Wave forecasts associated with hurricane landfalls in the vicinity of Cape Lookout, North Carolina

Hurricanes can cause extensive damage to the coastline and coastal communities due to wind-generated waves and storm surge. While extensive modeling efforts have been conducted regarding storm surge, there is far less information about the effects of waves on these communities and ecosystems as storms make landfall. This report describes a preliminary use of NCCOS’ WEMo (Wave Exposure Model; Fonseca and Malhotra 2010) to compute the wind wave exposure within an area of approximately 25 miles radius from Beaufort, North Carolina for estuarine waters encompassing Bogue Sound, Back Sound and Core Sound during three hurricane landfall scenarios. The wind wave heights and energy of a site was a computation based on wind speed, direction, fetch and local bathymetry. We used our local area (Beaufort, North Carolina) as a test bed for this product because it is frequently impacted by hurricanes and we had confidence in the bathymetry data. Our test bed conditions were based on two recent Hurricanes that strongly affected this area. First, we used hurricane Isabel which made landfall near Beaufort in September 2003. Two hurricane simulations were run first by passing hurricane Isabel along its actual path (east of Beaufort) and second by passing the same storm to the west of Beaufort to show the potential effect of the reversed wind field. We then simulated impacts by a hurricane (Ophelia) with a different landfall track, which occurred in September of 2005. The simulations produced a geographic description of wave heights revealing the changing wind and wave exposure of the region as a consequence of landfall location and storm intensity. This highly conservative simulation (water levels were that of low tide) revealed that many inhabited and developed shorelines would receive wind waves for prolonged periods of time at heights far above that found during even the top few percent of non-hurricane events. The simulations also provided a sense for how rapidly conditions could transition from moderate to highly threatening; wave heights were shown to far exceed normal conditions often long before the main body of the storm arrived and importantly, at many locations that could impede and endanger late-fleeing vessels seeking safe harbor. When joined with other factors, such as storm surge and event duration, we anticipate that the WEMo forecasting tool will have significant use by local emergency agencies and the public to anticipate the relative exposure of their property arising as a function of storm location and may also be used by resource managers to examine the effects of storms in a quantitative fashion on local living marine resources.

Speed ambiguity in hurricane wind retrieval from SAR imagery

Under strong ocean surface wind conditions, the normalized radar cross section of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) is dampened at certain incident angles, compared with the signals under moderate winds. This causes a wind speed ambiguity problem in wind speed retrievals from SAR, because two solutions may exist for each backscattered signal. This study shows that the problem is ubiquitous in the images acquired by operational space-borne SAR sensors. Moreover, the problem is more severe for the near range and range travelling winds. To remove this ambiguity, a method was developed based on characteristics of the hurricane wind structure. A SAR image of Hurricane Rita (2005) was analysed to demonstrate the wind speed ambiguity problem and the method to improve the wind speed retrievals. Our conclusions suggest that a speed ambiguity removal algorithm must be used for wind retrievals from SAR in intense storms and hurricanes.

Rapid changes in stocks of ciliate microzooplankton associated with a hurricane in the Bohai Sea (China)

The ciliate community in the Bohai Sea (China) was studied from 23 September to 7 October 1998. A hurricane struck the study area between the 2 grid station investigations; which were 6 d apart. The ciliate biomass decreased drastically after the hurricane. The surface ciliate biomass decreased from 0.2-12.3 to 0.02-2.8 mug C l(-1) and the water column ciliate biomass from 2-136 to 0.01-47 mg C m(-2). The ciliate biomass:chlorophyll ratios in the surface water were calculated to be 0.04 to 4.7 (1.41 on average) during the first grid investigation and 0.01 to 1.18 (0.26 on average) during the second grid investigation. Distinct patterns of temporal changes in ciliate abundances were found at different stations both before and after the hurricane.

1968-1969 Progress Report

This report mainly summarizes the Project MAC A.I. Group work between July 1968 and June 1969 but covers some work up to February 1970. The work on computer vision is described in detail. This summary should be read in conjunction with last year's A.I. Group Report which is included at the end of this Memo.

Cancer mortality in IBM endicott plant workers, 1969-2001: An update on a NY production plant

BACKGROUND: In response to concerns expressed by workers at a public meeting, we analyzed the mortality experience of workers who were employed at the IBM plant in Endicott, New York and died between 1969-2001. An epidemiologic feasibility assessment indicated potential worker exposure to several known and suspected carcinogens at this plant. METHODS: We used the mortality and work history files produced under a court order and used in a previous mortality analysis. Using publicly available data for the state of New York as a standard of comparison, we conducted proportional cancer mortality (PCMR) analysis. RESULTS: The results showed significantly increased mortality due to melanoma (PCMR = 367; 95% CI: 119, 856) and lymphoma (PCMR = 220; 95% CI: 101, 419) in males and modestly increased mortality due to kidney cancer (PCMR = 165; 95% CI: 45, 421) and brain cancer (PCMR = 190; 95% CI: 52, 485) in males and breast cancer (PCMR = 126; 95% CI: 34, 321) in females. CONCLUSION: These results are similar to results from a previous IBM mortality study and support the need for a full cohort mortality analysis such as the one being planned by the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health.

Anglo-Irish relations in the framework of the EEC and Northern Ireland, 1969-1975

This thesis will analyse Anglo-Irish relations between 1969 and 1975, when two topics dominated the relationship: Northern Ireland and the entry of Britain and Ireland into the European Economic Community (hereafter EEC). In 1969 entry to the EEC was still only a possibility and awaited political developments, while the Northern Ireland problem had yet to escalate. 1975 on the other hand confirmed that Ireland would remain in the EEC even if Britain left while Direct Rule for Northern Ireland was confirmed as the British policy for the foreseeable future. These dates are significant because they encompass firstly pre and post entry to the EEC and how this transformed Anglo-Irish relations. Secondly they contain the commencement and then deterioration of the Northern Ireland problem and the attempts to resolve it that finally led to direct rule by Westminster. The study will examine the fluctuating nature of the relationship between Britain and Ireland. Special regard will be devoted to the demands of internal British politics and how such demands affected the relationship. Overall, the study will demonstrate how the bilateral relationship evolved under the pressure of events in Northern Ireland and adapted to the multilateral context of the EEC. It will compare the dynamics of the states’ interactions in two extremely different areas. The thesis will demonstrate how entry to the EEC transformed the unequal Anglo-Irish economic relationship and created one of partners within the EEC. It will also analyse how the developing Northern Ireland problem caused changes to British policy. In particular, it will examine how the British Government came to recognise the beneficial role that the Republic of Ireland might play in resolving the Troubles in Northern Ireland.

THE LESSER-KNOWN PIANO CHAMBER MUSIC OF CAMILLE SAINT-SAENS: A RECORDING PROJECT

Throughout his long and industrious lifetime, Camille Saint-Saens (1835-1921) devoted himself unconditionally to music both as a composer and a performer. Saint-Saens was a self-described traditionalist and musical purist, yet his works are distinctly expressive and imaginative, and they reflect the composer's own unique musical language which incorporates recognizably modem traits such as chromaticism and frequent modulation. As a performer, Saint-Saens preferred to premiere his own works and often included his chamber music in his concert programs. Regarded primarily as a symphonic composer in the present day, however, his extensive and varied collection of chamber music works is sadly neglected. Six varied small-ensemble works with piano from his chamber music repertoire have been selected for study and recording for this project: Piano Trio No. 1 in F Major, Op. 18 (1864); Sonata for Cello and Piano No. 1 inC Minor, Op. 32 (1872); two pieces for two pianos, Le Rouet d'Omphale (The Spinning Wheel ofOmphale), Op. 31 (1871) and Phaeton, Op. 39 (1874); piano duet Konig Harald Haifagar (King Harald Haarfager), Op. 59 (1880); and a wind quartet, Caprice sur des airs Danois et Russes (Caprice on Danish and Russian Airs) for Flute, Oboe, Clarinet and Piano, Op. 79 (1887). Analyses of the forms and harmonic structures of these compositions will be included in this dissertation paper as well as studies from the viewpoint of Saint-Saens' compositional style, ensemble characteristics, and writing for the piano. The recordings for this project were made in four sessions in LeFrak Concert Hall at Queens College, the City University of New York. On September 24, 2003, Op. 31, Op. 39 and Op. 59 were recorded with Professor Morey Ritt, piano. On March 2, 2004, Op. 18 was recorded with Elena Rojas, violin, and Clare Liu, cello, and on March 15, 2004, Op. 32 was recorded, also with Ms. Liu. The Caprice, Op. 79 was recorded on June 27, 2008 with Laura Conwesser, flute; Randall Wolfgang, oboe; and Steve Hartman, clarinet. The recordings may be found on file in the library at the University of Maryland, College Park.

Hazard and risk assessment from Hurricane Ivan (2004) in Grenada using Geographical Information Systems and remote sensing

Hurricanes are destructive storms with strong winds, intense storm surges, and heavy rainfall. The resulting impact from a hurricane can include structural damage to buildings and infrastructure, flooding, and ultimately loss of human life. This paper seeks to identify the impact of Hurricane Ivan on the aected population of Grenada, one of the Caribbean islands. Hurricane Ivan made landfall on 7th September 2004 and resulted in 80% of the population being adversely aected. The methods that were used to model these impacts involved performing hazard and risk assessments using GIS and remote sensing techniques. Spatial analyses were used to create a hazard and a risk map. Hazards were identied initially as those caused by storm surges, severe winds speeds, and flooding events related to Hurricane Ivan. These estimated hazards were then used to create a risk map. An innovative approach was adopted, including the use of hillshading to assess the damage caused by high wind speeds. This paper explains in detail the methodology used and the results produced.

Cine policíaco del tardofranquismo: El thriller en el “Período Oscuro” del cine español (1969-1975)

Definición de la etapa de crisis del aparato cinematográfico franquista, llamada aquí “Período Oscuro” (1969-1975), discusión de la etiqueta de subgéneros aplicada al cinema bis de la época, y caracterización histórica del thriller español y de sus corrientes estéticas y conceptuales internas en dicho período. La acotación del período 1969-1975 es clarificada previamente ante el vacío historiográfico al respecto. Se caracteriza la crisis que tiene lugar en el “Período Oscuro”, desde su comienzo oficial en 1969, que supuso el definitivo cierre de las políticas proteccionistas emprendidas por el Director General de Cinematografía García Escudero en 1962. Después se define y discute la etiqueta de subgéneros aplicada tradicionalmente al cine español de género de bajo presupuesto. Luego, se especifican, definen y analizan las diversas categorías dentro del thriller español de 1969-1975: se trata de categorías temáticas y argumentales, estéticas, o bien relacionadas con corrientes internacionales del policíaco europeo. Por último, se extraen las conclusiones pertinentes.