Design of a Recreational Fishing Survey and Mark-Recapture Study for the Blue Crab, Callinectes sapidus, in Chesapeake Bay

The development of bay wide estimates of recreational harvest has been identified as a high priority by the Chesapeake Bay Scientific Advisory Committee (CBSAC) and by the Chesapeake Bay Program as reflected in the Chesapeake Bay Blue Crab Fishery Management Plan (Chesapeake Bay Program 1996). In addition, the BiState Blue Crab Commission (BBCAC), formed in 1996 by mandate from the legislatures of Maryland and Virginia to advise on crab management, has also recognized the importance of estimating the levels and trends in catches in the recreational fishery. Recently, the BBCAC has adopted limit and target biological reference points. These analyses have been predicated on assumptions regarding the relative magnitude of the recreational and commercial catch. The reference points depend on determination of the total number of crabs removed from the population. In essence, the number removed by the various fishery sectors, represents a minimum estimate of the population size. If a major fishery sector is not represented, the total population will be accordingly underestimated. If the relative contribution of the unrepresented sector is constant over time and harvests the same components of the population as the other sectors, it may be argued that the population estimate derived from the other sectors is biased but still adequately represents trends in population size over time. If either of the two constraints mentioned above is not met, the validity of relative trends over time is suspect. With the recent increases in the human population in the Chesapeake Bay watershed, there is reason to be concerned that the recreational catch may not have been a constant proportion of the total harvest over time. It is important to assess the catch characteristics and the magnitude of the recreational fishery to evaluate this potential bias. (PDF contains 70 pages)

A-SCALA: an age-structured statistical catch-at-length analysis for assessing tuna stocks in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean

English: We describe an age-structured statistical catch-at-length analysis (A-SCALA) based on the MULTIFAN-CL model of Fournier et al. (1998). The analysis is applied independently to both the yellowfin and the bigeye tuna populations of the eastern Pacific Ocean (EPO). We model the populations from 1975 to 1999, based on quarterly time steps. Only a single stock for each species is assumed for each analysis, but multiple fisheries that are spatially separate are modeled to allow for spatial differences in catchability and selectivity. The analysis allows for error in the effort-fishing mortality relationship, temporal trends in catchability, temporal variation in recruitment, relationships between the environment and recruitment and between the environment and catchability, and differences in selectivity and catchability among fisheries. The model is fit to total catch data and proportional catch-at-length data conditioned on effort. The A-SCALA method is a statistical approach, and therefore recognizes that the data collected from the fishery do not perfectly represent the population. Also, there is uncertainty in our knowledge about the dynamics of the system and uncertainty about how the observed data relate to the real population. The use of likelihood functions allow us to model the uncertainty in the data collected from the population, and the inclusion of estimable process error allows us to model the uncertainties in the dynamics of the system. The statistical approach allows for the calculation of confidence intervals and the testing of hypotheses. We use a Bayesian version of the maximum likelihood framework that includes distributional constraints on temporal variation in recruitment, the effort-fishing mortality relationship, and catchability. Curvature penalties for selectivity parameters and penalties on extreme fishing mortality rates are also included in the objective function. The mode of the joint posterior distribution is used as an estimate of the model parameters. Confidence intervals are calculated using the normal approximation method. It should be noted that the estimation method includes constraints and priors and therefore the confidence intervals are different from traditionally calculated confidence intervals. Management reference points are calculated, and forward projections are carried out to provide advice for making management decisions for the yellowfin and bigeye populations. Spanish: Describimos un análisis estadístico de captura a talla estructurado por edad, A-SCALA (del inglés age-structured statistical catch-at-length analysis), basado en el modelo MULTIFAN- CL de Fournier et al. (1998). Se aplica el análisis independientemente a las poblaciones de atunes aleta amarilla y patudo del Océano Pacífico oriental (OPO). Modelamos las poblaciones de 1975 a 1999, en pasos trimestrales. Se supone solamente una sola población para cada especie para cada análisis, pero se modelan pesquerías múltiples espacialmente separadas para tomar en cuenta diferencias espaciales en la capturabilidad y selectividad. El análisis toma en cuenta error en la relación esfuerzo-mortalidad por pesca, tendencias temporales en la capturabilidad, variación temporal en el reclutamiento, relaciones entre el medio ambiente y el reclutamiento y entre el medio ambiente y la capturabilidad, y diferencias en selectividad y capturabilidad entre pesquerías. Se ajusta el modelo a datos de captura total y a datos de captura a talla proporcional condicionados sobre esfuerzo. El método A-SCALA es un enfoque estadístico, y reconoce por lo tanto que los datos obtenidos de la pesca no representan la población perfectamente. Además, hay incertidumbre en nuestros conocimientos de la dinámica del sistema e incertidumbre sobre la relación entre los datos observados y la población real. El uso de funciones de verosimilitud nos permite modelar la incertidumbre en los datos obtenidos de la población, y la inclusión de un error de proceso estimable nos permite modelar las incertidumbres en la dinámica del sistema. El enfoque estadístico permite calcular intervalos de confianza y comprobar hipótesis. Usamos una versión bayesiana del marco de verosimilitud máxima que incluye constreñimientos distribucionales sobre la variación temporal en el reclutamiento, la relación esfuerzo-mortalidad por pesca, y la capturabilidad. Se incluyen también en la función objetivo penalidades por curvatura para los parámetros de selectividad y penalidades por tasas extremas de mortalidad por pesca. Se usa la moda de la distribución posterior conjunta como estimación de los parámetros del modelo. Se calculan los intervalos de confianza usando el método de aproximación normal. Cabe destacar que el método de estimación incluye constreñimientos y distribuciones previas y por lo tanto los intervalos de confianza son diferentes de los intervalos de confianza calculados de forma tradicional. Se calculan puntos de referencia para el ordenamiento, y se realizan proyecciones a futuro para asesorar la toma de decisiones para el ordenamiento de las poblaciones de aleta amarilla y patudo.

A meta-analytic approach to quantifying scientific uncertainty in stock assessments

Quantifying scientific uncertainty when setting total allowable catch limits for fish stocks is a major challenge, but it is a requirement in the United States since changes to national fisheries legislation. Multiple sources of error are readily identifiable, including estimation error, model specification error, forecast error, and errors associated with the definition and estimation of reference points. Our focus here, however, is to quantify the influence of estimation error and model specification error on assessment outcomes. These are fundamental sources of uncertainty in developing scientific advice concerning appropriate catch levels and although a study of these two factors may not be inclusive, it is feasible with available information. For data-rich stock assessments conducted on the U.S. west coast we report approximate coefficients of variation in terminal biomass estimates from assessments based on inversion of the assessment of the model’s Hessian matrix (i.e., the asymptotic standard error). To summarize variation “among” stock assessments, as a proxy for model specification error, we characterize variation among multiple historical assessments of the same stock. Results indicate that for 17 groundfish and coastal pelagic species, the mean coefficient of variation of terminal biomass is 18%. In contrast, the coefficient of variation ascribable to model specification error (i.e., pooled among-assessment variation) is 37%. We show that if a precautionary probability of overfishing equal to 0.40 is adopted by managers, and only model specification error is considered, a 9% reduction in the overfishing catch level is indicated.

Analysis of sex-specific spawning biomass per recruit of the sailfish (Istiophorus platypterus) in the waters off eastern Taiwan

Analyses of sex-specific yield per recruit and spawning stock biomass per recruit were conducted to evaluate the current status of the sailfish (Istiophorus platypterus) fishery in the waters off eastern Taiwan. Natural mortality rates estimated from Pauly’s empirical equation were 0.26/yr for females and 0.27/yr for males. The current fishing mortality rates were estimated as 0.24/yr and 0.43/yr for females and males, respectively, which are much lower than the estimated F0 .1 (0.62/yr and 0.79/yr for females and males, respectively) and FSSB40 (0.46/yr for females) which are commonly used as target reference points in fisheries management. The effects of the fishing mortality, natural mortality, and age at first capture on the estimates of biological reference points were evaluated by using the Monte Carlo simulation. The results indicate that failure to consider the uncertainty in parameters such as natural mortality or age at first capture may lead to the improper estimation of biological reference points. This study indicates the possibility of current fishing mortality exceeding the target biological reference points may be negligible for sailfish in the waters off eastern Taiwan. However, in view of the recent rapid increase in fishing effort, it is evident that the stock status and development of the fishery need to be closely monitore

Biology and assessment of the painted sweetlips (Diagramma pictum (Thunberg, 1792)) and the spangled emperor (Lethrinus nebulosus (Forsskål, 1775)) in the southern Arabian Gulf

The population biology and status of the painted sweeplips (Diagramma pictum) and spangled emperor (Lethrinus nebulosus) in the southern Arabian Gulf were established by using a combination of size-frequency, biological, and size-at-age data. Transverse sections of sagittal otoliths were characterized by alternating translucent and opaque bands that were validated as annuli. Comparisons of growth characteristics showed that there were no significant differences (P>0.05) between sexes. There were well defined peaks in the reproductive cycle, spawning occurred from April to May for both species, and the mean size at which females attained sexual maturity was 31.8 cm fork length (LF) for D. pictum and 27.6 cm (LF) for L. nebulosus. The mean sizes at first capture (21.1 cm LF for D. pictum and 26.4 cm LF for L. nebulosus) were smaller than the sizes for both at first sexual maturity and those at which yield per recruit would be maximized. The range of fishing-induced mortality rates for D. pictum (0.37−0.62/yr) was substantially greater than the target (Fopt=0.07/yr) and limit (Flimit=0.09/ yr) estimates. The range of fishing-induced mortality rates for L. nebulosus (0.15/yr to 0.57/yr) was also in excess of biological reference points (Fopt=0.10/yr and Flimit=0.13/yr). In addition to growth overfishing, the stocks were considered to be recruitment overfished because the biomass per recruit was less than 20% of the unexploited levels for both species. The results of the study are important to fisheries management authorities in the region because they indicate that both a reduction in fishing effort and mesh-size regulations are required for the demersal trap fishery.

A catch-free stock assessment model with application to goliath grouper (Epinephelus itajara) off southern Florida

Many modern stock assessment methods provide the machinery for determining the status of a stock in relation to certain reference points and for estimating how quickly a stock can be rebuilt. However, these methods typically require catch data, which are not always available. We introduce a model-based framework for estimating reference points, stock status, and recovery times in situations where catch data and other measures of absolute abundance are unavailable. The specif ic estimator developed is essentially an age-structured production model recast in terms relative to pre-exploitation levels. A Bayesian estimation scheme is adopted to allow the incorporation of pertinent auxiliary information such as might be obtained from meta-analyses of similar stocks or anecdotal observations. The approach is applied to the population of goliath grouper (Epinephelus itajara) off southern Florida, for which there are three indices of relative abundance but no reliable catch data. The results confirm anecdotal accounts of a marked decline in abundance during the 1980s followed by a substantial increase after the harvest of goliath grouper was banned in 1990. The ban appears to have reduced fishing pressure to between 10% and 50% of the levels observed during the 1980s. Nevertheless, the predicted fishing mortality rate under the ban appears to remain substantial, perhaps owing to illegal harvest and depth-related release mortality. As a result, the base model predicts that there is less than a 40% chance that the spawning biomass will recover to a level that would produce a 50% spawning potential ratio.

An approach to the assessment of the finfish fisheries of the Caribbean Community

This paper briefly outlines the implications of making a decision on the most appropriate alternative for carrying out stock assessments and the reasons for previous failures to conserve finfish stocks for sustainable use. The Mathews (1987) approach utilizing Age-Length Catch-Effort Keys (ALCEK) is briefly reviewed, and a suggested overall approach for the assessment of the finfish resources of the Caribbean community is outlined. With recent initiatives towards use of the precautionary approach and reference points, Carribean community countries are advised to revisit the question of the models to be utilized for the assessment of their fish stocks, paying due attention to the quantity, quality and applicability of data now being collected.

Review of size- and age-dependence in batch spawning: implications for stock assessment of fish species exhibiting indeterminate fecundity

Most assessments of fish stocks use some measure of the reproductive potential of a population, such as spawning biomass. However, the correlation between spawning biomass and reproductive potential is not always strong, and it likely is weakest in the tropics and subtropics, where species tend to exhibit indeterminate fecundity and release eggs in batches over a protracted spawning season. In such cases, computing annual reproductive output requires estimates of batch fecundity and the annual number of batches—the latter subject to spawning frequency and duration of spawning season. Batch fecundity is commonly measured by age (or size), but these other variables are not. Without the relevant data, the annual number of batches is assumed to be invariant across age. We reviewed the literature and found that this default assumption lacks empirical support because both spawning duration and spawning frequency generally increase with age or size. We demonstrate effects of this assumption on measures of reproductive value and spawning potential ratio, a metric commonly used to gauge stock status. Model applications showed substantial sensitivity to age dependence in the annual number of batches. If the annual number of batches increases with age but is incorrectly assumed to be constant, stock assessment models would tend to overestimate the biological reference points used for setting harvest rates. This study underscores the need to better understand the age- or size-dependent contrast in the annual number of batches, and we conclude that, for species without evidence to support invariance, the default assumption should be replaced with one that accounts for age- or size-dependence.

Yield- and biomass-per-recruit analysis for rotational fisheries, with an application to the Atlantic sea scallop (Placopecten magellanicus)

A general model for yield-per-recruit analysis of rotational (periodic) fisheries is developed and applied to the sea scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) fishery of the northwest Atlantic. Rotational fishing slightly increases both yield- and biomass-per-recruit for sea scallops at FMAX. These quantities decline less quickly when fishing mortality is increased beyond FMAX than when fishing is at a constant rate. The improvement in biomass-per-recruit appears to be nearly independent of the selectivity pattern but increased size-at-entry can reduce or eliminate the yield-per-recruit advantage of rotation. Area closures and rotational fishing can cause difficulties with the use of standard spatially averaged fishing mortality metrics and reference points. The concept of temporally averaged fishing mortality is introduced as one that is more appropriate for sedentary resources when fishing mortality varies in time and space.

Consensus on homogeneous manifolds

The present paper considers distributed consensus algorithms for agents evolving on a connected compact homogeneous (CCH) manifold. The agents track no external reference and communicate their relative state according to an interconnection graph. The paper first formalizes the consensus problem for synchronization (i.e. maximizing the consensus) and balancing (i.e. minimizing the consensus); it thereby introduces the induced arithmetic mean, an easily computable mean position on CCH manifolds. Then it proposes and analyzes various consensus algorithms on manifolds: natural gradient algorithms which reach local consensus equilibria; an adaptation using auxiliary variables for almost-global synchronization or balancing; and a stochastic gossip setting for global synchronization. It closes by investigating the dependence of synchronization properties on the attraction function between interacting agents on the circle. The theory is also illustrated on SO(n) and on the Grassmann manifolds. ©2009 IEEE.

Consensus optimization on manifolds

The present paper considers distributed consensus algorithms that involve N agents evolving on a connected compact homogeneous manifold. The agents track no external reference and communicate their relative state according to a communication graph. The consensus problem is formulated in terms of the extrema of a cost function. This leads to efficient gradient algorithms to synchronize (i.e., maximizing the consensus) or balance (i.e., minimizing the consensus) the agents; a convenient adaptation of the gradient algorithms is used when the communication graph is directed and time-varying. The cost function is linked to a specific centroid definition on manifolds, introduced here as the induced arithmetic mean, that is easily computable in closed form and may be of independent interest for a number of manifolds. The special orthogonal group SO (n) and the Grassmann manifold Grass (p, n) are treated as original examples. A link is also drawn with the many existing results on the circle. © 2009 Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics.

Autonomous rigid body attitude synchronization

This paper studies some extensions to the decentralized attitude synchronization of identical rigid bodies. Considering fully actuated Euler equations, the communication links between the rigid bodies are limited and the available information is restricted to relative orientations and angular velocities. In particular, no leader nor external reference dictates the swarm's behavior. The control laws are derived using two classical approaches of nonlinear control - tracking and energy shaping. This leads to a comparison of two corresponding methods which are currently considered for distributed synchronization - consensus and stabilization of mechanical systems with symmetries. © 2007 IEEE.

Syntax-Based Analytic Reading of Musical Scores

As part of a larger research project in musical structure, a program has been written which "reads" scores encoded in an input language isomorphic to music notation. The program is believed to be the first of its kind. From a small number of parsing rules the program derives complex configurations, each of which is associated with a set of reference points in a numerical representation of a time-continuum. The logical structure of the program is such that all and only the defined classes of events are represented in the output. Because the basis of the program is syntactic (in the sense that parsing operations are performed on formal structures in the input string), many extensions and refinements can be made without excessive difficulty. The program can be applied to any music which can be represented in the input language. At present, however, it constitutes the first stage in the development of a set of analytic tools for the study of so-called atonal music, the revolutionary and little understood music which has exerted a decisive influence upon contemporary practice of the art. The program and the approach to automatic data-structuring may be of interest to linguists and scholars in other fields concerned with basic studies of complex structures produced by human beings.

Can prospect theory explain risk-seeking behavior by terminally ill patients?

Patients with life-threatening conditions sometimes appear to make risky treatment decisions as their condition declines, contradicting the risk-averse behavior predicted by expected utility theory. Prospect theory accommodates such decisions by describing how individuals evaluate outcomes relative to a reference point and how they exhibit risk-seeking behavior over losses relative to that point. The authors show that a patient's reference point for his or her health is a key factor in determining which treatment option the patient selects, and they examine under what circumstances the more risky option is selected. The authors argue that patients' reference points may take time to adjust following a change in diagnosis, with implications for predicting under what circumstances a patient may select experimental or conventional therapies or select no treatment.

Splintered memories or vivid landmarks? Qualities and organization of traumatic memories with and without PTSD

One hundred and eighty-one students answered a standardized questionnaire on Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD): 25 reported trauma(s) and indicated a pattern of after-effects that matched a PTSD symptom profile, whereas 88 indicated trauma(s) but no PTSD symptom profile. Both groups answered a questionnaire addressing the recollective quality, integration and coherence of the traumatic memory that currently affected them most. Participants with a PTSD symptom profile reported more vivid recollection of emotion and sensory impressions. They reported more observer perspective in the memory (seeing themselves 'from the outside'), but no more fragmentation. They also agreed more with the statement that the trauma had become part of their identity, and perceived more thematic connections between the trauma and current events in their lives. The two groups showed different patterns of correlations which indicated different coping styles. Overall, the findings suggest that traumas form dysfunctional reference points for the organization of other personal memories in people with PTSD symptoms, leading to fluctuations between vivid intrusions and avoidance. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.