Self, mémoire épisodique et narration chez l'enfant de 6 à 9 ans

Le self est une notion polysémique qui fait l'objet d'un consensus relatif dans plusieurs domaines, dont la psychologie du développement. Elle rend compte de la faculté de s'éprouver le même au fil du temps et de distinguer le « je » qui regarde du « moi » regardé. C'est le garant d'un sens de soi plus ou moins cohérent au fil du temps, en dépit des changements qui surviennent au cours de la vie. Le self combine des processus de réflexivité et d'intersubjectivité. Nous en avons analysé trois composantes fonctionnelles : la mémoire de travail, la mémoire épisodique et la narration, à partir d'un protocole expérimental témoignant de son ontogenèse chez des enfants de 6 à 9 ans (n=24 répartis en deux groupes de 6‐7 et 8-9 ans). Nous avons créé le « jeu informatique du lutin » qui propose un parcours semiorienté dans un monde imaginaire. C'est une narration de soi, opérant la mise en sens des temporalités et des espaces auxquels les événements se réfèrent. Deux semaines après cette « aventure », on recueille la narration des souvenirs épisodiques de cette histoire. Nous avons également utilisé un test de mémoire de travail visuospatiale non verbale. Des différences développementales affectent les dimensions narratives de la mémoire de l'épisode du jeu, comme l'efficacité de la mémoire de travail visuospatiale. Ces développements témoignent d'une augmentation de « l'épaisseur temporelle de la conscience» entre 6 et 9 ans. L'épaisseur de la conscience renvoie fondamentalement à la faculté du self de vivre le temps dans une cyclicité incluant le passé, le présent et le futur anticipé. Le développment observé élargit les possibilités de mettre en lien des mémoires et des scénarios futurs, tout comme les mises en sens des relations aux autres et à soi-­même. Self is a polysemic concept of common use in various scientific fields, among which developmental psychology. It accounts for the capacity to maintain the conviction to be « oneself », always the same through circumstances and throughout my life. This important function contributes in maintaining coherence and some sorte of Ariadne's thread in memory. To analyse the ontogeny of the self, we have focused upon three components : working memory, episodic memory and narration in children aged between 6 and 9 years. We used a non verbal working memory task. It was completed by a video game specially designed for our purpose, in which children were engaged in moving an elf in a landscape changing through seasons, in order to deliver a princess from a mischievous wizard. Two weeks after the game, the children had to tell what happened while they moved the elf. It is a self-narrative that creates a link‐up of temporality and spaces to which the events refer. The narrated episode was assessed for its coherence and continuity dimensions. Developmental differences affect the narrative dimensions of the memory of the episode of the game, as the effectiveness of visuospatial working memory. These developments show an increase in "temporal thickness of consciousness" between 6 and 9 years. The thickness of consciousness basically refers to the ability of the self to live in a cyclical time including past, present and anticipated future. The observed development broadens the possibilities to link memories and future scenarios, like setting sense of relations with others and with oneself.

Maritime transportation in the Gulf of Finland in 2007 and in 2015

The Gulf of Finland is said to be one of the densest operated sea areas in the world. It is a shallow and economically vulnerable sea area with dense passenger and cargo traffic of which petroleum transports have a share of over 50 %. The winter conditions add to the risks of maritime traffic in the Gulf of Finland. It is widely believed that the growth of maritime transportation will continue also in the future. The Gulf of Finland is surrounded by three very different national economies with, different maritime transportation structures. Finland is a country of high GDP/per capita with a diversified economic structure. The number of ports is large and the maritime transportation consists of many types of cargoes: raw materials, industrial products, consumer goods, coal and petroleum products, and the Russian transit traffic of e.g. new cars and consumer goods. Russia is a large country with huge growth potential; in recent years, the expansion of petroleum exports has lead to a strong economic growth, which is also apparent in the growth of maritime transports. Russia has been expanding its port activities in the Gulf of Finland and it is officially aiming to transport its own imports and exports through the Russian ports in the future; now they are being transported to great extend through the Finnish, Estonian and other Baltic ports. Russia has five ports in the Gulf of Finland. Estonia has also experienced fast economic growth, but the growth has been slowing down already during the past couples of years. The size of its economy is small compared to Russia, which means the transported tonnes cannot be very massive. However, relatively large amounts of the Russian petroleum exports have been transported through the Estonian ports. The future of the Russian transit traffic in Estonia looks nevertheless uncertain and it remains to be seen how it will develop and if Estonia is able to find replacing cargoes if the Russian transit traffic will come to an end in the Estonian ports. Estonia’s own import and export consists of forestry products, metals or other raw materials and consumer goods. Estonia has many ports on the shores of the Gulf of Finland, but the port of Tallinn dominates the cargo volumes. In 2007, 263 M tonnes of cargoes were transported in the maritime traffic in the Gulf of Finland, of which the share of petroleum products was 56 %. 23 % of the cargoes were loaded or unloaded in the Finnish ports, 60 % in the Russian ports and 17 % in the Estonian ports. The largest ports were Primorsk (74.2 M tonnes) St. Petersburg (59.5 M tonnes), Tallinn (35.9 M tonnes), Sköldvik (19.8 M tonnes), Vysotsk (16.5 M tonnes) and Helsinki (13.4 M) tonnes. Approximately 53 600 ship calls were made in the ports of the Gulf of Finland. The densest traffic was found in the ports of St. Petersburg (14 651 ship calls), Helsinki (11 727 ship calls) and Tallinn (10 614 ship calls) in 2007. The transportation scenarios are usually based on the assumption that the amount of transports follows the development of the economy, although also other factors influence the development of transportation, e.g. government policy, environmental aspects, and social and behavioural trends. The relationship between the development of transportation and the economy is usually analyzed in terms of the development of GDP and trade. When the GDP grows to a certain level, especially the international transports increase because countries of high GDP produce, consume and thus transport more. An effective transportation system is also a precondition for the economic development. In this study, the following factors were taken into consideration when formulating the future scenarios: maritime transportation in the Gulf of Finland 2007, economic development, development of key industries, development of infrastructure and environmental aspects in relation to maritime transportation. The basic starting points for the three alternative scenarios were: • the slow growth scenario: economic recession • the average growth scenario: economy will recover quickly from current instability • the strong growth scenario: the most optimistic views on development will realize According to the slow growth scenario, the total tonnes for the maritime transportation in the Gulf of Finland would be 322.4 M tonnes in 2015, which would mean a growth of 23 % compared to 2007. In the average growth scenario, the total tonnes were estimated to be 431.6 M tonnes – a growth of 64 %, and in the strong growth scenario 507.2 M tonnes – a growth of 93%. These tonnes were further divided into petroleum products and other cargoes by country, into export, import and domestic traffic by country, and between the ports. For petroleum products, the share of crude oil and oil products was estimated and the number of tanker calls in 2015 was calculated for each scenario. However, the future development of maritime transportation in the GoF is dependent on so many societal and economic variables that it is not realistic to predict one exact point estimate value for the cargo tonnes for a certain scenario. Plenty of uncertainty is related both to the degree in which the scenario will come true as well as to the cause-effect relations between the different variables. For these reasons, probability distributions for each scenario were formulated by an expert group. As a result, a range for the total tonnes of each scenario was formulated and they are as follows: the slow growth scenario: 280.8 – 363 M tonnes (expectation value 322.4 M tonnes)

Externalities of Shipping in the Gulf of Finland until 2015

During the last few years, the discussion on the marginal social costs of transportation has been active. Applying the externalities as a tool to control transport would fulfil the polluter pays principle and simultaneously create a fair control method between the transport modes. This report presents the results of two calculation algorithms developed to estimate the marginal social costs based on the externalities of air pollution. The first algorithm calculates the future scenarios of sea transport traffic externalities until 2015 in the Gulf of Finland. The second algorithm calculates the externalities of Russian passenger car transit traffic via Finland by taking into account both sea and road transport. The algorithm estimates the ship-originated emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂), nitrogen oxides (NO_x), sulphur oxides (SO_x), particulates (PM) and the externalities for each year from 2007 to 2015. The total NOx emissions in the Gulf of Finland from the six ship types were almost 75.7 kilotons (Table 5.2) in 2007. The ship types are: passenger (including cruisers and ROPAX vessels), tanker, general cargo, Ro-Ro, container and bulk vessels. Due to the increase of traffic, the estimation for NO_x emissions for 2015 is 112 kilotons. The NO_x emission estimation for the whole Baltic Sea shipping is 370 kilotons in 2006 (Stipa & al, 2007). The total marginal social costs due to ship-originated CO₂, NO_x, SO_x and PM emissions in the GOF were calculated to almost 175 million Euros in 2007. The costs will increase to nearly 214 million Euros in 2015 due to the traffic growth. The major part of the externalities is due to CO₂ emissions. If we neglect the CO2 emissions by extracting the CO₂ externalities from the results, we get the total externalities of 57 million Euros in 2007. After eight years (2015), the externalities would be 28 % lower, 41 million Euros (Table 8.1). This is the result of the sulphur emissions reducing regulation of marine fuels. The majority of the new car transit goes through Finland to Russia due to the lack of port capacity in Russia. The amount of cars was 339 620 vehicles (Statistics of Finnish Customs 2008) in 2005. The externalities are calculated for the transportation of passenger vehicles as follows: by ship to a Finnish port and, after that, by trucks to the Russian border checkpoint. The externalities are between 2 – 3 million Euros (year 2000 cost level) for each route. The ports included in the calculations are Hamina, Hanko, Kotka and Turku. With the Euro-3 standard trucks, the port of Hanko would be the best choice to transport the vehicles. This is because of lower emissions by new trucks and the saved transport distance of a ship. If the trucks are more polluting Euro 1 level trucks, the port of Kotka would be the best choice. This indicates that the truck emissions have a considerable effect on the externalities and that the transportation of light cargo, such as passenger cars by ship, produces considerably high emission externalities. The emission externalities approach offers a new insight for valuing the multiple traffic modes. However, the calculation of the marginal social costs based on the air emission externalities should not be regarded as a ready-made calculation system. The system is clearly in the need of some improvement but it can already be considered as a potential tool for political decision making.

Modelling nitrogen and phosphorus loads in a Mediterranean river catchment (La Tordera, NE Spain)

Human activities have resulted in increased nutrient levels in many rivers all over Europe. Sustainable management of river basins demands an assessment of the causes and consequences of human alteration of nutrient flows, together with an evaluation of management options. In the context of an integrated and interdisciplinary environmental assessment (IEA) of nutrient flows, we present and discuss the application of the nutrient emission model MONERIS (MOdelling Nutrient Emissions into River Systems) to the Catalan river basin, La Tordera (north-east Spain), for the period 1996–2002. After a successful calibration and verification process (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies E=0.85 for phosphorus and E=0.86 for nitrogen), the application of the model MONERIS proved to be useful in estimating nutrient loads. Crucial for model calibration, in-stream retention was estimated to be about 50 % of nutrient emissions on an annual basis. Through this process, we identified the importance of point sources for phosphorus emissions (about 94% for 1996–2002), and diffuse sources, especially inputs via groundwater, for nitrogen emissions (about 31% for 1996–2002). Despite hurdles related to model structure, observed loads, and input data encountered during the modelling process, MONERIS provided a good representation of the major interannual and spatial patterns in nutrient emissions. An analysis of the model uncertainty and sensitivity to input data indicates that the model MONERIS, even in data-starved Mediterranean catchments, may be profitably used by water managers for evaluating quantitative nutrient emission scenarios for the purpose of managing river basins. As an example of scenario modelling, an analysis of the changes in nutrient emissions through two different future scenarios allowed the identification of a set of relevant measures to reduce nutrient loads.

Sähköä ja lämpöä tuottavien voimalaitosten kannattavuusanalyysin kehittäminen

Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli laskea voimalaitoskannattavuudet vuosilta 2007–2009 kohdeyrityksen biovoimalaitokselle sekä kombivoimalaitokselle. Lisäksi laskettiin kohdeyrityksen uuden hyötyvoimalaitoksen käyttöönottovuoden 2009 kannattavuus sekä odotetun käyttöasteen kannattavuus. Tavoitteena oli muodostaa tuotantolaitoskohtaiset tuotekannattavuudet vuodelta 2009 Kotkan Energia Oy:ssä sekä muodostaa kirjatut jakoperusteet kannattavuuksien laskentaa varten ja analysoida saatuja kannattavuuksia. Tutkimusmetodologiana on käytetty soveltavaa tutkimusotetta. Kannattavuusanalyysin kehittäminen vaatii yrityksen kustannusten, tuottojen ja toiminnan sekä toimialan luonteen ymmärtämistä. Haasteena tutkimuksessa oli sähkön, lämmön ja höyryn valmistuksen periaatteiden omaksuminen, joka on kustannusten ja tuottojen oikean kohdistamisen perusta. Tutkimuksen tuloksena todettiin, että kombivoimalaitos on tuotantolaitoksista kannattamattomin. Kohdeyrityksen kannattavuutta voitaisiin parantaa investoimalla kombivoimalaitoksen tilalle halvempaa polttoainetta käyttävä tuotantolaitos. Tuotteista kannattavimmaksi todettiin kaukolämpö. Tutkimuksen tuloksina saatuja kannattavuuksia voidaan hyödyntää Kotkan Energian päätöksenteossa ja niitä hyödyntämällä pystytään kohdeyritykselle laskemaan nopeasti tarpeellisia tulevaisuudenskenaarioita. Kannattavuuslaskelmien tuloksien analyysin jatkoksi pohdittiin Kotkan Energialle jatkotutkimusehdotelmia.

Incubation period of Hemileia vastatrix in coffee plants in Brazil simulated under climate change

Risk analysis of climate change on plant diseases has great importance for agriculture since it allows the evaluation of management strategies to minimize future damages. This work aimed to simulate future scenarios of coffee rust (Hemileia vastatrix) epidemics by elaborating geographic distribution maps using a model that estimates the pathogen incubation period and the output from three General Circulation Models (CSIRO-Mk3.0, INM-CM3.0, and MIROC3.2.medres). The climatological normal from 1961-1990 was compared with that of the decades 2020s, 2050s and 2080s using scenarios A2 and B1 from the IPCC. Maps were prepared with a spatial resolution of 0.5 × 0.5 degrees of latitude and longitude for ten producing states in Brazil. The climate variables used were maximum and minimum monthly temperatures. The maps obtained in scenario A2 showed a tendency towards a reduction in the incubation period when future scenarios are compared with the climatological normal from 1961-1990. A reduction in the period was also observed in scenario B1, although smaller than that in scenario A2.

An analysis of the risk of cocoa moniliasis occurrence in Brazil as the result of climate change

The aim of this study was to evaluate the potential risk of moniliasis occurrence and the impacts of climate change on this disease in the coming decades, should this pathogen be introduced in Brazil. To this end, climate favorability maps were devised for the occurrence of moniliasis, both for the present and future time. The future scenarios (A2 and B2) focused on the decades of 2020, 2050 and 2080. These scenarios were obtained from six global climate models (GCMs) made available by the third assessment report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Currently, there are large areas with favorable climate conditions for moniliasis in Brazil, especially in regions at high risk of introduction of that pathogen. Considering the global warming scenarios provided by the IPCC, the potential risk of moniliasis occurrence in Brazil will be reduced. This decrease is predicted for both future scenarios, but will occur more sharply in scenario A2. However, there will still be areas with favorable climate conditions for the development of the disease, particularly in Brazil's main producing regions. Moreover, pathogen and host alike may undergo alterations due to climate change, which will affect the extent of their impacts on this pathosystem.

Potential impact of the global climate changes on the spatial distribution of areas of risk for the occurrence of eucalyptus rust in Brazil

Rust, caused by Puccinia psidii, is one of the most important diseases affecting eucalyptus in Brazil. This pathogen causes disease in mini-clonal garden and in young plants in the field, especially in leaves and juvenile shoots. Favorable climate conditions for infection by this pathogen in eucalyptus include temperature between 18 and 25 ºC, together with at least 6-hour leaf wetness periods, for 5 to 7 consecutive days. Considering the interaction between the environment and the pathogen, this study aimed to evaluate the potential impact of global climate changes on the spatial distribution of areas of risk for the occurrence of eucalyptus rust in Brazil. Thus, monthly maps of the areas of risk for the occurrence of this disease were elaborated, considering the current climate conditions, based on a historic series between 1961 and 1990, and the future scenarios A2 and B2, predicted by IPCC. The climate conditions were classified into three categories, according to the potential risk for the disease occurrence, considering temperature (T) and air relative humidity (RH): i) high risk (18 < T < 25 ºC and RH > 90%); ii) medium risk (18 < T < 25 ºC and RH < 90%; T< 18 or T > 25 ºC and RH > 90%); and iii) low risk (T < 18 or T > 25 ºC and RH < 90%). Data about the future climate scenarios were supplied by GCM Change Fields. In this study, the simulation model Hadley Centers for Climate Prediction and Research (HadCm3) was adopted, using the software Idrisi 32. The obtained results led to the conclusion that there will be a reduction in the area favorable to eucalyptus rust occurrence, and such a reduction will be gradual for the decades of 2020, 2050 and 2080 but more marked in scenario A2 than in B2. However, it is important to point out that extensive areas will still be favorable to the disease development, especially in the coldest months of the year, i.e., June and July. Therefore, the zoning of areas and periods of higher occurrence risk, considering the global climate changes, becomes important knowledge for the elaboration of predicting models and an alert for the integrated management of this disease.

Military crisis management in the next decade (2020-2030) : inducing consent or relying on compliance?

The most outstanding conceptual challenge of modern crisis management is the principle of consent. It is not a problem only at the operational level - it challenges the entire decision-making structures of crisis management operations. In post-cold war times and especially in the 21st century, there has been a transition from peacekeeping with limited size and scope towards large and complex peace operations. This shift has presented peace operations with a dilemma. How to balance between maintaining consent for peace operations, whilst being able to use military force to coerce those attempting to wreck peace processes? To address such a dilemma, this research aims to promote understanding, on what can be achieved by military crisis management operations (peace support operations) in the next decade. The research concentrates on the focal research question: Should military components induce consent or rely on the compliance of conflicting parties in crisis management operations of the next decade (2020 – 2030)? The focus is on military – political strategic level considerations, and especially on the time before political decisions to commit to a crisis management operation. This study does not focus on which actor or organisation should intervene. The framework of this thesis derives from the so called ‘peacebuilding space’, the scope of peace operations and spoiler theory. Feasibility of both peace enforcement and peacekeeping in countering future risk conditions are analysed in this framework. This future-orientated qualitative research uses the Delphi-method with a panel of national and international experts. Citation analysis supports identification of relevant reference material, which consists of contemporary literature, the Delphi-questionnaires and interviews. The research process followed three main stages. In the first stage, plausible future scenarios and risk conditions were identified with the Delphi-panel. In the second stage, operating environments for peace support operations were described and consequent hypotheses formulated. In the third stage, these hypotheses were tested on the Delphi-panel. The Delphi-panel is sufficiently wide and diverse to produce plausible yet different insights. The research design utilised specifically military crisis management and peace operations theories. This produced various and relevant normative considerations. Therefore, one may argue that this research; which is based on accepted contemporary theory, hypotheses derived thereof and utilising an expert panel, contributes to the realm of peace support operations. This research finds that some degree of peace enforcement will be feasible and necessary in at least the following risk conditions: failed governance; potential spillover of ethnic, religious, ideological conflict; vulnerability of strategic chokepoints and infrastructures in ungoverned spaces; as well as in territorial and extra-territorial border disputes. In addition, some form of peace enforcement is probably necessary in risk conditions pertaining to: extremism of marginalised groups; potential disputes over previously uninhabited and resource-rich territories; and interstate rivalry. Furthermore, this research finds that peacekeeping measures will be feasible and necessary in at least risk conditions pertaining to: potential spillover of ethnic, religious, ideological conflict; uncontrolled migration; consequences from environmental catastrophes or changes; territorial and extra-territorial border disputes; and potential disputes over previously uninhabited and resource-rich territories. These findings are all subject to both generic and case specific preconditions that must exist for a peace support operation. Some deductions could be derived from the research findings. Although some risk conditions may appear illogical, understanding the underlying logic of a conflict is fundamental to understanding transition in crisis management. Practitioners of crisis management should possess cognizance of such transition. They must understand how transition should occur from threat to safety, from conflict to stability – and so forth. Understanding transition is imperative for managing the dynamic evolution of preconditions, which begins at the outset of a peace support operation. Furthermore, it is pertinent that spoilers are defined from a peace process point of view. If spoilers are defined otherwise, it changes the nature of an operation towards war, where the logic is breaking the will of an enemy - and surrender. In peace support operations, the logic is different: actions towards spoilers are intended to cause transition towards consent - not defeat. Notwithstanding future developments, history continues to provide strategic education. However, the distinction is that the risk conditions occur in novel futures. Hence, lessons learned from the past should be fitted to the case at hand. This research shows compelling evidence that swaying between intervention optimism and pessimism is not substantiated. Both peace enforcement and peacekeeping are sine qua non for successful military crisis management in the next decade.

Oil Transportation in the Gulf of Finland in 2020 and 2030

This study is part of the Minimizing risks of maritime oil transport by holistic safety strategies (MIMIC) project. The purpose of this study is to provide a current state analysis of oil transportation volumes in the Baltic Sea and to create scenarios for oil transportation in the Gulf of Finland for the years 2020 and 2030. Future scenarios and information about oil transportation will be utilized in the modelling of oil transportation risks, which will be carried out as part of the MIMIC project. Approximately 290 million tons of oil and oil products were transported in the Baltic Sea in 2009, of which 55% (160 million tons) via the Gulf of Finland. Oil transportation volumes in the Gulf of Finland have increased from 40 million to almost 160 million tonnes over the last ten years. In Russia and Estonia, oil transportation mainly consists of export transports of the Russian oil industry. In Finnish ports in the Gulf of Finland, the majority of oil traffic is concentrated to the port of Sköldvik, while the remainder mainly consists of different oil products for domestic use. Transit transports to/from Russia make up small volumes of oil transportation. The largest oil ports in the Gulf of Finland are Primorsk, Tallinn, St. Petersburg and Sköldvik. The basis for the scenarios for the years 2020 and 2030 is formed by national energy strategies, the EU`s climate and energy strategies as well other energy and transportation forecasts for the years 2020 and 2030. Three alternative scenarios were produced for both 2020 and 2030. The oil volumes are based on the expert estimates of nine specialists. The specialists gave three volumes for each scenario: the expected oil transport volumes, and the minimum and maximum volumes. Variations in the volumes between the scenarios are not large, but each scenario tends to have rather a large difference between the figures for minimum and maximum volumes. This variation between the minimum and maximum volumes ranges around 30 to 40 million tonnes depending on the scenario. On the basis of this study, no a dramatic increase in oil transportation volumes in the Gulf of Finland is to be expected. Most of the scenarios only forecasted a moderate growth in maritime oil transportation compared to the current levels. The effects of the European energy policy favouring renewable energy sources can be seen in the 2030 scenarios, in which the transported oil volumes are smaller than in the 2020 scenarios. In the Slow development 2020 scenario, oil transport volumes for 2020 are expected to be 170.6 Mt (million tonnes), in the Average development 2020 187.1 Mt and in the Strong development 2020 201.5 Mt. The corresponding oil volumes for the 2030 scenarios were 165 Mt for the Stagnating development 2030 scenario, 177.5 Mt for the Towards a greener society 2030 scenario and 169.5 Mt in the Decarbonising society 2030 scenario.

THE ROLE OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY IN CREATING SUSTAINABILITY VALUE FOR FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS IN 2020 : a scenario planning approach

The growing importance of global sustainability issues has been causing many changes to the financial services industry. Facts such as climate change, social development and the financial crisis in 2008 have been making banks reconsider the manner that they consider environmental, social and economic factors in their decision-making process. At the same time, information technology (IT) has been transforming the financial service industry and its fast development has casted doubts on the way it should be managed within an organization. This current changing environment brings a number of uncertainties to the future that cannot be addressed using traditional forecasting techniques. This research investigates how IT can bring value to sustainability in the financial service industry in 2020. Through the use of a scenario planning technique, we analyzed how trends in the current environment (considering the relation between sustainability, financial institutions an IT) can lead to four different future scenarios. Then, we discussed how IT can improve a bank’s sustainability performance, considering the limitations of each scenario.

Sähköajoneuvojen vaikutukset sähköverkkoon

Tässä kandidaatintyössä tarkastellaan sähköajoneuvojen yleistymisen vaikutuksia Suomen sähköverkkoihin. Työssä käsitellään myös sähköajoneuvojen, sekä hybridi- että täyssähköajoneuvon, toimintaperiaate, akkuteknologiaa ja latausvaihtoehtoja, sekä mahdollisia muita vaihtoehtoja nykyiselle polttonesteajoneuvokannalle. Kirjallisuustutkimuksessa käydään läpi myös mahdolliset sähköajoneuvojen yleistymisskenaariot. Tutkimuksessa käydään läpi yleistymisen vaikutukset sähkön siirtoverkkoon, keskijänniteverkkoon, pienjänniteverkkoon sekä sähköntuotantoon.

Forest cover and its change in Unguja Island, Zanzibar

Tropical forests are sources of many ecosystem services, but these forests are vanishing rapidly. The situation is severe in Sub-Saharan Africa and especially in Tanzania. The causes of change are multidimensional and strongly interdependent, and only understanding them comprehensively helps to change the ongoing unsustainable trends of forest decline. Ongoing forest changes, their spatiality and connection to humans and environment can be studied with the methods of Land Change Science. The knowledge produced with these methods helps to make arguments about the actors, actions and causes that are behind the forest decline. In this study of Unguja Island in Zanzibar the focus is in the current forest cover and its changes between 1996 and 2009. The cover and changes are measured with often used remote sensing methods of automated land cover classification and post-classification comparison from medium resolution satellite images. Kernel Density Estimation is used to determine the clusters of change, sub-area –analysis provides information about the differences between regions, while distance and regression analyses connect changes to environmental factors. These analyses do not only explain the happened changes, but also allow building quantitative and spatial future scenarios. Similar study has not been made for Unguja and therefore it provides new information, which is beneficial for the whole society. The results show that 572 km2 of Unguja is still forested, but 0,82–1,19% of these forests are disappearing annually. Besides deforestation also vertical degradation and spatial changes are significant problems. Deforestation is most severe in the communal indigenous forests, but also agroforests are decreasing. Spatially deforestation concentrates to the areas close to the coastline, population and Zanzibar Town. Biophysical factors on the other hand do not seem to influence the ongoing deforestation process. If the current trend continues there should be approximately 485 km2 of forests remaining in 2025. Solutions to these deforestation problems should be looked from sustainable land use management, surveying and protection of the forests in risk areas and spatially targeted self-sustainable tree planting schemes.

Digitalisaatio ja kuljettajakoulutusyrittäjyys

Digitalisaation myötä myös liikenteestä tulee yhä älykkäämpää. Valtiovalta purkaa sääntelyä ja sallii digitaalisten menetelmien laajempaa käyttöä. Kuljettajakoulutusta pidetään toimialana kuitenkin hyvin konventionaalisena. Diplomityön tarkoituksena on tutkia, mitä digitalisaatio tarkoittaa kuljettajakoulutusyritysten liiketoimintamalleille. Empiiristä aineistoa saatiin teemahaastatteluin ja aineistoa analysoitiin laadullisin menetelmin. Työssä esitellään alan vahvuudet, heikkoudet, mahdollisuudet ja uhat sekä tulevaisuuden skenaariot. Digitalisaatio aiheuttaa merkittäviä muutoksia kuljettajakoulutusalan yrityksille. Auto ei ole enää entisenlainen statussymboli eikä rahan käytön kohde. Digitaaliajan ihmiset eivät aina kaipaa fyysistä liikkumista, kun vielä kivijalkakaupatkin vähenevät. Ajokorttia ei useinkaan koeta välttämättömäksi aikuistumisriitiksi. Uusi teknologia voi kuitenkin radikaalisti parantaa alan yritysten suorituskykyä: palvelut muuttuvat ajasta ja paikasta riippumattomiksi sekä skaalautuviksi. Kuluttajien kannalta digitalisaatio puolestaan parantaa asiakaslähtöisyyttä. Alan liiketoimintamallien kehittymiseen vaikuttaa neljä taustavoimaa: digitalisaatio, perinteet, sääntely ja yrittäjyys. Liiketoimintamalli sisältää opetukselliset ydintoiminnot, sisäiset prosessit, liiketoiminnan tukitoiminnot ja arvoehdotuksen asiakkaalle. Liiketoiminnan kehittäminen vastaamaan digitalisaation vaatimuksia edellyttää proaktiivista innovaatiostrategiaa. Siihen perustuvien innovaatiomenetelmien avulla yritys voi kehittää liiketoimintamalliaan digitalisaation tarjoamien ja tiedon asymmetriasta kumpuavien mahdollisuuksien hyödyntämiseksi.

Rechenmodelle und Informationssysteme zur Integration großer Windleistungen in die elektrische Energieversorgung

In dieser Arbeit werden verschiedene Computermodelle, Rechenverfahren und Methoden zur Unterstützung bei der Integration großer Windleistungen in die elektrische Energieversorgung entwickelt. Das Rechenmodell zur Simulation der zeitgleich eingespeisten Windenergie erzeugt Summenganglinien von beliebig zusammengestellten Gruppen von Windenergieanlagen, basierend auf gemessenen Wind- und Leistungsdaten der nahen Vergangenheit. Dieses Modell liefert wichtige Basisdaten für die Analyse der Windenergieeinspeisung auch für zukünftige Szenarien. Für die Untersuchung der Auswirkungen von Windenergieeinspeisungen großräumiger Anlagenverbünde im Gigawattbereich werden verschiedene statistische Analysen und anschauliche Darstellungen erarbeitet. Das im Rahmen dieser Arbeit entwickelte Modell zur Berechnung der aktuell eingespeisten Windenergie aus online gemessenen Leistungsdaten repräsentativer Windparks liefert wertvolle Informationen für die Leistungs- und Frequenzregelung der Netzbetreiber. Die zugehörigen Verfahren zur Ermittlung der repräsentativen Standorte und zur Überprüfung der Repräsentativität bilden die Grundlage für eine genaue Abbildung der Windenergieeinspeisung für größere Versorgungsgebiete, basierend auf nur wenigen Leistungsmessungen an Windparks. Ein weiteres wertvolles Werkzeug für die optimale Einbindung der Windenergie in die elektrische Energieversorgung bilden die Prognosemodelle, die die kurz- bis mittelfristig zu erwartende Windenergieeinspeisung ermitteln. In dieser Arbeit werden, aufbauend auf vorangegangenen Forschungsarbeiten, zwei, auf Künstlich Neuronalen Netzen basierende Modelle vorgestellt, die den zeitlichen Verlauf der zu erwarten Windenergie für Netzregionen und Regelzonen mit Hilfe von gemessenen Leistungsdaten oder prognostizierten meteorologischen Parametern zur Verfügung stellen. Die softwaretechnische Zusammenfassung des Modells zur Berechnung der aktuell eingespeisten Windenergie und der Modelle für die Kurzzeit- und Folgetagsprognose bietet eine attraktive Komplettlösung für die Einbindung der Windenergie in die Leitwarten der Netzbetreiber. Die dabei entwickelten Schnittstellen und die modulare Struktur des Programms ermöglichen eine einfache und schnelle Implementierung in beliebige Systemumgebungen. Basierend auf der Leistungsfähigkeit der Online- und Prognosemodelle werden Betriebsführungsstrategien für zu Clustern im Gigawattbereich zusammengefasste Windparks behandelt, die eine nach ökologischen und betriebswirtschaftlichen Gesichtspunkten sowie nach Aspekten der Versorgungssicherheit optimale Einbindung der geplanten Offshore-Windparks ermöglichen sollen.