Brazilian exchange rate complexity: Financial crisis effects

With the financial market globalization, foreign investments became vital for the economies, mainly in emerging countries. In the last decades, Brazilian exchange rates appeared as a good indicator to measure either investors' confidence or risk aversion. Here, some events of global or national financial crisis are analyzed, trying to understand how they influenced the "dollar-real" rate evolution. The theoretical tool to be used is the Lopez-Mancini-Calbet (LMC) complexity measure that, applied to real exchange rate data, has shown good fitness between critical events and measured patterns. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Credit-Default-Swaps and the 2008 Financial Crisis: An Inquiry into the Underlying Legal Origins and the European Union’s Regulatory Reforms

After the 2008 financial crisis, the financial innovation product Credit-Default-Swap (CDS) was widely blamed as the main cause of this crisis. CDS is one type of over-the-counter (OTC) traded derivatives. Before the crisis, the trading of CDS was very popular among the financial institutions. But meanwhile, excessive speculative CDSs transactions in a legal environment of scant regulation accumulated huge risks in the financial system. This dissertation is divided into three parts. In Part I, we discussed the primers of the CDSs and its market development, then we analyzed in detail the roles CDSs had played in this crisis based on economic studies. It is advanced that CDSs not just promoted the eruption of the crisis in 2007 but also exacerbated it in 2008. In part II, we asked ourselves what are the legal origins of this crisis in relation with CDSs, as we believe that financial instruments could only function, positive or negative, under certain legal institutional environment. After an in-depth inquiry, we observed that at least three traditional legal doctrines were eroded or circumvented by OTC derivatives. It is argued that the malfunction of these doctrines, on the one hand, facilitated the proliferation of speculative CDSs transactions; on the other hand, eroded the original risk-control legal mechanism. Therefore, the 2008 crisis could escalate rapidly into a global financial tsunami, which was out of control of the regulators. In Part III, we focused on the European Union’s regulatory reform towards the OTC derivatives market. In specific, EU introduced mandatory central counterparty clearing obligation for qualified OTC derivatives, and requires that all OTC derivatives shall be reported to a trade repository. It is observable that EU’s approach in re-regulating the derivatives market is different with the traditional administrative regulation, but aiming at constructing a new market infrastructure for OTC derivatives.

Multivariate FIAPARCH modelling of financial markets with dynamic correlations in times of crisis

This paper applies the vector AR-DCC-FIAPARCH model to eight national stock market indices' daily returns from 1988 to 2010, taking into account the structural breaks of each time series linked to the Asian and the recent Global financial crisis. We find significant cross effects, as well as long range volatility dependence, asymmetric volatility response to positive and negative shocks, and the power of returns that best fits the volatility pattern. One of the main findings of the model analysis is the higher dynamic correlations of the stock markets after a crisis event, which means increased contagion effects between the markets. The fact that during the crisis the conditional correlations remain on a high level indicates a continuous herding behaviour during these periods of increased market volatility. Finally, during the recent Global financial crisis the correlations remain on a much higher level than during the Asian financial crisis.

The factors affecting the international judgement of the Forint and Zloty in the light of the financial crisis of year 2008

The financial crisis of 2007-2009 has shaken both money and capital markets. Its consequences have not even left European markets untouched and divided spirits in the financial world. In some countries efforts by the monetary policy to protect the national currency throughout the crisis seemed to be ineffective. In the present paper we are investigating the effect of the most important macroeconomic and economic policy factors on the exchange rate of the forint and zloty in the last decade. For an analysis of exchange rates we are relying on some preceding research results based on equilibrium exchange rate theories.

Impact of the Financial Crisis on the Performance of European Acquisitions

This study looks at the impact of the recent financial crisis on the short-term performance of European acquisitions. We use institutional theory and transaction cost economic theory to study whether bidders derive lower or higher returns from acquisitions announced after 2008. We investigate shareholders’ stock price reaction to 2245 deals which occurred during 2004–12 across 22 European Union countries. Our results from both univariate and multivariate analysis show that the deals announced in the post-crisis period, corresponding to the period of economic recession, generate higher returns to shareholders as compared to acquisitions announced in the pre-crisis period. We also test the relevance of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), that is, the Eurozone, to this value accrual during the recessionary period. We observe that non-EMU transactions obtain significantly higher gains vis-à-vis EMU transactions in the post-crisis years. Overall, announcement returns of European acquisitions have been affected by the financial crisis and the global recession; and companies that target countries with different currency regimes are likely to generate better returns from their acquisitions.

Superando la crisis financiera global: una visión general de la experiencia canadiense

The first signs of a collapse in the U.S. mortgages market have proven to be more than the tip of the iceberg of unclear practices and financial products that leaded to the current economic crisis. In present-day time, when survey efforts and financial reforms are taking place, it sounds reasonable to explore the impact of the financial crisis on the Canadian economy, as it has been decidedly different from the American experience. It seems that Canadian financial systems have been largely distant from much of the financial storm. This document maintains that Canadian economic resistance is mainly attributable to a more conservative controlling environment, which minimized much of the questionable performance that drove out the world to the edge of financial crisis. Though it is not an exhaustive revision, this paper outlines the impacts of the economic crisis in Canada and highlights the basic factors that contributed to the Canadian experience.

Engineering a financial bloodbath: how sub-prime securitization destroyed the legitimacy of financial capitalism

"This book investigates the origins and implications of the securitization crisis, described by the chief executive of ANZ as a "financial services bloodbath". Based on extensive interviews it offers an integrated series of case studies drawn from the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia. A central purpose is to not only chart what went wrong with the investment houses and why the regulatory systems failed, but also provide policy guidance. The book therefore combines the empirical with the normative. In so doing, it provides a route map to navigate one of the most significant financial and regulatory failures in modern times."

Multicultural education, global studies and studies of Asia

Like other nations, Australia has experienced significant change in the past few decades as its society has become increasingly diverse. The new cultures and traditions that result from ethnic and religious diversity have both enriched Australian society and presented it with some challenges. Other challenges have resulted from increased globalisation. For example, the economic fallout from the recent global financial crisis indicates that global issues can impact across a range of levels, from multinational corporations and nation-states to local sites and individual livelihoods. Some suggest that Australia fared better than other nations during this economic crisis because of its export trade with China. Although this is disputed by economists, it highlights another facet of change that is impacting on Australian society and this relates to Australia’s growing engagement with the nations of Asia. There is increasing awareness in education systems that if young people are to achieve their potential as future citizens they need to be able to negotiate the cultural, social, political and economic ties that connect them to the global and regional community through work, leisure and citizenship. Multicultural education, global studies and studies of Asia play a particular part in helping young people to: • appreciate cultural diversity within and beyond their own nation • imagine with some accuracy how others view their world • participate in shaping a better future. This chapter explores the origins, distinctions and common features of each approach.

Towards a global carbon integrity system : learning from the GFC and avoiding a GCC

This paper examines some of the central global ethical and governance challenges of climate change and carbon emis-sions reduction in relation to globalization, the “global financial crisis” (GFC), and unsustainable conceptions of the “good life”, and argues in favour of the development of a global carbon “integrity system”. It is argued that a funda-mental driver of our climate problems is the incipient spread of an unsustainable Western version of the “good life”, where resource-intensive, high-carbon western lifestyles, although frequently criticized as unsustainable and deeply unsatisfying, appear to have established an unearned ethical legitimacy. While the ultimate solution to climate change is the development of low carbon lifestyles, the paper argues that it is also important that economic incentives support and stimulate that search: the sustainable versions of the good life provide an ethical pull, whilst the incentives provide an economic push. Yet, if we are going to secure sustainable low carbon lifestyles, it is argued, we need more than the ethical pull and the economic push. Each needs to be institutionalized—built into the governance of global, regional, national, sub-regional, corporate and professional institutions. Where currently weakness in each exacerbates the weaknesses in others, it is argued that governance reform is required in all areas supporting sustainable, low carbon versions of the good life.

ACE research briefing paper 005: Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) - Australia 2011 National Report

This report maps the current state of entrepreneurship in Australia using data from the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) for the year 2011. Entrepreneurship is regarded as a crucial driver for economic well-being. Entrepreneurial activity in new and established firms drives innovation and creates jobs. Entrepreneurs also fuel competition thereby contributing indirectly to market and productivity growth along with improving competitiveness of the national economy. Given the economic landscape that exists as a result of the global financial crisis (GFC), it is probably more important than ever for us to understand the effects and drivers of entrepreneurial activity and attitudes in Australia. The central finding of this report is that entrepreneurship is certainly alive and well in Australia. With 10.5 per cent of the adult population involved in setting up a new business or owning a newly founded business as measured by the total entrepreneurial activity rate (TEA) in 2011, Australia ranks second only to the United States among the innovation-driven (developed) economies. Compared with 2010 the TEA rate has increased by 2.7 percentage points. Furthermore, in regard to employee entrepreneurial activity (EEA) rate in established firms, Australia ranks above average. According to GEM data, 5 per cent of the adult population is engaged in developing or launching new products, a new business unit or subsidiary for their employer. Further analysis of the GEM data also clearly shows that Australia compares well with other major economies in terms of the ‘quality’ of entrepreneurial activities being pursued. Indeed, it is not only the quantity of entrepreneurs but also the level of their aspirations and business goals that are important drivers for economic growth. On average, for each business started in Australia driven by the lack of alternatives for the founder to generate income from any other source, there are five other businesses started where the founders specifically want to take advantage of a business opportunity that they believe will increase their personal income or independence. With respect to innovativeness, 31 per cent of Australian new businesses offer products or services which they consider to be new to customers or where very few, or in some cases no, other businesses offer the same product or service. Both these indicators are higher than the average for innovation-driven economies. Somewhat below average is the international orientation of Australian entrepreneurs whereby only 12 per cent aim at having a substantial share of customers from international markets. So what drives this high quantity and quality of entrepreneurship in Australia? The analysis of the data suggests it is a combination of both business opportunities and entrepreneurial skills. It seems that around 50 per cent of the Australian population identify opportunities for a start-up venture and believe that they have the necessary skills to start a business. Furthermore, a large majority of the Australian population report that high media attention for entrepreneurship provides successful role models for prospective entrepreneurs. As a result, 12 per cent of our respondents have expressed the intention to start a business within the next three years. These numbers are all well above average when compared to the other major economies. With regard to gender, the GEM survey shows a high proportion of female entrepreneurs. Approximately 8.4 per cent of adult females are actually involved in setting up a business or have recently done so. Although this female TEA rate is slightly down from 2010, Australia ranks second among the innovation-driven economies. This paints a healthy picture of access to entrepreneurial opportunities for Australian women.

In the bank or on the ground : an examination of financial reserves in Australian international aid organisations

This study contributes to the understanding of the contribution of financial reserves to sustaining nonprofit organisations. Recognising the limited recent Australian research in the area of nonprofit financial vulnerability, it specifically examines financial reserves held by signatories to the Code of Conduct of the Australian Council for International Development (ACFID) for the years 2006 to 2010. As this period includes the Global Financial Crisis, it presents a unique opportunity to observe the role of savings in a period of heightened financial threats to sustainability. The need for nonprofit entities to maintain reserves, while appearing intuitively evident, is neither unanimously accepted nor supported by established theoretic constructs. Some early frameworks attempt to explain the savings behaviour of nonprofit organisations and its role in organisational sustainability. Where researchers have considered the issue, its treatment has usually been either purely descriptive or alternatively, peripheral to a broader attempt to predict financial vulnerability. Given the importance of nonprofit entities to civil society, the sustainability of these organisations during times of economic contraction, such as the recent Global Financial Crisis, is a significant issue. Widespread failure of nonprofits, or even the perception of failure, will directly affect, not only those individuals who access their public goods and services, but would also have impacts on public confidence in both government and the sectors’ ability to manage and achieve their purpose. This study attempts to ‘shine a light’ on the paradox inherent in considering nonprofit savings. On the one hand, a public prevailing view is that nonprofit organisations should not hoard and indeed, should spend all of their funds on the direct achievement of their purposes. Against this, is the commonsense need for a financial buffer if only to allow for the day to day contingencies of pay rises and cost increases. At the entity level, the extent of reserves accumulated (or not) is an important consideration for Management Boards. The general public are also interested in knowing the level of funds held by nonprofits as a measure of both their commitment to purpose and as an indicator of their effectiveness. There is a need to communicate the level and prevalence of reserve holdings, balancing the prudent hedging of uncertainty against a sense of resource hoarding in the mind of donors. Finally, funders (especially governments) are interested in knowing the appropriate level of reserves to facilitate the ongoing sustainability of the sector. This is particularly so where organisations are involved in the provision of essential public goods and services. At a scholarly level, the study seeks to provide a rationale for this behaviour within the context of appropriate theory. At a practical level, the study seeks to give an indication of the drivers for savings, the actual levels of reserves held within the sector studied, as well as an indication as to whether the presence of reserves did mitigate the effects of financial turmoil during the Global Financial Crisis. The argument is not whether there is a need to ensure sustainability of nonprofits, but rather how it is to be done and whether the holding of reserves (net assets) is an essential element is achieving this. While the study offers no simple answers, it does appear that the organisations studied present as two groups, the ‘savers’ who build reserves and keep ‘money in the bank’ and ‘spender-delivers’ who put their resources ‘on the ground’. To progress an understanding of this dichotomy, the study suggests a need to move from its current approach to one which needs to more closely explore accounts based empirical donor attitude and nonprofit Management Board strategy.

Financialization, crisis and commodity correlation dynamics

Stronger investor interest in commodities may create closer integration with conventional asset markets. We estimate sudden and gradual changes in correlation between stocks, bonds and commodity futures returns driven by observable financial variables and time, using double smooth transition conditional correlation (DSTCC–GARCH) models. Most correlations begin the 1990s near zero but closer integration emerges around the early 2000s and reaches peaks during the recent crisis. Diversification benefits to investors across equity, bond and stock markets were significantly reduced. Increases in VIX and financial traders’ short open interest raise futures returns volatility for many commodities. Higher VIX also increases commodity returns correlation with equity returns for about half the pairs, indicating closer integration.

Financial Markets, Institutions and Money [3rd ed.]

"The financial system is a key influencer of the health and efficiency of an economy. The role of the financial system is to gather money from people and businesses that currently have more money than they need and transfer it to those that can use it for either business or consumer expenditures. This flow of funds through financial markets and institutions in the Australian economy is huge (in the billions of dollars), affecting business profits, the rate of inflation, interest rates and the production of goods and services. In general, the larger the flow of funds and the more efficient the financial system, the greater the economic output and welfare in the economy. It is not possible to have a modern, complex economy such as that in Australia, without an efficient and sound financial system. The global financial crisis (GFC) of late 2007–09 (and the ensuing European debt crisis), where the global financial market was on the brink of collapse with only significant government intervention stopping a catastrophic global failure of the market, illustrated the importance of the financial system. Financial Markets, Institutions and Money 3rd edition introduces students to the financial system, its operations, and participants. The text offers a fresh, succinct analysis of the financial markets and discusses how the many participants in the financial system interrelate. This includes coverage of regulators, regulations and the role of the Reserve Bank of Australia, that ensure the system’s smooth running, which is essential to a modern economy. The text has been significantly revised to take into account changes in the financial world."---publisher website Table of Contents 1. The financial system - an overview 2. The Monetary Authorities 3. The Reserve Bank of Australia and interest rates 4. The level of interest rates 5. Mathematics of finance 6. Bond Prices and interest rate risk 7. The Structure of Interest Rates 8. Money Markets 9. Bond Markets 10. Equity Markets

Transfer pricing and multinational financial institutions : the case for replacing arm’s length price with a unitary approach

The international tax system, designed a century ago, has not kept pace with the modern multinational entity rendering it ineffective in taxing many modern businesses according to economic activity. One of those modern multinational entities is the multinational financial institution (MNFI). The recent global financial crisis provides a particularly relevant and significant example of the failure of the current system on a global scale. The modern MNFI is increasingly undertaking more globalised and complex trading operations. A primary reason for the globalisation of financial institutions is that they typically ‘follow-the-customer’ into jurisdictions where international capital and international investors are required. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently reported that from 1995-2009, foreign bank presence in developing countries grew by 122 per cent. The same study indicates that foreign banks have a 20 per cent market share in OECD countries and 50 per cent in emerging markets and developing countries. Hence, most significant is that fact that MNFIs are increasingly undertaking an intermediary role in developing economies where they are financing core business activities such as mining and tourism. IMF analysis also suggests that in the future, foreign bank expansion will be greatest in emerging economies. The difficulties for developing countries in applying current international tax rules, especially the current traditional transfer pricing regime, are particularly acute in relation to MNFIs, which are the biggest users of tax havens and offshore finance. This paper investigates whether a unitary taxation approach which reflects economic reality would more easily and effectively ensure that the profits of MNFIs are taxed in the jurisdictions which give rise to those profits. It has previously been argued that the uniqueness of MNFIs results in a failure of the current system to accurately allocate profits and that unitary tax as an alternative could provide a sounder allocation model for international tax purposes. This paper goes a step further, and examines the practicalities of the implementation of unitary taxation for MNFIs in terms of the key components of such a regime, along with their their implications. This paper adopts a two-step approach in considering the implications of unitary taxation as a means of improved corporate tax coordination which requires international acceptance and agreement. First, the definitional issues of the unitary MNFI are examined and second, an appropriate allocation formula for this sector is investigated. To achieve this, the paper asks first, how the financial sector should be defined for the purposes of unitary taxation and what should constitute a unitary business for that sector and second, what is the ‘best practice’ model of an allocation formula for the purposes of the apportionment of the profits of the unitary business of a financial institution.