Comparison of decision tree, support vector machines, and Bayesian network approaches for classification of falls in Parkinson’s disease

Being able to accurately predict the risk of falling is crucial in patients with Parkinson’s dis- ease (PD). This is due to the unfavorable effect of falls, which can lower the quality of life as well as directly impact on survival. Three methods considered for predicting falls are decision trees (DT), Bayesian networks (BN), and support vector machines (SVM). Data on a 1-year prospective study conducted at IHBI, Australia, for 51 people with PD are used. Data processing are conducted using rpart and e1071 packages in R for DT and SVM, con- secutively; and Bayes Server 5.5 for the BN. The results show that BN and SVM produce consistently higher accuracy over the 12 months evaluation time points (average sensitivity and specificity > 92%) than DT (average sensitivity 88%, average specificity 72%). DT is prone to imbalanced data so needs to adjust for the misclassification cost. However, DT provides a straightforward, interpretable result and thus is appealing for helping to identify important items related to falls and to generate fallers’ profiles.

Transmission of Japanese Encephalitis Virus from the Black Flying Fox, Pteropus alecto, to Culex annulirostris Mosquitoes, Despite the Absence of Detectable Viremia.

To determine the potential role of flying foxes in transmission cycles of Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) in Australia, we exposed Pteropus alecto (Megachiroptera: Pteropididae) to JEV via infected Culex annulirostris mosquitoes or inoculation. No flying foxes developed symptoms consistent with JEV infection. Anti-JEV IgG antibodies developed in 6/10 flying foxes exposed to infected Cx. annulirostris and in 5/5 inoculated flying foxes. Low-level viremia was detected by real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction in 1/5 inoculated flying foxes and this animal was able to infect recipient mosquitoes. Although viremia was not detected in any of the 10 flying foxes that were exposed to JEV by mosquito bite, two animals infected recipient mosquitoes. Likewise, an inoculated flying fox without detectable viremia infected recipient mosquitoes. Although infection rates in recipient mosquitoes were low, the high population densities in roosting camps, coupled with migratory behavior indicate that flying foxes could play a role in the dispersal of JEV.

The Hindenburg Zeppelin flying over the home of Chancellor Hindenburg; Hannover.

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Leopold Landsberger dressed in flying gear standing in front of a propeller airplane.

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Distance Relay Co-ordination Using Support Vector Machines in Power Transmission System

In this paper, a new approach to enhance the transmission system distance relay co-ordination is presented. The approach depends on the apparent impedance loci seen by the distance relay during all possible disturbances. In a distance relay, the impedance loci seen at the relay location is obtained by extensive transient stability studies. Support vector machines (SVMs), a class of patterns classifiers are used in discriminating zone settings (zone-1, zone-2 and zone-3) using the signals to be used by the relay. Studies on a sample 9-bus are presented for illustrating the proposed scheme.

Systemic toxoplasmosis in captive flying-foxes

Systemic toxoplasmosis caused by Toxoplasma gondii was diagnosed in two juvenile, captive flying-foxes (Pteropus conspicillatus and P. scapulatus), which died following respiratory distress. One animal displayed clinical signs suggestive of neurological disease. This is the first report of this disease in megachiropteran bats and adds to the list of differential diagnoses for both systemic and neurological disease in these animals. The role of captivity in the exposure and development of the disease is discussed.

Foraging Behaviour and Landscape Utilisation by the Endangered Golden-Crowned Flying Fox (Acerodon jubatus), The Philippines

Species of Old World fruit-bats (family Pteropodidae) have been identified as the natural hosts of a number of novel and highly pathogenic viruses threatening livestock and human health. We used GPS data loggers to record the nocturnal foraging movements of Acerodon jubatus, the Golden-crowned flying fox in the Philippines to better understand the landscape utilisation of this iconic species, with the dual objectives of pre-empting disease emergence and supporting conservation management. Data loggers were deployed on eight of 54 A. jubatus (two males and six females) captured near Subic Bay on the Philippine island of Luzon between 22 November and 2 December 2010. Bodyweight ranged from 730 g to 1002 g, translating to a weight burden of 3–4% of bodyweight. Six of the eight loggers yielded useful data over 2–10 days, showing variability in the nature and range of individual bat movements. The majority of foraging locations were in closed forest and most were remote from evident human activity. Forty-six discrete foraging locations and five previously unrecorded roost locations were identified. Our findings indicate that foraging is not a random event, with the majority of bats exhibiting repetitious foraging movements night-to-night, that apparently intact forest provides the primary foraging resource, and that known roost locations substantially underestimate the true number (and location) of roosts. Our initial findings support policy and decision-making across perspectives including landscape management, species conservation, and potentially disease emergence.

Recrudescent Infection Supports Hendra Virus Persistence in Australian Flying-Fox Populations

Zoonoses from wildlife threaten global public health. Hendra virus is one of several zoonotic viral diseases that have recently emerged from Pteropus species fruit-bats (flying-foxes). Most hypotheses regarding persistence of Hendra virus within flying-fox populations emphasize horizontal transmission within local populations (colonies) via urine and other secretions, and transmission among colonies via migration. As an alternative hypothesis, we explore the role of recrudescence in persistence of Hendra virus in flying-fox populations via computer simulation using a model that integrates published information on the ecology of flying-foxes, and the ecology and epidemiology of Hendra virus. Simulated infection patterns agree with infection patterns observed in the field and suggest that Hendra virus could be maintained in an isolated flying-fox population indefinitely via periodic recrudescence in a manner indistinguishable from maintenance via periodic immigration of infected individuals. Further, post-recrudescence pulses of infectious flying-foxes provide a plausible basis for the observed seasonal clustering of equine cases. Correct understanding of the infection dynamics of Hendra virus in flying-foxes is fundamental to effectively managing risk of infection in horses and humans. Given the lack of clear empirical evidence on how the virus is maintained within populations, the role of recrudescence merits increased attention.

Flying-Fox Species Density-A Spatial Risk Factor for Hendra Virus Infection in Horses in Eastern Australia

Hendra virus causes sporadic but typically fatal infection in horses and humans in eastern Australia. Fruit-bats of the genus Pteropus (commonly known as flying-foxes) are the natural host of the virus, and the putative source of infection in horses; infected horses are the source of human infection. Effective treatment is lacking in both horses and humans, and notwithstanding the recent availability of a vaccine for horses, exposure risk mitigation remains an important infection control strategy. This study sought to inform risk mitigation by identifying spatial and environmental risk factors for equine infection using multiple analytical approaches to investigate the relationship between plausible variables and reported Hendra virus infection in horses. Spatial autocorrelation (Global Moran’s I) showed significant clustering of equine cases at a distance of 40 km, a distance consistent with the foraging ‘footprint’ of a flying-fox roost, suggesting the latter as a biologically plausible basis for the clustering. Getis-Ord Gi* analysis identified multiple equine infection hot spots along the eastern Australia coast from far north Queensland to central New South Wales, with the largest extending for nearly 300 km from southern Queensland to northern New South Wales. Geographically weighted regression (GWR) showed the density of P. alecto and P. conspicillatus to have the strongest positive correlation with equine case locations, suggesting these species are more likely a source of infection of Hendra virus for horses than P. poliocephalus or P. scapulatus. The density of horses, climate variables and vegetation variables were not found to be a significant risk factors, but the residuals from the GWR suggest that additional unidentified risk factors exist at the property level. Further investigations and comparisons between case and control properties are needed to identify these local risk factors.

Health assessment of the Christmas Island flying fox (Pteropus melanotus natalis)

During July/August 2010, 28 Christmas Island flying foxes (Pteropus melanotus natalis) were captured and anesthetized for examination, sample collection, and release to determine the potential role of disease in recent population declines. Measurements and samples were taken for morphologic, hematologic, biochemical, and parasitologic analysis. These are the first blood reference ranges reported for this species. These data are being used to inform investigations into conservation status and population management strategies for the Christmas Island flying fox.

Measuring Physiological Stress in Australian Flying-Fox Populations

Flying-foxes (pteropid bats) are the natural host of Hendra virus, a recently emerged zoonotic virus responsible for mortality or morbidity in horses and humans in Australia since 1994. Previous studies have suggested physiological and ecological risk factors for infection in flying-foxes, including physiological stress. However, little work has been done measuring and interpreting stress hormones in flying-foxes. Over a 12-month period, we collected pooled urine samples from underneath roosting flying-foxes, and urine and blood samples from captured individuals. Urine and plasma samples were assayed for cortisol using a commercially available enzyme immunoassay. We demonstrated a typical post-capture stress response in flying-foxes, established urine specific gravity as an attractive alternative to creatinine to correct urine concentration, and established population-level urinary cortisol ranges (and geometric means) for the four Australian species: Pteropus alecto 0.5–305.1 ng/mL (20.1 ng/mL); Pteropus conspicillatus 0.3–370.9 ng/mL (18.9 ng/mL); Pteropus poliocephalus 0.3–311.3 ng/mL (10.1 ng/mL); Pteropus scapulatus 5.2–205.4 ng/mL (40.7 ng/mL). Geometric means differed significantly except for P. alecto and P. conspicillatus. Our approach is methodologically robust, and has application both as a research or clinical tool for flying-foxes, and for other free-living colonial wildlife species

Haematology and Plasma Biochemistry of Wild Black Flying-Foxes, (Pteropus alecto) in Queensland, Australia

This paper establishes reference ranges for hematologic and plasma biochemistry values in wild Black flying-foxes (Pteropus alecto) captured in South East Queensland, Australia. Values were found to be consistent with those of other Pteropus species. Four hundred and forty-seven animals were sampled over 12 months and significant differences were found between age, sex, reproductive and body condition cohorts in the sample population. Mean values for each cohort fell within the determined normal adult reference range, with the exception of elevated levels of alkaline phosphatase in juvenile animals. Hematologic and biochemistry parameters of injured animals showed little or no deviation from the normal reference values for minor injuries, while two animals with more severe injury or abscessation showed leucocytosis, anaemia, thrombocytosis, hyperglobulinemia and hypoalbuminemia.

Flying-foxes in the Australian urban environment - community attitudes and opinions

The urban presence of flying-foxes (pteropid bats) in eastern Australia has increased in the last 20 years, putatively reflecting broader landscape change. The influx of large numbers often precipitates community angst, typically stemming from concerns about loss of social amenity, economic loss or negative health impacts from recently emerged bat-mediated zoonotic diseases such as Hendra virus and Australian bat lyssavirus. Local authorities and state wildlife authorities are increasingly asked to approve the dispersal or modification of flying-fox roosts to address expressed concerns, yet the scale of this concern within the community, and the veracity of the basis for concern are often unclear. We conducted an on-line survey to capture community attitudes and opinions on flying-foxes in the urban environment to inform management policy and decision-making. Analysis focused on awareness, concerns, and management options, and primarily compared responses from communities where flying-fox management was and was not topical at the time of the survey. While a majority of respondents indicated a moderate to high level of knowledge of both flying-foxes and Hendra virus, a substantial minority mistakenly believed that flying-foxes pose a direct infection risk to humans, suggesting miscommunication or misinformation, and the need for additional risk communication strategies. Secondly, a minority of community members indicated they were directly impacted by urban roosts, most plausibly those living in close proximity to the roost, suggesting that targeted management options are warranted. Thirdly, neither dispersal nor culling was seen as an appropriate management strategy by the majority of respondents, including those from postcodes where flying-fox management was topical. These findings usefully inform community debate and policy development and demonstrate the value of social analysis in defining the issues and options in this complex human - wildlife interaction. The mobile nature of flying-foxes underlines the need for a management strategy at a regional or larger scale, and independent of state borders.

Experimental investigation of heat transfer reduction using forward facing cavity for missile shaped bodies flying at hypersonic speed

Forward facing circular nose cavity of 6 mm diameter in the nose portion of a generic missile shaped bodies is proposed to reduce the stagnation zone heat transfer. About 25% reduction in stagnation zone heat transfer is measured using platinum thin film sensors at Mach 8 in the IISc hypersonic shock tunnel. The presence of nose cavity does not alter the fundamental aerodynamic coefficients of the slender body. The experimental results along with the numerically predicted results is also discussed in this paper.