Robot navigation in dense crowds : statistical models and experimental studies of human robot cooperation

This thesis explores the problem of mobile robot navigation in dense human crowds. We begin by considering a fundamental impediment to classical motion planning algorithms called the freezing robot problem: once the environment surpasses a certain level of complexity, the planner decides that all forward paths are unsafe, and the robot freezes in place (or performs unnecessary maneuvers) to avoid collisions. Since a feasible path typically exists, this behavior is suboptimal. Existing approaches have focused on reducing predictive uncertainty by employing higher fidelity individual dynamics models or heuristically limiting the individual predictive covariance to prevent overcautious navigation. We demonstrate that both the individual prediction and the individual predictive uncertainty have little to do with this undesirable navigation behavior. Additionally, we provide evidence that dynamic agents are able to navigate in dense crowds by engaging in joint collision avoidance, cooperatively making room to create feasible trajectories. We accordingly develop interacting Gaussian processes, a prediction density that captures cooperative collision avoidance, and a "multiple goal" extension that models the goal driven nature of human decision making. Navigation naturally emerges as a statistic of this distribution.

Most importantly, we empirically validate our models in the Chandler dining hall at Caltech during peak hours, and in the process, carry out the first extensive quantitative study of robot navigation in dense human crowds (collecting data on 488 runs). The multiple goal interacting Gaussian processes algorithm performs comparably with human teleoperators in crowd densities nearing 1 person/m², while a state of the art noncooperative planner exhibits unsafe behavior more than 3 times as often as the multiple goal extension, and twice as often as the basic interacting Gaussian process approach. Furthermore, a reactive planner based on the widely used dynamic window approach proves insufficient for crowd densities above 0.55 people/m². We also show that our noncooperative planner or our reactive planner capture the salient characteristics of nearly any dynamic navigation algorithm. For inclusive validation purposes, we show that either our non-interacting planner or our reactive planner captures the salient characteristics of nearly any existing dynamic navigation algorithm. Based on these experimental results and theoretical observations, we conclude that a cooperation model is critical for safe and efficient robot navigation in dense human crowds.

Finally, we produce a large database of ground truth pedestrian crowd data. We make this ground truth database publicly available for further scientific study of crowd prediction models, learning from demonstration algorithms, and human robot interaction models in general.

Planejamento de recursos hídricos de áreas rurais degradadas: aplicação do modelo SWAT em bacia hidrográfica experimental na região Noroeste do Estado do Rio de Janeiro.

A degradação ambiental do Noroeste do Estado do Rio de Janeiro tem se intensificado nas últimas décadas devido às práticas agrícolas não preservacionistas. Esta situação, que decorre do uso inadequado do solo, tem implicado em mudanças na oferta hídrica em grau variável nos municípios da região com prejuízos econômicos nas atividades dos pequenos e médios proprietários rurais e na qualidade de vida. A abordagem para enfrentar problemas deste tipo depende da participação efetiva das instâncias de governo e dos órgãos responsáveis pela gestão dos recursos hídricos. No âmbito da hidrologia os modelos hidrológicos com base no uso e ocupação do solo são ferramentas que podem auxiliar com ótimo custo e benefício a geração de informações em bacias hidrográficas, instrumentadas ou não. Os modelos são úteis ao planejamento e à tomada de decisão por possibilitarem a previsão de vazões e simulação de cenários sobre o uso do solo e qualidade da água. Neste sentido, o presente estudo pretende dar sua contribuição ao avaliar a adequabilidade do modelo SWAT simular o processo chuva-vazão na microbacia experimental de Santa Maria e Cambiocó, com 13,5 km2, localizada na região hidrográfica do rio Muriaé, afluente do rio Paraíba do Sul. O SWAT tem sido empregado em bacias agrícolas nos EUA, na Europa e, atualmente, na China, sudeste asiático e Irã, entre outros países, e na última década maior inserção no meio acadêmico brasileiro. A versão 2005 do modelo foi utilizada por meio da sua interface SIG para simular as vazões médias diárias com base na precipitação medida no intervalo de 15 minutos no período de 2005/2006. As vazões simuladas foram comparadas com as vazões observadas no exutório da microbacia. Foram testadas as ferramentas de análise de sensibilidade e autocalibração. O método de calibração manual foi usado para o ajuste por tentativa e erro. Os parâmetros ajustados corresponderam ao CN2 e ESCO. Os valores obtidos na calibração para os coeficientes estatísticos R2, NSE, PBIAS e RSR foram 0,80, 0,80, 7,02 e 0,45, respectivamente, indicando escore muito bom, o que foi confirmado pela inspeção dos hidrogramas. As saídas validadas para período diferente da calibração forneceram para os mesmos coeficientes os valores 0,84, 0,80, 25,92 e 0,44. Os dois primeiros, com escore muito bom. O valor de PBIAS, no limite do satisfatório, e RSR, muito bom. O desempenho permitiu concluir que a simulação com o SWAT foi adequada. Em relação às pesquisas que têm sido realizadas no Brasil os valores obtidos para os indicadores foram semelhantes, indicando a capacidade do modelo para novos estudos nesta microbacia que considerem os usos consuntivos e cenários de uso do solo.

Joint experimental and numerical approach to three-dimensional shock control bump research

Previous studies of transonic shock control bumps have often been either numerical or experimental. Comparisons between the two have been hampered by the limitations of either approach. The present work aims to bridge the gap between computational fluid dynamics and experiment by planning a joint approach from the outset. This enables high-quality validation data to be produced and ensures that the conclusions of either aspect of the study are directly relevant to the application. Experiments conducted with bumps mounted on the floor of a blowdown tunnel were modified to include an additional postshock adverse pressure gradient through the use of a diffuser as well as introducing boundary-layer suction ahead of the test section to enable the in-flow boundary layer to be manipulated. This has the advantage of being an inexpensive and highly repeatable method. Computations were performed on a standard airfoil model, with the flight conditions as free parameters. The experimental and computational setups were then tuned to produce baseline conditions that agree well, enabling confidence that the experimental conclusions are relevant. The methods are then applied to two different shock control bumps: a smoothly contoured bump, representative of previous studies, and a novel extended geometry featuring a continuously widening tail, which spans the wind-tunnel width at the rear of the bump. Comparison between the computational and experimental results for the contour bump showed good agreement both with respect to the flow structures and quantitative analysis of the boundary-layer parameters. It was seen that combining the experimental and numerical data could provide valuable insight into the flow physics, which would not generally be possible for a one-sided approach. The experiments and computational fluid dynamics were also seen to agree well for the extended bump geometry, providing evidence that, even though thebumpinteracts directly with the wind-tunnel walls, it was still possible to observe the key flow physics. The joint approach is thus suitable even for wider bump geometries. Copyright © 2013 by S. P. Colliss, H. Babinsky, K. Nubler, and T. Lutz. Published by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Inc.

Experimental investigation on TBAB clathrate hydrate slurry flows in a horizontal tube: Forced convective heat transfer behaviors

Tetra-n-butyl-ammonium bromide (TBAB) clathrate hydrate slurry (CHS) is one kind of secondary refrigerants, which is promising to be applied into air-conditioning or latent-heat transportation systems as a thermal storage or cold carrying medium for energy saving. It is a solid-liquid two phase mixture which is easy to produce and has high latent heat and good fluidity. In this paper, the heat transfer characteristics of TBAB slurry were investigated in a horizontal stainless steel tube under different solid mass fractions and flow velocities with constant heat flux. One velocity region of weakened heat transfer was found. Moreover, TBAB CHS was treated as a kind of Bingham fluids, and the influences of the solid particles, flow velocity and types of flow on the forced convective heat transfer coefficients of TBAB CHS were investigated. At last, criterial correlations of Nusselt number for laminar and turbulent flows in the form of power function were summarized, and the error with experimental results was within 20%.

On trip planning queries in spatial databases

In this paper we discuss a new type of query in Spatial Databases, called Trip Planning Query (TPQ). Given a set of points P in space, where each point belongs to a category, and given two points s and e, TPQ asks for the best trip that starts at s, passes through exactly one point from each category, and ends at e. An example of a TPQ is when a user wants to visit a set of different places and at the same time minimize the total travelling cost, e.g. what is the shortest travelling plan for me to visit an automobile shop, a CVS pharmacy outlet, and a Best Buy shop along my trip from A to B? The trip planning query is an extension of the well-known TSP problem and therefore is NP-hard. The difficulty of this query lies in the existence of multiple choices for each category. In this paper, we first study fast approximation algorithms for the trip planning query in a metric space, assuming that the data set fits in main memory, and give the theory analysis of their approximation bounds. Then, the trip planning query is examined for data sets that do not fit in main memory and must be stored on disk. For the disk-resident data, we consider two cases. In one case, we assume that the points are located in Euclidean space and indexed with an Rtree. In the other case, we consider the problem of points that lie on the edges of a spatial network (e.g. road network) and the distance between two points is defined using the shortest distance over the network. Finally, we give an experimental evaluation of the proposed algorithms using synthetic data sets generated on real road networks.

Competence in research planning in the fourth level of Spanish Secondary Education: a case study

In the last years, “Inquiry-Based Science Education” methodologies (IBSE) are being recommended by European institutions in order to improve the competence levels and the attitudes towards science of primary and secondary school students. Therefore, the aim of this study is to test the effectiveness of an IBSE methodology, the Methodology of Problem Solving as an Investigation (MPSI), for the teaching-learning process of planning of experiments in the fourth level of Spanish Secondary Education. By means of the students’ solutions for a series of open problems, the progress in the learning of the competences related to the planning of experiments has been analyzed, along with the influence of the methodology on the development of these competencies. The results show a students’ command from higher to lower levels on: emission of hypothesis, design of the experiment, qualitative analysis, identification of variables and reformulation of the open problem. Furthermore, the Methodology has contributed to an improvement of the scientific competence in the area of planning experiments.

Reducing Uncertainty in Aeroelastic Flutter Boundaries Using Experimental Data

Flutter prediction as currently practiced is usually deterministic, with a single structural model used to represent an aircraft. By using interval analysis to take into account structural variability, recent work has demonstrated that small changes in the structure can lead to very large changes in the altitude at which
utter occurs (Marques, Badcock, et al., J. Aircraft, 2010). In this follow-up work we examine the same phenomenon using probabilistic collocation (PC), an uncertainty quantification technique which can eficiently propagate multivariate stochastic input through a simulation code,
in this case an eigenvalue-based fluid-structure stability code. The resulting analysis predicts the consequences of an uncertain structure on incidence of
utter in probabilistic terms { information that could be useful in planning
flight-tests and assessing the risk of structural failure. The uncertainty in
utter altitude is confirmed to be substantial. Assuming that the structural uncertainty represents a epistemic uncertainty regarding the
structure, it may be reduced with the availability of additional information { for example aeroelastic response data from a flight-test. Such data is used to update the structural uncertainty using Bayes' theorem. The consequent
utter uncertainty is significantly reduced across the entire Mach number range.

Planning in young children: A review and synthesis

Research on the development of planning is reviewed in the context of a framework that considers the role of three types of cognitive flexibility in planning development: event-independent temporal representation, executive function, and self-projection. It is argued that the emergence of planning abilities in the preschool period is dependent upon the development of event-independent temporal representation. Research on the development of executive function suggests that its sub-components, in particular inhibitory control, may be linked to developmental improvements on planning tasks. Recently, new paradigms have established that self-projection to the future appears to develop over the preschool period. We consider how these different forms of cognitive flexibility may themselves be related in development. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Planning Urban Food Production into Today’s Cities

If cities are to become more sustainable and resilient to change it is likely that they will have to engage with food at increasingly localised levels, in order to reduce their dependency on global systems. With 87 percent of people in developed regions estimated to be living in cities by 2050 it can be assumed that the majority of this localised production will occur in and around cities. As part of a 12 month engagement, Queen’s University Belfast designed and implemented an elevated aquaponic food system spanning the top internal floor and exterior roof space of a disused mill in Manchester, England. The experimental aquaponic system was developed to explore the possibilities and difficulties associated with integrating food production with existing buildings. This paper utilises empirical research regarding crop growth from the elevated aquaponic system and extrapolates the findings across a whole city. The resulting research enables the agricultural productive capacity of today’s cities to be estimated and a framework of implementation to be proposed.

Planning Urban Food Production into Today's Cities

If cities are to become more sustainable and resilient to change it is likely that they will have to engage with food at increasingly localised levels, in order to reduce their dependancy on global systems. With 87 percent of developed regions estimated to be living in cities by 2050 it can be assumed that the majority of this localised production will occur in and around cities.
As part of a 12 month engagement, Queen’s University Belfast designed and implemented an elevated aquaponic food system spanning the top floor and exterior roof space of a disused mill in Manchester, England. The experimental aquaponic system was developed to explore the possibilities and difficulties associated with containing fish tanks, filtration units, vertical growing systems and roof top growing systems within and upon existing buildings, including the structural considerations needed when undertaking such transformations. Although capable of producing 4000 crops at any one time, the elevated aquaponic system utilised space within the existing building, which could otherwise be used as lettable area, and also located some crop growth within the building where light levels are reduced.
The following paper takes the research collected from the elevated aquaponic system and extrapolates the findings across a whole city. The resulting research enables the agricultural productive capacity of todays cities to be determined and a frame work of implementation to be developed for city wide food production. The research focuses specifically on facade and roof based systems, thus elevating the need to utilise lettable area within cities in addition to locating crops where light levels are highest.

Perceptual user interface framework for immersive information retrieval environments (An experimental framework for testing and rapid iteration)

The use of perceptual inputs is an emerging area within HCI that suggests a developing Perceptual User Interface (PUI) that may prove advantageous for those involved in mobile serious games and immersive social network environments. Since there are a large variety of input devices, software platforms, possible interactions, and myriad ways to combine all of the above elements in pursuit of a PUI, we propose in this paper a basic experimental framework that will be able to standardize study of the wide range of interactive applications for testing efficacy in learning or information retrieval and also suggest improvements to emerging PUIs by enabling quick iteration. This rapid iteration will start to define a targeted range of interactions that will be intuitive and comfortable as perceptual inputs, and enhance learning and information retention in comparison to traditional GUI systems. The work focuses on the planning of the technical development of two scenarios, and the first steps in developing a framework to evaluate these and other PUIs for efficacy and pedagogy.

Project Business: a quasi-experimental study of co- operative interaction between schools and industry

This project is a quasi-experimental study involving eight classrooms in two senior elementary schools in St. Catharines, Ontario which received a Project Business Program and were pre- and post-tested to determine the growth of knowledge acquisition in the area of business concepts. Four classrooms received a Project Business treatment while four classrooms acted as a control. The Project Business Program is sponsored by Junior Achievement of Canada; it occurred during a twelveweek period, February to May 1981, and is run by business consultants who, through Action, Dialogue and Career Exploration, teach children about economics and business related topics. The consultants were matched with teacher co-ordinators in whose classrooms they taught and with whom they discussed field trips, students, lesson planning, etc. The statistical analysis of pre- and post-test means revealed a significant statistical growth in the area of knowledge acquisition on the part of those students who received the Project Business Program. This confirms that Project Business makes a difference. A search of the literature appears to advocate economic programs like Project Business, whfch are broadly based, relevant and processoriented. This program recommends itself as a model for other areas of co-operative curricular interactions and as a bridge to future trends and as a result several fruitful areas of research are suggested.

Planning Urban Food Production into Today's Cities

If cities are to become more sustainable and resilient to change it is likely that they will have to engage with food at increasingly localised levels, in order to reduce their dependency on global systems. With 87 percent of people in developed regions estimated to be living in cities by 2050 it can be assumed that the majority of this localised production will occur in and around cities. As part of a 12 month engagement, Queen’s University Belfast designed and implemented an elevated aquaponic food system spanning the top internal floor and exterior roof space of a disused mill in Manchester, England. The experimental aquaponic system was developed to explore the possibilities and difficulties associated with integrating food production with existing buildings. This paper utilises empirical research regarding crop growth from the elevated aquaponic system and extrapolates the findings across a whole city. The resulting research enables the agricultural productive capacity of today’s cities to be estimated and a framework of implementation to be proposed.

Multi-vehicle planning using RRT-connect

The problem of planning multiple vehicles deals with the design of an effective algorithm that can cause multiple autonomous vehicles on the road to communicate and generate a collaborative optimal travel plan. Our modelling of the problem considers vehicles to vary greatly in terms of both size and speed, which makes it suboptimal to have a faster vehicle follow a slower vehicle or for vehicles to drive with predefined speed lanes. It is essential to have a fast planning algorithm whilst still being probabilistically complete. The Rapidly Exploring Random Trees (RRT) algorithm developed and reported on here uses a problem specific coordination axis, a local optimization algorithm, priority based coordination, and a module for deciding travel speeds. Vehicles are assumed to remain in their current relative position laterally on the road unless otherwise instructed. Experimental results presented here show regular driving behaviours, namely vehicle following, overtaking, and complex obstacle avoidance. The ability to showcase complex behaviours in the absence of speed lanes is characteristic of the solution developed.