Anticipating climate-induced changes to forest cover in Ontario and the implications for future bioenergy development

Climate change is expected to have marked impacts on forest ecosystems. In Ontario forests, this includes changes in tree growth, stand composition and disturbance regimes, with expected impacts on many forest-dependent communities, the bioeconomy, and other environmental considerations. In response to climate change, renewable energy systems, such as forest bioenergy, are emerging as critical tools for carbon emissions reductions and climate change mitigation. However, these systems may also need to adapt to changing forest conditions. Therefore, the aim of this research was to estimate changes in forest growth and forest cover in response to anticipated climatic changes in the year 2100 in Ontario forests, to ultimately explore the sustainability of bioenergy in the future. Using the Haliburton Forest and Wildlife Reserve in Ontario as a case study, this research used a spatial climate analog approach to match modeled Haliburton temperature and precipitation (via Fourth Canadian Regional Climate Model) to regions currently exhibiting similar climate (climate analogs). From there, current forest cover and growth rates of core species in Haliburton were compared to forests plots in analog regions from the US Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA). This comparison used two different emission scenarios, corresponding to a high and a mid-range emission future. This research then explored how these changes in forests may influence bioenergy feasibility in the future. It examined possible volume availability and composition of bioenergy feedstock under future conditions. This research points to a potential decline of softwoods in the Haliburton region with a simultaneous expansion of pre-established hardwoods such as northern red oak and red maple, as well as a potential loss in sugar maple cover. From a bioenergy perspective, hardwood residues may be the most feasible feedstock in the future with minimal change in biomass availability for energy production; under these possible conditions, small scale combined heat and power (CHP) and residential pellet use may be the most viable and ecologically sustainable options. Ultimately, understanding the way in which forests may change is important in informing meaningful policy and management, allowing for improved forest bioenergy systems, now and in the future.

EVALUATION OF POTENTIAL TRANSLOAD FACILITY LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER PENINSULA (UP) OF MICHIGAN

Shippers want to improve their transportation efficiency and rail transportation has the potential to provide an economical alternative to trucking, but it also has potential drawbacks. The pressure to optimize transportation supply chain logistics has resulted in growing interest in multimodal alternatives, such as a combination of truck and rail transportation, but the comparison of multimodal and modal alternatives can be complicated. Shippers in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula (UP) face similar challenges. Adding to the challenge is the distance from major markets and the absence of available facilities for transloading activities. This study reviewed three potential locations for a transload facility (Nestoria, Ishpeming, and Amasa) where truck shipments could be transferred to rail and vice versa. These locations were evaluated on the basis of transportation costs for shippers when compared to the use of single mode transportation by truck to Wisconsin, Chicago, Minneapolis, and Sault Ste. Marie. In addition to shipping costs, the study also evaluated the potential impact of future carbon emission penalties on the shipping cost and the effects of changing fuel prices on shipping cost. The study used data obtained from TRANSEARCH database (2009) and found that although there were slight differences between percent savings for the three locations, any of them could provide potential benefits for movements to Chicago and Minneapolis, as long as final destination could be accessed by rail for delivery. Short haul movements of less than 200 miles (Wisconsin and Sault Ste. Marie) were not cost effective for multimodal transport. The study also found that for every dollar increase in fuel price, cost savings from multimodal option increased by three to five percent, but the inclusion of emission costs would only add one to two percent additional savings. Under a specific case study that addressed shipments by Northern Hardwoods, the most distant locations in Wisconsin would also provide cost savings, partially due to the possibility of using Michigan trucks with higher carrying capacity for the initial movement from the facility to transload location. In addition, Minneapolis movements were found to provide savings for Northern Hardwoods, even without final rail access.

Utilisation d’arbres de faible vigueur provenant de forêts feuillues tempérées comme matière première pour la fabrication de granules de bois

La présente étude avait pour objectif de contribuer à une meilleure compréhension de la granulation des bois feuillus par l’évaluation de la possibilité technique de transformer des bois feuillus de faible vigueur (l’érable à sucre et le bouleau jaune) en granules conventionnels et granules de haute qualité, un type prometteur de transport énergétique. Trois études individuelles ont été réalisées et présentées dans cette thèse. La première étude visait à déterminer s’il y a des changements de teneur en extractibles, cendres, et lignine du bois entre les classes de vigueur des arbres. Les teneurs plus élevées en extractibles et en lignine dans les arbres peu vigoureux ont suggéré que ces derniers sont plus appropriés par rapport aux arbres vigoureux pour la conversion en biocombustibles solides. La deuxième étude visait à optimiser des procédés de granulation des bois feuillus. L’étude a porté sur l’influence des paramètres du procédé (la température et la force de compression) et des caractéristiques de la matière première (la taille des particules et la teneur en humidité) sur les propriétés physiques et mécaniques des granules de bois. Le procédé de granulation doit être effectué à une température d’environ 100 °C pour minimiser la force de friction dans le granulateur et à une teneur en humidité d’environ 11,2% pour maximiser la masse volumique et la résistance mécanique des granules produites. Cette étude a également confirmé que les arbres de faible qualité sont plus appropriés pour la fabrication de granules de bois que les arbres vigoureux. La troisième étude visait l’élaboration de granules de haute qualité. L’eau chaude à température élevée a été utilisée pour modifier les propriétés de la matière première avant granulation. Les caractéristiques de granulation du matériau traité ont été significativement améliorées. Les granules produites ont montré des propriétés améliorées incluant une plus faible teneur en cendres, une plus haute densité énergétique, une meilleure résistance à l’eau, et une meilleure résistance mécanique. Les résultats obtenus de toutes ces études ont démontré la nécessité de bien connaître les fondements de la granulation des bois feuillus et les solutions pratiques pour l’utilisation d’arbres feuillus de faible qualité, le premier peut être applicable pour le développement de procédés de granulation et le dernier peut contribuer à long terme à la restauration des forêts feuillues dégradées en termes de santé des forêts et de leur valeur.