The impact of regulatory reforms on the earnings forecasting behaviour of IPO firms

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to jointly assess the impact of regulatory reform for corporate fundraising in Australia (CLERP Act 1999) and the relaxation of ASX admission rules in 1999, on the accuracy of management earnings forecasts in initial public offer (IPO) prospectuses. The relaxation of ASX listing rules permitted a new category of new economy firms (commitments test entities (CTEs))to list without a prior history of profitability, while the CLERP Act (introduced in 2000) was accompanied by tighter disclosure obligations and stronger enforcement action by the corporate regulator (ASIC). Design/methodology/approach – All IPO earnings forecasts in prospectuses lodged between 1998 and 2003 are examined to assess the pre- and post-CLERP Act impact. Based on active ASIC enforcement action in the post-reform period, IPO firms are hypothesised to provide more accurate forecasts, particularly CTE firms, which are less likely to have a reasonable basis for forecasting. Research models are developed to empirically test the impact of the reforms on CTE and non-CTE IPO firms. Findings – The new regulatory environment has had a positive impact on management forecasting behaviour. In the post-CLERP Act period, the accuracy of prospectus forecasts and their revisions significantly improved and, as expected, the results are primarily driven by CTE firms. However, the majority of prospectus forecasts continue to be materially inaccurate. Originality/value – The results highlight the need to control for both the changing nature of listed firms and the level of enforcement action when examining responses to regulatory changes to corporate fundraising activities.

The impact of infrastructure charges on new housing costs : an international comparison

Sourcing funding for the provision of new urban infrastructure has been a policy dilemma for governments around the world for decades. This is particularly relevant in high growth areas where new services are required to support swelling populations. Existing communities resist the introduction of new taxes to fund such infrastructure, hence the introduction of charges to the developer has flourished. The Australian infrastructure funding policy dilemmas are reflective of similar matters to some extent in the United Kingdom, and to a greater extent the United States of America. In these countries, infrastructure cost recovery policies have been in place since the 1940’s and 1970’s respectively. There is an extensive body of theoretical and empirical literature that discusses the passing on (to home buyers) or passing back (to the englobo land seller) of these increased infrastructure charges, and the corresponding impact on housing cost and supply. The purpose of this research is to examine the international evidence that suggests infrastructure charges contribute to increased house prices as well as reduced land supply. The paper concludes that whilst the theoretical work is largely consistent, the empirical research to date is inconclusive and further research is required into these impacts in Australia.

Pollutant concentrations within households in Lao PDR and association with housing characteristics and occupants' activities

The paper presents the results of a study conducted to investigate indoor air quality within residential dwellings in Lao PDR. Results from PM 10, CO, and NO2 measurements inside 167 dwellings in Lao PDR over a five month period (December 2005-April 2006) are discussed as a function of household characteristics and occupant activities. Extremely high PM10 and NO2 concentrations (12 h mean PM10 concentrations 1275 ± 98 μg m-3 and 1183 ± 99 μg m-3 in Vientiane and Bolikhamxay provinces, respectively; 12 h mean NO2 concentrations 1210 ± 94 μg m-3 and 561 ± 45 μg m-3 in Vientiane and Bolikhamxay, respectively) were measured within the dwellings. Correlations, ANOVA analysis (univariate and multivariate), and linear regression results suggest a substantial contribution from cookingandsmoking.The PM10 concentrations were significantly higher in houses without a chimney compared to houses in which cooking occurred on a stove with a chimney. However, no significant differences in pollutantconcentrations were observed as a function of cooking location. Furthermore, PM10 and NO2 concentrations were higher in houses in which smoking occurred, suggestive of a relationship between increased indoor concentrations and smoking (0.05 < p < 0.10). Resuspension of dust from soil floors was another significant source of PM10 inside the house (634 μg m-3, p < 0.05).

The effect of housing characteristics and occupant activities on the respiratory health of women and children in Lao PDR

The paper presents the results of a study conducted into the relationship between dwelling characteristics and occupant activities with the respiratory health of resident women and children in Lao People’s Democratic Republic (PDR). Lao is one of the least developed countries in south-east Asia with poor life expectancies and mortality rates. The study, commissioned by the World Health Organisation, included questionnaires delivered to residents of 356 dwellings in nine districts in Lao PDR over a five month period (December 2005-April 2006), with the aim of identifying the association between respiratory health and indoor air pollution, in particular exposures related to indoor biomass burning. Adjusted odds ratios were calculated for each health outcome separately using binary logistic regression. After adjusting for age, a wide range of symptoms of respiratory illness in women and children aged 1-4 years were positively associated with a range of indoor exposures related to indoor cooking, including exposure to a fire and location of the cooking place. Among women, “dust always inside the house” and smoking were also identified as strong risk factors for respiratory illness. Other strong risk factors for children, after adjusting for age and gender, included dust and drying clothes inside. This analysis confirms the role of indoor air pollution in the burden of disease among women and children in Lao PDR.

Sustainable housing: family experiences with supply chain ethics

Climate change, resource depletion and increasing urbanization are converging global issues that are challenging the way we design, construct and operate buildings. The housing sector is a significant contributor to these global issues through consumption of limited resources, waste generation and disposal (solid, liquid and atmospheric waste) and negative human health impacts (Senick 2006). Although the design and construction of ‘sustainable housing’ would appear to be an obvious and technically feasible solution, there remains multi-faceted issues affecting the delivery of sustainable housing (Holloway and Bunker 2006). Two fundamental issues - what makes a house sustainable, and to what extent regulation should be used to deliver sustainability - have been, and continue to be, debated at multiple levels in society. Despite personal, professional and political views on these issues, three key characteristics of the whole housing supply chain require fundamental change if we are to successfully address sustainability challenges (Birkeland 2008). These include: fragmentation; established methods, practices and processes, and the relationships between players. A more in-depth understanding of the role of ethics (values, beliefs and standards) and potential ethical conflicts within the supply chain will assist in better defining the nature of the fundamental changes required...

Rebuilding housing after a disaster : factors for failure

Disasters, particularly those triggered by nature are often followed by a swift humanitarian relief response to address the resultant emergencies. These efforts are then transitioned through the medium recovery stage, eventually aimed at providing a long term post-disaster reconstruction solution. Emergency humanitarian relief focuses on responding to the immediate need for restoration of basic services, medical treatment and medical supplies, food and temporary shelter, and is a short term strenuous effort. Reconstruction of permanent houses, on the other hand, is a continuous process that often requires decades of effort to return a community to normality. Whilst emergency relief is generally perceived to be very effective, post-disaster housing reconstruction projects often fail to meet their set objectives. This paper outlines and discusses factors that contribute to the failure of post-disaster housing reconstruction projects and the subsequent immediate and long term negative impacts of failure on project outcomes.

An analysis of holding cost impact on housing affordability in relation to midsized Greenfield residential property developments in South East Queensland

The position of housing demand and supply is not consistent. The Australian situation counters the experience demonstrated in many other parts of the world in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis, with residential housing prices proving particularly resilient. A seemingly inexorable housing demand remains a critical issue affecting the socio-economic landscape. Underpinned by high levels of population growth fuelled by immigration, and further buoyed by sustained historically low interest rates, increasing income levels, and increased government assistance for first home buyers, this strong housing demand level ensures problems related to housing affordability continue almost unabated. A significant, but less visible factor impacting housing affordability relates to holding costs. Although only one contributor in the housing affordability matrix, the nature and extent of holding cost impact requires elucidation: for example, the computation and methodology behind the calculation of holding costs varies widely - and in some instances completely ignored. In addition, ambiguity exists in terms of the inclusion of various elements that comprise holding costs, thereby affecting the assessment of their relative contribution. Such anomalies may be explained by considering that assessment is conducted over time in an ever-changing environment. A strong relationship with opportunity cost - in turn dependant inter alia upon prevailing inflation and / or interest rates - adds further complexity. By extending research in the general area of housing affordability, this thesis seeks to provide a detailed investigation of those elements related to holding costs specifically in the context of midsized (i.e. between 15-200 lots) greenfield residential property developments in South East Queensland. With the dimensions of holding costs and their influence over housing affordability determined, the null hypothesis H0 that holding costs are not passed on can be addressed. Arriving at these conclusions involves the development of robust economic and econometric models which seek to clarify the componentry impacts of holding cost elements. An explanatory sequential design research methodology has been adopted, whereby the compilation and analysis of quantitative data and the development of an economic model is informed by the subsequent collection and analysis of primarily qualitative data derived from surveying development related organisations. Ultimately, there are significant policy implications in relation to the framework used in Australian jurisdictions that promote, retain, or otherwise maximise, the opportunities for affordable housing.

Industrialized housing in China : a coin with two sides

China today is experiencing a time when housing is needed more than ever and one approach satisfying this need is by industrialization - a streamlined process aimed at generating profits and promoting energy efficiency in the housing sectors. Although large housing programs have been completed in China, few housing projects have been built in an industrialized manner. One contributing factor is that industrialization is not omnipotent and, just as a coin has two sides, not all the outcomes of industrialization are beneficial. In this paper, a preliminary assessment is made of these two sides - the benefits and hindrances of industrialized housing in China - by literature review and survey. Case studies are used to verify the questionnaire survey results and from which the advantages and disadvantages involved are compared. The findings indicate the need for formulating policies to encourage industrialized housing in China and for well-planned R&D themes to be implemented simultaneously with industry practices in the near future.

Which Women are More Likely to be Abused? Public Housing, Cohabitation and Separated/Divorced Women.

Data collected at Canadian public housing estates in eastern Ontario are used here to analyze two hypotheses. Overall these women report more violence than do otherwise situated women in other general surveys. More specifically, complex theoretical models were designed to generate two hypotheses for further analysis: First, that separated/divorced women are more likely to be abused within public housing than married women. Second, that cohabiting women will report violence victimization at a higher rate than separated, divorced, or married women. Some support for both hypotheses were found, and the theoretical models are used to discuss these findings.

Semi-parametric forecasting of realized volatility

Forecasts generated by time series models traditionally place greater weight on more recent observations. This paper develops an alternative semi-parametric method for forecasting that does not rely on this convention and applies it to the problem of forecasting asset return volatility. In this approach, a forecast is a weighted average of historical volatility, with the greatest weight given to periods that exhibit similar market conditions to the time at which the forecast is being formed. Weighting is determined by comparing short-term trends in volatility across time (as a measure of market conditions) by means of a multivariate kernel scheme. It is found that the semi-parametric method produces forecasts that are significantly more accurate than a number of competing approaches at both short and long forecast horizons.

The implementation of sustainable housing through mutual benefits to key stakeholders

Among the Australian general public, there are increasing concerns about environmental issues. Accordingly, sustainability in the housing industry is also becoming a priority on the development agenda. However, putting the principles of ecological sustainability into practice within social and economic development requires intensive involvement of major stakeholders such as governments, developers, builders, consumers and a range of other professionals. Establishing a sustainable value entails asymmetric life-cycle returns, making it important for major stakeholders to appreciate the benefits of this new agenda not only for the individual businesses but also for other supply chain partners. This context warrants the study to promote collective benefits for key stakeholders by establishing a mutual-benefit framework for sustainable housing implementation. A research was carried out in the hope to establish a mutual-benefit framework by investigating challenges of achieving benefits (CABs) from sustainable housing development in a multi-stakeholder context. In the research work reported in this article, a comparative questionnaire study was first conducted among seven stakeholder groups in the Australian housing industry, to examine the importance and inter-relationships of CABs. In-depth interviews then furthered the survey findings with a focus on stakeholder diversity. The synthesized findings of the survey and interview study lead to the identification of 12 critical mutual-benefit factors and their mutual influence. Based on such a platform, a systematic framework is developed with the aid of Interpretive Structural Modelling (ISM), to identify the patterns of stakeholder benefit materialisation, suggest the priority of critical factors and provide related stakeholder-specific action guide for sustainable housing implementation.