Extinction risk in cloud forest fragments under climate change and habitat loss

Aim: To quantify the consequences of major threats to biodiversity, such as climate and land-use change, it is important to use explicit measures of species persistence, such as extinction risk. The extinction risk of metapopulations can be approximated through simple models, providing a regional snapshot of the extinction probability of a species. We evaluated the extinction risk of three species under different climate change scenarios in three different regions of the Mexican cloud forest, a highly fragmented habitat that is particularly vulnerable to climate change. Location: Cloud forests in Mexico. Methods: Using Maxent, we estimated the potential distribution of cloud forest for three different time horizons (2030, 2050 and 2080) and their overlap with protected areas. Then, we calculated the extinction risk of three contrasting vertebrate species for two scenarios: (1) climate change only (all suitable areas of cloud forest through time) and (2) climate and land-use change (only suitable areas within a currently protected area), using an explicit patch-occupancy approximation model and calculating the joint probability of all populations becoming extinct when the number of remaining patches was less than five. Results: Our results show that the extent of environmentally suitable areas for cloud forest in Mexico will sharply decline in the next 70 years. We discovered that if all habitat outside protected areas is transformed, then only species with small area requirements are likely to persist. With habitat loss through climate change only, high dispersal rates are sufficient for persistence, but this requires protection of all remaining cloud forest areas. Main conclusions: Even if high dispersal rates mitigate the extinction risk of species due to climate change, the synergistic impacts of changing climate and land use further threaten the persistence of species with higher area requirements. Our approach for assessing the impacts of threats on biodiversity is particularly useful when there is little time or data for detailed population viability analyses. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A new constraint handling method for wind farm layout optimization with lands owned by different owners

For wind farm optimizations with lands belonging to different owners, the traditional penalty method is highly dependent on the type of wind farm land division. The application of the traditional method can be cumbersome if the divisions are complex. To overcome this disadvantage, a new method is proposed in this paper for the first time. Unlike the penalty method which requires the addition of penalizing term when evaluating the fitness function, it is achieved through repairing the infeasible solutions before fitness evaluation. To assess the effectiveness of the proposed method on the optimization of wind farm, the optimizing results of different methods are compared for three different types of wind farm division. Different wind scenarios are also incorporated during optimization which includes (i) constant wind speed and wind direction; (ii) various wind speed and wind direction, and; (iii) the more realisticWeibull distribution. Results show that the performance of the new method varies for different land plots in the tested cases. Nevertheless, it is found that optimum or at least close to optimum results can be obtained with sequential land plot study using the new method for all cases. It is concluded that satisfactory results can be achieved using the proposed method. In addition, it has the advantage of flexibility in managing the wind farm design, which not only frees users to define the penalty parameter but without limitations on the wind farm division.

Adoption of alternative habitats by a threatened, "obligate" forest-dwelling bat in a fragmented landscape

While they are among the most ecologically important animals within forest ecosystems, little is known about how bats respond to habitat loss and fragmentation. The threatened lesser short-tailed bat (Mystacina tuberculata), considered to be an obligate deep-forest species, is one of only 2 extant land mammals endemic to New Zealand; it plays a number of important roles within native forests, including pollination and seed dispersal, and rarely occurs in modified forests. We used radiotelemetry to study the movements, roosting behavior, and habitat use of M. tuberculata within a fragmented landscape comprised of 3 main habitat types: open space (harvested forest and pastoral land), native forests, and exotic pine plantations. We found that the bats had smaller home-range areas and travelled shorter nightly distances than populations investigated previously from contiguous native forest. Furthermore, M. tuberculata occupied all 3 habitat types, with native forest being preferred overall. However, individual variation in habitat selection was high, with some bats preferring exotic plantation and open space over native forest. Roosting patterns were similar to those previously observed in contiguous forest; individual bats often switched between communal and solitary roosts. Our findings indicate that M. tuberculata exhibit some degree of behavioral plasticity that allows them to adapt to different landscape mosaics and exploit alternative habitats. To our knowledge, this is the first such documentation of plasticity in habitat use for a bat species believed to be an obligate forest-dweller.

Can’t see the trees for the forest? Why IS-ServQual items matter

Despite longstanding concern with the dimensionality of the service quality construct as measured by ServQual and IS-ServQual instruments, variations on the IS-ServQual instrument have been enduringly prominent in both academic research and practice in the field of IS. We explain the continuing popularity of the instrument based on the salience of the item set for predicting overall customer satisfaction, suggesting that the preoccupation with the dimensions has been a distraction. The implicit mutual exclusivity of the items suggests a more appropriate conceptualization of IS-ServQual as a formative index. This conceptualization resolves the paradox in IS-ServQual research, that of how an instrument with such well-known and well-documented weaknesses continue to be very influential and widely used by academics and practitioners. A formative conceptualization acknowledges and addresses the criticisms of IS-ServQual, while simultaneously explaining its enduring salience by focusing on the items rather than the “dimensions.” By employing an opportunistic sample and adopting the most recent IS-ServQual instrument published in a leading IS journal (virtually, any valid IS- ServQual sample in combination with a previously tested instrument variant would suffice for study purposes), we demonstrate that when re-specified as both first-order and second-order formatives, IS-ServQual has good model quality metrics and high predictive power on customer satisfaction. We conclude that this formative specification has higher practical use and is more defensible theoretically.

Interaction between ERAP1 and HLA-B27 in ankylosing spondylitis implicates peptide handling in the mechanism for HLA-B27 in disease susceptibility

Ankylosing spondylitis is a common form of inflammatory arthritis predominantly affecting the spine and pelvis that occurs in approximately 5 out of 1,000 adults of European descent. Here we report the identification of three variants in the RUNX3, LTBR-TNFRSF1A and IL12B regions convincingly associated with ankylosing spondylitis (P < 5 × 10-8 in the combined discovery and replication datasets) and a further four loci at PTGER4, TBKBP1, ANTXR2 and CARD9 that show strong association across all our datasets (P < 5 × 10-6 overall, with support in each of the three datasets studied). We also show that polymorphisms of ERAP1, which encodes an endoplasmic reticulum aminopeptidase involved in peptide trimming before HLA class I presentation, only affect ankylosing spondylitis risk in HLA-B27-positive individuals. These findings provide strong evidence that HLA-B27 operates in ankylosing spondylitis through a mechanism involving aberrant processing of antigenic peptides.

Space and time efficiency of the forest-of-quadtrees representation

A forest of quadtrees is a refinement of a quadtree data structure that is used to represent planar regions. A forest of quadtrees provides space savings over regular quadtrees by concentrating vital information. The paper presents some of the properties of a forest of quadtrees and studies the storage requirements for the case in which a single 2m × 2m region is equally likely to occur in any position within a 2n × 2n image. Space and time efficiency are investigated for the forest-of-quadtrees representation as compared with the quadtree representation for various cases.

Tissue culture of forest trees: Clonal multiplication of Eucalyptus grandis L

Axillary shoot proliferation was obtained using explants of Eucalyptus grandis L. juvenile and mature stages on a defined medium. Murashige and Skoog medium (MS) supplemented with benzyladenine (BA), naphthalene acetic acid (NAA) and additional thiamine. Excised shoots were induced to root on a sequence of three media: (1) White's medium containing indoleacetic acid (IAA), NAA and indole butyric acid; (IBA), (2) half-strength MS medium with charcoal and (3) half-strength MS liquid medium. The two types of explants differed in rooting response, with juvenile-derived shoots giving 60% rooting and adult-derived ones only 35%. Thus, the factors limiting cloning of selected trees in vitro are determined to be those controlling rooting of shoots in E. grandis.

Handling of Two Tropical Australian Sharks to Improve Quality and to Identify the Cause of Tough Texture

Sharks caught in tropical Australian waters occasionally exhibit tough texture. Two species of Carcharinid shark, originally known as the sorrah shark (Carcharinus sorrah) and the black spot shark (Carcharinus tilstoni), compose the majority of the catch. Experiments were conducted to identify the cause of tough texture and to improve the overall quality of the catch. The possibility that a cold shock reaction may occur was investigated by observing the contraction of fillets under a range of temperature conditions before freezing. The effect of on-board handling practices were evaluated using frozen shark fillets, which had been stored prior to freezing in refrigerated seawater at different rigor stages, temperatures and times as trunks. Fillets were analyzed for nucleotides, lactate, thaw pH, sarcomere length and raw and cooked shear force values. The existence of thaw rigor was also investigated. There was little difference in the texture between the individual strips of a fillet exposed to different temperatures but there were significant differences between individual sharks. A cold shock reaction could not be demonstrated in these species. The main influences on texture were of biological origin. The species, sex and size were found to have significant links with texture of fillets. The quality of the fillets deteriorated quicker during the warmer season and were at their worst if the trunks were kept on deck till post-rigor or held in 15 degree C refrigerated seawater before freezing

Nocturnal Perching of Scarabaeine Dung Beetles (Coleoptera, Scarabaeidae) in an Australian Tropical Rain Forest

Wongabel, a northeastern Queensland tropical, wet, evergreen forest, contains 22 species of Scarabaeinae dung beetles. Five of these species were observed to perch commonly on leaves at night. Length of the beetle and the height of its perch were recorded for each of 56 1 specimens. Unlike the New World tropical dung beetle perchers, no clear evidence was found that small species perched closer to the ground than larger species. The evidence gathered, at least for the four most common perchers, supports the hypothesis that perching is one type of foraging strategy. The similarities and differences between the Australian and New World perchers are discussed.

Bond graph toolbox for handling complex variable

Bond graph is an apt modelling tool for any system working across multiple energy domains. Power electronics system modelling is usually the study of the interplay of energy in the domains of electrical, mechanical, magnetic and thermal. The usefulness of bond graph modelling in power electronic field has been realised by researchers. Consequently in the last couple of decades, there has been a steadily increasing effort in developing simulation tools for bond graph modelling that are specially suited for power electronic study. For modelling rotating magnetic fields in electromagnetic machine models, a support for vector variables is essential. Unfortunately, all bond graph simulation tools presently provide support only for scalar variables. We propose an approach to provide complex variable and vector support to bond graph such that it will enable modelling of polyphase electromagnetic and spatial vector systems. We also introduced a rotary gyrator element and use it along with the switched junction for developing the complex/vector variable's toolbox. This approach is implemented by developing a complex S-function tool box in Simulink inside a MATLAB environment This choice has been made so as to synthesise the speed of S-function, the user friendliness of Simulink and the popularity of MATLAB.

Predicting survival of western rock lobsters Panulirus cygnus using discriminant analysis of hemolymph parameters taken immediately following simulated handling treatments

Instances of morbidity amongst rock lobsters (Panulirus cygnus) arriving at factories in Western Australia (WA) have been attributed to stress during post-harvest handling. This study used discriminant analysis to determine whether physiological correlates of stress following a period of simulated post-harvest handling had any validity as predictors of future rejection or morbidity of western rock lobsters. Groups of 230 western rock lobsters were stored for 6 h in five environments (submerged/flowing sea water, submerged/re-circulating sea water, humid air, flowing sea water spray, and re-circulated sea water spray). The experiment was conducted in late spring (ambient sea water 22°C), and repeated again in early autumn (ambient sea water 26°C). After 6 h treatment, each lobster was graded for acceptability for live export, numbered, and its hemolymph was sampled. The samples were analysed for a number of physiological and health status parameters. The lobsters were then stored for a week in tanks in the live lobster factory to record mortality. The mortality of lobsters in the factory was associated with earlier deviations in hemolymph parameters as they emerged from the storage treatments. Discriminant analysis (DA) of the hemolymph assays enabled the fate of 80-90% of the lobsters to be correctly categorised within each experiment. However, functions derived from one experiment were less accurate at predicting mortality when applied to the other experiments. One of the reasons for this was the higher mortality and the more severe patho-physiological changes observed in lobsters stored in humid air or sprays at the higher temperature. The analysis identified lactate accumulation during emersion and associated physiological and hemocyte-related effects as a major correlate of mortality. Reducing these deviations, for example by submerged transport, is expected to ensure high levels of survival. None of the indicators tested predicted mortality with total accuracy. The simplest and most accurate means of comparing emersed treatments was to count the mortality afterwards.

Developing African mahogany (Khaya senegalensis) germplasm and its management for a sustainable forest plantation industry in northern Australia: Progress and needs.

The demonstrated wide adaptability, substantial yield potential and proven timber quality of African mahogany (Khaya senegalensis) from plantings of the late 1960s and early 1970s in northern Australia have led to a resurgence of interest in this high-value species. New plantations or trials have been established in several regions since the early 1990s -in four regions in north Queensland, two in the Northern Territory and one in Western Australia. Overall, more than 1500 ha had been planted by early 2007, and the national annual planting from 2007-2008 as currently planned will exceed 2400 ha. Proceedings of two workshops have summarised information available on the species in northern Australia, and suggested research and development (R&D) needs and directions. After an unsustained first phase of domestication of K. senegalensis in the late 1960s to the early 1970s, a second phase began in northern Australia in 2001 focused on conservation and tree improvement that is expected to provide improved planting stock by 2010. Work on other aspects of domestication is also described in this paper: the current estate and plans for extension; site suitability, soils and nutrition; silviculture and management; productivity; pests and diseases; and log and wood properties of a sample of superior trees from two mature plantations of unselected material near Darwin. Some constraints on sustainable plantation development in all these fields are identified and R&D needs proposed. A sustained R&D effort will require a strategic coordinated approach, cooperative implementation and extra funding. Large gains in plantation profitability can be expected to flow from such inputs.

Runoff, sediment loss and water quality from forest roads in a southeast Queensland coastal plain Pinus plantation

Runoff and sediment loss from forest roads were monitored for a two-year period in a Pinus plantation in southeast Queensland. Two classes of road were investigated: a gravelled road, which is used as a primary daily haulage route for the logging area, and an ungravelled road, which provides the main access route for individual logging compartments and is intensively used as a haulage route only during the harvest of these areas (approximately every 30 years). Both roads were subjected to routine traffic loads and maintenance during the study. Surface runoff in response to natural rainfall was measured and samples taken for the determination of sediment and nutrient (total nitrogen, total phosphorus, dissolved organic carbon and total iron) loads from each road. Results revealed that the mean runoff coefficient (runoff depth/rainfall depth) was consistently higher from the gravelled road plot with 0.57, as compared to the ungravelled road with 0.38. Total sediment loss over the two-year period was greatest from the gravelled road plot at 5.7 t km−1 compared to the ungravelled road plot with 3.9 t km−1. Suspended solids contributed 86% of the total sediment loss from the gravelled road, and 72% from the ungravelled road over the two years. Nitrogen loads from the two roads were both relatively constant throughout the study, and averaged 5.2 and 2.9 kg km−1 from the gravelled and ungravelled road, respectively. Mean annual phosphorus loads were 0.6 kg km−1 from the gravelled road and 0.2 kg km−1 from the ungravelled road. Organic carbon and total iron loads increased in the second year of the study, which was a much wetter year, and are thought to reflect the breakdown of organic matter in roadside drains and increased sediment generation, respectively. When road and drain maintenance (grading) was performed runoff and sediment loss were increased from both road types. Additionally, the breakdown of the gravel road base due to high traffic intensity during wet conditions resulted in the formation of deep (10 cm) ruts which increased erosion. The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP):Road model was used to compare predicted to observed runoff and sediment loss from the two road classes investigated. For individual rainfall events, WEPP:Road predicted output showed strong agreement with observed values of runoff and sediment loss. WEPP:Road predictions for annual sediment loss from the entire forestry road network in the study area also showed reasonable agreement with the extrapolated observed values.

ESTIMATION OF EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IN AN EXPERIMENTAL WATERSHED IN A DECIDUOUS FOREST OF SOUTH INDIA

Forested areas play a dominant role in the global hydrological cycle. Evapotranspiration is a dominant component most of the time catching up with the rainfall. Though there are sophisticated methods which are available for its estimation, a simple reliable tool is needed so that a good budgeting could be made. Studies have established that evapotranspiration in forested areas is much higher than in agricultural areas. Latitude, type of forests, climate and geological characteristics also add to the complexity of its estimation. Few studies have compared different methods of evapotranspiration on forested watersheds in semi arid tropical forests. In this paper a comparative study of different methods of estimation of evapotranspiration is made with reference to the actual measurements made using all parameter climatological station data of a small deciduous forested watershed of Mulehole (area of 4.5 km2 ), South India. Potential evapotranspiration (ETo) was calculated using ten physically based and empirical methods. Actual evapotranspiration (AET) has been calculated through computation of water balance through SWAT model. The Penman-Montieth method has been used as a benchmark to compare the estimates arrived at using various methods. The AET calculated shows good agreement with the curve for evapotranspiration for forests worldwide. Error estimates have been made with respect to Penman-Montieth method. This study could give an idea of the errors involved whenever methods with limited data are used and also show the use indirect methods in estimation of Evapotranspiration which is more suitable for regional scale studies.

Achievements in forest tree improvement in Australia and New Zealand 6: Genetic improvement and conservation of Araucaria cunninghamii in Queensland

Araucaria cunninghamii (hoop pine) typically occurs as an emergent tree over subtropical and tropical rainforests, in a discontinuous distribution that extends from West Irian Jaya at about 0°30'S, through the highlands of Indonesian New Guinea and Papua New Guinea, along the east coast of Australia from 11°39'S in Queensland to 30°35'S in northern New South Wales. Plantations established in Queensland since the 1920s now total about 44000 ha, and constitute the primary source for the continuing supply of hoop pine quality timber and pulpwood, with a sustainable harvest exceeding 440 000 m3 y-1. Establishment of these managed plantations allowed logging of all native forests of Araucaria species (hoop pine and bunya pine, A. bidwillii) on state-owned lands to cease in the late 1980s, and the preservation of large areas of araucarian forest types within a system of state-owned and managed reserves. The successful plantation program with this species has been strongly supported by genetic improvement activities since the late 1940s - through knowledge of provenance variation and reproductive biology, the provision of reliable sources of improved seed, and the capture of substantial genetic gains in traits of economic importance (for example growth, stem straightness, internode length and spiral grain). As such, hoop pine is one of the few tropical tree species that, for more than half a century, has been the subject of continuous genetic improvement. The history of commercialisation and genetic improvement of hoop pine provides an excellent example of the dual economic and conservation benefits that may be obtained in tropical tree species through the integration of gene conservation and genetic improvement with commercial plantation development. This paper outlines the natural distribution and reproductive biology of hoop pine, describes the major achievements of the genetic improvement program in Queensland over the past 50+ y, summarises current understanding of the genetic variation and control of key selection traits, and outlines the means by which genetic diversity in the species is being conserved.