Biological determinants of extinction risk: why are smaller species less vulnerable?

It is becoming increasingly clear that species of smaller body size tend to be less vulnerable to contemporary extinction threats than larger species, but few studies have examined the mechanisms underlying this pattern. In this paper, data for the Australian terrestrial mammal fauna are used to ask whether higher reproductive output or smaller home ranges can explain the reduced extinction risk of smaller species. Extinct and endangered species do indeed have smaller litters and larger home ranges for their body size than expected under a null model. In multiple regressions, however, only litter size is a significant predictor of extinction risk once body size and phylogeny are controlled for. Larger litters contribute to fast population growth, and are probably part of the reason that smaller species are less extinction-prone. The effect of litter size varies between the mesic coastal regions and the and interior of Australia, indicating that the environment a species inhabits mediates the effect of biology on extinction risk. These results suggest that predicting extinction risk from biological traits is likely to be a complex task which must consider explicitly interactions between biology and environment.

The use of stochastic dynamic programming in optimal landscape reconstruction for metapopulations

A decision theory framework can be a powerful technique to derive optimal management decisions for endangered species. We built a spatially realistic stochastic metapopulation model for the Mount Lofty Ranges Southern Emu-wren (Stipiturus malachurus intermedius), a critically endangered Australian bird. Using diserete-time Markov,chains to describe the dynamics of a metapopulation and stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) to find optimal solutions, we evaluated the following different management decisions: enlarging existing patches, linking patches via corridors, and creating a new patch. This is the first application of SDP to optimal landscape reconstruction and one of the few times that landscape reconstruction dynamics have been integrated with population dynamics. SDP is a powerful tool that has advantages over standard Monte Carlo simulation methods because it can give the exact optimal strategy for every landscape configuration (combination of patch areas and presence of corridors) and pattern of metapopulation occupancy, as well as a trajectory of strategies. It is useful when a sequence of management actions can be performed over a given time horizon, as is the case for many endangered species recovery programs, where only fixed amounts of resources are available in each time step. However, it is generally limited by computational constraints to rather small networks of patches. The model shows that optimal metapopulation, management decisions depend greatly on the current state of the metapopulation,. and there is no strategy that is universally the best. The extinction probability over 30 yr for the optimal state-dependent management actions is 50-80% better than no management, whereas the best fixed state-independent sets of strategies are only 30% better than no management. This highlights the advantages of using a decision theory tool to investigate conservation strategies for metapopulations. It is clear from these results that the sequence of management actions is critical, and this can only be effectively derived from stochastic dynamic programming. The model illustrates the underlying difficulty in determining simple rules of thumb for the sequence of management actions for a metapopulation. This use of a decision theory framework extends the capacity of population viability analysis (PVA) to manage threatened species.

Programa times de resultados

O Banco do Nordeste, a partir de 1995, iniciou um profundo processo de mudan??a organizacional ??? redefini????o e amplia????o dos neg??cios, redefini????o das estrat??gias, reorienta????o na forma de funcionamento e inser????o de novas concep????es na gest??o de pessoas. Havia a necessidade de uma maior intera????o da Dire????o Geral (??reas estrat??gicas) com as unidades de neg??cios e uma melhor comunica????o sobre as estrat??gias adotadas para o processo de mudan??a organizacional. Fazia-se necess??rio criar uma ambi??ncia para sustenta????o desse processo de mudan??as, que possibilitasse o aprofundamento dos conceitos e pressupostos do novo modelo organizacional e proporcionasse o desenvolvimento das equipes e conseq??entemente a melhoria dos resultados empresarias. Desde a cria????o do Programa em 1997, foram realizadas 333 oficinas, sendo que deste total 86 j?? se constitu??ram segunda oficina. Anualmente, ?? realizado acompanhamento de p??s-venda das oficinas, o que tem gerado registros em torno de 1.373 depoimentos positivos de gestores e colaboradores sobre o Programa. Desde a sua cria????o, foram gerados 4.093 compromissos de melhoria cont??nua nas dimens??es estrat??gias, processos e pessoas, transformando positivamente a realidade das unidades

On righteousness and dignity : two challenging issues since early modern times

Concepts such as righteousness, equality, tolerance and freedom are nowadays considered fundamental issues that should prevail in any society. Balance and righteousness thrive however on a very thin layer. We are, in fact, living in an era of duality and antithetical paradigms. This essay approaches two Renaissance authors who dealt with the same matters in their works, at a very different time and through different ways of reflection: Thomas More and Sir Walter Raleigh.

Memory as discourse in Harold Pinter's old times, betrayal and a kind of Alaska

This paper aims at developing the topic of identity and the narration of the self through the other in Harold Pinter’s plays Old Times, Betrayal and A Kind of Alaska. In these plays Pinter deploys strategies to convey multiple implications which are based on the power of memory in which the structure of the plays is concocted.

A framework for the response time analysis of fixed-priority tasks with stochastic inter-arrival times

Real-time scheduling usually considers worst-case values for the parameters of task (or message stream) sets, in order to provide safe schedulability tests for hard real-time systems. However, worst-case conditions introduce a level of pessimism that is often inadequate for a certain class of (soft) real-time systems. In this paper we provide an approach for computing the stochastic response time of tasks where tasks have inter-arrival times described by discrete probabilistic distribution functions, instead of minimum inter-arrival (MIT) values.

Avoiding healthy cells extinction in a cancer model

We consider a dynamical model of cancer growth including three interacting cell populations of tumor cells, healthy host cells and immune effector cells. For certain parameter choice, the dynamical system displays chaotic motion and by decreasing the response of the immune system to the tumor cells, a boundary crisis leading to transient chaotic dynamics is observed. This means that the system behaves chaotically for a finite amount of time until the unavoidable extinction of the healthy and immune cell populations occurs. Our main goal here is to apply a control method to avoid extinction. For that purpose, we apply the partial control method, which aims to control transient chaotic dynamics in the presence of external disturbances. As a result, we have succeeded to avoid the uncontrolled growth of tumor cells and the extinction of healthy tissue. The possibility of using this method compared to the frequently used therapies is discussed. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The last Anthracothere Brachyodus onoideus (Mammalia, Artiodactyla) from westernmost Europe and its extinction

This paper deals with B. onoideus specimens from Portugal. This species occurs in the Lisbon area (in the upper part of the lower Miocene, ca.18 to 17.6 Ma) in a very accurate stratigraphic framing (age, lithostratigraphic, climatic and palaeoecologic control being most complete). Some mandibular dental size variation, sex characters, functional interpretation, ecology and predation, chemical corrosion, and extinction are discussed.

Activation of effector immune cells promotes tumor stochastic extinction: A homotopy analysis approach

In this article we provide homotopy solutions of a cancer nonlinear model describing the dynamics of tumor cells in interaction with healthy and effector immune cells. We apply a semi-analytic technique for solving strongly nonlinear systems – the Step Homotopy Analysis Method (SHAM). This algorithm, based on a modification of the standard homotopy analysis method (HAM), allows to obtain a one-parameter family of explicit series solutions. By using the homotopy solutions, we first investigate the dynamical effect of the activation of the effector immune cells in the deterministic dynamics, showing that an increased activation makes the system to enter into chaotic dynamics via a period-doubling bifurcation scenario. Then, by adding demographic stochasticity into the homotopy solutions, we show, as a difference from the deterministic dynamics, that an increased activation of the immune cells facilitates cancer clearance involving tumor cells extinction and healthy cells persistence. Our results highlight the importance of therapies activating the effector immune cells at early stages of cancer progression.

Explosion birth and extinction: Double big bang bifurcations and Allee effect in Tsoularis-Wallace's growth models

This work concerns dynamics and bifurcations properties of a new class of continuous-defined one-dimensional maps: Tsoularis-Wallace's functions. This family of functions naturally incorporates a major focus of ecological research: the Allee effect. We provide a necessary condition for the occurrence of this phenomenon of extinction. To establish this result we introduce the notions of Allee's functions, Allee's effect region and Allee's bifurcation curve. Another central point of our investigation is the study of bifurcation structures for this class of functions, in a three-dimensional parameter space. We verified that under some sufficient conditions, Tsoularis-Wallace's functions have particular bifurcation structures: the big bang and the double big bang bifurcations of the so-called "box-within-a-box" type. The double big bang bifurcations are related to the existence of flip codimension-2 points. Moreover, it is verified that these bifurcation cascades converge to different big bang bifurcation curves, where for the corresponding parameter values are associated distinct kinds of boxes. This work contributes to clarify the big bang bifurcation analysis for continuous maps and understand their relationship with explosion birth and extinction phenomena.

Entities delaying payments in times of crisis and its impact on profitability

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

How bank business models relate with risk?: The case of Portugal in times of financial crisis

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Low frequency of side effects following an incidental 25 times concentrated dose of yellow fever vaccine

In August/1999, a group of 14 adults from the staff of a private hospital in Contagem -- Minas Gerais State, Brazil, received unintentionally a 25 times concentrated dose of the 17-DD yellow fever vaccine (Bio-Manguinhos), due to a mistake at the reconstitution step. All patients were clinically and laboratorially evaluated at days 5, 13 and 35 post vaccination. Frequency of side effects and clinical observations of this group of individuals were not different from the observed in recipients immunized with normal doses of the vaccine. At the second and third evaluation none of the subjects reported symptoms. None of the patients presented abnormalities at the physical examination at none of the time points and in all cases the blood examination was normal, except for a reduced number of platelets that was detected in one subject at the first and second evaluation and reverted to normal at third evaluation. At the first evaluation point, 8 subjects were serum negative and 6 serum positive for yellow fever at the plaque reduction neutralization test. In 5 subjects the observed titre was 10 times higher as the baseline of 2.36 Log10 mUI/ml. The samples collected at second and third evaluation (13th and 35th days) demonstrated that all subjects responded to the vaccination with the exception of one that did not present a positive result in any of the samples collected. This evaluation confirms the safety of the 17-DD yellow fever vaccine.