Stochastic modelling of rainfall from satellite data

Satellite-based rainfall monitoring is widely used for climatological studies because of its full global coverage but it is also of great importance for operational purposes especially in areas such as Africa where there is a lack of ground-based rainfall data. Satellite rainfall estimates have enormous potential benefits as input to hydrological and agricultural models because of their real time availability, low cost and full spatial coverage. One issue that needs to be addressed is the uncertainty on these estimates. This is particularly important in assessing the likely errors on the output from non-linear models (rainfall-runoff or crop yield) which make use of the rainfall estimates, aggregated over an area, as input. Correct assessment of the uncertainty on the rainfall is non-trivial as it must take account of • the difference in spatial support of the satellite information and independent data used for calibration • uncertainties on the independent calibration data • the non-Gaussian distribution of rainfall amount • the spatial intermittency of rainfall • the spatial correlation of the rainfall field This paper describes a method for estimating the uncertainty on satellite-based rainfall values taking account of these factors. The method involves firstly a stochastic calibration which completely describes the probability of rainfall occurrence and the pdf of rainfall amount for a given satellite value, and secondly the generation of ensemble of rainfall fields based on the stochastic calibration but with the correct spatial correlation structure within each ensemble member. This is achieved by the use of geostatistical sequential simulation. The ensemble generated in this way may be used to estimate uncertainty at larger spatial scales. A case study of daily rainfall monitoring in the Gambia, west Africa for the purpose of crop yield forecasting is presented to illustrate the method.

Horses naturally infected by Trypanosoma vivax in southern Brazil

In this study, we reported the first outbreak of the infection by Trypanosoma vivax in horses in southern Brazil, a non-endemic region where bovines have only recently been found infected by this trypanosome species. We evaluated 12 horses from a farm in southern Brazil, where four horses displayed pale mucous membranes, fever, weight loss, and swelling of abdomen, prepuce, or vulva. The diagnosis of T vivax was confirmed in four horses by morphological parameters of trypomastigotes in blood smears and species-specific PCR. All T vivax-infected animals showed anemia, and most showed increased levels of beta-1, beta-2, and gamma globulins. Horses were treated with diminazene aceturate, but cure was not achieved, and the disease relapsed after therapy. These findings demonstrated that Brazilian T vivax isolates, which were already reported infecting cattle, buffaloes, goats, and sheep, can be highly pathogenic for horses, causing severe disease and even death of the animals due to the recurrence of the infection.

Evaluación del trabajo de campo del método de la sobrevivencia de hermanas para medir la mortalidad materna

Incluye Bibliografía

Estimaciones de mortalidad materna a partir del método de sobrevivencia de hermanas: experiencias en América Latina

Incluye Bibliografía

The sisterhood method to estimate maternal mortality: applications with special reference to Latin America

Includes bibliography

Microsatellite analysis supports clonal propagation and reduced divergence of Trypanosoma vivax from asymptomatic to fatally infected livestock in South America compared to West Africa

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Grain-size analysis and geochemistry of sediment core GeoB13602-1

Grain-size, terrigenous element and rock magnetic remanence data of Quaternary marine sediments retrieved at the NW African continental margin off Gambia (gravity core GeoB 13602-1, 13°32.71' N, 17°50.96'W) were jointly analyzed by end-member (EM) unmixing methods to distinguish and budget past terrigenous fluxes. We compare and cross-validate the identified single-parameter EM systems and develop a numerical strategy to calculate associated multi-parameter EM properties. One aeolian and two fluvial EMs were found. The aeolian EM is much coarser than the fluvial EMs and is associated with a lower goethite/hematite ratio, a higher relative concentration of magnetite and lower Al/Si and Fe/K ratios. Accumulation rates and grain sizes of the fluvial sediment appear to be primarily constrained by shore distance (i.e., sea-level fluctuations) and to a lesser extent by changes in hinterland precipitation. High dust fluxes occurred during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and during Heinrich Stadials (HS) while the fluvial input remained unchanged. Our approach reveals that the LGM dust fluxes were ~7 times higher than today's. However, by far the highest dust accumulation occurred during HS 1 (~300 g m**-2 yr** -1), when dust fluxes were ~80 fold higher than today. Such numbers have not yet been reported for NW Africa, and emphasize strikingly different environmental conditions during HSs. They suggest that deflation rate and areal extent of HSs dust sources were much larger due to retreating vegetation covers. Beyond its regional and temporal scope, this study develops new, in principle, generally applicable strategies for multi-method end-member interpretation, validation and flux budgeting calibration.