War, Peace and World Orders from Antiquity until the 20th century

Chapters contributed by experts on each period examine how world views have determined the view of war and peace, and the conduct of war, throughout European history.

The Asian summer monsoon: an intercomparison of CMIP5 vs. CMIP3 simulations of the late 20th century

The boreal summer Asian monsoon has been evaluated in 25 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-5 (CMIP5) and 22 CMIP3 GCM simulations of the late 20th Century. Diagnostics and skill metrics have been calculated to assess the time-mean, climatological annual cycle, interannual variability, and intraseasonal variability. Progress has been made in modeling these aspects of the monsoon, though there is no single model that best represents all of these aspects of the monsoon. The CMIP5 multi-model mean (MMM) is more skillful than the CMIP3 MMM for all diagnostics in terms of the skill of simulating pattern correlations with respect to observations. Additionally, for rainfall/convection the MMM outperforms the individual models for the time mean, the interannual variability of the East Asian monsoon, and intraseasonal variability. The pattern correlation of the time (pentad) of monsoon peak and withdrawal is better simulated than that of monsoon onset. The onset of the monsoon over India is typically too late in the models. The extension of the monsoon over eastern China, Korea, and Japan is underestimated, while it is overestimated over the subtropical western/central Pacific Ocean. The anti-correlation between anomalies of all-India rainfall and Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature is overly strong in CMIP3 and typically too weak in CMIP5. For both the ENSO-monsoon teleconnection and the East Asian zonal wind-rainfall teleconnection, the MMM interannual rainfall anomalies are weak compared to observations. Though simulation of intraseasonal variability remains problematic, several models show improved skill at representing the northward propagation of convection and the development of the tilted band of convection that extends from India to the equatorial west Pacific. The MMM also well represents the space-time evolution of intraseasonal outgoing longwave radiation anomalies. Caution is necessary when using GPCP and CMAP rainfall to validate (1) the time-mean rainfall, as there are systematic differences over ocean and land between these two data sets, and (2) the timing of monsoon withdrawal over India, where the smooth southward progression seen in India Meteorological Department data is better realized in CMAP data compared to GPCP data.

Patterns of coronary heart disease mortality over the 20th century in England and Wales : possible plateaus in the rate of decline

Background
Coronary heart disease (CHD) rates in England and Wales between 1950 and 2005 were high and reasonably steady until the mid 1970s, when they began to fall. Recent work suggests that the rate of change in some groups has begun to decrease and may be starting to plateau or even reverse.

Methods
Data for all deaths between 1931 and 2005 in England and Wales were grouped by year, sex, age at death and contemporaneous ICD code for CHD as cause of death. CHD mortality rates by calendar year and birth cohort were produced for both sexes and rates of change were examined.

Results
The pattern of increased burden of CHD mortality within older age groups has only recently emerged in men, whereas it has been established in women for far longer. CHD mortality rates among younger people showed little variation by birth cohort. For younger women (49 and under), the rate of change in CHD mortality has reversed in the last 20 years, indicating a future plateau and possible reversal of previous improvement in CHD mortality rates. Among younger men the rate of change in CHD mortality has been consistent for the past 15 years indicating that rates in this group have continued to fall steadily.

Conclusion
Although CHD mortality rates continue to drop in older age groups the actual burden of coronary heart disease is increasing due to the ageing of the population. The rate of improvement in CHD mortality appears to be beginning to decline and may even be reversing among younger women.

The rise and fall of urban squatter settlements in Santiago de Chile

The thesis examines the forces at work that resulted in the proliferation in the 1950s-60s, and then the subsequent decline, in the number of urban squatter settelements in Santiago, Chile. A feature of the work is the fieldwork investigation on the material conditions within the squatter settlements households.

Wool industry : a decade of turbulence : an examination of some of the factors contributing to the crisis within Australia's wool industry, and the resulting economic, social and demographic effects on a small isolated rural community

A central issue of this thesis has been an examination of the effects that the current wool crisis has had on the Balmoral district, an area almost solely devoted to the production of wool and wool sheep. Examines the methods being utilised to try to alleviate some of these effects.

Geelong region survey of business trends 2014

The Deakin Business School and the Geelong Chamber of Commerce undertook a survey of business confidence and industry activity in the Geelong region in 2014. The main objectives of the research were to measure current and future business confidence, activity, and profitability and to provide information relevant to the needs of businesses and industry for planning and other purposes. Information wascollected by an on-line survey of 1,571 businesses with 194 usable responses representing a 12.3% response rate. The findings are relevant to responses frombusinesses registered with the Geelong Chamber of Commerce and the Geelong Central Marketing group. The report contains information about business activity, perceptions about the future of business in Geelong and the barriers that have to be addressed to ensure success.

Service providers' experiences and needs in working with refugees in the Geelong region: a qualitative study

Service providers in Geelong, one of the priority locations for the resettlement of refugees in regional Australia, were interviewed to explore their perceptions of the health and wellbeing needs of refugees, and the capacity of service providers in a regional area to meet these. In all, 22 interviews were conducted with health and human service professionals in a range of organisations offering refugee-specific services, culturally and linguistically diverse (CALD) services in general, and services to the wider community, including refugees. The findings revealed that a more coordinated approach would increase the effectiveness of existing services; however, the various needs of refugees were more than could be met by organisations in the region at current resource levels. More staff and interpreting services were required, as well as professional development for staff who have had limited experience in working with refugees. It should not be assumed that service needs for refugees resettled in regional Australia will be the same as those of refugees resettled in capital cities. Some services provided in Melbourne were not available in Geelong, and there were services not currently provided to refugees that may be critical in facilitating resettlement in regional and rural Australia.

On the welfare costs of business cycles in the 20th century

Lucas (1987) has shown a surprising result in business-cycle research, that the welfare cost of business cycles are relatively small. Using standard assumptions on preferences and a reasonable reduced form for consumption, we computed these welfare costs for the pre- and post-WWII era, using three alternative trend-cycle decomposition methods. The post-WWII period is very era this basic result is dramatically altered. For the Beveridge and Nelson decomposition, and reasonable preference parameter and discount values, we get a compensation of about 5% of consumption, which is by all means a sizable welfare cost (about US$ 1,000.00 a year).