Leakage Detection And Localization Method Based On A Hybrid Inverse/Direct Modelling Approach Suitable For Handling Multiple-Leak Scenarios

When an accurate hydraulic network model is available, direct modeling techniques are very straightforward and reliable for on-line leakage detection and localization applied to large class of water distribution networks. In general, this type of techniques based on analytical models can be seen as an application of the well-known fault detection and isolation theory for complex industrial systems. Nonetheless, the assumption of single leak scenarios is usually made considering a certain leak size pattern which may not hold in real applications. Upgrading a leak detection and localization method based on a direct modeling approach to handle multiple-leak scenarios can be, on one hand, quite straightforward but, on the other hand, highly computational demanding for large class of water distribution networks given the huge number of potential water loss hotspots. This paper presents a leakage detection and localization method suitable for multiple-leak scenarios and large class of water distribution networks. This method can be seen as an upgrade of the above mentioned method based on a direct modeling approach in which a global search method based on genetic algorithms has been integrated in order to estimate those network water loss hotspots and the size of the leaks. This is an inverse / direct modeling method which tries to take benefit from both approaches: on one hand, the exploration capability of genetic algorithms to estimate network water loss hotspots and the size of the leaks and on the other hand, the straightforwardness and reliability offered by the availability of an accurate hydraulic model to assess those close network areas around the estimated hotspots. The application of the resulting method in a DMA of the Barcelona water distribution network is provided and discussed. The obtained results show that leakage detection and localization under multiple-leak scenarios may be performed efficiently following an easy procedure.

Analysis and developments of uncertainty processors for real time flood forecasting

The hydrologic risk (and the hydro-geologic one, closely related to it) is, and has always been, a very relevant issue, due to the severe consequences that may be provoked by a flooding or by waters in general in terms of human and economic losses. Floods are natural phenomena, often catastrophic, and cannot be avoided, but their damages can be reduced if they are predicted sufficiently in advance. For this reason, the flood forecasting plays an essential role in the hydro-geological and hydrological risk prevention. Thanks to the development of sophisticated meteorological, hydrologic and hydraulic models, in recent decades the flood forecasting has made a significant progress, nonetheless, models are imperfect, which means that we are still left with a residual uncertainty on what will actually happen. In this thesis, this type of uncertainty is what will be discussed and analyzed. In operational problems, it is possible to affirm that the ultimate aim of forecasting systems is not to reproduce the river behavior, but this is only a means through which reducing the uncertainty associated to what will happen as a consequence of a precipitation event. In other words, the main objective is to assess whether or not preventive interventions should be adopted and which operational strategy may represent the best option. The main problem for a decision maker is to interpret model results and translate them into an effective intervention strategy. To make this possible, it is necessary to clearly define what is meant by uncertainty, since in the literature confusion is often made on this issue. Therefore, the first objective of this thesis is to clarify this concept, starting with a key question: should be the choice of the intervention strategy to adopt based on the evaluation of the model prediction based on its ability to represent the reality or on the evaluation of what actually will happen on the basis of the information given by the model forecast? Once the previous idea is made unambiguous, the other main concern of this work is to develope a tool that can provide an effective decision support, making possible doing objective and realistic risk evaluations. In particular, such tool should be able to provide an uncertainty assessment as accurate as possible. This means primarily three things: it must be able to correctly combine all the available deterministic forecasts, it must assess the probability distribution of the predicted quantity and it must quantify the flooding probability. Furthermore, given that the time to implement prevention strategies is often limited, the flooding probability will have to be linked to the time of occurrence. For this reason, it is necessary to quantify the flooding probability within a horizon time related to that required to implement the intervention strategy and it is also necessary to assess the probability of the flooding time.

Modellistica Idraulico-Matematica per la definizione di strategie di mitigazione del rischio alluvionale

La Comunità Europea, alla luce dei recenti eventi alluvionali occorsi nei Paesi Membri ed al progressivo aumento dei danni economici da essi provocati, ha recentemente emanato una direttiva (Direttiva Europea 2007/60/CE, Flood Directive) per la valutazione e la predisposizione di piani di gestione del rischio idraulico alluvionale. Con riferimento a tale contesto l’attività di ricerca condotta si è concentrata sulla valutazione delle potenzialità offerte dalla modellistica numerico-idraulica mono e bidimensionale quale strumento per l’attuazione della Direttiva 2007/60. Le attività sono state affrontate ponendo particolare attenzione alla valutazione dei termini di incertezza che caratterizzano l’applicazione dei modelli numerico-idraulici, esaminando i possibili effetti di tale incertezza sulla mappatura della pericolosità idraulica. In particolare, lo studio si concentra su diversi tratti fluviali del corso medio inferiore del Fiume Po e si articola in tre parti: 1) analisi dell’incertezza connessa alla definizione delle scale di deflusso in una generica sezione fluviale e valutazione dei suoi effetti sulla calibrazione dei modelli numerici quasi-bidimensionali (quasi-2D); 2) definizione di mappe probabilistiche di allagamento per tratti fluviali arginati in presenza di tre sorgenti di incertezza: incertezza nelle condizioni al contorno di monte, nelle condizioni di valle e nell’identificazione delle eventuali brecce arginali; 3) valutazione dell’applicabilità di un modello quasi-2D per la definizione, a grande scala spaziale, di strategie alternative al tradizionale rialzo dei manufatti arginali per la mitigazione del rischio alluvionale associato a eventi di piena catastrofici. Le analisi condotte, oltre ad aver definito e valutato le potenzialità di metodologie e modelli idraulici a diversa complessità, hanno evidenziato l’entità e l’impatto dei più importanti elementi d’incertezza, sottolineando come la corretta mappatura della pericolosità idraulica debba sempre essere accompagnata da una valutazione della sua incertezza.

Methoden zur Analyse, Interpretation und Modellierung des elektrischen Widerstandes von archäologischen Steinstrukturen

In der Archäologie werden elektrische Widerstandsmessungen routinemäßig zur Prospektion von Fundstellen eingesetzt. Die Methode ist kostengünstig, leicht anwendbar und liefert in den meisten Fällen zuverlässige und leicht zu interpretierende Ergebnisse. Dennoch kann die Methode die archäologischen Strukturen in manchen Fällen nur teilweise oder gar nicht abbilden, wenn die bodenphysikalischen und bodenchemischen Eigenschaften des Bodens und der archäologischen Strukturen dies nicht zulassen. Der spezifische elektrische Widerstand wird durch Parameter wie Wassergehalt, Bodenstruktur, Bodenskelett, Bodentextur, Salinität und Bodentemperatur beeinflusst. Manche dieser Parameter, wie z.B. der Wassergehalt und die Bodentemperatur, unterliegen einer saisonalen Veränderung. Die vorliegende Arbeit untersucht den spezifischen elektrischen Widerstand von archäologischen Steinstrukturen und evaluiert die Möglichkeit, auf Grundlage von Geländemessungen und Laboranalysen archäologische Strukturen und Böden als numerische Modelle darzustellen. Dazu wurde eine Kombination von verschiedenen bodenkundlichen, geoarchäologischen und geophysikalischen Methoden verwendet. Um archäologische Strukturen und Bodenprofile als numerische Widerstandsmodelle darstellen zu können, werden Informationen zur Geometrie der Strukturen und ihren elektrischen Widerstandswerten benötigt. Dabei ist die Qualität der Hintergrundinformationen entscheidend für die Genauigkeit des Widerstandsmodells. Die Geometrie der Widerstandsmodelle basiert auf den Ergebnissen von Rammkernsondierungen und archäologische Ausgrabungen. Die an der Ausbildung des elektrischen Widerstands beteiligten Parameter wurden durch die Analyse von Bodenproben gemessen und ermöglichen durch Pedotransfer-Funktion, wie die Rhoades-Formel, die Abschätzung des spezifischen elektrischen Widerstandes des Feinbodens. Um den Einfluss des Bodenskeletts auf den spezifischen elektrischen Widerstand von Bodenprofilen und archäologischen Strukturen zu berechnen, kamen die Perkolationstheorie und die Effective Medium Theory zum Einsatz. Die Genauigkeit und eventuelle Limitierungen der Methoden wurden im Labor durch experimentelle Widerstandsmessungen an ungestörten Bodenproben und synthetischen Materialien überprüft. Die saisonale Veränderung des Wassergehalts im Boden wurde durch numerische Modelle mit der Software HYDRUS simuliert. Die hydraulischen Modelle wurden auf Grundlage der ermittelten bodenkundlichen und archäologischen Stratigraphie erstellt und verwenden die Daten von lokalen Wetterstationen als Eingangsparameter. Durch die Kombination der HYDRUS-Ergebnisse mit den Pedotransfer-Funktionen konnte der Einfluss dieser saisonalen Veränderung auf die Prospektionsergebnisse von elektrischen Widerstandsmethoden berechnet werden. Die Ergebnisse der Modellierungsprozesse wurden mit den Geländemessungen verglichen. Die beste Übereinstimmung zwischen Modellergebnissen und den Prospektionsergebnissen konnte für die Fallstudie bei Katzenbach festgestellt werden. Bei dieser wurden die Modelle auf Grundlage von archäologischen Grabungsergebnissen und detaillierten bodenkundlichen Analysen erstellt. Weitere Fallstudien zeigen, dass elektrische Widerstandsmodelle eingesetzt werden können, um den Einfluss von ungünstigen Prospektionsbedingungen auf die Ergebnisse der elektrischen Widerstandsmessungen abzuschätzen. Diese Informationen unterstützen die Planung und Anwendung der Methoden im Gelände und ermöglichen eine effektivere Interpretation der Prospektionsergebnisse. Die präsentierten Modellierungsansätze benötigen eine weitere Verifizierung durch den Vergleich der Modellierungsergebnisse mit detailliertem geophysikalischem Gelände-Monitoring von archäologischen Fundstellen. Zusätzlich könnten elektrische Widerstandsmessungen an künstlichen Mauerstrukturen unter kontrollierten Bedingungen zur Überprüfung der Modellierungsprozesse genutzt werden.

A new methodological protocol for the use of dendrogeomorphological data in flood risk analysis

Dendrogeomorphology uses information sources recorded in the roots, trunks and branches of trees and bushes located in the fluvial system to complement (or sometimes even replace) systematic and palaeohydrological records of past floods. The application of dendrogeomorphic data sources and methods to palaeoflood analysis over nearly 40 years has allowed improvements to be made in frequency and magnitude estimations of past floods. Nevertheless, research carried out so far has shown that the dendrogeomorphic indicators traditionally used (mainly scar evidence), and their use to infer frequency and magnitude, have been restricted to a small, limited set of applications. New possibilities with enormous potential remain unexplored. New insights in future research of palaeoflood frequency and magnitude using dendrogeomorphic data sources should: (1) test the application of isotopic indicators (16O/18O ratio) to discover the meteorological origin of past floods; (2) use different dendrogeomorphic indicators to estimate peak flows with 2D (and 3D) hydraulic models and study how they relate to other palaeostage indicators; (3) investigate improved calibration of 2D hydraulic model parameters (roughness); and (4) apply statistics-based cost–benefit analysis to select optimal mitigation measures. This paper presents an overview of these innovative methodologies, with a focus on their capabilities and limitations in the reconstruction of recent floods and palaeofloods.

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