Planejamento regional do turismo no Vale do Paraíba: estudo de caso na micro-região de Bananal - SP

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

An assessment of the economic and social impacts of climate change on the tourism sector in the Caribbean

There are significant, fundamental changes taking place in global air and sea surface temperatures and sea levels. The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change noted that many of the warmest years on the instrumental record of global surface temperatures have occurred within the last twelve years, i.e. 1995-2006 (IPCC, 2007). The Caribbean tourism product is particularly vulnerable to climate change. On the demand side, mitigation measures in other countries – for example, measures to reduce the consumption of fossil fuels – could have implications for airfares and cruise prices and, therefore, for the demand for travel, particularly to long-haul destinations such as the Caribbean (Clayton, 2009). On the supply side, sea level rise will cause beaches to disappear and damage coastal resorts. Changes in the frequency and severity of hurricanes are likely to magnify that damage. Other indirect impacts on the tourism product include rising insurance premiums and competition for water resources (Cashman, Cumberbatch, & Moore, 2012). The present report has used information on historic and future Caribbean climate data to calculate that the Caribbean tourism climatic index (TCI) ranges from −20 (impossible) to +100 (ideal). In addition to projections for the Caribbean, the report has produced TCI projections for the New York City area (specifically, Central Park), which have been used as comparators for Caribbean country projections. The conditions in the source market provide a benchmark against which visitors may judge their experience in the tourism destination. The historical and forecasted TCIs for the Caribbean under both the A2 and B2 climate scenarios of the IPCC suggest that climatic conditions in the Caribbean are expected to deteriorate, and are likely to become less conducive to tourism. More specifically, the greatest decline in the TCI is likely to occur during the northern hemisphere summer months from May to September. At the same time, the scenario analysis indicates that home conditions during the traditional tourist season (December – April) are likely to improve, which could make it more attractive for visitors from these markets to consider ‘staycations’ as an alternative to overseas trips.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the tourism sector in Montserrat

This report provides an analysis and evaluation of the likely effects of climate change on the tourism sector in Montserrat. Clayton (2009) identifies three reasons why the Caribbean should be concerned about the potential effects of climate change on tourism: (a) the relatively high dependence on tourism as a source of foreign exchange and employment; (b) the intrinsic vulnerability of small islands and their infrastructure (e.g. hotels and resorts) to sea level rise and extreme climatic events (e.g. hurricanes and floods); and, (c) the high dependence of the regional tourist industry on carbon-based fuels (both to bring tourist to the region as well as to provide support services in the region). The effects of climate change are already being felt on the island. Between 1970 and 2009, there was a rise in the number of relatively hot days experienced on the island. Added to this, there was also a decline in mean precipitation over the period. Besides temperature, there is also the threat of wind speeds. Since the early 20th century, the number of hurricanes passing through the Caribbean has risen from about 5-6 per year to more than 25 in some years of the twenty-first century. In Montserrat, the estimated damage from four windstorms (including hurricanes) affecting the island was US$260 million or almost five times 2009 gross domestic product (GDP). Climate change is also likely to significantly affect coral reefs. Hoegh-Guldberg (2007) estimates that should current concentrations of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere rise from 380ppm to 560ppm, decreases in coral calcification and growth by 40% are likely. The report attempted to quantify the likely effects of the changes in the climatic factors mentioned above. As it relates to temperature and other climatic variables, a tourism climatic index that captures the elements of climate that impact on a destination’s experience was constructed. The index was calculated using historical observations as well as those under two likely climate scenarios: A2 and B2. The results suggest that under both scenarios, the island’s key tourism climatic features will likely decline and therefore negatively impact on the destination experience of visitors. Including this tourism climatic index in a tourism demand model suggests that this would translate into losses of around 145% of GDP. As it relates to coral reefs, the value of the damage due to the loss of coral reefs was estimated at 7.6 times GDP, while the damage due to land loss for the tourism industry was 45% of GDP. The total cost of climate change for the tourism industry was therefore projected to be 9.6 times 2009 GDP over a 40-year horizon. Given the potential for significant damage to the industry, a large number of potential adaptation measures were considered. Out of these, a short-list of 9 potential options was selected using 10 evaluation criteria. These included: (a) Increasing recommended design wind speeds for new tourism-related structures; (b) Construction of water storage tanks; (c) Irrigation network that allows for the recycling of waste water; (d) Enhanced reef monitoring systems to provide early warning alerts of bleaching events; (e) Deployment of artificial reefs and fish-aggregating devices; (f) Developing national evacuation and rescue plans; (g) Introduction of alternative attractions; (h) Providing re-training for displaced tourism workers, and; (i) Revised policies related to financing national tourism offices to accommodate the new climatic realities Using cost-benefit analysis, three options were put forward as being financially viable and ready for immediate implementation: (a) Increase recommended design speeds for new tourism-related structures; (b) Enhance reef monitoring systems to provide early warning alerts of bleaching events, and; (c) Deploy artificial reefs or fish-aggregating devices. While these options had positive benefit cost ratios, other options were also recommended based on their non-tangible benefits: an irrigation network that allows for the recycling of waste water, development of national evacuation and rescue plans, providing retraining for displaced tourism workers and the revision of policies related to financing national tourism offices to accommodate the new climatic realities.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the tourism sector in Saint Lucia

This report provides an analysis and evaluation of the likely effects of climate change on the tourism sector in Saint Lucia. Clayton (2009) identifies three reasons why the Caribbean should be concerned about the potential effects of climate change on tourism: (a) the relatively high dependence on tourism as a source of foreign exchange and employment; (b) the intrinsic vulnerability of small islands and their infrastructure (e.g. hotels and resorts) to sea level rise and extreme climatic events (e.g. hurricanes and floods); and, (c) the high dependence of the regional tourist industry on carbon-based fuels (both to bring tourist to the region as well as to provide support services in the region). The effects of climate change are already being felt on the island. Between 1970 and 2009 there was a rise in the number of relatively hot days experienced on the island. Added to this, there was also a decline in mean precipitation over the period. In addition to temperature, there is also the threat of increased wind speeds. Since the early twentieth century, the number of hurricanes passing through the Caribbean has risen from about 5-6 per year to more than 25 in some years of the twenty-first century. In Saint Lucia, the estimated damage from 12 windstorms (including hurricanes) affecting the island was US$1 billion or about 106% of 2009 GDP. Climate change is also likely to significantly affect coral reefs. Hoegh-Guldberg (2007) estimates that should current concentrations of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere rise from 380ppm to 560ppm, decreases in coral calcification and growth by 40% are likely. This report attempted to quantify the likely effects of the changes in the climatic factors mentioned above on the economy of Saint Lucia. As it relates to temperature and other climatic variables, a tourism climatic index that captures the elements of climate that impact on a destination’s experience was constructed. The index was calculated using historical observations, as well as those under two, likely, Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) climate scenarios: A2 and B2.

Memória ambiental, cultural e turismo no vale histórico do Rio Paraíba do Sul: design de uma pesquisa

This text is aimed at disseminating cultural and environmental wealth of a region little known of major tour operators - which is strongly marked by historical traditions, in a bucolic rural still and by the hospitality of its residents. The Historic Valley of Rio Paraíba do Sul, although located in the Rio - Sao Paulo road lives in the shadow of the remarkable progress of the industrial cities in the main Valley. This paper presents results of research that deepened the knowledge of this region, with notable findings from the standpoint of culture and tourism, regional and national history. Isolated by considerable geographical barriers, this region has two aspects: the rebirth of nature after the decline of coffee plantations, with ecological sanctuaries that can now point toward environmental sustainability, and the formation of a culture with two historical times - refinement inherited from the barons coffee, paradoxically linked to the rustic countryside and modernity derived of its proximity to major centers. The results presented here are part of exploratory research, but were presented at different events, emphasizing the baroque character of practices derived from these two historical times and tourist potential related to the “cultura tropeira” and to hospitality that marks this countryside.

La Ricostruzione 3D di Bologna nel XVI Secolo

Il lavoro presentato ha come oggetto la ricostruzione tridimensionale della città di Bologna nella sua fase rinascimentale. Tale lavoro vuole fornire un modello 3D delle architetture e degli spazi urbani utilizzabile sia per scopi di ricerca nell’ambito della storia delle città sia per un uso didattico-divulgativo nel settore del turismo culturale. La base del lavoro è una fonte iconografica di grande importanza: l’affresco raffigurante Bologna risalente al 1575 e situato in Vaticano; questa è una veduta a volo d’uccello di grandi dimensioni dell’intero tessuto urbano bolognese all’interno della terza cerchia di mura. In esso sono rappresentate in maniera particolareggiata le architetture civili e ecclesiastiche, gli spazi ortivi e cortilivi interni agli isolati e alcune importanti strutture urbane presenti in città alla fine del Cinquecento, come l’area portuale e i canali interni alla città, oggi non più visibili. La ricostruzione tridimensionale è stata realizzata tramite Blender, software per la modellazione 3D opensource, attraverso le fasi di modellazione, texturing e creazione materiali (mediante campionamento delle principali cromie presenti nell’affresco), illuminazione e animazione. Una parte della modellazione è stata poi testata all’interno di un GIS per verificare l’utilizzo delle geometrie 3D come elementi collegabili ad altre fonti storiche relative allo sviluppo urbano e quindi sfruttabili per la ricerca storica. Grande attenzione infine è stata data all’uso dei modelli virtuali a scopo didattico-divulgativo e per il turismo culturale. La modellazione è stata utilizzata all’interno di un motore grafico 3D per costruire un ambiente virtuale interattivo nel quale un utente anche non esperto possa muoversi per esplorare gli spazi urbani della Bologna del Cinquecento. In ultimo è stato impostato lo sviluppo di un’applicazione per sistemi mobile (Iphone e Ipad) al fine di fornire uno strumento per la conoscenza della città storica in mobilità, attraverso la comparazione dello stato attuale con quello ricostruito virtualmente.

Slow Cities: Sustainable Places in a Fast World

This article examines the Slow Food and Slow City movement as an alternative approach to urban development that focuses on local resources, economic and cultural strengths, and the unique historical context of a town. Following recent discussions about the politics of alternative economic development, the study examines the Slow City movement as a strategy to address the interdependencies between goals for economic, environmental, and equitable urban development. In particular, we draw on the examples of two Slow Cities in Germany—Waldkirch and Hersbruck, and show how these towns are retooling their urban policies. The study is placed in the context of alternative urban development agendas as opposed to corporate-centered development. We conclude the article by offering some remarks about the institutional and political attributes of successful Slow Cities and the transferability of the concept.

The Economic Value of Residential Land in Historical Areas: An Application of the Residual Method to the Secondary Market

Land value bears significant weight in house prices in historical town centers. An essential aim for regulating the mortgage market, particularly in the financial and property crisis that countries such as Spain are undergoing, is to have at hand objective procedures for its valuation, whatever the conditions (location, construction, planning). Of all the factors contributing to house price make-up, the land is the only one whose value does not depend on acquisition cost, but rather on the location-time binomial. That is to say, the specific circumstances at that point and at the exact moment of valuation. For this reason, the most commonly applied procedure for land valuation in town centers is the use of the residual method: once the selling price of new housing in a district is known, the other necessary costs and expenses of development are deducted, including those of building and the developer’s profit. The value left is that of the land. To apply these procedures it is vital to have figures such as building costs, technical fees, tax costs, etc. But, above all, it is essential to obtain the selling price of the new housing. This is not always feasible, on account of the lack of newbuild development in this location. This shortage of information occurs in historical town cities, where urban renewal is slight due to the heritage-protection policies, and where, nevertheless there is substantial activity in the secondary market. In these circumstances, as an alternative for land valuation in consolidated urban areas, we have the adaptation of the residual method to the particular characteristics of the secondary market. To these ends, there is the proposal for the appreciation of the dwelling which follows, in a backwards direction, the application of traditional depreciation methods proposed by the various valuation manuals and guidelines. The reliability of the results obtained is analyzed by contrasting it with published figures for newly-built properties, according to different rules applied in administrative appraisals in Spain and the incidence of an eventual correction due to conservation state.

The historical heritage of domestic architecture is a reliable model for a satisfactory design. The case of the Mediterranean region

The purpose of this paper is to expose the importance of observing cultural systems present in a territory as a reference for the design of urban infrastructures in the new cities and regions of rapid development. If we accept the idea that architecture is an instrument or cultural system developed by man to act as an intermediary to the environment, it is necessary to understand the elemental interaction between man and his environment to meet a satisfactory design. To illustrate this purpose, we present the case of the Eurasian Mediterranean region, where the architectural culture acts as a cultural system of adaptation to the environment and it is formed by an ancient process of selection. From simple observation of architectural types, construction systems and environmental mechanisms treasured in mediterranean historical heritage we can extract crucial information about this elemental interaction. Mediterranean architectural culture has environmental mechanisms responding to the needs of basics habitability, ethnics and passive conditioning. These mechanisms can be basis of an innovative design without compromising the diversity and lifestyles of human groups in the region. The main fundament of our investigation is the determination of the historical heritage of domestic architecture as holder of the formation process of these mechanisms. The result allows us to affirm that the successful introduction of new urban infrastructures in an area need a reliable reference and it must be a cultural system that entailing in essence the environmental conditioning of human existence. The urban infrastructures must be sustainable, understood and accepted by the inhabitants. The last condition is more important when the urban infrastructures are implemented in areas that are developing rapidly or when there is no architectural culture.

Urban Archaeology in Madrid. Experiences and Opportunities to Understand Historical City

In 2015, it will be thirty years since Spanish Historic Heritage Law from 1985 was approved. The results after three decades under this law are necessarily positive and witness how the complex autonomous regional legislation has been promoted, guided and organized in this Heritage field. In addition, the law enforcement has brought into the scene how the numerous public and private initiatives involved in caring, managing, protecting and restoring our cultural heritage have been channeled and regulated, as well as monitoring the impact these initiatives produce on urban archaeology. During this long period of Spanish recent history, cultural heritage -understood as an important development tool, especially when related to cultural tourism- has succeeded in channeling resources for developing the historical research projects, both documental and archaeological, that the Spanish monumental urban ensembles were requiring. In this context, the case of the city of Madrid is a clear example of the significant development that urban Historical Archaeology has experienced in Spain over the last thirty years, especially when dealing with the study of the Middle Ages (8th to 15th centuries) and the Modern Age (16th to 18th centuries). Given the number of interventions and the important results obtained by many of them, Madrid urban archaeology is an extraordinary example of the consequences of implementing new management models, changing criteria and operating procedures, and also, of course, of the conflicts and debates raised regarding heritage, as well as the importance these interventions have implied, which is the main aim of this work.

Uzbekistán: la configuración de un nuevo estado. Especial referencia al estatus de la mujer

Uzbekistan has a long and interesting heritage of ancient civilization linked to the historic “Silk Road”, through which transited people, goods, ideas and cultures. The major cities of the Silk Road - Samarkand, Bukhara, and Khiva are testimonies of the past and leave a deep impression on any visitor. As time goes by, Uzbekistan has become a key country in the whole Central Asian region, because it possesses mineral, agricultural and natural resources and has a huge potential for development. It is rich in energy resources such as oil and gas, but it is very difficult to commercialize them due to its landlocked position. The historical legacy of the Republic of Uzbekistan is a valuable heritage. The above mentioned ancient cities used to be centers of science and art, where important architects created palaces, mosques, madrassas, minarets, and mausoleums of the Islamic style, that still exist today. This cultural wealth is an element of internal cohesion and external outreach towards Islamic heritage, related to such Muslim countries as Turkey and the Gulf States. Moreover, this historical and architectural heritage has enormous economic potential for tourism, which can contribute to strengthen the relations of cooperation and friendship between Uzbekistan and the International Society. The influence of tradition and culture has still a huge impact on the society. This can be felt for example, in the traditional gender roles distribution. As a result of which, meńs presence in the areas of decision making is still slightly higher than womeńs one...

International residential tourism in north east Brazil: a stakeholder analysis

This paper analyses the system of actors involved in the development of residential tourism on the north east coast of Brazil. The study observes the socio-political effects of the 2001-2008 real estate boom, focused on the promotion of second homes in closed residential areas. Stakeholder Analysis (SA) is used to identify the various actors’ roles and positions within a particular social space in a tourist setting which is exposed to transnational and real estate interests. The method reveals an unequal and conflict-ridden social reality. The results show that residential tourism shapes the local socio-political configuration, strengthening some actors (urban developers, real estate companies) whilst positioning others in a situation of dependence (local communities, cities).

A Computational Architecture Based on RFID Sensors for Traceability in Smart Cities

Information Technology and Communications (ICT) is presented as the main element in order to achieve more efficient and sustainable city resource management, while making sure that the needs of the citizens to improve their quality of life are satisfied. A key element will be the creation of new systems that allow the acquisition of context information, automatically and transparently, in order to provide it to decision support systems. In this paper, we present a novel distributed system for obtaining, representing and providing the flow and movement of people in densely populated geographical areas. In order to accomplish these tasks, we propose the design of a smart sensor network based on RFID communication technologies, reliability patterns and integration techniques. Contrary to other proposals, this system represents a comprehensive solution that permits the acquisition of user information in a transparent and reliable way in a non-controlled and heterogeneous environment. This knowledge will be useful in moving towards the design of smart cities in which decision support on transport strategies, business evaluation or initiatives in the tourism sector will be supported by real relevant information. As a final result, a case study will be presented which will allow the validation of the proposal.

Tourism potential analysis of the castles of Vinalopó, Spain: an opportunity for social and tourist development of cultural heritage

Within the overall framework of the renewal process of coastal tourist destinations, cultural heritage has frequently been used as a key argument for the introduction and development of strategies for the diversification and differentiation of the traditional tourist product based on sun and sand. This is the situation of the province of Alicante, identified with the Costa Blanca geotourism brand, where there are important economic issues that could contribute to the renewal of this coastal tourist destination. One of the most significant heritage values of this space consists of a series of medieval fortresses located along the axis of the Vinalopó River, which has acted since prehistoric times as a natural route from within the provincial mainland to the coast. It is precisely the argument of this historical, territorial and landscape content that has been used repeatedly in recent years to develop initiatives aimed at the creation of a tourist product, currently inexistent, based on the route of the castles of Vinalopó. This communication aims to analyse the degree of tourism potential of the fortresses located in the towns of Biar, Banyeres de Mariola, Sax, Villena, Novelda, Elda, Petrer and Elche, which constitute the core of municipalities where these medieval fortresses are located, finally pointing out some proposals for the creation of a heritage tourism product.