Estimating present day extreme total water level exceedance probabilities around the Australian coastline

The occurrence of extreme water level events along low-lying, highly populated and/or developed coastlines can lead to devastating impacts on coastal infrastructure. Therefore it is very important that the probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform flood and coastal management and for future planning. The aim of this study was to provide estimates of present day extreme total water level exceedance probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia, arising from combinations of mean sea level, astronomical tide and storm surges generated by both extra-tropical and tropical storms, but exclusive of surface gravity waves. The study has been undertaken in two main stages. In the first stage, a high-resolution (~10 km along the coast) hydrodynamic depth averaged model has been configured for the whole coastline of Australia using the Danish Hydraulics Institute’s Mike21 modelling suite of tools. The model has been forced with astronomical tidal levels, derived from the TPX07.2 global tidal model, and meteorological fields, from the US National Center for Environmental Prediction’s global reanalysis, to generate a 61-year (1949 to 2009) hindcast of water levels. This model output has been validated against measurements from 30 tide gauge sites around Australia with long records. At each of the model grid points located around the coast, time series of annual maxima and the several highest water levels for each year were derived from the multi-decadal water level hindcast and have been fitted to extreme value distributions to estimate exceedance probabilities. Stage 1 provided a reliable estimate of the present day total water level exceedance probabilities around southern Australia, which is mainly impacted by extra-tropical storms. However, as the meteorological fields used to force the hydrodynamic model only weakly include the effects of tropical cyclones the resultant water levels exceedance probabilities were underestimated around western, northern and north-eastern Australia at higher return periods. Even if the resolution of the meteorological forcing was adequate to represent tropical cyclone-induced surges, multi-decadal periods yielded insufficient instances of tropical cyclones to enable the use of traditional extreme value extrapolation techniques. Therefore, in the second stage of the study, a statistical model of tropical cyclone tracks and central pressures was developed using histroic observations. This model was then used to generate synthetic events that represented 10,000 years of cyclone activity for the Australia region, with characteristics based on the observed tropical cyclones over the last ~40 years. Wind and pressure fields, derived from these synthetic events using analytical profile models, were used to drive the hydrodynamic model to predict the associated storm surge response. A random time period was chosen, during the tropical cyclone season, and astronomical tidal forcing for this period was included to account for non-linear interactions between the tidal and surge components. For each model grid point around the coast, annual maximum total levels for these synthetic events were calculated and these were used to estimate exceedance probabilities. The exceedance probabilities from stages 1 and 2 were then combined to provide a single estimate of present day extreme water level probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia.

Chroma Key Theatre : an examination of similarities and divergences in the use of Green Screen in two experimental theatre works

This paper examines the frame as it contributes to the debate on contemporary intermedial theatre and performance practices in light of increasing astriction between filmic and theatrical discourses. Informed by Auslander (1999), Lehmann (2006), and Giesekam (2007), and through an extrapolation of the tenets Eckersall, Gretchen and Scheer identify in the theory of New Media Dramaturgy, it will analyse two recent works of experimental theatre-making. RUFF (2013), a New York produced solo performance by one of the world’s leading female performers, explores her experiences of having a stroke. Total Dik! (2013), produced in Brisbane, Australia, is an interdisciplinary collaborative performance that examines aspects of dictatorship. They are clearly very different works yet there are a number of significant theatrical similarities in their use of Chroma Key technology and live compositing as material scenic devices. These works overtly and evocatively draw on the cinematic technique and technology of Chroma Key to augment and reveal the tensions and overlaps in their production processes.

Carcinogenicity and genotoxicity of ethylene oxide : new aspects and recent advances

Long-term inhalation studies in rodents have presented unequivocal evidence of experimental carcinogenicity of ethylene oxide, based on the formation of malignant tumors at multiple sites. However, despite a considerable body of epidemiological data only limited evidence has been obtained of its carcinogenicity in humans. Ethylene oxide is not only an important exogenous toxicant, but it is also formed from ethylene as a biological precursor. Ethylene is a normal body constituent; its endogenous formation is evidenced by exhalation in rats and in humans. Consequently, ethylene oxide must also be regarded as a physiological compound. The most abundant DNA adduct of ethylene oxide is 7-(2-hydroxyethyl)guanine (HOEtG). Open questions are the nature and role of tissue-specific factors in ethylene oxide carcinogenesis and the physiological and quantitative role of DNA repair mechanisms. The detection of remarkable individual differences in the susceptibility of humans has promoted research into genetic factors that influence the metabolism of ethylene oxide. With this background it appears that current PBPK models for trans-species extrapolation of ethylene oxide toxicity need to be refined further. For a cancer risk assessment at low levels of DNA damage, exposure-related adducts must be discussed in relation to background DNA damage as well as to inter- and intraindividual variability. In rats, subacute ethylene oxide exposures on the order of 1 ppm (1.83 mg/m3) cause DNA adduct levels (HOEtG) of the same magnitude as produced by endogenous ethylene oxide. Based on very recent studies the endogenous background levels of HOEtG in DNA of humans are comparable to those that are produced in rodents by repetitive exogenous ethylene oxide exposures of about 10 ppm (18.3 mg/m3). Experimentally, ethylene oxide has revealed only weak mutagenic effects in vivo, which are confined to higher doses. It has been concluded that long-term human occupational exposure to low airborne concentrations to ethylene oxide, at or below current occupational exposure limits of 1 ppm (1.83 mg/m3), would not produce unacceptable increased genotoxic risks. However, critical questions remain that need further discussions relating to the coherence of animal and human data of experimental data in vitro vs. in vivo and to species-specific dynamics of DNA lesions.

Clinical trials in pediatrics

“Children are not little adults.” Almost all aspects of children's health including clinical trials and drug development are poor cousins of adult health. Over the years, pediatricians worldwide caution against blind extrapolation of adult data to children as it may result in considerable harm [1,2]. Also, it is increasingly recognized that the roots of many chronic diseases in adulthood stem from childhood and tackling health issues in children lead to improved health in adults [3,4]. Furthermore, investment in early childhood has long-term benefits in adults not only in health but also in other aspects of life such as education and crime reduction [4,5]. Arguably, health at birth is the single most important predictor of health in adulthood as the inequality of an infant at birth has intergenerational effects [5]. The Carolina Abecedarian Project showed that early childhood programs that are of high quality result in substantial societal benefits (e.g., reduction of crime, increased earnings, better education) [4,5]. A recent publication from this project found that this benefit also translated into improved adult health outcomes [4]. In a randomized trial, Campbell and colleagues described that disadvantaged children who were randomized to the intervention group (early education, health screenings and nutrition program) had significantly lower rates of metabolic syndrome, obesity and hypertension, when aged in their mid-30s, compared with the control group [4]...

Assessment of the effects of CT dose in averaged x-ray CT images of a dose-sensitive polymer gel

The signal-to-noise ratio achievable in x-ray computed tomography (CT) images of polymer gels can be increased by averaging over multiple scans of each sample. However, repeated scanning delivers a small additional dose to the gel which may compromise the accuracy of the dose measurement. In this study, a NIPAM-based polymer gel was irradiated and then CT scanned 25 times, with the resulting data used to derive an averaged image and a "zero-scan" image of the gel. Comparison between these two results and the first scan of the gel showed that the averaged and zero-scan images provided better contrast, higher contrast-to- noise and higher signal-to-noise than the initial scan. The pixel values (Hounsfield units, HU) in the averaged image were not noticeably elevated, compared to the zero-scan result and the gradients used in the linear extrapolation of the zero-scan images were small and symmetrically distributed around zero. These results indicate that the averaged image was not artificially lightened by the small, additional dose delivered during CT scanning. This work demonstrates the broader usefulness of the zero-scan method as a means to verify the dosimetric accuracy of gel images derived from averaged x-ray CT data.

Start making sense: Applying a salutogenic model to architectural design for psychiatric care

Purpose This paper aims to look into the significance of architectural design in psychiatric care facilities. There is a strong correlation between perceptual dysfunction and psychiatric illness, and also between the patient and his environment. As such, even minor design choices can be of great consequence in a psychiatric facility. It is of critical importance, therefore, that a psychiatric milieu is sympathetic and does not exacerbate the psychosis. Design/methodology/approach This paper analyses the architectural elements that may influence mental health, using an architectural extrapolation of Antonovsky’s salutogenic theory, which states that better health results from a state of mind which has a fortified sense of coherence. According to the theory, a sense of coherence is fostered by a patient’s ability to comprehend the environment (comprehensibility), to be effective in his actions (manageability) and to find meaning (meaningfullness). Findings Salutogenic theory can be extrapolated in an architectural context to inform design choices when designing for a stress-sensitive client base. Research limitations/implications In the paper an architectural extrapolation of salutogenic theory is presented as a practical method for making design decisions (in praxis) when evidence is not available. As demonstrated, the results appear to reflect what evidence is available, but real evidence is always desirable over rationalist speculation. The method suggested here cannot prove the efficacy or appropriateness of design decisions and is not intended to do so. Practical implications The design of mental health facilities has long been dominated by unsubstantiated policy and normative opinions that do not always serve the client population. This method establishes a practical theoretical model for generating architectural design guidelines for mental health facilities. Originality/value The paper will prove to be helpful in several ways. First, salutogenic theory is a useful framework for improving health outcomes, but in the past the theory has never been applied in a methodological way. Second, there have been few insights into how the architecture itself can improve the functionality of a mental health facility other than improve the secondary functions of hospital services.

Thermodynamic characterization of the conformational stability of the homodimeric protein, pea lectin

The conformational stability of the homodimeric pea lectin was determined by both isothermal urea-induced and thermal denaturation in the absence and presence of urea. The denaturation profiles were analyzed to obtain the thermodynamic parameters associated with the unfolding of the protein. The data not only conform to the simple A(2) double left right arrow 2U model of unfolding but also are well described by the linear extrapolation model for the nature of denaturant-protein interactions. In addition, both the conformational stability (Delta G(s)) and the Delta C-p for the protein unfolding is quite high, at about 18.79 kcal/ mol and 5.32 kcal/(mol K), respectively, which may be a reflection of the relatively larger size of the dimeric molecule (M-r 49 000) and, perhaps, a consequent larger buried hydrophobic core in the folded protein. The simple two-state (A(2) double left right arrow 2U) nature of the unfolding process, with the absence of any monomeric intermediate, suggests that the quaternary interactions alone may contribute significantly to the conformational stability of the oligomer-a point that may be general to many oligomeric proteins.

Concept of "Crossover Point" and its Application on Threshold Voltage Definition for Undoped-Body Transistors

As the conventional MOSFET's scaling is approaching the limit imposed by short channel effects, Double Gate (DG) MOS transistors are appearing as the most feasible candidate in terms of technology in sub-45nm technology nodes. As the short channel effect in DG transistor is controlled by the device geometry, undoped or lightly doped body is used to sustain the channel. There exits a disparity in threshold voltage calculation criteria of undoped-body symmetric double gate transistors which uses two definitions, one is potential based and the another is charge based definition. In this paper, a novel concept of "crossover point'' is introduced, which proves that the charge-based definition is more accurate than the potential based definition.The change in threshold voltage with body thickness variation for a fixed channel length is anomalous as predicted by potential based definition while it is monotonous for charge based definition.The threshold voltage is then extracted from drain currant versus gate voltage characteristics using linear extrapolation and "Third Derivative of Drain-Source Current'' method or simply "TD'' method. The trend of threshold voltage variation is found same in both the cases which support charge-based definition.

Concept of Crossover point and its application on Threshold Voltage definition for Undoped-Body Transistors

As the conventional MOSFETs scaling is approaching the limit imposed by short channel effects, Double Gate (DG) MOS transistors are appearing as the most feasible andidate in terms of technology in sub-45nm technology nodes. As the short channel effect in DG transistor is controlled by the device geometry, undoped or lightly doped body, is used to sustain the channel. There exits a disparity in threshold voltage calculation criteria of undoped-body symmetric double gate transistors which uses two definitions, one is potential based and the another is charge based definition. In this paper, a novel concept of "crossover point" is introduced, which proves that the charge-based definition is more accurate than the potential based definition. The change in threshold voltage with body thickness variation for a fixed channel length is anomalous as predicted by, potential based definition while it is monotonous for change based definition. The threshold voltage is then extracted from drain currant versus gate voltage characteristics using linear extrapolation and "Third Derivative of Drain-Source Current" method or simply "TD" method. The trend of threshold voltage variation is found some in both the cases which support charge-based definition.

An extended regression approach to estimating loads and their uncertainties in Great Barrier Reef catchments

There are numerous load estimation methods available, some of which are captured in various online tools. However, most estimators are subject to large biases statistically, and their associated uncertainties are often not reported. This makes interpretation difficult and the estimation of trends or determination of optimal sampling regimes impossible to assess. In this paper, we first propose two indices for measuring the extent of sampling bias, and then provide steps for obtaining reliable load estimates by minimizing the biases and making use of possible predictive variables. The load estimation procedure can be summarized by the following four steps: - (i) output the flow rates at regular time intervals (e.g. 10 minutes) using a time series model that captures all the peak flows; - (ii) output the predicted flow rates as in (i) at the concentration sampling times, if the corresponding flow rates are not collected; - (iii) establish a predictive model for the concentration data, which incorporates all possible predictor variables and output the predicted concentrations at the regular time intervals as in (i), and; - (iv) obtain the sum of all the products of the predicted flow and the predicted concentration over the regular time intervals to represent an estimate of the load. The key step to this approach is in the development of an appropriate predictive model for concentration. This is achieved using a generalized regression (rating-curve) approach with additional predictors that capture unique features in the flow data, namely the concept of the first flush, the location of the event on the hydrograph (e.g. rise or fall) and cumulative discounted flow. The latter may be thought of as a measure of constituent exhaustion occurring during flood events. The model also has the capacity to accommodate autocorrelation in model errors which are the result of intensive sampling during floods. Incorporating this additional information can significantly improve the predictability of concentration, and ultimately the precision with which the pollutant load is estimated. We also provide a measure of the standard error of the load estimate which incorporates model, spatial and/or temporal errors. This method also has the capacity to incorporate measurement error incurred through the sampling of flow. We illustrate this approach using the concentrations of total suspended sediment (TSS) and nitrogen oxide (NOx) and gauged flow data from the Burdekin River, a catchment delivering to the Great Barrier Reef. The sampling biases for NOx concentrations range from 2 to 10 times indicating severe biases. As we expect, the traditional average and extrapolation methods produce much higher estimates than those when bias in sampling is taken into account.

Properties Of Castor Oil Impregnated All-Polypropylene And Polypropylene-Paper Capacitors

In view of its non-toxicity, and good dielectric properties, castor oil, a polar liquid dielectric of vegetable origin is suggested as a possible alternative to PCB's for capacitor applications. In this paper the dielectric properties (including partial discharge behavior), of all-polypropylene and paper-polypropylene capacitors with castor oil as impregnant, are reported. The paper also contains results of life studies conducted under accelerated electrical and thermal stresses when they are occurring both individually and combined. The data obtained have been statistically analyzed and approximate life of the system calculated bylinear extrapolation.

Justifying threshold voltage definition for undoped body transistors through ``crossover point'' concept

Two different definitions, one is potential based and the other is charge based, are used in the literatures to define the threshold voltage of undoped body symmetric double gate transistors. This paper, by introducing a novel concept of crossover point, proves that the charge based definition is more accurate than the potential based definition. It is shown that for a given channel length the potential based definition predicts anomalous change in threshold voltage with body thickness variation while the charge based definition results in monotonous change. The threshold voltage is then extracted from drain current versus gate voltage characteristics using linear extrapolation, transconductance and match-point methods. In all the three cases it is found that trend of threshold voltage variation support the charge based definition.

Phyllosphere of Cotton as a Habitat for Diazotrophic Microorganisms

Positive nitrogenase activities ranging from 0.18 to 0.78 nmol of C2H4 cm−2 h−1 were detected on the leaf surfaces of different varieties of cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L. and G. herbaceum L.) plants. Beijerinckia sp. was observed to be the predominant nitrogen-fixing microorganism in the phyllosphere of these varieties. A higher level of phyllosphere nitrogen-fixing activity was recorded in the variety Varalaxmi despite a low C/N ratio in the leaf leachates. Leaf surfaces of the above variety possessed the largest number of hairy outgrowths (trichomes) which entrapped a majority of microbes. Immersion of plant roots in nutrient medium containing 32Pi led to the accumulation of label in the trichome-borne microorganisms, thereby indicating a possible transfer of nutrients from leaf to microbes via trichomes. Extrapolation of acetylene reduction values suggested that 1.6 to 3.2 kg of N ha−1 might be contributed by diazotrophs in the phyllosphere of the variety Varalaxmi during the entire growth period.

Prolonged hyperinsulinemia affects metabolic signal transduction markers in a tissue specific manner

Insulin dysregulation is common in horses although the mechanisms of metabolic dysfunction are poorly understood. We hypothesized that insulin signaling in striated (cardiac and skeletal) muscle and lamellae may be mediated through different receptors as a result of receptor content, and that transcriptional regulation of downstream signal transduction and glucose transport may also differ between tissues sites during hyperinsulinemia. Archived samples from horses treated with a prolonged insulin infusion or a balanced electrolyte solution were used. All treated horses developed marked hyperinsulinemia and clinical laminitis. Protein expression was compared across tissues for the insulin receptor and insulin-like growth factor 1 receptor (IGF-1R) by immunoblotting. Gene expression of metabolic insulin-signaling markers (insulin receptor substrate 1, Akt2, and glycogen synthase kinase 3 beta [GSK-3β]) and glucose transport (basal glucose transporter 1 and insulin-sensitive glucose transporter 4) was evaluated using real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction. Lamellar tissue contained significantly more IGF-1R protein than skeletal muscle, indicating the potential significance of IGF-1R signaling for this tissue. Gene expression of the selected markers of insulin signaling and glucose transport in skeletal muscle and lamellar tissues was unaffected by prolonged hyperinsulinemia. In contrast, the significant upregulation of Akt2, GSK-3β, GLUT1, and GLUT4 gene expression in cardiac tissue suggested that the prolonged hyperinsulinemia induced an increase in insulin sensitivity and a transcriptional activation of glucose transport. Responses to insulin are tissue-specific, and extrapolation of data across tissue sites is inappropriate.

Coexistence curve of acetonitrile and cyclohexane liquid system

The paper reports a detailed determination of the coexistence curve for the binary liquid system acetonitrile+cyclohexane, which have very closely matched densities and the data points get affected by gravity only for t=(Tc−T)/ Tc[approximately-equal-to]10−6. About 100 samples were measured over the range 10−6extrapolation properties of the Wegner expansion procedure is somewhat inferior to the extrapolation obtained using a renormalization group (RG) crossover expansion. The use of the new variables proposed by Johnston et al. and Vnuk in making the coexistence curve appear symmetric in the new variables is pointed out. The Journal of Chemical Physics is copyrighted by The American Institute of Physics.