runoff time series from the output of RCM simulations. This study uses information from 338 basins in Spain that cover the entire mainland territory and whose observed values of natural runoff have been estimated by the distributed hydrological model SIMPA. Four interpolation methods for downscaling runoff to the basin scale from 10 RCMs are compared with emphasis on the ability of each method to reproduce the observed behaviour of this variable. The alternatives consider the use of the direct runoff of the RCMs and the mean annual runoff calculated using five functional forms of the aridity index, defined as the ratio between potential evapotranspiration and precipitation. In addition, the comparison with respect to the global runoff reference of the UNH/GRDC dataset is evaluated, as a contrast of the “best estimator” of current runoff on a large scale. Results show that the bias is minimised using the direct original interpolation method and the best alternative for bias correction of the monthly direct runoff time series of RCMs is the UNH/GRDC dataset, although the formula proposed by Schreiber (1904) also gives good results

Economic analysis of drought risks: an application to irrigated agriculture in Spain

Abstract This paper describes a two-part methodology for managing the risk posed by water supply variability to irrigated agriculture. First, an econometric model is used to explain the variation in the production value of irrigated agriculture. The explanatory variables include an index of irrigation water availability (surface storage levels), a price index representative of the crops grown in each geographical unit, and a time variable. The model corrects for autocorrelation and it is applied to 16 representative Spanish provinces in terms of irrigated agriculture. In the second part, the fitted models are used for the economic evaluation of drought risk. In flow variability in the hydrological system servicing each province is used to perform ex-ante evaluations of economic output for the upcoming irrigation season. The model?s error and the probability distribution functions (PDFs) of the reservoirs? storage variations are used to generate Monte Carlo (Latin Hypercube) simulations of agricultural output 7 and 3 months prior to the irrigation season. The results of these simulations illustrate the different risk profiles of each management unit, which depend on farm productivity and on the probability distribution function of water in flow to reservoirs. The potential for ex-ante drought impact assessments is demonstrated. By complementing hydrological models, this method can assist water managers and decisionmakers in managing reservoirs.

Conceptual modelling to assess how the interplay of hydrological connectivity, catchment storage and tracer dynamics controls nonstationary water age estimates

Acknowledgements We would like to gratefully acknowledge the data provided by SEPA, Iain Malcolm. Mark Speed, Susan Waldron and many MSS staff helped with sample collection and lab analysis. We thank the European Research Council (project GA 335910 VEWA) for funding and are grateful for the constructive comments provided by three anonymous reviewers.

Regional subsidence modelling in Murcia city (SE Spain) using 1-D vertical finite element analysis and 2-D interpolation of ground surface displacements

Subsidence is a hazard that may have natural or anthropogenic origin causing important economic losses. The area of Murcia city (SE Spain) has been affected by subsidence due to groundwater overexploitation since the year 1992. The main observed historical piezometric level declines occurred in the periods 1982–1984, 1992–1995 and 2004–2008 and showed a close correlation with the temporal evolution of ground displacements. Since 2008, the pressure recovery in the aquifer has led to an uplift of the ground surface that has been detected by the extensometers. In the present work an elastic hydro-mechanical finite element code has been used to compute the subsidence time series for 24 geotechnical boreholes, prescribing the measured groundwater table evolution. The achieved results have been compared with the displacements estimated through an advanced DInSAR technique and measured by the extensometers. These spatio-temporal comparisons have showed that, in spite of the limited geomechanical data available, the model has turned out to satisfactorily reproduce the subsidence phenomenon affecting Murcia City. The model will allow the prediction of future induced deformations and the consequences of any piezometric level variation in the study area.

Application of multi-sensor advanced DInSAR analysis to severe land subsidence recognition: Alto Guadalentín Basin (Spain)

Multi-sensor advanced DInSAR analyses have been performed and compared with two GPS station measurements, in order to evaluate the land subsidence evolution in a 20-year period, in the Alto Guadalentín Basin where the highest rate of man-induced subsidence (> 10 cm yr−1) of Europe had been detected. The control mechanisms have been examined comparing the advanced DInSAR data with conditioning and triggering factors (i.e. isobaths of Plio-Quaternary deposits, soft soil thickness and piezometric level).

M-AARE - Coupling atmospheric, hydrological, hydrodynamic and damage models in the Aare river basin, Switzerland

The triggering mechanism and the temporal evolution of large flood events, especially of worst-case scenarios, are not yet fully understood. Consequently, the cumulative losses of extreme floods are unknown. To study the link between weather conditions, discharges and flood losses it is necessary to couple atmospheric, hydrological, hydrodynamic and damage models. The objective of the M-AARE project is to test the potentials and opportunities of a model chain that relates atmospheric conditions to flood losses or risks. The M-AARE model chain is a set of coupled models consisting of four main components: the precipitation module, the hydrology module, the hydrodynamic module, and the damage module. The models are coupled in a cascading framework with harmonized time-steps. First exploratory applications show that the one way coupling of the WRF-PREVAH-BASEMENT models has been achieved and provides promising new insights for a better understanding of key aspects in flood risk analysis.

Evaluation of seismometer wave gage and comparative analysis of wave data at Yaquina and Coquille Bays, Oregon /

"September 1985."

Sustainable Management of the Great Artesian Basin: An Analysis Based on Law and Environmental Economics

Current policy issues surrounding management of the Great Artesian Basin - historical development of existing legislation and institutions - hydrological and historical background information - development of concerns over unsustainable use of resources and possible adverse environmental impacts - recent developments associated with the general reforms to water law and policy initiated by the Council of Australian Governments (COAG) - comparison of issues surrounding the Murray-Darling Basin and the Great Artesian Basin.

The use of Meteosat satellite data for spatial rainfall estimations and hydrological simulations

Satellite information, in combination with conventional point source measurements, can be a valuable source of information. This thesis is devoted to the spatial estimation of areal rainfall over a region using both the measurements from a dense and sparse network of rain-gauges and images from the meteorological satellites. A primary concern is to study the effects of such satellite assisted rainfall estimates on the performance of rainfall-runoff models. Low-cost image processing systems and peripherals are used to process and manipulate the data. Both secondary as well as primary satellite images were used for analysis. The secondary data was obtained from the in-house satellite receiver and the primary data was obtained from an outside source. Ground truth data was obtained from the local Water Authority. A number of algorithms are presented that combine the satellite and conventional data sources to produce areal rainfall estimates and the results are compared with some of the more traditional methodologies. The results indicate that the satellite cloud information is valuable in the assessment of the spatial distribution of areal rainfall, for both half-hourly as well as daily estimates of rainfall. It is also demonstrated how the performance of the simple multiple regression rainfall-runoff model is improved when satellite cloud information is used as a separate input in addition to rainfall estimates from conventional means. The use of low-cost equipment, from image processing systems to satellite imagery, makes it possible for developing countries to introduce such systems in areas where the benefits are greatest.

A finite element approach to modelling the hydrological regime in horizontal subsurface flow constructed wetlands for wastewater treatment

A Finite Element Analysis (FEA) model is used to explore the relationship between clogging and hydraulics that occurs in Horizontal Subsurface Flow Treatment Wetlands (HSSF TWs) in the United Kingdom (UK). Clogging is assumed to be caused by particle transport and an existing single collector efficiency model is implemented to describe this behaviour. The flow model was validated against HSSF TW survey results obtained from the literature. The model successfully simulated the influence of overland flow on hydrodynamics, and the interaction between vertical flow through the low permeability surface layer and the horizontal flow of the saturated water table. The clogging model described the development of clogging within the system but under-predicted the extent of clogging which occurred over 15 years. This is because important clogging mechanisms were not considered by the model, such as biomass growth and vegetation establishment. The model showed the usefulness of FEA for linking hydraulic and clogging phenomenon in HSSF TWs and could be extended to include treatment processes. © 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Rapid responses of vegetation to hydrological changes in Taylor Slough, Everglades National Park, Florida, USA

We analyzed the dynamics of freshwater marsh vegetation of Taylor Slough in eastern Everglades National Park for the 1979 to 2003 period, focusing on cover of individual plant species and on cover and composition of marsh communities in areas potentially influenced by a canal pump station (‘‘S332’’) and its successor station (‘‘S332D’’). Vegetation change analysis incorporated the hydrologic record at these sites for three intervals: pre-S332 (1961–1980), S332 (1980–1999), post-S332 (1999–2002). During S332 and post-S332 intervals, water level in Taylor Slough was affected by operations of S332 and S332D. To relate vegetation change to plot-level hydrological conditions in Taylor Slough, we developed a weighted averaging regression and calibration model (WA) using data from the marl prairies of Everglades National Park and Big Cypress National Preserve. We examined vegetation pattern along five transects. Transects 1–3 were established in 1979 south of the water delivery structures, and were influenced by their operations. Transects 4 and 5 were established in 1997, the latter west of these structures and possibly under their influence. Transect 4 was established in the northern drainage basin of Taylor Slough, beyond the likely zones of influence of S332 and S332D. The composition of all three southern transects changed similarly after 1979. Where muhly grass (Muhlenbergia capillaris var. filipes) was once dominant, sawgrass (Cladium jamaicense), replaced it, while where sawgrass initially predominated, hydric species such as spikerush (Eleocharis cellulosa Torr.) overtook it. Most of the changes in species dominance in Transects 1–3 occurred after 1992, were mostly in place by 1995–1996, and continued through 1999, indicating how rapidly vegetation in seasonal Everglades marshes can respond to hydrological modifications. During the post-S332 period, these long-term trends began reversing. In the two northern transects, total cover and dominance of both muhly grass and sawgrass increased from 1997 to 2003. Thus, during the 1990’s, vegetation composition south of S332 became more like that of long hydroperiod marshes, but afterward it partially returned to its 1979 condition, i.e., a community characteristic of less prolonged flooding. In contrast, the vegetation change along the two northern transects since 1997 showed little relationship to hydrologic status.

A preliminary analysis of the correlation of food-web characteristics with hydrology and nutrient gradients in the southern Everglades

We estimated trophic position and carbon source for three consumers (Florida gar, Lepisosteus platyrhincus; eastern mosquitofish, Gambusia holbrooki; and riverine grass shrimp, Palaemonetes paludosus) from 20 sites representing gradients of productivity and hydrological disturbance in the southern Florida Everglades, U.S.A. We characterized gross primary productivity at each site using light/dark bottle incubation and stem density of emergent vascular plants. We also documented nutrient availability as total phosphorus (TP) in floc and periphyton, and the density of small fishes. Hydrological disturbance was characterized as the time since a site was last dried and the average number of days per year the sites were inundated for the previous 10 years. Food-web attributes were estimated in both the wet and dry seasons by analysis of δ15N (trophic position) and δ13C (food-web carbon source) from 702 samples of aquatic consumers. An index of carbon source was derived from a two-member mixing model with Seminole ramshorn snails (Planorbella duryi) as a basal grazing consumer and scuds (amphipods Hyallela azteca) as a basal detritivore. Snails yielded carbon isotopic values similar to green algae and diatoms, while carbon values of scuds were similar to bulk periphyton and floc; carbon isotopic values of cyanobacteria were enriched in C13compared to all consumers examined. A carbon source similar to scuds dominated at all but one study site, and though the relative contribution of scud-like and snail-like carbon sources was variable, there was no evidence that these contributions were a function of abiotic factors or season. Gar consistently displayed the highest estimated trophic position of the consumers studied, with mosquitofish feeding at a slightly lower level, and grass shrimp feeding at the lowest level. Trophic position was not correlated with any nutrient or productivity parameter, but did increase for grass shrimp and mosquitofish as the time following droughts increased. Trophic position of Florida gar was positively correlated with emergent plant stem density.

Intercomparison of soil pore water extraction methods for stable isotope analysis

Peer reviewed

Hydrological Response of East China to the Variation of East Asian Summer Monsoon

Copyright © 2016 Fuxing Li et al.The sensitivity of hydrologic variables in East China, that is, runoff, precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture to the fluctuation of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), is evaluated by the Mann-Kendall correlation analysis on a spatial resolution of 1/4° in the period of 1952-2012. The results indicate remarkable spatial disparities in the correlation between the hydrologic variables and EASM. The regions in East China susceptible to hydrological change due to EASM fluctuation are identified. When the standardized anomaly of intensity index of EASM (EASMI) is above 1.00, the runoff of Haihe basin has increased by 49% on average, especially in the suburb of Beijing and Hebei province where the runoff has increased up to 105%. In contrast, the runoff in the basins of Haihe and Yellow River has decreased by about 27% and 17%, respectively, when the standardized anomaly of EASMI is below -1.00, which has brought severe drought to the areas since mid-1970s. The study can be beneficial for national or watershed agencies developing adaptive water management strategies in the face of global climate change.