O impacto do excesso de gordura corporal sobre a remodelação óssea de adolescentes

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Electric consumption in SHSs in rural communities of brazil and Peru and recommendations for sizing

The lack of data records of electric power consumption of smallphotovoltaic home systems, independently of the method used for sizing them, drives to consider the demand as a constant. However, the existing data reveal the variability of the consumption due to the influences of some social, cultural and psychosocial aspects of the human groups. This paper presents records of consumption data obtainedfrom several solar home systems (SHSs) in Brazil and Peru, and it discusses about the Gamma distribution function that can express to a great extent the behaviour of the demand. By this analysis it was verified that `a lot of people consume little and few people consume a lot`. In that sense, a few recommendations for sizing procedures that can be useful in the implantation of extensive programmes of rural electrification by SHSs are presented. Copyright (c) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A general threshold stress hybrid hazard model for lifetime data

In this paper we propose a hybrid hazard regression model with threshold stress which includes the proportional hazards and the accelerated failure time models as particular cases. To express the behavior of lifetimes the generalized-gamma distribution is assumed and an inverse power law model with a threshold stress is considered. For parameter estimation we develop a sampling-based posterior inference procedure based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques. We assume proper but vague priors for the parameters of interest. A simulation study investigates the frequentist properties of the proposed estimators obtained under the assumption of vague priors. Further, some discussions on model selection criteria are given. The methodology is illustrated on simulated and real lifetime data set.

The new class of Kummer beta generalized distributions

Ng and Kotz (1995) introduced a distribution that provides greater flexibility to extremes. We define and study a new class of distributions called the Kummer beta generalized family to extend the normal, Weibull, gamma and Gumbel distributions, among several other well-known distributions. Some special models are discussed. The ordinary moments of any distribution in the new family can be expressed as linear functions of probability weighted moments of the baseline distribution. We examine the asymptotic distributions of the extreme values. We derive the density function of the order statistics, mean absolute deviations and entropies. We use maximum likelihood estimation to fit the distributions in the new class and illustrate its potentiality with an application to a real data set.

Clinical correlates of social adjustment in patients with obsessive-compulsive disorder

Background: Patients with obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) frequently show poor social adjustment, which has been associated with OCD severity. Little is known about the effects that age at symptom onset, specific OCD symptoms, and psychiatric comorbidities have on social adjustment. The objective of this study was to investigate the clinical correlates of social functioning in OCD patients. Methods: Cross-sectional study involving 815 adults with a primary DSM-IV diagnosis of OCD participating in the Brazilian Research Consortium on Obsessive-Compulsive Spectrum Disorders. Patients were assessed with the Social Adjustment Scale, the Medical Outcomes Study 36-item Short-Form Health Survey, the Yale-Brown Obsessive-Compulsive Scale, the Dimensional Yale-Brown Obsessive-Compulsive Scale, and the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV Axis I Disorders. Clinical correlates of social adjustment were assessed with generalized linear models with gamma distribution. Results: Poor overall social functioning was associated with greater OCD severity (p = 0.02); hoarding symptoms (p = 0.004); sexual/religious obsessions (p = 0.005); current major depressive disorder (p = 0.004); current post-traumatic stress disorder (p = 0.002); and current eating disorders (p = 0.02). Poor social adjustment was also associated with impaired quality of life. Conclusions: Patients with OCD have poor social functioning in domains related to personal relationships and professional performance. Hoarding symptoms and sexual/religious obsessions seem to have the strongest negative effects on social functioning. Early age at OCD symptom onset seems to be associated with professional and academic underachievement and impairment within the family unit, whereas current psychiatric comorbidity worsen overall social functioning. In comparison with quality of life, social adjustment measures seem to provide a more comprehensive overview of the OCD-related burden. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The photosynthetic bacterial reaction center in native and artificial envirnoments: effects on light-induced electron transfer

In this thesis we focussed on the characterization of the reaction center (RC) protein purified from the photosynthetic bacterium Rhodobacter sphaeroides. In particular, we discussed the effects of native and artificial environment on the light-induced electron transfer processes. The native environment consist of the inner antenna LH1 complex that copurifies with the RC forming the so called core complex, and the lipid phase tightly associated with it. In parallel, we analyzed the role of saccharidic glassy matrices on the interplay between electron transfer processes and internal protein dynamics. As a different artificial matrix, we incorporated the RC protein in a layer-by-layer structure with a twofold aim: to check the behaviour of the protein in such an unusual environment and to test the response of the system to herbicides. By examining the RC in its native environment, we found that the light-induced charge separated state P+QB - is markedly stabilized (by about 40 meV) in the core complex as compared to the RC-only system over a physiological pH range. We also verified that, as compared to the average composition of the membrane, the core complex copurifies with a tightly bound lipid complement of about 90 phospholipid molecules per RC, which is strongly enriched in cardiolipin. In parallel, a large ubiquinone pool was found in association with the core complex, giving rise to a quinone concentration about ten times larger than the average one in the membrane. Moreover, this quinone pool is fully functional, i.e. it is promptly available at the QB site during multiple turnover excitation of the RC. The latter two observations suggest important heterogeneities and anisotropies in the native membranes which can in principle account for the stabilization of the charge separated state in the core complex. The thermodynamic and kinetic parameters obtained in the RC-LH1 complex are very close to those measured in intact membranes, indicating that the electron transfer properties of the RC in vivo are essentially determined by its local environment. The studies performed by incorporating the RC into saccharidic matrices evidenced the relevance of solvent-protein interactions and dynamical coupling in determining the kinetics of electron transfer processes. The usual approach when studying the interplay between internal motions and protein function consists in freezing the degrees of freedom of the protein at cryogenic temperature. We proved that the “trehalose approach” offers distinct advantages with respect to this traditional methodology. We showed, in fact, that the RC conformational dynamics, coupled to specific electron transfer processes, can be modulated by varying the hydration level of the trehalose matrix at room temperature, thus allowing to disentangle solvent from temperature effects. The comparison between different saccharidic matrices has revealed that the structural and dynamical protein-matrix coupling depends strongly upon the sugar. The analyses performed in RCs embedded in polyelectrolyte multilayers (PEM) structures have shown that the electron transfer from QA - to QB, a conformationally gated process extremely sensitive to the RC environment, can be strongly modulated by the hydration level of the matrix, confirming analogous results obtained for this electron transfer reaction in sugar matrices. We found that PEM-RCs are a very stable system, particularly suitable to study the thermodynamics and kinetics of herbicide binding to the QB site. These features make PEM-RC structures quite promising in the development of herbicide biosensors. The studies discussed in the present thesis have shown that, although the effects on electron transfer induced by the native and artificial environments tested are markedly different, they can be described on the basis of a common kinetic model which takes into account the static conformational heterogeneity of the RC and the interconversion between conformational substates. Interestingly, the same distribution of rate constants (i.e. a Gamma distribution function) can describe charge recombination processes in solutions of purified RC, in RC-LH1 complexes, in wet and dry RC-PEM structures and in glassy saccharidic matrices over a wide range of hydration levels. In conclusion, the results obtained for RCs in different physico-chemical environments emphasize the relevance of the structure/dynamics solvent/protein coupling in determining the energetics and the kinetics of electron transfer processes in a membrane protein complex.

Rainfall spatial predictions: a two-part model and its assessment

Spatial prediction of hourly rainfall via radar calibration is addressed. The change of support problem (COSP), arising when the spatial supports of different data sources do not coincide, is faced in a non-Gaussian setting; in fact, hourly rainfall in Emilia-Romagna region, in Italy, is characterized by abundance of zero values and right-skeweness of the distribution of positive amounts. Rain gauge direct measurements on sparsely distributed locations and hourly cumulated radar grids are provided by the ARPA-SIMC Emilia-Romagna. We propose a three-stage Bayesian hierarchical model for radar calibration, exploiting rain gauges as reference measure. Rain probability and amounts are modeled via linear relationships with radar in the log scale; spatial correlated Gaussian effects capture the residual information. We employ a probit link for rainfall probability and Gamma distribution for rainfall positive amounts; the two steps are joined via a two-part semicontinuous model. Three model specifications differently addressing COSP are presented; in particular, a stochastic weighting of all radar pixels, driven by a latent Gaussian process defined on the grid, is employed. Estimation is performed via MCMC procedures implemented in C, linked to R software. Communication and evaluation of probabilistic, point and interval predictions is investigated. A non-randomized PIT histogram is proposed for correctly assessing calibration and coverage of two-part semicontinuous models. Predictions obtained with the different model specifications are evaluated via graphical tools (Reliability Plot, Sharpness Histogram, PIT Histogram, Brier Score Plot and Quantile Decomposition Plot), proper scoring rules (Brier Score, Continuous Rank Probability Score) and consistent scoring functions (Root Mean Square Error and Mean Absolute Error addressing the predictive mean and median, respectively). Calibration is reached and the inclusion of neighbouring information slightly improves predictions. All specifications outperform a benchmark model with incorrelated effects, confirming the relevance of spatial correlation for modeling rainfall probability and accumulation.

Evaluation of a Bayesian MCMC Random Effects Inference Methodology for Capture-Mark-Recapture Data

Monte Carlo simulation was used to evaluate properties of a simple Bayesian MCMC analysis of the random effects model for single group Cormack-Jolly-Seber capture-recapture data. The MCMC method is applied to the model via a logit link, so parameters p, S are on a logit scale, where logit(S) is assumed to have, and is generated from, a normal distribution with mean μ and variance σ2 . Marginal prior distributions on logit(p) and μ were independent normal with mean zero and standard deviation 1.75 for logit(p) and 100 for μ ; hence minimally informative. Marginal prior distribution on σ2 was placed on τ2=1/σ2 as a gamma distribution with α=β=0.001 . The study design has 432 points spread over 5 factors: occasions (t) , new releases per occasion (u), p, μ , and σ . At each design point 100 independent trials were completed (hence 43,200 trials in total), each with sample size n=10,000 from the parameter posterior distribution. At 128 of these design points comparisons are made to previously reported results from a method of moments procedure. We looked at properties of point and interval inference on μ , and σ based on the posterior mean, median, and mode and equal-tailed 95% credibility interval. Bayesian inference did very well for the parameter μ , but under the conditions used here, MCMC inference performance for σ was mixed: poor for sparse data (i.e., only 7 occasions) or σ=0 , but good when there were sufficient data and not small σ .

3G network traffic sources measurement and analysis

In this paper, we show statistical analyses of several types of traffic sources in a 3G network, namely voice, video and data sources. For each traffic source type, measurements were collected in order to, on the one hand, gain better understanding of the statistical characteristics of the sources and, on the other hand, enable forecasting traffic behaviour in the network. The latter can be used to estimate service times and quality of service parameters. The probability density function, mean, variance, mean square deviation, skewness and kurtosis of the interarrival times are estimated by Wolfram Mathematica and Crystal Ball statistical tools. Based on evaluation of packet interarrival times, we show how the gamma distribution can be used in network simulations and in evaluation of available capacity in opportunistic systems. As a result, from our analyses, shape and scale parameters of gamma distribution are generated. Data can be applied also in dynamic network configuration in order to avoid potential network congestions or overflows. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Effects of two traits of the ecological state equation on our understanding of species coexistence and ecosystem services

Species coexistence has been a fundamental issue to understand ecosystem functioning since the beginnings of ecology as a science. The search of a reliable and all-encompassing explanation for this issue has become a complex goal with several apparently opposing trends. On the other side, seemingly unconnected with species coexistence, an ecological state equation based on the inverse correlation between an indicator of dispersal that fits gamma distribution and species diversity has been recently developed. This article explores two factors, whose effects are inconspicuous in such an equation at the first sight, that are used to develop an alternative general theoretical background in order to provide a better understanding of species coexistence. Our main outcomes are: (i) the fit of dispersal and diversity values to gamma distribution is an important factor that promotes species coexistence mainly due to the right-skewed character of gamma distribution; (ii) the opposite correlation between species diversity and dispersal implies that any increase of diversity is equivalent to a route of “ecological cooling” whose maximum limit should be constrained by the influence of the third law of thermodynamics; this is in agreement with the well-known asymptotic trend of diversity values in space and time; (iii) there are plausible empirical and theoretical ways to apply physical principles to explain important ecological processes; (iv) the gap between theoretical and empirical ecology in those cases where species diversity is paradoxically high could be narrowed by a wave model of species coexistence based on the concurrency of local equilibrium states. In such a model, competitive exclusion has a limited but indispensable role in harmonious coexistence with functional redundancy. We analyze several literature references as well as ecological and evolutionary examples that support our approach, reinforcing the meaning equivalence between important physical and ecological principles.

Models of DNA sequence evolution

Models of DNA sequence evolution and methods for estimating evolutionary distances are needed for studying the rate and pattern of molecular evolution and for inferring the evolutionary relationships of organisms or genes. In this dissertation, several new models and methods are developed.^ The rate variation among nucleotide sites: To obtain unbiased estimates of evolutionary distances, the rate heterogeneity among nucleotide sites of a gene should be considered. Commonly, it is assumed that the substitution rate varies among sites according to a gamma distribution (gamma model) or, more generally, an invariant+gamma model which includes some invariable sites. A maximum likelihood (ML) approach was developed for estimating the shape parameter of the gamma distribution $(\alpha)$ and/or the proportion of invariable sites $(\theta).$ Computer simulation showed that (1) under the gamma model, $\alpha$ can be well estimated from 3 or 4 sequences if the sequence length is long; and (2) the distance estimate is unbiased and robust against violations of the assumptions of the invariant+gamma model.^ However, this ML method requires a huge amount of computational time and is useful only for less than 6 sequences. Therefore, I developed a fast method for estimating $\alpha,$ which is easy to implement and requires no knowledge of tree. A computer program was developed for estimating $\alpha$ and evolutionary distances, which can handle the number of sequences as large as 30.^ Evolutionary distances under the stationary, time-reversible (SR) model: The SR model is a general model of nucleotide substitution, which assumes (i) stationary nucleotide frequencies and (ii) time-reversibility. It can be extended to SRV model which allows rate variation among sites. I developed a method for estimating the distance under the SR or SRV model, as well as the variance-covariance matrix of distances. Computer simulation showed that the SR method is better than a simpler method when the sequence length $L>1,000$ bp and is robust against deviations from time-reversibility. As expected, when the rate varies among sites, the SRV method is much better than the SR method.^ The evolutionary distances under nonstationary nucleotide frequencies: The statistical properties of the paralinear and LogDet distances under nonstationary nucleotide frequencies were studied. First, I developed formulas for correcting the estimation biases of the paralinear and LogDet distances. The performances of these formulas and the formulas for sampling variances were examined by computer simulation. Second, I developed a method for estimating the variance-covariance matrix of the paralinear distance, so that statistical tests of phylogenies can be conducted when the nucleotide frequencies are nonstationary. Third, a new method for testing the molecular clock hypothesis was developed in the nonstationary case. ^

Molecular evolution of primate immunodeficiency viruses and hepatitis delta virus

Primate immunodeficiency viruses, or lentiviruses (HIV-1, HIV-2, and SIV), and hepatitis delta virus (HDV) are RNA viruses characterized by rapid evolution. Infection by primate immunodeficiency viruses usually results in the development of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) in humans and AIDS-like illnesses in Asian macaques. Similarly, hepatitis delta virus infection causes hepatitis and liver cancer in humans. These viruses are heterogeneous within an infected patient and among individuals. Substitution rates in the virus genomes are high and vary in different lineages and among sites. Methods of phylogenetic analysis were applied to study the evolution of primate lentiviruses and the hepatitis delta virus. The following results have been obtained: (1) The substitution rate varies among sites of primate lentivirus genes according to the two parameter gamma distribution, with the shape parameter $\alpha$ being close to 1. (2) Primate immunodeficiency viruses fall into species-specific lineages. Therefore, viral transmissions across primate species are not as frequent as suggested by previous authors. (3) Primate lentiviruses have acquired or lost their pathogenicity several times in the course of evolution. (4) Evidence was provided for multiple infections of a North American patient by distinct HIV-1 strains of the B subtype. (5) Computer simulations indicate that the probability of committing an error in testing HIV transmission depends on the number of virus sequences and their length, the divergence times among sequences, and the model of nucleotide substitution. (6) For future investigations of HIV-1 transmissions, using longer virus sequences and avoiding the use of distant outgroups is recommended. (7) Hepatitis delta virus strains are usually related according to the geographic region of isolation. (8) Evolution of HDV is characterized by the rate of synonymous substitution being lower than the nonsynonymous substitution rate and the rate of evolution of the noncoding region. (9) There is a strong preference for G and C nucleotides at the third codon positions of the HDV coding region. ^

Survival analysis of longevity in siblings

Do siblings of centenarians tend to have longer life spans? To answer this question, life spans of 184 siblings for 42 centenarians have been evaluated. Two important questions have been addressed in analyzing the sibling data. First, a standard needs to be established, to which the life spans of 184 siblings are compared. In this report, an external reference population is constructed from the U.S. life tables. Its estimated mortality rates are treated as baseline hazards from which the relative mortality of the siblings are estimated. Second, the standard survival models which assume independent observations are invalid when correlation within family exists, underestimating the true variance. Methods that allow correlations are illustrated by three different methods. First, the cumulative relative excess mortality between siblings and their comparison group is calculated and used as an effective graphic tool, along with the Product Limit estimator of the survival function. The variance estimator of the cumulative relative excess mortality is adjusted for the potential within family correlation using Taylor linearization approach. Second, approaches that adjust for the inflated variance are examined. They are adjusted one-sample log-rank test using design effect originally proposed by Rao and Scott in the correlated binomial or Poisson distribution setting and the robust variance estimator derived from the log-likelihood function of a multiplicative model. Nether of these two approaches provide correlation estimate within families, but the comparison with the comparison with the standard remains valid under dependence. Last, using the frailty model concept, the multiplicative model, where the baseline hazards are known, is extended by adding a random frailty term that is based on the positive stable or the gamma distribution. Comparisons between the two frailty distributions are performed by simulation. Based on the results from various approaches, it is concluded that the siblings of centenarians had significant lower mortality rates as compared to their cohorts. The frailty models also indicate significant correlations between the life spans of the siblings. ^

Clinical and economic outcomes of serious postoperative infections following resection of common respiratory and gastrointestinal solid tumors

Unlike infections occurring during periods of chemotherapy-induced neutropenia, postoperative infections in patients with solid malignancy remain largely understudied. The purpose of this population-based study was to evaluate the clinical and economic burden, as well as the relationship of hospital surgical volume and outcomes associated with serious postoperative infection (SPI) – i.e., bacteremia/sepsis, pneumonia, and wound infection – following resection of common solid tumors.^ From the Texas Discharge Data Research File, we identified all Texas residents who underwent resection of cancer of the lung, esophagus, stomach, pancreas, colon, or rectum between 2002 and 2006. From their billing records, we identified ICD-9 codes indicating SPI and also subsequent SPI-related readmissions occurring within 30 days of surgery. Random-effects logistic regression was used to calculate the impact of SPI on mortality, as well as the association between surgical volume and SPI, adjusting for case-mix, hospital characteristics, and clustering of multiple surgical admissions within the same patient and patients within the same hospital. Excess bed days and costs were calculated by subtracting values for patients without infections from those with infections computed using multilevel mixed-effects generalized linear model by fitting a gamma distribution to the data using log link.^ Serious postoperative infection occurred following 9.4% of the 37,582 eligible tumor resections and was independently associated with an 11-fold increase in the odds of in-hospital mortality (95% Confidence Interval [95% CI], 6.7-18.5, P < 0.001). Patients with SPI required 6.3 additional hospital days (95% CI, 6.1 - 6.5) at an incremental cost of $16,396 (95% CI, $15,927–$16,875). There was a significant trend toward lower overall rates of SPI with higher surgical volume (P=0.037). ^ Due to the substantial morbidity, mortality, and excess costs associated with SPI following solid tumor resections and given that, under current reimbursement practices, most of this heavy burden is borne by acute care providers, it is imperative for hospitals to identify more effective prophylactic measures, so that these potentially preventable infections and their associated expenditures can be averted. Additional volume-outcomes research is also needed to identify infection prevention processes that can be transferred from higher- to lower-volume providers.^

A common oscillator for perceptual rivalries?

Perceptual rivalry is an oscillation of conscious experience that takes place despite univarying, if ambiguous, sensory input. Much current interest is focused on the controversy over the neural site of binocular rivalry, a variety of perceptual rivalry for which a number of different cortical regions have been implicated. Debate continues over the relative role of higher levels of processing compared with primary visual cortex and the suggestion that different forms of rivalry involve different cortical areas. Here we show that the temporal pattern of disappearance and reappearance in motion-induced blindness (MIB) (Bonneh et al, 2001 Nature 411 798-801) is highly correlated with the pattern of oscillation reported during binocular rivalry in the same individual. This correlation holds over a wide range of inter-individual variation. Temporal similarity in the two phenomena was strikingly confirmed by the effects of the hallucinogen LSD, which produced the same, extraordinary, pattern of increased rhythmicity in both kinds of perceptual oscillation. Furthermore, MIB demonstrates the two properties previously considered characteristic of binocular rivalry. Namely the distribution of dominance periods can be approximated by a gamma distribution and, in line with Levelt's second proposition of binocular rivalry, predominance of one perceptual phase can be increased through a reduction in the predominance time of the opposing phase. We conclude that (i) MIB is a form of perceptual rivalry, and (ii) there may be a common oscillator responsible for timing aspects of all forms of perceptual rivalry.