The microstructure of the foreign exchange market:the determinants of bid-ask spreads in the foreign exchange market

The purpose of this thesis is to shed more light in the FX market microstructure by examining the determinants of bid-ask spread for three currencies pairs, the US dollar/Japanese yen, the British pound/US dollar and the Euro/US dollar in different time zones. I examine the commonality in liquidity with the elaboration of FX market microstructure variables in financial centres across the world (New York, London, Tokyo) based on the quotes of three exchange rate currency pairs over a ten-year period. I use GARCH (1,1) specifications, ICSS algorithm, and vector autoregression analysis to examine the effect of trading activity, exchange rate volatility and inventory holding costs on both quoted and relative spreads. ICSS algorithm results show that intraday spread series are much less volatile compared to the intraday exchange rate series as the number of change points obtained from ICSS algorithm is considerably lower. GARCH (1,1) estimation results of daily and intraday bid-ask spreads, show that the explanatory variables work better when I use higher frequency data (intraday results) however, their explanatory power is significantly lower compared to the results based on the daily sample. This suggests that although daily spreads and intraday spreads have some common determinants there are other factors that determine the behaviour of spreads at high frequencies. VAR results show that there are some differences in the behaviour of the variables at high frequencies compared to the results from the daily sample. A shock in the number of quote revisions has more effect on the spread when short term trading intervals are considered (intra-day) compared to its own shocks. When longer trading intervals are considered (daily) then the shocks in the spread have more effect on the future spread. In other words, trading activity is more informative about the future spread when intra-day trading is considered while past spread is more informative about the future spread when daily trading is considered

Interactions between landcover pattern and geospatial processing methods:effects on landscape metrics and classification accuracy

Remote sensing data is routinely used in ecology to investigate the relationship between landscape pattern as characterised by land use and land cover maps, and ecological processes. Multiple factors related to the representation of geographic phenomenon have been shown to affect characterisation of landscape pattern resulting in spatial uncertainty. This study investigated the effect of the interaction between landscape spatial pattern and geospatial processing methods statistically; unlike most papers which consider the effect of each factor in isolation only. This is important since data used to calculate landscape metrics typically undergo a series of data abstraction processing tasks and are rarely performed in isolation. The geospatial processing methods tested were the aggregation method and the choice of pixel size used to aggregate data. These were compared to two components of landscape pattern, spatial heterogeneity and the proportion of landcover class area. The interactions and their effect on the final landcover map were described using landscape metrics to measure landscape pattern and classification accuracy (response variables). All landscape metrics and classification accuracy were shown to be affected by both landscape pattern and by processing methods. Large variability in the response of those variables and interactions between the explanatory variables were observed. However, even though interactions occurred, this only affected the magnitude of the difference in landscape metric values. Thus, provided that the same processing methods are used, landscapes should retain their ranking when their landscape metrics are compared. For example, highly fragmented landscapes will always have larger values for the landscape metric "number of patches" than less fragmented landscapes. But the magnitude of difference between the landscapes may change and therefore absolute values of landscape metrics may need to be interpreted with caution. The explanatory variables which had the largest effects were spatial heterogeneity and pixel size. These explanatory variables tended to result in large main effects and large interactions. The high variability in the response variables and the interaction of the explanatory variables indicate it would be difficult to make generalisations about the impact of processing on landscape pattern as only two processing methods were tested and it is likely that untested processing methods will potentially result in even greater spatial uncertainty. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

Essays on firm behavior and firm performance

This dissertation comprises three individual chapters in an effort to examine different explanatory variables that affect firm performance. Chapter Two proposes an additional determinant of firm survival. Based on a detailed examination of firm survival in the British automobile industry between 1895 and 1970, we conclude that a firm's selection of submarket (defined by quality level) influenced survival. In contrast to findings for the US automobile industry, there is no evidence of first-mover advantage in the market as a whole. However, we do find evidence of first-mover advantage after conditioning on submarket choice. Chapter Three examines the effects of product line expansion on firm performance in terms of survival time. Based on a detailed examination of firm survival time in the British automobile industry between 1895 and 1970, we find that diversification exerts a positive effect on firm survival. Furthermore, our findings support the literature with respect to the impacts of submarket types, pre-entry experience, and timing of entry on firm survival time. Chapter Four examines corporate diversification in U.S. manufacturing and service firms. We develop measures of how related a firm's diverse activities are using input-output data and the NAILS classification to construct indexes of "vertical relatedness" and "complementarity". Strong relationships between these two measures are found. We utilize profitability and excess value as the measure for firm performance. Econometric analysis reveals that there is no relationship between the degree of relatedness of diversification and firm performance for the study period.

Avaliação das condicionalidades em saúde do Programa Bolsa Família

The programs of conditional cash transfer are widespread in developing countries in Latin America with emphasis on Brazil as a new paradigm in social p olicies for poverty eradication . Consist of transferring monetary funds from the government directly to poor families by fulfilling the condition alities on education and health . In health, even wi th variations between countries , conditionality targeting public pregnant women and children with a view to improving health indic ators maternoinfantil as growth , infant mortality and prenatal care. The objectives of this study are to compare the transfer progr am conditional Brazilian income , the Family and similar programs in Latin A merica in relation to it s effects on growth in children , and to evaluate the effect of Bolsa Família in the prevalence of use of services ( conditionalities ) of prenatal care in Brazilian health services whose teams joined the Programa de Acesso e Melhoria da Qualidade da Atenção Básica (PMAQ - AB) . For the first objective a systematic review , we selec ted ten articles between 1007 ( one thousand and seven ) found in the databases Embase , PubMed, Scopus , Scielo and Lilacs databases was performed . Articles are ob servational epidemiological studies of transverse descriptive and analytical types of cohort and case - co ntrol. For the second objective, for it is a prevalence study , a statistical analysis using Poisson regression with robust variance was performed to i nvestigate how the prevalence of compliance with conditionalities on health was influenced b y various explanatory variables . Ratios , crude and adjusted prevalence , with their respective confidence i ntervals of 95 % were estimated . The family joined the sch olarship program was considered as the main expo sure variable . Confounding variables were: maternal age , race / color, paid employment , marital status and region of residence . In d ata analysis software R 3.0.1 (RDevelopment Core Team 2013 ) was used . Rega rding the comparison of the Bolsa Família with other programs in Latin America , the review found similar results regarding the positive effect of income transfer in the nutritional status o f beneficiary children programs , and these effects are more evident in children under two years old and belonging to familie s of lower socioeconomic status . For the prevalence of conditionalities entres different groups of users of the Bolsa Família and nonusers results showed no statistically significant difference betwe en respondents (with children under two years ) registered and not registered in PBF on issues relating to: me et at least six prenatal visits , meet and participate in health education activities . It follows from side to increase minimum income for families in extreme poverty showed positive impact on children's health in Brazil and Latin America. The o ther is not confirmed in Brazil , an increase in conditionality expressed in use of primary care by the user s of the Bolsa Família services.

Ecological stoichiometry controls the transformation and retention of plant-derived organic matter to humus in response to nitrogen fertilisation

Carbon (C) sequestration in soils is a means for increasing soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and is a potential tool for climate change mitigation. One recommended management practice to increase SOC stocks is nitrogen (N) fertilisation, however examples of positive, negative or null SOC effects in response to N addition exist. We evaluated the relative importance of plant molecular structure, soil physical properties and soil ecological stoichiometry in explaining the retention of SOC with and without N addition. We tracked the transformation of 13C pulse-labelled buffel grass (Cenchrus ciliaris L.), wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and lucerne (Medicago sativa L.) material to the <53 μm silt + clay soil organic C fraction, hereafter named “humus”, over 365-days of incubation in four contrasting agricultural soils, with and without urea-N addition. We hypothesised that: a) humus retention would be soil and litter dependent; b) humus retention would be litter independent once litter C:N ratios were standardised with urea-N addition; and c) humus retention would be improved by urea-N addition. Two and three-way factorial analysis of variance indicated that 13C humus was consistently soil and litter dependent, even when litter C:N ratios were standardised, and that the effect of urea-N addition on 13C humus was also soil and litter dependent. A boosted regression analysis of the effect of 44 plant and soil explanatory variables demonstrated that soil biological and chemical properties had the greatest relative influence on 13C humus. Regression tree analyses demonstrated that the greatest gains in 13C humus occurred in soils of relatively low total organic C, dissolved organic C and microbial biomass C (MBC), or with a combination of relatively high MBC and low C:N ratio. The greatest losses in 13C humus occurred in soils with a combination of relatively high MBC and low total N or increasing C:N ratio. We conclude that soil variables involved in soil ecological stoichiometry exert a greater relative influence on incorporating organic matter as humus compared to plant molecular structure and soil physical properties. Furthermore, we conclude that the effect of N fertilisation on humus retention is dependent upon soil ecological stoichiometry.

Efeitos diretos e indiretos de parâmetros dos semivariogramas referentes aos atributos químicos do solo sobre a produtividade de grãos de soja

In order to add value to soybens crops, and hence the marketing, medium and large producers have been using precision agriculture techniques (PA), as the Remote Sensing, Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and positioning satellite, to assist the management of crops. Thus, given the economic relevance of that culture to the southwest of Paraná State and Brazil, scientific studies to increase their productivity and profitability are of main importance. The objective of this study was to evaluate the correlation between the chemical soil properties and soybean yield for each estimated parameter of semivariogram (range, nugget and level effect), and the deployment of these correlations in direct and indirect effects, aiming to improve the mapping process of spatial variability of soil chemical properties for use in PA. The hypothesis is that not all attributes of soil used to estimate the semivariogram parameters has a direct effect on productivity, and that even in groups of plants within a larger area it is possible to estimate the parameters of the semivariograms. The experiment was conducted in a commercial area of 19.7 ha, located in the city of Pato Branco - PR, central geographic coordinates 26º 11 '35 "South, 52 43' 05" West longitude, and average altitude of 780 m. The area is planted with soybeans for over 30 years, currently being adopted to cultivate Brasmax Target RR - Don Mario 5.9i, with row spacing of 0.50 m and 13 plants m-1, totaling 260,000 plants ha-1. For georeferencing of the area of study and sampling points was used a couple of topographic ProMarkTM3 receptors, making a relative positioning to obtain the georeferenced coordinates. To collect data (chemical analyzes of soil and crop yield) were sampled 10 blocks in the experimental area, each with an area of 20 m2 (20 meters long x 1 meter wide) containing two spaced adjacent rows of 0.5 m. Each block was divided into 20 portions of 1 m2, and from each were collected four subsamples at a distance of 0.5 m in relation to the lines of blocks, making up a sample depth for 0-10 cm a sample to 10-20 cm for each plot, totaling 200 samples for each depth. The soybean crop was performed on the blocks depending on maturity, and in each block was considered a bundle at each meter. In the data analysis, it was performed a diagnosis of multicollinearity, and subsequently a path analysis of the main variables according to the explanatory variables (range of chemical attributes: pH, K, P, Ca, etc.). The results obtained by the path analysis of the parameters of the semivariogram of soil chemical properties, indicated that only the Fe, Mg, Mn, organic matter (OM), P and Saturation by bases (SB) exerted direct and indirect effects on soybean productivity, although they have not presented spatial variability, indicating that the distribution of blocks in the area was unable to identify the spatial dependence of these elements, making it impossible to draw up maps of the chemical attributes for use in PA.

As rodovias e as aves de rapina nocturnas relação entre a densidade, o habitat e a mortalidade

As estradas e tráfego inerente surgem como a criação antrópica mais conspícua e penetrante na paisagem natural, sendo considerados os principais agentes causadores de fragmentação e destruição de habitats, assim como representam um obstáculo físico sem precedentes, limitando as relações directas entre os indivíduos, por diminuição da frequência de dispersão e aumento da mortalidade por atropelamento, impedindo o fluxo natural de genes e suscitando o aumento de fenómenos de inbreeding e perda de heterozigotia. Todos os impactes deletérios associados às rodovias são claramente perceptíveis em vertebrados, onde as aves de rapinas nocturnas não são excepção. Uma vez que estas rapaces beneficiam das suas bermas e orlas, como locais de poiso, nidificação ou como corredores de dispersão através da paisagem, são frequentemente vítimas de mortalidade por atropelamento em estradas, sendo esta problemática considerada actualmente uma das mais recentes e importantes formas de mortalidade não natural em rapinas nocturnas e vinculada como um dos maiores problemas de conservação que afecta este grupo. Não obstante, esse mútuo efeito de atracção/repulsa das estradas a estas rapaces, as rodovias criam uma barreira específica que limita a dinâmica, comportamento e densidade populacional das espécies residentes, reconhecendo-se que o isolamento daí resultante, pode comprometer a viabilidade populacional a longo prazo, podendo mesmo conduzir a altos riscos de extinção das populações locais devido a efeitos estocásticos. Mediante esta problemática, este trabalho debruçou-se sobre um único objectivo principal: a avaliação do impacte das rodovias e do tráfego, na densidade das aves de rapina nocturnas. Este estudo foi efectuado na região Alentejana, abrangendo uma área de cariz tipicamente mediterrânico, delimitada pelas localidades de Montemor-o-Novo, Arraiolos e Évora, sendo seccionada por 143 quilómetros de estradas, divididas em autoestrada, rodovias com elevada e reduzida densidade de tráfego. A monitorização das rapinas nocturnas foi conduzida em dois anos amostrais (2005 e 2007), tendo sido focalizada sobretudo em duas espécies de Strigiformes, a Coruja­ do-mato Strix aluco e o Mocho-galego Athene noctua, recorrendo ao uso de playbacks com reprodução de vocalizações de indivíduos conspecíficos. Foram usadas 32 variáveis explicativas integradas em três grandes grupos: variáveis de estrada, métricas da paisagem, uso do solo, tendo sido analiticamente testadas, recorrendo à aplicação de Modelos Lineares Generalizados. Os principais resultados obtidos demonstram que as variáveis de estrada, aliadas à densidade de tráfego e ruído inerente à sua circulação, são provavelmente, responsáveis por um comportamento de repulsa das espécies de aves de rapina nocturnas em estudo, apresentando estas densidades mais elevadas longe de áreas antropicamente perturbadas e, portanto, de menor qualidade que se encontram adjacentes às rodovias. Todavia a presença de habitat favorável a estas rapaces é provavelmente o descritor com maior poder estatístico no que concerne à sua distribuição e densidade, sendo os montados densos e a presença de zonas agrícolas de sequeiro, positivamente correlacionadas, respectivamente com a densidade de casais reprodutores de Coruja-do-mato e Mocho-galego. Mediante a observação dos resultados será veemente a aplicação de medidas de mitigação específicas, que fundamentalmente considerem o afastamento dos efectivos populacionais longe das estradas e tráfego, conservando e assegurando as características estruturais, requisitos e qualidade dos habitats, de modo a incrementar e garantir a viabilidade e densidade das populações, fidelizando a territorialidade e permanência destas aves nestas áreas. Adicionalmente deverá investir-se na conectividade das manchas de paisagem fragmentada pelas rodovias, criando opções de conservação estratégicas, em zonas ecologicamente mais sensíveis, que não somente minimizem o efeito de repulsa reconhecido nestas aves, mas também os níveis de mortalidade por atropelamento, tornando os ecossistemas mais funcionais para a sobrevivência destes rapaces. ABSTRACT; Roads and traffic are the most conspicuous and pervasive human creation, being the great responsible for fragmentation and habitats destruction, reducing animal movement through landscape, which implies decrease of gene flow and loss of variability that can fragmented populations, thus reducing their sizes and densities. All deleterious impacts associated with roads are clearly visible in vertebrates, where owls aren't exception, being frequent victims of road mortality, since they can use roadside habitats and edges for hunting, nesting or dispersal corridors through the landscape, being nowadays one of the most recent and important causes of non­natural mortality in owls and has been recognized as one of the largest conservation problems affecting this group. However, the attractive and avoidance effect of roads and his edges on owls creates a barrier effect that limits dynamics, behaviour and breeding density of resident species, recognizing that possible isolation, could compromise populations survival, make them more vulnerable to high risks of local extinction due to stochastic effects. Despite that, several authors suggest that owls use roads to hunt, as marginal habitats, or for navigation corridors through the landscape ln this context, the major aims of this study was to verify if there are negative effects of roads on the density of owls, considering traffic as an influencing factor. This study was conducted in Alentejo, covering a typical Mediterranean area, including three main localities Montemor-o-Novo, Évora and Arraiolos, being sectioned by 143 km of roads, including highway, roads with high traffic density, and the remaining with low traffic density. The owl census was conducted in two sampling years (2005 and 2007) and was focused mainly on Little owl Athene noctua and Tawny Owl Strix aluco species, using the playback technique, with conspecific calls. We used 32 explanatory variables, mainly included in three groups: road variables, landscape metrics and land use, having been analytically tested, with application of Generalised Linear Models. The main results show that noisy roads with high traffic density are probably the most responsible for the avoidance behaviour of owls, under the study area, showing density depression near high anthropogenic disturbed areas adjacent to roads. However, the presence of habitat quality to these birds is probably the descriptor with greater statistical power, considering its distribution and density, with the dense oak woodland and croplands and arable lands, positively correlated, respectively with Tawny owl and Little owl density. ln consequence, the great conservation effort should be done in order to keep breeding populations away from roads and traffic, ensuring the structural features, requirements and quality of its habitats in order to enhance and ensure the viability and density of owl's populations in these areas. ln addition, it is important to invest in connectivity between roadside fragmented patches, creating strategic conservation options, in sensitive areas, which minimize the avoidance effect, recognized in owls, but also road-kill levels, making ecosystems more functional to survival of these top predators.

Flowers of Gomphrena globosa L. as an alternatve source of betacyanins: optimization of the extraction using response surface methodology

Betacyanins are betalain pigments that display a red-violet colour which have been reported to be three times stronger than the red-violet dye produced by anthocyanins [1]. The applications of betacyanins cover a wide range of matrices, mainly as additives or ingredients in the food industry, cosmetics, pharmaceuticals and livestock feed. Although, being less commonly used than anthocyanins and carotenoids, betacyanins are stable between pH 3 to 7 and suitable for colouring in low acid matrices. In addition, betacyanins have been reported to display interesting medicinal character as powerful antioxidant and chemopreventive compounds either in vitro or in vivo models [2]. Betacyanins are obtained mainly from the red beet of Beta vulgaris plant (between I 0 to 20 mg per I 00 g pulp) but alternative primary sources are needed [3]. In addition, independently of the source used, the effect of the variables that affect the extraction of betacyanins have not been properly described and quantified. Therefore, the aim of this study was to identifY and optimize the conditions that maximize betacyanins extraction using the tepals of Gomphrena globosa L. flowers as an alternative source. Assisted by the statistical technique of response surface methodology, an experimental design was developed for testing the significant explanatory variables of the extraction (time, temperature, solid-liquid ratio and ethanolwater ratio). The identification was performed using high-performance liquid chromatography coupled with a photodiode array detector and mass spectrometry with electron spray ionization (HPLC-PDAMS/ ESI) and the response was measured by the quantification of these compounds using HPLC-PDA. Afterwards, a response surface analysis was performed to evaluate the results. The major betacyanin compounds identified were gomphrenin 11 and Ill and isogomphrenin IJ and Ill. The highest total betacyanins content was obtained by using the following conditions: 45 min of extraction. time, 35•c, 35 g/L of solid-liquid ratio and 25% of ethanol. These values would not be found without optimizing the conditions of the betacyanins extraction, which moreover showed contrary trends to what it has been described in the scientific bibliography. More specifically, concerning the time and temperature variables, an increase of both values (from the common ones used in the bibliography) showed a considerable improvement on the betacyanins extraction yield without displaying any type of degradation patterns.

El ser y el tener de los habitantes de la ciudad de Medellín como determinantes de la satisfacción con la vida

El presente estudio tiene como objetivo encontrar y analizar los efectos causales de diversos factores socioeconómicos y demográficos en la satisfacción con la vida de los hogares de Medellín. Para ello, se estima un modelo logístico, categorizando en dos grupos las variables explicativas: los aspectos inherentes al ser y las características relacionadas al tener. Los principales resultados sugieren que estar soltero en relación con otro estado civil tiene un efecto negativo en el bienestar subjetivo, así como el hecho de ser afrodescendiente con respecto a otro grupo étnico. Por el lado del tener, cabe resaltar que mayores niveles de educación y estratos socioeconómicos más altos incrementan el bienestar subjetivo. Se concluye que tanto las características del ser como las del tener son fundamentales para explicar la satisfacción con la vida, y por tanto, para la toma de decisiones de política pública.

A Bayesian approach to study the risk variables for tuberculosis occurrence in domestic and wild ungulates in South Central Spain

BACKGROUND Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is a chronic infectious disease mainly caused by Mycobacterium bovis. Although eradication is a priority for the European authorities, bTB remains active or even increasing in many countries, causing significant economic losses. The integral consideration of epidemiological factors is crucial to more cost-effectively allocate control measures. The aim of this study was to identify the nature and extent of the association between TB distribution and a list of potential risk factors regarding cattle, wild ungulates and environmental aspects in Ciudad Real, a Spanish province with one of the highest TB herd prevalences. RESULTS We used a Bayesian mixed effects multivariable logistic regression model to predict TB occurrence in either domestic or wild mammals per municipality in 2007 by using information from the previous year. The municipal TB distribution and endemicity was clustered in the western part of the region and clearly overlapped with the explanatory variables identified in the final model: (1) incident cattle farms, (2) number of years of veterinary inspection of big game hunting events, (3) prevalence in wild boar, (4) number of sampled cattle, (5) persistent bTB-infected cattle farms, (6) prevalence in red deer, (7) proportion of beef farms, and (8) farms devoted to bullfighting cattle. CONCLUSIONS The combination of these eight variables in the final model highlights the importance of the persistence of the infection in the hosts, surveillance efforts and some cattle management choices in the circulation of M. bovis in the region. The spatial distribution of these variables, together with particular Mediterranean features that favour the wildlife-livestock interface may explain the M. bovis persistence in this region. Sanitary authorities should allocate efforts towards specific areas and epidemiological situations where the wildlife-livestock interface seems to critically hamper the definitive bTB eradication success.

Trends in NE Atlantic landings (southern Portugal): identifying the relative importance of fisheries and environmental variables

Time series of commercial landings from the Algarve (southern Portugal) from 1982 to 1999 were analyzed using min/max autocorrelation factor analysis (MAFA) and dynamic factor analysis (DFA). These techniques were used to identify trends and explore the relationships between the response variables (annual landings of 12 species) and explanatory variables [sea surface temperature, rainfall, an upwelling index, Guadiana river (south-east Portugal) flow, the North Atlantic oscillation, the number of licensed fishing vessels and the number of commercial fishermen]. Landings were more highly correlated with non-lagged environmental variables and in particular with Guadiana river flow. Both techniques gave coherent results, with the most important trend being a steady decline over time. A DFA model with two explanatory variables (Guadiana river flow and number of fishermen) and three common trends (smoothing functions over time) gave good fits to 10 of the 12 species. Results of other models indicated that river flow is the more important explanatory variable in this model. Changes in the mean flow and discharge regime of the Guadiana river resulting from the construction of the Alqueva dam, completed in 2002, are therefore likely to have a significant and deleterious impact on Algarve fisheries landings.

EVALUACIÓN DEL RIESGO ANTE INCENDIOS FORESTALES EN LA CUENCA DEL RÍO TEMPISQUE, COSTA RICA

Los incendios forestales constituyen problemas que ocasionan grandes daños ambientales sobre los ecosistemas, uno de los mayores impactos en el ambiente son los efectos sobre el cambio climático, situación que acentúa los problemas globales que atentan la vida sobre el planeta. Notoriamente, se reconoce que los incendios son un agente constante de cambios sobre los paisajes naturales y por tanto su estudio reviste importancia, ya que afectan de una manera notable la vegetación, la fauna, el suelo y aumentan el peligro de desertificación, lo que conlleva a los problemas socioeconómicos. Este artículo tiene por objetivo determinar el riesgo ante incendios forestales en la cuenca del Río Tempisque en Costa Rica, a partir de variables explicativas como la proximidad a carreteras, tipos de usos de la tierra, focos de incendios, insolación y altitud sobre el nivel de mar, modeladas con técnicas de Evaluación Multicriterio (ECM) en un Sistema de Información Geográfica (SIG).Dado que el concepto riesgo se refiere a una condición de probabilidad, en este artículo se recrea escenarios en donde podría tener lugar el fuego, los cuales se correlacionan con eventos que se han presentando en años anteriores. Se debe advertir que no se considera la variable viento como factor dispersor del fuego, ya que el objetivo es determinar lugares con condición favorable a incendio sin mediar los factores que contribuyen en su distribución.Palabras claves: incendio forestal, problema ambiental, riesgo, modelaje, sistemas de información geográfica y evaluación multicriterio.AbstractForest fires are problems that cause environmental damage to ecosystems. One of the biggest impacts is on the atmosphere and their effects on climatic change, a situation that exacerbates globalproblems perpetrated on planet life. Historically, fires are recognized as a constant agent of change Julio César Moraga Peralta Evaluación del riesgo ante incendios forestalesen la cuenca del río Tempisque, Costa Rica on the natural landscape. Therefore, fire studies are important because of the significant effect of fire on vegetation, fauna and soils and the increased danger of desertification, leading to socioeconomicproblems.This article has as its objective to determine the risk before forest fires on the Tempisque RiverBasin in Costa Rica from explanatory variables such as proximity to roads, types of land uses, fireoutbreaks, isolation and altitude above sea level, using Multicriteria Evaluation (NDE) modeling techniques in a Geographic Information System.As the term risk refers to a condition of probability, this article recreates scenarios where a fire could occur, which correlate with events that have occurred in previous years. It should be noted that the variable of wind is not considered as a fire-scattering factor since the objective of this study is to identify places with conditions already favorable to fires without a contributing factor in their distribution.Key words: forest fire, environmental problems, risk, geographical information system, multicriteria evaluation modeling, Tempisque River Basin, Costa Rica

INCIDENCIA DE LA ZONIFICACIÓN DEL TERRITORIO EN LOS FACTORES EXPLICATIVOS DEL CRECIMIENTO URBANO DE LA COMUNIDAD DE MADRID

Se presenta un análisis de los posibles factores explicativos del crecimiento urbano en la Comunidad de Madrid durante el período 1990-2000, incluyendo la zonificación de la región en relación a las coronas metropolitanas en torno a la ciudad de Madrid. Se analizan las categorías estructura urbana laxa, urbanizaciones exentas y zonas industriales y comerciales establecidas en la cartografía de usos del suelo Corine Land Cover. Como factores explicativos del cambio se tomaron variables socioeconómicas, biofísicas, de planificación legal, políticas y de proximidad/accesibilidad, medidas en cada píxel del territorio. El análisis de la relación entre las variables explicativas y el crecimiento urbano se llevó a cabo a través de la regresión logística. Los resultados obtenidos del ajuste de los modelos mostró la relevancia de algunas variables en la explicación de la localización del crecimiento de las categorías urbanas analizadas.Palabras Clave: crecimiento urbano, variables explicativas, regresión logística, Corine Land Cover,MadridABSTRACTThis paper presents an analysis of the possible explanatory factors of urban growth in Madrid, Spain during the period 1990-2000, including the zoning of the region in relation to the metropolitan area around the city. Specifically, two categories were analyzed: residential discontinuous urban andresidential discontinuous sparse urban, and commercial and industrial of the Corine Land Cover. Previous analysis of Corine Land Cover land use change identified these categories as having the largest growth during the study period. Socio-economic, biophysical, legal planning, policies andproximity/accessibility variables were taken into account as explanatory factors of urban growth, at pixel level. Logistic regression was used to analyze the relationship between explanatory variables and urban growth. The results obtained from the model adjustments showed the relevance of somevariables in explaining the location of urban growth in the categories analyzed.Keyword: GIS, urban growth, explanatory factors, logistic regression, Corine Land Cover, Madrid,Spain 

Aleitamento materno, alimentação complementar, sobrepeso e obesidade em pré-escolares

OBJETIVO: Analisar a associação do sobrepeso e da obesidade com o aleitamento materno e a alimentação complementar em pré-escolares. MÉTODOS: Estudo transversal envolvendo 566 crianças matriculadas em escolas particulares no município de São Paulo, SP, 2004-2005. A variável dependente foi sobrepeso e obesidade. Para a classificação do estado nutricional das crianças foram utilizadas as curvas de percentis do Índice de Massa Corporal para idade, classificando como sobrepeso valores e"P85 e

Introdução de alimentos complementares nos primeiros dois anos de vida de crianças de escolas particulares no município de São Paulo

OBJETIVOS: Verificar a idade de introdução de alimentos complementares nos primeiros dois anos de vida e sua relação com variáveis demográficas e socioeconômicas de crianças matriculadas em pré-escolas particulares do município de São Paulo. MÉTODOS: Estudo transversal com informações demográficas e socioeconômicas de 566 crianças, sendo verificada a idade em meses de introdução dos alimentos complementares. Foi considerada como variável dependente a idade em meses da introdução dos alimentos complementares e, como variáveis independentes ou explanatórias, a idade e escolaridade maternas, a condição de trabalho materno e a renda familiar. Para análise da relação entre as variáveis, utilizou-se a técnica de regressão múltipla de Cox. RESULTADOS: 50% das crianças eram do sexo masculino e 61% maiores de 4 anos. A maior proporção das mães tinha nível superior de escolaridade e trabalhava fora. A renda familiar mostrou uma população de alto nível socioeconômico. A água e/ou chá, frutas e leite não-materno foram introduzidos antes do sexto mês de vida. A variável 'idade da mãe' mostrou associação com introdução de três grupos de alimentos: cereais, carne e guloseimas. CONCLUSÃO: Alimentos complementares foram introduzidos precocemente nessa população de nível socioeconômico elevado e a única variável que se associou à introdução desses alimentos foi a idade materna.