Adaptive learning in agents behaviour: a framework for electricity markets simulation

Electricity markets are complex environments with very particular characteristics. A critical issue regarding these specific characteristics concerns the constant changes they are subject to. This is a result of the electricity markets’ restructuring, which was performed so that the competitiveness could be increased, but it also had exponential implications in the increase of the complexity and unpredictability in those markets scope. The constant growth in markets unpredictability resulted in an amplified need for market intervenient entities in foreseeing market behaviour. The need for understanding the market mechanisms and how the involved players’ interaction affects the outcomes of the markets, contributed to the growth of usage of simulation tools. Multi-agent based software is particularly well fitted to analyze dynamic and adaptive systems with complex interactions among its constituents, such as electricity markets. This dissertation presents ALBidS – Adaptive Learning strategic Bidding System, a multiagent system created to provide decision support to market negotiating players. This system is integrated with the MASCEM electricity market simulator, so that its advantage in supporting a market player can be tested using cases based on real markets’ data. ALBidS considers several different methodologies based on very distinct approaches, to provide alternative suggestions of which are the best actions for the supported player to perform. The approach chosen as the players’ actual action is selected by the employment of reinforcement learning algorithms, which for each different situation, simulation circumstances and context, decides which proposed action is the one with higher possibility of achieving the most success. Some of the considered approaches are supported by a mechanism that creates profiles of competitor players. These profiles are built accordingly to their observed past actions and reactions when faced with specific situations, such as success and failure. The system’s context awareness and simulation circumstances analysis, both in terms of results performance and execution time adaptation, are complementary mechanisms, which endow ALBidS with further adaptation and learning capabilities.

Analysis and regeneration of hypermedia contents through Java and XML tools

This paper presents a tool for the analysis and regeneration of Web contents, implemented through XML and Java. At the moment, the Web content delivery from server to clients is carried out without taking into account clients' characteristics. Heterogeneous and diverse characteristics, such as user's preferences, different capacities of the client's devices, different types of access, state of the network and current load on the server, directly affect the behavior of Web services. On the other hand, the growing use of multimedia objects in the design of Web contents is made without taking into account this diversity and heterogeneity. It affects, even more, the appropriate content delivery. Thus, the objective of the presented tool is the treatment of Web pages taking into account the mentioned heterogeneity and adapting contents in order to improve the performance on the Web

Safe construction through design: perspectives from the site team

How does the work of designers impact on the safety of operatives at the construction site? Safety research and policy emphasize the importance of designing for safe construction, yet the interface between design and construction is poorly understood: accidents have multiple causes making it hard to establish causal links between design choices and safety outcomes. An in-depth case study of a major station project examines how professionals on the construction site perceive and manage the safety challenges of a building design. Analyses reveal understandings that, on the project studied, design has an impact on safety because of: (1) the timing of design work, where the volume of late design changes increased the difficulty of planning safe procedures, e.g. for working at height, lifting heavy items, refurbishing and demolishing old buildings; and (2) inputs from design stakeholders with insufficient practical knowledge of construction and operation required unplanned work-arounds, e.g. to coordinate different sub-systems, provide maintenance access, and manage loads during construction. These findings suggest that safety suffers where projects are under-designed, and that alongside regulation, there is a need for robust management attention to the contractual structures, incentives, processes and tools that enable clients and designers to understand material practices of construction and operation.

Utilizando a televisão digital como um meio de comunicação para ambientes interativos reais

This Dissertation aims to provide a communication mechanism between Digital TV viewers and interaction devices, such as robots, for example, placed on the environment from which a TV program is being live broadcasted. Such communication mechanism has the objective to allow viewers controll the Interaction Devices through their TV devices, using the broadcast channel present in Interactive Digital TV systems, and receive data from the devices by the broadcast channel. This system was projected as a middlewaer system where the Interaction Devices in the TV program set are interconnected, creating a Interactive Device Network. With this approach, the system is capable of manage the devices on the network, controlling the flow of coming and leaving elements, in a transparent way for the viewers. The system yet allows the Interaction Devices communicate each other, with a integrated communication channel with no worries about the physical communication layer

Prevention of Intradialytic Hypotension in Patients with Acute Kidney Injury Submitted to Sustained Low-Efficiency Dialysis

Objectives: This study evaluated the effects of a protocol aiming to reduce hypotension in acute kidney injury (AKI) patients submitted to sustained low-efficiency dialysis (SLED). Methods: Patients were randomly assigned to two SLED prescriptions-control group, dialysate temperature was 37.0 degrees C with a fixed sodium concentration [138 mEq/L] and ultrafiltration (UF) rate; and profiling group, dialysate temperature was 35.5 degrees C with a variable sodium concentration [150-138 mEq/L] and UF rate. Results: Sixty-two SLED sessions were evaluated (34 in profiling and 28 in control). Patients (n = 31) were similar in terms of gender, age, and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score. Dialysis time, dialysis dose, and post-dialysis serum sodium were similar in both groups. The profiling group had significantly less hypotension episodes (23% vs. 57% in control, p = 0.009) and achieved higher UF volume (2.23 +/- 1.25 L vs. 1.59 +/- 1.03 L in control, p = 0.04) when compared with control group. Conclusions: SLED protocol with modulation of dialysate temperature, sodium, and UF profiling showed similar efficacy but less intradialytic hypotension when compared with a standard SLED prescription.

On Voters' Attitudes Towards Unemployment Insurance Subsidies across Regions: A Canadian Simulation

The Canadian unemployment insurance program is designed to reflect the varying risk of joblessness across regions. Regions that are considered low-risk areas subsidize higher risk ones. A region's risk is typically proxied by its relative unemployment rate. We use a dynamic, heterogeneous-agent model calibrated to Canada to analyze voters preferences between a uniformly generous unemployment insurance and the current system with asymmetric generosity. We find that Canada's unusual unemployment insurance system is surprisingly close to what voters would choose in spite of the possibilities of moral hazard and self-insurance through asset build-up.

A interoperabilidade nos sistemas de televisão digital interativa.

A televisão nos dias atuais tem sofrido inúmeras inovações tecnológicas nos campos das transmissões multimídia, qualidade audio-visual e diversidade de funcionalidades. Entretanto, esta essencialmente mantêm sua característica de fornecer informações de forma quase que instantânea à população. O ambiente atual da televisão digital é caracterizado pela coexistência de inúmeros dispositivos capazes de oferecerem uma experiência televisa, associando-se computadores pessoais, smartphones, tablets e outros eletrônicos de consumo. Ainda, pode se incluir a este cenário a disponibilidade de inúmeras redes de transporte de dados tais como a radiodifusão, satélite, cabo e redes em banda larga. Este cenário diversificado, em termos de dispositivos e redes, é denominado de cenário de televisão digital híbrida, a qual destaca-se a interação do expectador com os diversos dispositivos. Estes cenários, por sua vez, motivam o desenvolvimento de tecnologias que permitem o aperfeiçoamento da pervasividade e dos meios pelos os quais os aplicativos possam ser suportados em diferentes plataformas. Este trabalho propõe ambientes interoperáveis envolvendo a televisão digital interativa e outros eletrônicos de consumo, aos quais foram realizados estudos e experimentos para se observar diferentes técnicas de sincronização e comunicação entre plataformas de interatividade para a televisão digital híbrida. Os resultados apontam para a possibilidade de cenários interoperáveis envolvendo o uso de marcadores e também recursos de redes e serviços TCP/IP, levando em consideração a eficiência e eficácia nos diferentes métodos. Conclui-se que os resultados odem motivar o desenvolvimento de cenários diferenciados envolvendo a televisão digital interativa e dispositivos de segunda tela, o que incrementa a interatividade e as formas de entretenimento.

Adaptive fault-tolerant teleoperation

While the robots gradually become a part of our daily lives, they already play vital roles in many critical operations. Some of these critical tasks include surgeries, battlefield operations, and tasks that take place in hazardous environments or distant locations such as space missions. ^ In most of these tasks, remotely controlled robots are used instead of autonomous robots. This special area of robotics is called teleoperation. Teleoperation systems must be reliable when used in critical tasks; hence, all of the subsystems must be dependable even under a subsystem or communication line failure. ^ These systems are categorized as unilateral or bilateral teleoperation. A special type of bilateral teleoperation is described as force-reflecting teleoperation, which is further investigated as limited- and unlimited-workspace teleoperation. ^ Teleoperation systems configured in this study are tested both in numerical simulations and experiments. A new method, Virtual Rapid Robot Prototyping, is introduced to create system models rapidly and accurately. This method is then extended to configure experimental setups with actual master systems working with system models of the slave robots accompanied with virtual reality screens as well as the actual slaves. Fault-tolerant design and modeling of the master and slave systems are also addressed at different levels to prevent subsystem failure. ^ Teleoperation controllers are designed to compensate for instabilities due to communication time delays. Modifications to the existing controllers are proposed to configure a controller that is reliable in communication line failures. Position/force controllers are also introduced for master and/or slave robots. Later, controller architecture changes are discussed in order to make these controllers dependable even in systems experiencing communication problems. ^ The customary and proposed controllers for teleoperation systems are tested in numerical simulations on single- and multi-DOF teleoperation systems. Experimental studies are then conducted on seven different systems that included limited- and unlimited-workspace teleoperation to verify and improve simulation studies. ^ Experiments of the proposed controllers were successful relative to the customary controllers. Overall, by employing the fault-tolerance features and the proposed controllers, a more reliable teleoperation system is possible to design and configure which allows these systems to be used in a wider range of critical missions. ^

Exploring the integration of data mining and data visualization

Due to the rapid advances in computing and sensing technologies, enormous amounts of data are being generated everyday in various applications. The integration of data mining and data visualization has been widely used to analyze these massive and complex data sets to discover hidden patterns. For both data mining and visualization to be effective, it is important to include the visualization techniques in the mining process and to generate the discovered patterns for a more comprehensive visual view. In this dissertation, four related problems: dimensionality reduction for visualizing high dimensional datasets, visualization-based clustering evaluation, interactive document mining, and multiple clusterings exploration are studied to explore the integration of data mining and data visualization. In particular, we 1) propose an efficient feature selection method (reliefF + mRMR) for preprocessing high dimensional datasets; 2) present DClusterE to integrate cluster validation with user interaction and provide rich visualization tools for users to examine document clustering results from multiple perspectives; 3) design two interactive document summarization systems to involve users efforts and generate customized summaries from 2D sentence layouts; and 4) propose a new framework which organizes the different input clusterings into a hierarchical tree structure and allows for interactive exploration of multiple clustering solutions.

Adaptive Fault-Tolerant Teleoperation

While the robots gradually become a part of our daily lives, they already play vital roles in many critical operations. Some of these critical tasks include surgeries, battlefield operations, and tasks that take place in hazardous environments or distant locations such as space missions. In most of these tasks, remotely controlled robots are used instead of autonomous robots. This special area of robotics is called teleoperation. Teleoperation systems must be reliable when used in critical tasks; hence, all of the subsystems must be dependable even under a subsystem or communication line failure. These systems are categorized as unilateral or bilateral teleoperation. A special type of bilateral teleoperation is described as force-reflecting teleoperation, which is further investigated as limited- and unlimited-workspace teleoperation. Teleoperation systems configured in this study are tested both in numerical simulations and experiments. A new method, Virtual Rapid Robot Prototyping, is introduced to create system models rapidly and accurately. This method is then extended to configure experimental setups with actual master systems working with system models of the slave robots accompanied with virtual reality screens as well as the actual slaves. Fault-tolerant design and modeling of the master and slave systems are also addressed at different levels to prevent subsystem failure. Teleoperation controllers are designed to compensate for instabilities due to communication time delays. Modifications to the existing controllers are proposed to configure a controller that is reliable in communication line failures. Position/force controllers are also introduced for master and/or slave robots. Later, controller architecture changes are discussed in order to make these controllers dependable even in systems experiencing communication problems. The customary and proposed controllers for teleoperation systems are tested in numerical simulations on single- and multi-DOF teleoperation systems. Experimental studies are then conducted on seven different systems that included limited- and unlimited-workspace teleoperation to verify and improve simulation studies. Experiments of the proposed controllers were successful relative to the customary controllers. Overall, by employing the fault-tolerance features and the proposed controllers, a more reliable teleoperation system is possible to design and configure which allows these systems to be used in a wider range of critical missions.

Terminology Cross-Domain Final Report

The InterPARES 2 Terminology Cross-Domain has created three terminological instruments in service to the project, and by extension, Archival Science. Over the course of the five-year project this Cross-Domain has collected words, definition, and phrases from extant documents, research tools, models, and direct researcher submission and discussion. From these raw materials, the Cross-Domain has identified a systematic and pragmatic way establishing a coherent view on the concepts involved in dynamic, experiential, and interactive records and systems in the arts, sciences, and e-government.The three terminological instruments are the Glossary, Dictionary, and Ontologies. The first of these is an authoritative list of terms and definitions that are core to our understanding of the evolving records creation, keeping, and preservation environments. The Dictionary is a tool used to facilitate interdisciplinary communication. It contains multiple definitions for terms, from multiple disciplines. By using this tool, researchers can see how Archival Science deploys terminology compared to Computer Science, Library and Information Science, or Arts, etc. The third terminological instrument, the Ontologies, identify explicit relationships between concepts of records. This is useful for communicating the nuances of Diplomatics in the dynamic, experiential, and interactive environment.All three of these instruments were drawn from a Register of terms gathered over the course of the project. This Register served as a holding place for terms, definitions, and phrases, and allowed researchers to discuss, comment on, and modify submissions. The Register and the terminological instruments were housed in the Terminology Database. The Database provides searching, display, and file downloads – making it easy to navigate through the terminological instruments.Terminology used in InterPARES 1 and the UBC Project was carried forward to this Database. In this sense, we are building on our past knowledge, and making it relevant to the contemporary environment.

Failure analysis of engineering systems with preventive maintenance and failure interactions

Optimal operation and maintenance of engineering systems heavily rely on the accurate prediction of their failures. Most engineering systems, especially mechanical systems, are susceptible to failure interactions. These failure interactions can be estimated for repairable engineering systems when determining optimal maintenance strategies for these systems. An extended Split System Approach is developed in this paper. The technique is based on the Split System Approach and a model for interactive failures. The approach was applied to simulated data. The results indicate that failure interactions will increase the hazard of newly repaired components. The intervals of preventive maintenance actions of a system with failure interactions, will become shorter compared with scenarios where failure interactions do not exist.

Estimating interactive coefficients for analysing interactive failures

Engineering assets are often complex systems. In a complex system, components often have failure interactions which lead to interactive failures. A system with interactive failures may lead to an increased failure probability. Hence, one may have to take the interactive failures into account when designing and maintaining complex engineering systems. To address this issue, Sun et al have developed an analytical model for the interactive failures. In this model, the degree of interaction between two components is represented by interactive coefficients. To use this model for failure analysis, the related interactive coefficients must be estimated. However, methods for estimating the interactive coefficients have not been reported. To fill this gap, this paper presents five methods to estimate the interactive coefficients including probabilistic method; failure data based analysis method; laboratory experimental method; failure interaction mechanism based method; and expert estimation method. Examples are given to demonstrate the applications of the proposed methods. Comparisons among these methods are also presented.

Reliability analysis and economic equipment replacement appraisal for substation and sub-transmission systems with explicit inclusion of non-repairable failures

The modern society has come to expect the electrical energy on demand, while many of the facilities in power systems are aging beyond repair and maintenance. The risk of failure is increasing with the aging equipments and can pose serious consequences for continuity of electricity supply. As the equipments used in high voltage power networks are very expensive, economically it may not be feasible to purchase and store spares in a warehouse for extended periods of time. On the other hand, there is normally a significant time before receiving equipment once it is ordered. This situation has created a considerable interest in the evaluation and application of probability methods for aging plant and provisions of spares in bulk supply networks, and can be of particular importance for substations. Quantitative adequacy assessment of substation and sub-transmission power systems is generally done using a contingency enumeration approach which includes the evaluation of contingencies, classification of the contingencies based on selected failure criteria. The problem is very complex because of the need to include detailed modelling and operation of substation and sub-transmission equipment using network flow evaluation and to consider multiple levels of component failures. In this thesis a new model associated with aging equipment is developed to combine the standard tools of random failures, as well as specific model for aging failures. This technique is applied in this thesis to include and examine the impact of aging equipments on system reliability of bulk supply loads and consumers in distribution network for defined range of planning years. The power system risk indices depend on many factors such as the actual physical network configuration and operation, aging conditions of the equipment, and the relevant constraints. The impact and importance of equipment reliability on power system risk indices in a network with aging facilities contains valuable information for utilities to better understand network performance and the weak links in the system. In this thesis, algorithms are developed to measure the contribution of individual equipment to the power system risk indices, as part of the novel risk analysis tool. A new cost worth approach was developed in this thesis that can make an early decision in planning for replacement activities concerning non-repairable aging components, in order to maintain a system reliability performance which economically is acceptable. The concepts, techniques and procedures developed in this thesis are illustrated numerically using published test systems. It is believed that the methods and approaches presented, substantially improve the accuracy of risk predictions by explicit consideration of the effect of equipment entering a period of increased risk of a non-repairable failure.