692 resultados para Hurst


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Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) is an important component of fisheries and food webs in the North Pacific Ocean and Bering Sea. However, vital rates of early life stages of this species have yet to be described in detail. We determined the thermal sensitivity of growth rates of embryos, preflexion and postflexion larvae, and postsettlement juveniles. Growth rates (length and mass) at each ontogenetic stage were measured in three replicate tanks at four to five temperatures. Nonlinear regression was used to obtain parameters for independent stage-specific growth functions and a unified size- and temperature-dependent growth function. Specific growth rates increased with temperature at all stages and generally decreased with increases in body size. However, these analyses revealed a departure from a strict size-based allometry in growth patterns, as reduced growth rates were observed among preflexion larvae: the reduction in specific growth rate between embryos and free-swimming larvae was greater than expected based on body size differences. Growth reductions in the preflexion larvae appear to be associated with increased metabolic rates and the transition from endogenous to exogenous feeding. In future studies, experiments should be integrated across life transitions to more clearly define intrinsic ontogenetic and size-dependent growth patterns because these are critical for evaluations of spatial and temporal variation in habitat quality.

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Biomass indices, from commercial catch per unit of effort (CPUE) or random trawl surveys, are commonly used in fisheries stock assessments. Uncertainty in such indices, often ex-pressed as a coefficient of variation (CV), has two components: observation error, and annual variation in catchability. Only the former can be estimated directly. As a result, the CVs used for these indices either ignore the annual-variation component or assume a value for it (often implicitly). Two types of data for New Zealand stocks were examined: 48 sets of residuals and catchability estimates from stock assessments using either CPUE or trawl survey indices; and biomass estimates from 17 time series of trawl surveys with between 4 and 25 species per time series. These data show clear evidence of significant annual variation in catchability. With the trawl survey data, catchability was detectably extreme for many species in about one year in six. The assessment data suggest that this annual variability typically has a CV of about 0.2. For commercial CPUE the variability is slightly less, and a typical total CV (including both components) of 0.15 to 0.2. This is much less than the values of 0.3 to 0.35 that have commonly been assumed in New Zealand. Some estimates of catchability are shown to be implausible.

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Chaotic behavior of closed loop pulsating heat pipes (PHPs) was studied. The PHPs were fabricated by capillary tubes with outer and inner diameters of 2.0 and 1.20 mm. FC-72 and deionized water were used as the working fluids. Experiments cover the following data ranges: number of turns of 4, 6, and 9, inclination angles from 5 degrees (near horizontal) to 90, (vertical), charge ratios from 50% to 80%, heating powers from 7.5 to 60.0 W. The nonlinear analysis is based on the recorded time series of temperatures on the evaporation, adiabatic, and condensation sections. The present study confirms that PHPs are deterministic chaotic systems. Autocorrelation functions (ACF) are decreased versus time, indicating prediction ability of the system is finite. Three typical attractor patterns are identified. Hurst exponents are very high, i.e., from 0.85 to 0.95, indicating very strong persistent properties of PHPs. Curves of correlation integral versus radius of hypersphere indicate two linear sections for water PHPs, corresponding to both high frequency, low amplitude, and low frequency, large amplitude oscillations. At small inclination angles near horizontal, correlation dimensions are not uniform at different turns of PHPs. The non-uniformity of correlation dimensions is significantly improved with increases in inclination angles. Effect of inclination angles on the chaotic parameters is complex for FC-72 PHPs, but it is certain that correlation dimensions and Kolmogorov entropies are increased with increases in inclination angles. The optimal charge ratios are about 60-70%, at which correlation dimensions and Kolmogorov entropies are high. The higher the heating power, the larger the correlation dimensions and Kolmogorov entropies are. For most runs, large correlation dimensions and Kolmogorov entropies correspond to small thermal resistances, i.e., better thermal performance, except for FC-72 PHPs at small inclination angles of theta < 15 degrees.

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We investigate the nanoscale periodic corrugation (NPC) structures on the dynamic fracture surface of a typical tough bulk metallic glass, submitted to high-velocity plate impact and scanned by atomic force microscopy (AFM). The detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) of the recorded AFM profiles reveals that the valley landscapes of the NPC are nearly memoryless, characterized by Hurst parameter of 0.52 and exhibiting a self-similar fractal character with the dimension of about 1.48. Our findings confirm the existence of the “quasi-cleavage” fracture underpinned by tension transformation zones (TTZs) in metallic glasses.

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Gunning, Jeroen, Hamas in Politics: Democracy, Religion, Violence (London: Hurst Publishers Ltd, 2007), pp.xiv+310 RAE2008

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http://www.archive.org/details/greenlandandothe00montuoft

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The objective of spatial downscaling strategies is to increase the information content of coarse datasets at smaller scales. In the case of quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) for hydrological applications, the goal is to close the scale gap between the spatial resolution of coarse datasets (e.g., gridded satellite precipitation products at resolution L × L) and the high resolution (l × l; L»l) necessary to capture the spatial features that determine spatial variability of water flows and water stores in the landscape. In essence, the downscaling process consists of weaving subgrid-scale heterogeneity over a desired range of wavelengths in the original field. The defining question is, which properties, statistical and otherwise, of the target field (the known observable at the desired spatial resolution) should be matched, with the caveat that downscaling methods be as a general as possible and therefore ideally without case-specific constraints and/or calibration requirements? Here, the attention is focused on two simple fractal downscaling methods using iterated functions systems (IFS) and fractal Brownian surfaces (FBS) that meet this requirement. The two methods were applied to disaggregate spatially 27 summertime convective storms in the central United States during 2007 at three consecutive times (1800, 2100, and 0000 UTC, thus 81 fields overall) from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) version 6 (V6) 3B42 precipitation product (~25-km grid spacing) to the same resolution as the NCEP stage IV products (~4-km grid spacing). Results from bilinear interpolation are used as the control. A fundamental distinction between IFS and FBS is that the latter implies a distribution of downscaled fields and thus an ensemble solution, whereas the former provides a single solution. The downscaling effectiveness is assessed using fractal measures (the spectral exponent β, fractal dimension D, Hurst coefficient H, and roughness amplitude R) and traditional operational scores statistics scores [false alarm rate (FR), probability of detection (PD), threat score (TS), and Heidke skill score (HSS)], as well as bias and the root-mean-square error (RMSE). The results show that both IFS and FBS fractal interpolation perform well with regard to operational skill scores, and they meet the additional requirement of generating structurally consistent fields. Furthermore, confidence intervals can be directly generated from the FBS ensemble. The results were used to diagnose errors relevant for hydrometeorological applications, in particular a spatial displacement with characteristic length of at least 50 km (2500 km2) in the location of peak rainfall intensities for the cases studied. © 2010 American Meteorological Society.

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Fire and evacuation models with features such as the ability to realistically simulate the spread of heat and smoke and the human response to fire as well as the capability to model human performance in heeled orientations linked to a virtual reality environment that produces realistic visualisation of the modelled scenarios are now available and can be used to aid the engineer in assessing ship design and procedures. This paper describes the maritimeEXODUS ship evacuation and the SMARTFIRE fire simulation model and provides an example application demonstrating the use of the models used in pperforming fire and evacuation analysis for a large passenger ship partially based on the requirements of MSC circular 1033.

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When designing a new passenger ship or modifying an existing design, how do we ensure that the proposed design and crew emergency procedures are safe from an evacuation resulting from fire or other incident? In the wake of major maritime disasters such as the Scandinavian Star, Herald of Free Enterprise, Estonia and in light of the growth in the number of high density, high-speed ferries and large capacity cruise ships, issues concerning the evacuation of passengers and crew at sea are receiving renewed interest. Fire and evacuation models with features such as the ability to realistically simulate the spread of heat and smoke and the human response to fire as well as the capability to model human performance in heeled orientations linked to a virtual reality environment that produces realistic visualisations of the modelled scenarios are now available and can be used to aid the engineer in assessing ship design and procedures. This paper describes the maritimeEXODUS ship evacuation and the SMARTFIRE fire simulation model and provides an example application demonstrating the use of the models in performing fire and evacuation analysis for a large passenger ship partially based on the requirements of MSC circular 1033

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When designing a new passenger ship or modifying an existing design, how do we ensure that the proposed design and crew emergency procedures are safe from an evacuation resulting from fire or other incident? In the wake of major maritime disasters such as the Scandinavian Star, Herald of Free Enterprise, Estonia and in light of the growth in the numbers of high density, high-speed ferries and large capacity cruise ships, issues concerning the evacuation of passengers and crew at sea are receiving renewed interest. Fire and evacuation models with features such as the ability to realistically simulate the spread of fire and fire suppression systems and the human response to fire as well as the capability to model human performance in heeled orientations linked to a virtual reality environment that produces realistic visualisations of the modelled scenarios are now available and can be used to aid the engineer in assessing ship design and procedures. This paper describes the maritimeEXODUS ship evacuation and the SMARTFIRE fire simulation model and provides an example application demonstrating the use of the models in performing fire and evacuation analysis for a large passenger ship partially based, but exceeding the requirements of MSC circular 1033.

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When designing a new passenger ship or modifying an existing design, how do we ensure that the proposed design and crew emergency procedures are safe from an evacuation resulting from fire or other incident? In the wake of major maritime disasters such as the Scandinavian Star, Herald of Free Enterprise, Estonia and in light of the growth in the numbers of high density high-speed ferries and large capacity cruise ships, issues concerning the evacuation of passengers and crew at sea are receiving renewed interest. Fire and evacuation models with features such as the ability to realistically simulate the spread of fire and fire suppression systems and the human response to fire sas well as the capability to model human performance in heeled orientations linked to a virtual reality environment that produces realistic visualisations of modelled scenarios are now available and can be used to aid the engineer in assessing ship design and procedures. This paper describes the maritmeEXODUS ship evacuation and the SMARTFIRE fire simulation model and provides an example application demonstrating the use of the models in performing fire and evacuation analysis for a large passenger ship partially based on the requirements of MSC circular 1033. The fire simulations include the action of a water mist system.

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