Development and Progress as Historical Phenomena in Tanzania: “Maendeleo? We Had That in the Past”

Academic discussions of development continue to grow, yet critical engagements with communities affected by development interventions remain limited. Drawing from life history interviews conducted in southern Tanzania, this article details the varied experiences of development interventions among older people and how these affect broader understandings of progress. Many juxtapose their negative views of ujamaa villagization with more positive recollections of previous interventions (especially the Groundnut Scheme), which are infused with what is described here as “development nostalgia.” Perceptions of the past clearly inform the social, political, and economic aspirations forwarded today, with the richness of the constructed narratives adding further nuance to existing depictions of Tanzanian historiography.

Trends in food availability in Switzerland, 1961-2007.

Trends in food availability in Switzerland were assessed using the Food and Agricultural Organization food balance sheets for the period 1961-2007. A relatively stable trend in the daily caloric supply was found: 3545 kcal/day in 1961 and 3465 kcal/day in 2007. Calories associated with carbohydrates decreased (slope±s.e.: -1.1±0.2 kcal/day/year), namely regarding cereals (-2.9±0.6 kcal/day/year) and fruit (-1.5±0.1 kcal/day/year), while the availability of sugars increased (1.2±0.5 kcal/day/year). In 1961, protein, fat, carbohydrates and alcohol represented 10.6, 33.5, 50.0 and 5.9% of total caloric supply, respectively; in 2007, the values were 10.8, 40.3, 43.7 and 5.2%. In 1961, palm, groundnut and sunflowerseed oil represented 3.4, 30.7 and 5.3% of total vegetable oils, respectively; in 2007, the values were 10.4, 3.7 and 31.6%. We conclude that between 1961 and 2007 total caloric availability remained relatively stable in Switzerland; the health effects of the increased and differing fat availability should be evaluated.

Exposition aux pesticides et risque de diabète de type 2 : une étude au nord du Bénin (Afrique de l'Ouest)

Introduction : La présente étude explore pour la première fois en Afrique, l'association entre l'exposition aux pesticides organochlorés (POC) et le risque de diabète de type 2. L’étude se déroule dans la région du Borgou, au nord du Bénin, où l’utilisation intense de pesticides pour la culture du coton coïncide avec une prévalence élevée du diabète par rapport aux autres régions du pays. Objectifs: 1) Décrire le niveau d’exposition de la population des diabétiques et non diabétiques du Borgou par le taux sérique de certains pesticides organochlorés ; 2) Explorer la relation entre le risque de diabète de type 2 et les concentrations sériques des POC; 3) Examiner l’association entre l’obésité globale, le pourcentage de masse grasse et l’obésité abdominale avec les concentrations sériques des POC; 4) Explorer la contribution de certaines sources d’exposition alimentaire et non-alimentaire aux concentrations sériques des POC. Méthodes : Il s'agit d'une étude cas-témoin qui concerne 258 adultes de 18 à 65 ans identifiés par deux valeurs glycémiques capillaire et veineuse au seuil de 7 mmol/l pour les diabétiques et 5,6mmol/l pour les témoins non diabétiques. Les 129 témoins ont été appariés aux 129 cas selon les critères suivants : l’ethnie, l’âge ± 5ans, le sexe et la localité de résidence. Les informations personnelles et celles portant sur les modes d’exposition ont été recueillies par questionnaire. Les concentrations sériques des POC ont été obtenues par chromatographie gazeuse couplée d’une spectrométrie de masse. L’obésité globale est déterminée par l’IMC ≥ 30 kg/m2. L’obésité abdominale est obtenue par le tour de taille selon les critères consensuels d’Alberti et al. pour la définition du syndrome métabolique. Le pourcentage de masse corporelle a été mesuré par bio-impédance électrique et été considéré comme élevé au seuil de 33% chez les femmes et 25% chez les hommes. Résultats: En comparant les 3ème et premier terciles des concentrations de p,p’-DDE et p,p’-DDT, les sujets du 3e tercile étaient deux à trois fois plus susceptibles de présenter du diabète que ceux du 1er tercile. La probabilité d’obésité abdominale ou de l’obésité générale (en contrôlant pour le statut diabétique) était accrue de trois à cinq fois dans le dernier tercile pour trois des quatre POC qui étaient détectables soit p,p’-DDT, β-HCH et trans-Nonachlore. Les facteurs socioéconomiques associés aux POC sériques sont le niveau d’éducation élevé, un meilleur revenu et la résidence en milieu urbain. Les sources d’exposition non alimentaire significativement associées aux concentrations sériques de POC étaient l’exposition professionnelle mixte (primaire et secondaire) aux pesticides et la consommation de tabac local. L’achat en opposition à l’autoproduction de plusieurs groupes de denrées alimentaire était associé à de plus fortes teneurs de POC. La fréquence de consommation hebdomadaire du poisson, des légumes, du fromage, de l’igname séchée ainsi que du mil, de l’huile de palme et de certaines légumineuses comme le soya, le néré, le niébé et le voandzou était significativement associées aux POC sériques. Conclusion : L’étude a mis en évidence la relation entre le niveau sérique de pesticides organochlorés d’une part, du diabète ou de l’obésité d’autre part. Les concentrations de POC observées au Borgou sont assez élevées et méritent d’être suivies et comparées à celles d’autres régions du pays. Les facteurs contribuant à ces teneurs élevées sont le niveau d’éducation élevé, un meilleur revenu, la résidence en milieu urbain, l’achat et la fréquence de consommation de plusieurs aliments. La contribution du mélange des polluants auxquels les habitants de cette région sont exposés à la prévalence croissante du diabète mérite d’être examinée, notamment les pesticides utilisés actuellement dans la région pour les productions de rente et autres polluants persistants. Ces résultats contribuent à accroître les connaissances sur les facteurs de risque émergents pour le diabète que sont des polluants environnementaux comme les pesticides. Les implications pour la santé publique sont importantes tant pour la prévention des maladies chroniques que pour la sensibilisation des autorités politiques du pays pour une politique agricole et sanitaire adéquate visant la réduction de l’exposition aux pesticides.

Root-induced increases in soil pH and nutrient availability to field-grown cereals and legumes on acid sandy soils of Sudano-Sahelian West Africa

A field experiment with millet (Pennisetum glaucum L.), sorghum [Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench], cowpea (Vigna unguiculata L.) and groundnut (Arachnis hypogeae L.) was conducted on severely P-deficient acid sandy soils of Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso to measure changes in pH and nutrient availability as affected by distance from the root surface and by mineral fertiliser application. Treatments included three rates of phosphorus (P) and four levels of nitrogen (N) application. Bulk, rhizosphere and rhizoplane soils were sampled at 35, 45 and 75 DAS in 1997 and at 55 and 65 DAS in 1998. Regardless of the cropping system and level of mineral fertiliser applied, soil pH consistently increased between 0.7 and two units from the bulk soil to the rhizoplane of millet. Similar pH gradients were observed in cowpea, but pH changes were much smaller in sorghum with a difference of only 0.3 units. Shifts in pH led to large increases in nutrient availability close to the roots. Compared with the bulk soil, available P in the rhizoplane was between 190 and 270% higher for P-Bray and between 360 and 600% higher for P-water. Exchangeable calcium (Ca) and magnesium (Mg) levels were also higher in the millet rhizoplane than in the bulk soil, whereas exchangeable aluminium (Al) levels decreased with increasing pH close to the root surface. The results suggest an important role of root-induced pH increases for crops to cope with acidity-induced nutrient deficiency and Al stress of soils in the Sudano-Sahelian zone of West Africa.

Effects of fertility management strategies on phosphorus bioavailability in four West African soils

Low phosphorus (P) in acid sandy soils of the West African Sudano-Sahelian zone is a major limitation to crop growth. To compare treatment effects on total dry matter (TDM) of crops and plant available P (P-Bray and isotopically exchangeable P), field experiments were carried out for 2 years at four sites where annual rainfall ranged from 560 to 850 mm and topsoil pH varied between 4.2 and 5.6. Main treatments were: (i) crop residue (CR) mulch at 500 and 2000 kg ha^-1, (ii) eight different rates and sources of P and (iii) cereal/legume rotations including millet (Pennisetum glaucum L.), sorhum [Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench], cowpea (Vigna unguiculata Walp.) and groundnut (Arachis hypogaea L.). For the two Sahelian sites with large CR-induced differences in TDM, mulching did not modify significantly the soils' buffering capacity for phosphate ions but led to large increases in the intensity factor (C_p) and quantity of directly available soil P (E_1min). In the wetter Sudanian zone lacking effects of CR mulching on TDM mirrored a decline of E_1min with CR. Broadcast application of soluble single superphosphate (SSP) at 13 kg P ha^-1 led to large increases in C_p and quantity of E_1min at all sites which translated in respective TDM increases. The high agronomic efficiency of SSP placement (4 kg P ha^-1) across sites could be explained by consistent increases in the quantity factor which confirms the power of the isotopic exchange method in explaining management effects on crop growth across the region.

Efficient phosphorus application strategies for increased crop production in sub-Saharan West Africa

Comparable data are lacking from the range of environments found in sub-Saharan West Africa to draw more general conclusions about the relative merits of locally available rockphosphate (RockP) in alleviating phosphorus (P) constraints to crop growth. To fill this gap, a multi-factorial field experiment was conducted over 4 years at eight locations in Niger, Burkina Faso and Togo. These ranged in annual rainfall from 510 to 1300 mm. Crops grown were pearl millet (Pennisetum glaucum L.), sorghum (Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench) and maize (Zea mays L.) either continuously or in rotation with cowpea (Vigna unguiculata Walp.) and groundnut (Arachis hypogaea L.). Crops were subjected to six P fertiliser treatments comprising RockP and soluble P at different rates and combined with 0 and 60 kg N ha^-1. For legumes, time trend analyses showed P-induced total dry matter (TDM) increases between 28 and 72% only with groundnut. Similarly, rotation-induced raises in cereal TDM compared to cereal monoculture were only observed with groundnut. For cereals, at the same rate of application, RockP was comparable to single superphosphate (SSP) only at two millet sites with topsoil pH-KCl <4.2 and annual average rainfall >600 mm. Across the eight sites NPK placement at 0.4 g P per hill raised average cereal yields between 26 and 220%. This was confirmed in 119 on-farm trials revealing P placement as a promising strategy to overcome P deficiency as the regionally most growth limiting nutrient constraint to cereals.

Causes of legume-rotation effects in increasing cereal yields across the Sudanian, Sahelian and Guinean zone of West Africa

On-farm experiments and pot trials were conducted on eight West African soils to explore the mechanisms governing the often reported legume rotation-induced cereal growth increases in this region. Crops comprised pearl millet (Pennisetum glaucum L.), sorghum (Sorghum bicolor Moench), maize (Zea mays L.), cowpea (Vigna unguiculata Walp.) and groundnut (Arachis hypogaea L.). In groundnut trials the observed 26 to 85% increases in total dry matter (TDM) of rotation cereals (RC) compared with continuous cereals (CC) in the 4th year appeared to be triggered by site- and crop-specific early season differences in nematode infestation (up to 6-fold lower in RC than in CC), enhanced Nmin and a 7% increase in mycorrhizal (AM) infection. In cowpea trials yield effects on millet and differences in nematode numbers, Nmin and AM were much smaller. Rhizosphere studies indicated effects on pH and acid phosphatase activity as secondary causes for the observed growth differences between RC and CC. In the study region legume-rotation effects on cereals seemed to depend on the capability of the legume to suppress nematodes and to enhance early N and P availability for the subsequent cereal.

Cereal/legume rotation effects on rhizosphere bacterial community structure in West African soils

The increased use of cereal/legume crop rotation has been advocated as a strategy to increase cereal yields of subsistence farmers in West Africa, and is believed to promote changes in the rhizosphere that enhance early plant growth. In this study we investigated the microbial diversity of the rhizoplane from seedlings grown in two soils previously planted to cereal or legume from experimental plots in Gaya, Niger, and Kaboli, Togo. Soils from these legume rotation and continuous cereal plots were placed into containers and sown in a growth chamber with maize (Zea mays L.), millet (Pennisetum glaucum L.), sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L. Moench.), cowpea (Vigna unguiculata L.) or groundnut (Arachis hypogaea L.). At 7 and 14 days after sowing, 16S rDNA profiles of the eubacterial and ammoniaoxidizing communities from the rhizoplane and bulk soil were generated using denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE). Community profiles were subjected to peak fitting analyses to quantify the DNA band position and intensities, after which these data were compared using correspondence and principal components analysis. The data showed that cropping system had a highly significant effect on community structure (p <0.005), irrespective of plant species or sampling time. Continuous cereal-soil grown plants had highly similar rhizoplane communities across crop species and sites, whereas communities from the rotation soil showed greater variability and clustered with respect to plant species. Analyses of the ammonia-oxidizing communities provided no evidence of any effects of plant species or management history on ammonia oxidizers in soil from Kaboli, but there were large shifts with respect to this group of bacteria in soils from Gaya. The results of these analyses show that crop rotation can cause significant shifts in rhizosphere bacterial communities.

Effects of dietary lipid source on growth, digestibility and tissue fatty acid composition of Heterobranchus longifilis fingerlings

One of the major problems facing aquaculture is the inadequate supply of fish oil mostly used for fish feed manufacturing. The continued growth in aquaculture production cannot depend on this finite feed resources, therefore, it is imperative that cheap and readily available substitutes that do not compromise fish growth and fillet quality be found. To achieve this, a 12-week feeding trial with Heterobranchus longifilis fed diets differing in lipid source was conducted. Diets were supplemented with 6% lipid as fish oil, soybean oil, palm oil, coconut oil, groundnut oil and melon seed oil. Triplicate groups of 20 H. longifilis were fed the experimental diets two times a day to apparent satiation, over 84 days. Growth, digestibility, and muscle fatty acid profile were measured to assess diet effects. At the end of the study, survival, feed intake and hepatosomatic index were similar for fish fed experimental diets. However, weight gain, SGR and FCR of fish fed soybean oil-based diet was significantly reduced. Apparent nutrient digestibility coefficients were significantly lower in fish fed soybean, coconut and groundnut oil-based diets. Fillet and hepatic fatty acid compositions differed and reflected the fatty acid compositions of the diets. Docosahexaenoic acid (22:6n-3), 20:5n-3 and 20:4n-6 were conserved in vegetable oils-based diets fed fish possibly due to synthesis of HUFA from 18:3n-3 and 18:4n-6. Palm oil diet was the least expensive, and had the best economic conversion ratio. The use of vegetable oils in the diets had positive effect on growth and fillet composition of H. longifilis.

Causes of legume rotation induced yield increases in cereals grown on West African soils

This study was conducted to investigate soil biological and chemical factors that give rise to cereal yield enhancing effects of legume rotations on sandy, nutrient poor West African soils. The aim was not only to gain more information on the role of legume residues and microorganisms in the soil nutrient cycle. But the study aimed at evaluating if differences in substrate qualities (e.g. root residues) cause changes in the microbial community structure due to specific and highly complex microbe-root-soil interactions. Site and system specific reactions of microorganisms towards rewetting, simulating the onset of rainy season, were observed. Higher respiration rates, higher amounts of microbial biomass carbon (Cmic) and nitrogen (Nmic) as well as higher ergosterol, muramic acid, glucosamine and adenylate concentrations were measured in CL soils of Koukombo and in both soils from Fada. The immediate increase in ATP concentrations after rewetting was likely caused by rehydration of microbial cells where N was not immobilized and, thus, available for plants facilitating their rapid development. Legume root residues led only to slightly better plant performances compared to the control, while the application of cereal roots reduced seedling growth. In contrast to sorghum seedlings, the microbial community did not react to the mineral treatment. Thus the energy supply in form of organic amendments increased microbial indices compared to mineral P application and the control. The results of basal respiration rates, Cmic and Corg levels indicate that the microbial community in the soil from Koukombo is less efficient in substrate use compared to microorganisms in the soil from Fada. However, the continuous carbon input by legume root residues might have contributed to these differences in soil fertility. With the 33P isotopic exchange method a low buffering capacity was detected in both soils irrespective of treatments. Calculated E values (E1min to E1min-1d and E1d-3m) indicated a slowly release of P due to root turnover while applied mineral P is taken up by plants or fixed to the soil. Due to the fact that sorghum growth reacted mainly to the application of mineral P and the microorganisms solely to the organic inputs, the combination of both amendments seems to be the best approach to a sustainable increase of crop production on many nutrient-poor, sandy West African soils. In a pot experiment, were CC and CL soils from Fada and Koukombo were adjusted to the same level of P and N concentrations, crop growth was significantly higher on CL soils, compared to the respective treatments on CC soils. Mycorrhizal infection of roots was increased and the number of nematodes, predominantly free living nematodes, was almost halfed on rotation soils. In conclusion, increased nutrient availability (especially P and N) through the introduction of legumes is not the only reason for the observed yield increasing effects. Soil biological factors seem to also play an important role. In a root chamber experiment the pH gradient along the root-soil-interface was measured at three times using an antimony microelectrode. For Fada soils, pH values were higher on CL than CC soils while the opposite was true for the Koukombo soils. Site-specific differences between Fada and Koukombo soils in N content and microbial community structures might have created varying crop performances leading to the contrasting pH findings. However, the mechanisms involved in this highly complex microbe-root-soil interaction remain unclear.

Crop yield reduction in the tropics under climate change: Processes and uncertainties

Many modelling studies examine the impacts of climate change on crop yield, but few explore either the underlying bio-physical processes, or the uncertainty inherent in the parameterisation of crop growth and development. We used a perturbed-parameter crop modelling method together with a regional climate model (PRECIS) driven by the 2071-2100 SRES A2 emissions scenario in order to examine processes and uncertainties in yield simulation. Crop simulations used the groundnut (i.e. peanut; Arachis hypogaea L.) version of the General Large-Area Model for annual crops (GLAM). Two sets of GLAM simulations were carried out: control simulations and fixed-duration simulations, where the impact of mean temperature on crop development rate was removed. Model results were compared to sensitivity tests using two other crop models of differing levels of complexity: CROPGRO, and the groundnut model of Hammer et al. [Hammer, G.L., Sinclair, T.R., Boote, K.J., Wright, G.C., Meinke, H., and Bell, M.J., 1995, A peanut simulation model: I. Model development and testing. Agron. J. 87, 1085-1093]. GLAM simulations were particularly sensitive to two processes. First, elevated vapour pressure deficit (VPD) consistently reduced yield. The same result was seen in some simulations using both other crop models. Second, GLAM crop duration was longer, and yield greater, when the optimal temperature for the rate of development was exceeded. Yield increases were also seen in one other crop model. Overall, the models differed in their response to super-optimal temperatures, and that difference increased with mean temperature; percentage changes in yield between current and future climates were as diverse as -50% and over +30% for the same input data. The first process has been observed in many crop experiments, whilst the second has not. Thus, we conclude that there is a need for: (i) more process-based modelling studies of the impact of VPD on assimilation, and (ii) more experimental studies at super-optimal temperatures. Using the GLAM results, central values and uncertainty ranges were projected for mean 2071-2100 crop yields in India. In the fixed-duration simulations, ensemble mean yields mostly rose by 10-30%. The full ensemble range was greater than this mean change (20-60% over most of India). In the control simulations, yield stimulation by elevated CO2 was more than offset by other processes-principally accelerated crop development rates at elevated, but sub-optimal, mean temperatures. Hence, the quantification of uncertainty can facilitate relatively robust indications of the likely sign of crop yield changes in future climates. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Toward a combined seasonal weather and crop productivity forecasting system: Determination of the working spatial scale

A methodology is presented for the development of a combined seasonal weather and crop productivity forecasting system. The first stage of the methodology is the determination of the spatial scale(s) on which the system could operate; this determination has been made for the case of groundnut production in India. Rainfall is a dominant climatic determinant of groundnut yield in India. The relationship between yield and rainfall has been explored using data from 1966 to 1995. On the all-India scale, seasonal rainfall explains 52% of the variance in yield. On the subdivisional scale, correlations vary between variance r(2) = 0.62 (significance level p < 10(-4)) and a negative correlation with r(2) = 0.1 (p = 0.13). The spatial structure of the relationship between rainfall and groundnut yield has been explored using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. A coherent, large-scale pattern emerges for both rainfall and yield. On the subdivisional scale (similar to 300 km), the first principal component (PC) of rainfall is correlated well with the first PC of yield (r(2) = 0.53, p < 10(-4)), demonstrating that the large-scale patterns picked out by the EOFs are related. The physical significance of this result is demonstrated. Use of larger averaging areas for the EOF analysis resulted in lower and (over time) less robust correlations. Because of this loss of detail when using larger spatial scales, the subdivisional scale is suggested as an upper limit on the spatial scale for the proposed forecasting system. Further, district-level EOFs of the yield data demonstrate the validity of upscaling these data to the subdivisional scale. Similar patterns have been produced using data on both of these scales, and the first PCs are very highly correlated (r(2) = 0.96). Hence, a working spatial scale has been identified, typical of that used in seasonal weather forecasting, that can form the basis of crop modeling work for the case of groundnut production in India. Last, the change in correlation between yield and seasonal rainfall during the study period has been examined using seasonal totals and monthly EOFs. A further link between yield and subseasonal variability is demonstrated via analysis of dynamical data.

Probabilistic simulations of crop yield over western India using the DEMETER seasonal hindcast ensembles

Process-based integrated modelling of weather and crop yield over large areas is becoming an important research topic. The production of the DEMETER ensemble hindcasts of weather allows this work to be carried out in a probabilistic framework. In this study, ensembles of crop yield (groundnut, Arachis hypogaea L.) were produced for 10 2.5 degrees x 2.5 degrees grid cells in western India using the DEMETER ensembles and the general large-area model (GLAM) for annual crops. Four key issues are addressed by this study. First, crop model calibration methods for use with weather ensemble data are assessed. Calibration using yield ensembles was more successful than calibration using reanalysis data (the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 40-yr reanalysis, ERA40). Secondly, the potential for probabilistic forecasting of crop failure is examined. The hindcasts show skill in the prediction of crop failure, with more severe failures being more predictable. Thirdly, the use of yield ensemble means to predict interannual variability in crop yield is examined and their skill assessed relative to baseline simulations using ERA40. The accuracy of multi-model yield ensemble means is equal to or greater than the accuracy using ERA40. Fourthly, the impact of two key uncertainties, sowing window and spatial scale, is briefly examined. The impact of uncertainty in the sowing window is greater with ERA40 than with the multi-model yield ensemble mean. Subgrid heterogeneity affects model accuracy: where correlations are low on the grid scale, they may be significantly positive on the subgrid scale. The implications of the results of this study for yield forecasting on seasonal time-scales are as follows. (i) There is the potential for probabilistic forecasting of crop failure (defined by a threshold yield value); forecasting of yield terciles shows less potential. (ii) Any improvement in the skill of climate models has the potential to translate into improved deterministic yield prediction. (iii) Whilst model input uncertainties are important, uncertainty in the sowing window may not require specific modelling. The implications of the results of this study for yield forecasting on multidecadal (climate change) time-scales are as follows. (i) The skill in the ensemble mean suggests that the perturbation, within uncertainty bounds, of crop and climate parameters, could potentially average out some of the errors associated with mean yield prediction. (ii) For a given technology trend, decadal fluctuations in the yield-gap parameter used by GLAM may be relatively small, implying some predictability on those time-scales.

Ensemble yield simulations: crop and climate uncertainties, sensitivity to temperature and genotypic adaptation to climate change

Estimates of the response of crops to climate change rarely quantify the uncertainty inherent in the simulation of both climate and crops. We present a crop simulation ensemble for a location in India, perturbing the response of both crop and climate under both baseline (12 720 simulations) and doubled-CO2 (171720 simulations) climates. Some simulations used parameter values representing genotypic adaptation to mean temperature change. Firstly, observed and simulated yields in the baseline climate were compared. Secondly, the response of yield to changes in mean temperature was examined and compared to that found in the literature. No consistent response to temperature change was found across studies. Thirdly, the relative contribution of uncertainty in crop and climate simulation to the total uncertainty in projected yield changes was examined. In simulations without genotypic adaptation, most of the uncertainty came from the climate model parameters. Comparison with the simulations with genotypic adaptation and with a previous study suggested that the relatively low crop parameter uncertainty derives from the observational constraints on the crop parameters used in this study. Fourthly, the simulations were used, together with an observed dataset and a simple analysis of crop cardinal temperatures and thermal time, to estimate the potential for adaptation using existing cultivars. The results suggest that the germplasm for complete adaptation of groundnut cultivation in western India to a doubled-CO2 environment may not exist. In conjunction with analyses of germplasm and local management

Quantifying uncertainty in the simulation of crop-climate processes

The impacts of climate change on crop productivity are often assessed using simulations from a numerical climate model as an input to a crop simulation model. The precision of these predictions reflects the uncertainty in both models. We examined how uncertainty in a climate (HadAM3) and crop General Large-Area Model (GLAM) for annual crops model affects the mean and standard deviation of crop yield simulations in present and doubled carbon dioxide (CO2) climates by perturbation of parameters in each model. The climate sensitivity parameter (λ, the equilibrium response of global mean surface temperature to doubled CO2) was used to define the control climate. Observed 1966–1989 mean yields of groundnut (Arachis hypogaea L.) in India were simulated well by the crop model using the control climate and climates with values of λ near the control value. The simulations were used to measure the contribution to uncertainty of key crop and climate model parameters. The standard deviation of yield was more affected by perturbation of climate parameters than crop model parameters in both the present-day and doubled CO2 climates. Climate uncertainty was higher in the doubled CO2 climate than in the present-day climate. Crop transpiration efficiency was key to crop model uncertainty in both present-day and doubled CO2 climates. The response of crop development to mean temperature contributed little uncertainty in the present-day simulations but was among the largest contributors under doubled CO2. The ensemble methods used here to quantify physical and biological uncertainty offer a method to improve model estimates of the impacts of climate change.