The design and use of annual budgets to cope with uncertainty

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Uncertainty, generalization, and neural representation of relevant variables for decision making

Dissertation presented to obtain the Ph.D degree in Biology, Computational Biology.

UNCERTAINTY AND DECISION-MAKING IN THE HUMAN BRAIN

Dissertation presented to obtain the Ph.D degree in Biology, Neuroscience

Support in decision-making under uncertainty: a project risk assessment tool development and supplementary advances

A foremost dispute that persists on the contemporary world’s agenda is change. The on-going social/technological/economic changes create a competitive and challenging environment for companies to endure. To benefit from these changes, world economies partially depend on emerging Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) and their adaptability skills, and subsequently the development of an integrated capability to innovate has become the prime strategy for most of SMEs to subsist and grow. However, innovation and change are always somewhat bonded to an inherent risk development, which subsequently brings on the necessity of a revision of risk management approaches in innovative processes, whose importance SMEs tend to disregard. Additionally, little efforts have been made to improve and create empirical models, metrics and tools to assist SMEs managing latent risks in their innovative projects. This work seeks to present and discuss a solution to support SMEs in engaging on systematic risk management practices, which consists on an integrated risk assessment and response support web-based tool - Spotrisk® - designed for SMEs. On the other hand, an inherent subjectivity is linked with risk management and identification processes, due to uncertainty trait of its nature, for each individual perceives situations according to his own idiosyncrasy, which brings complications in normalizing risk profiles and procedures. This essay aims to bring insights concerning the support in decision-making processes under uncertainty, by addressing issues related with the risk behavior character among individuals. To address such issues, subjects of neuroscience or psychology are explored and models to identify such character are proposed, as well as models to improve presented tool. This work attempts to go beyond the restrictive aim of endeavoring on technical improvement dissertation, and in embraces an exploratory conceptualization concerning micro, small and medium businesses’ traits regarding risk characters and project risk assessment tools.

A method to correct the flow distortion of offshore wind data using CFD simulation and experimental wind tunnel tests

The assessment of wind energy resource for the development of deep offshore wind plants requires the use of every possible source of data and, in many cases, includes data gathered at meteorological stations installed at islands, islets or even oil platforms—all structures that interfere with, and change, the flow characteristics. This work aims to contribute to the evaluation of such changes in the flow by developing a correction methodology and applying it to the case of Berlenga island, Portugal. The study is performed using computational fluid dynamic simulations (CFD) validated by wind tunnel tests. In order to simulate the incoming offshore flow with CFD models a wind profile, unknown a priori, was established using observations from two coastal wind stations and a power law wind profile was fitted to the existing data (a=0.165). The results show that the resulting horizontal wind speed at 80 m above sea level is 16% lower than the wind speed at 80 m above the island for the dominant wind direction sector.

Atrial flutter complicating severe leptospirosis: a case report

Cardiac disturbances are relatively common and electrocardiographic abnormalities may be found in more than 70% of patients with leptospirosis. We report the case of a 68 year-old male with severe leptospirosis who developed atrial flutter. Effective treatment was done with amiodarone. The patient became clinical stable, with complete recovery. Rigorous clinical observation and continuous electrocardiogram (ECG) monitoring may facilitate the identification of rhythm disorders, and thus prevent a probable fatal outcome, in severe cases of leptospirosis.

Uncertainty in olfactory decision-making

Relationships between accuracy and speed of decision-making, or speed-accuracy tradeoffs (SAT), have been extensively studied. However, the range of SAT observed varies widely across studies for reasons that are unclear. Several explanations have been proposed, including motivation or incentive for speed vs. accuracy, species and modality but none of these hypotheses has been directly tested. An alternative explanation is that the different degrees of SAT are related to the nature of the task being performed. Here, we addressed this problem by comparing SAT in two odor-guided decision tasks that were identical except for the nature of the task uncertainty: an odor mixture categorization task, where the distinguishing information is reduced by making the stimuli more similar to each other; and an odor identification task in which the information is reduced by lowering the intensity over a range of three log steps. (...)

Contribution of the evaluation strategy and the use of hearing protection for the uncertainty associated with occupational exposure to noise

Doctoral Thesis for PhD degree in Industrial and Systems Engineering

Jet energy measurement and its systematic uncertainty in proton-proton collisions at s√=7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

The jet energy scale (JES) and its systematic uncertainty are determined for jets measured with the ATLAS detector using proton–proton collision data with a centre-of-mass energy of s√=7 TeV corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 4.7 fb −1 . Jets are reconstructed from energy deposits forming topological clusters of calorimeter cells using the anti- kt algorithm with distance parameters R=0.4 or R=0.6 , and are calibrated using MC simulations. A residual JES correction is applied to account for differences between data and MC simulations. This correction and its systematic uncertainty are estimated using a combination of in situ techniques exploiting the transverse momentum balance between a jet and a reference object such as a photon or a Z boson, for 20≤pjetT<1000 GeV and pseudorapidities |η|<4.5 . The effect of multiple proton–proton interactions is corrected for, and an uncertainty is evaluated using in situ techniques. The smallest JES uncertainty of less than 1 % is found in the central calorimeter region ( |η|<1.2 ) for jets with 55≤pjetT<500 GeV . For central jets at lower pT , the uncertainty is about 3 %. A consistent JES estimate is found using measurements of the calorimeter response of single hadrons in proton–proton collisions and test-beam data, which also provide the estimate for pjetT>1 TeV. The calibration of forward jets is derived from dijet pT balance measurements. The resulting uncertainty reaches its largest value of 6 % for low- pT jets at |η|=4.5 . Additional JES uncertainties due to specific event topologies, such as close-by jets or selections of event samples with an enhanced content of jets originating from light quarks or gluons, are also discussed. The magnitude of these uncertainties depends on the event sample used in a given physics analysis, but typically amounts to 0.5–3 %.

Project management under uncertainty: a study on solution methods

Project Management involves onetime endeavors that demand for getting it right the first time. On the other hand, project scheduling, being one of the most modeled project management process stages, still faces a wide gap from theory to practice. Demanding computational models and their consequent call for simplification, divert the implementation of such models in project management tools from the actual day to day project management process. Special focus is being made to the robustness of the generated project schedules facing the omnipresence of uncertainty. An "easy" way out is to add, more or less cleverly calculated, time buffers that always result in project duration increase and correspondingly, in cost. A better approach to deal with uncertainty seems to be to explore slack that might be present in a given project schedule, a fortiori when a non-optimal schedule is used. The combination of such approach to recent advances in modeling resource allocation and scheduling techniques to cope with the increasing flexibility in resources, as can be expressed in "Flexible Resource Constraint Project Scheduling Problem" (FRCPSP) formulations, should be a promising line of research to generate more adequate project management tools. In reality, this approach has been frequently used, by project managers in an ad-hoc way.

Development of a methodology to incorporate risk and uncertainty in electricity power planning

Dissertação de mestrado em Engenharia Industrial

Ablação por cateter do flutter atrial. Caracterização eletrofisiológica da interrupção da condução pelos istmos posterior e septal

OBJETIVO: Avaliar os tipos de bloqueio obtidos nos istmos posterior (entre o anel tricuspídeo e veia cava inferior) e septal (entre o anel tricuspídeo e óstio do seio coronário), após ablação do flutter atrial (FLA). MÉTODOS: Foram submetidos à ablação por radiofreqüência (RF) 14 pacientes com FLA tipo I (9 homens) em 16 procedimentos. A ativação atrial ao redor do anel tricuspídeo foi avaliada em ritmo sinusal utilizando-se cateter "Halo" com 10 pares de eletrodos (H1-2 a H19-20), durante estimulação do seio coronário proximal (SCP) e região póstero-lateral do átrio direito (H1-2), antes e após ablações lineares. De acordo com a frente de programação do impulso definiu-se: ausência de bloqueio (condução bidirecional), bloqueio incompleto (condução bidirecional com retardo num dos sentidos) e bloqueio completo (ausência de condução pelo istmo). O intervalo desta ativação (deltaSCP/H1-2) foi analisado. RESULTADOS: Bloqueio completo foi obtido em 7 procedimentos (44%) e incompleto em 4 (25%). O deltaSCP/H1-2 foi de 74 ± 26ms no primeiro grupo e de 30,5 ± 7,5ms no segundo (p<0,05). Em 5 casos não demonstrou-se bloqueio. Num seguimento médio de 12 meses, ocorreu recorrência do FLA nos 6 pacientes com bloqueio incompleto ou ausente e em nenhum com bloqueio completo (p<0,001). CONCLUSÃO: A verificação de bloqueio completo pelo mapeamento multipolar atrial é uma estratégia eficaz para definir o sucesso e recorrência clínica na ablação do FLA tipo I.

Ablação com radiofreqüência do flutter atrial tipo I. Importância do bloqueio bidirecional do istmo entre a veia cava inferior e o anel da valva tricúspide

OBJETIVO: Estudar a importância clínica da determinação eletrofisiológica da presença de bloqueio bidirecional na condução pelo istmo localizado entre a veia cava inferior e o anel da valva tricúspide (VCI - AT), após a ablação do flutter atrial tipo I (FL) com radiofreqüência (RF). MÉTODOS: Quarenta pacientes consecutivos (idade média 51±11 anos) com FL foram submetidos a ablação do istmo VCI-AT com RF. Em 30 pacientes (GI), o sucesso foi avaliado pela interrupção e não reindução do FL com estimulação atrial programada. Nos últimos 10 pacientes foi avaliada também a condução bidirecional pelo istmo, com cateteres posicionados na sua entrada e saída e em cada lado da linha de bloqueio. O bloqueio foi considerado bidirecional quando ocorrido nos dois sentidos e unidirecional quando ocorrido em um só sentido. RESULTADOS: Vinte e seis (86%) pacientes do GI e 10 (100%) do GII tiveram sucesso imediato (p= 0,5558). Durante o seguimento, 7 (30%) de 23 pacientes do GI e 3 (30%) de 9 do GII tiveram recorrência de FL (p= NS). Os três pacientes do GII que apresentaram recorrência tinham bloqueio unidirecional, enquanto os seis casos sem recorrência tinham bloqueio bidirecional (p=0,012). CONCLUSÃO: A demonstração de bloqueio bidirecional no istmo VCI-AT, obtida imediatamente após a ablação do FL com RF, relaciona-se a menor índice de recorrência clínica, devendo ser o critério preferencial para término do procedimento.

Random walk forecast of urban water in Iran under uncertainty

There are two significant reasons for the uncertainties of water demand. On one hand, an evolving technological world is plagued with accelerated change in lifestyles and consumption patterns; and on the other hand, intensifying climate change. Therefore, with an uncertain future, what enables policymakers to define the state of water resources, which are affected by withdrawals and demands? Through a case study based on thirteen years of observation data in the Zayandeh Rud River basin in Isfahan province located in Iran, this paper forecasts a wide range of urban water demand possibilities in order to create a portfolio of plans which could be utilized by different water managers. A comparison and contrast of two existing methods are discussed, demonstrating the Random Walk Methodology, which will be referred to as the â On uncertainty pathâ , because it takes the uncertainties into account and can be recommended to managers. This On Uncertainty Path is composed of both dynamic forecasting method and system simulation. The outcomes show the advantage of such methods particularly for places that climate change will aggravate their water scarcity, such as Iran.

Efetividade do metoprolol na prevenção de fibrilação e flutter atrial no pós-operatório de cirurgia de revascularização miocárdica

OBJETIVO: Avaliar a efetividade do metoprolol na prevenção de fibrilação e flutter atrial clinicamente detectáveis após cirurgia de revascularização miocárdica. MÉTODOS: Ensaio clínico, randomizado e aberto, para tratar 200 pacientes submetidos à cirurgia de revascularização miocárdica isolada com circulação extracorpórea, randomizados para receber metoprolol, por via oral, ou para não receber a medicação no pós-operatório. Os desfechos de interesse eram a detecção de fibrilação e flutter atrial sustentados, sintomáticos ou que requeressem tratamento. Excluídos do estudo os pacientes com fração de ejeção basal do ventrículo esquerdo < 35%, fibrilação atrial prévia, história de broncoespasmo, bloqueios atrioventriculares de 2º e 3º grau, baixo débito cardíaco e insuficiência cardíaca. RESULTADOS: Arritmias ocorreram em 11 de 100 pacientes do grupo metoprolol e em 24 de 100 pacientes do grupo controle (p=0,02). O risco relativo (RR) foi 0,46 (IC de 95%= 0,24-0,88) e o número necessário para tratar (NNT) e evitar o desfecho foi de 8 pacientes. A fibrilação atrial foi a arritmia mais freqüentemente observada (30/35). Em 38 pacientes com idade > 70 anos, as arritmias ocorreram em 2 de 19 pacientes do grupo metoprolol e em 10 de 19 do grupo controle (c2 Yates: p=0,01). O risco relativo foi 0,20 (IC de 95%= 0,05-0,79) e o número necessário para tratar foi de 2 pacientes. CONCLUSÃO: O metoprolol é efetivo na prevenção de fibrilação e flutter atrial no PO de cirurgia de revascularização miocárdica, sendo esse efeito mais marcante no grupo de pacientes idosos.