Credit risk stress testing: The Portuguese environment, macroeconomic scenarios and the estimation of losses for corporate sectors

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Frequency of CCR5 Delta-32 Mutation in Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)-seropositive and HIV-exposed Seronegative Individuals and in General Population of Medellin, Colombia

Repeated exposure to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) does not always result in seroconversion. Modifications in coreceptors for HIV entrance to target cells are one of the factors that block the infection. We studied the frequency of Delta-32 mutation in ccr5 gene in Medellin, Colombia. Two hundred and eighteen individuals distributed in three different groups were analyzed for Delta-32 mutation in ccr5 gene by polymerase chain reaction (PCR): 29 HIV seropositive (SP), 39 exposed seronegative (ESN) and 150 individuals as a general population sample (GPS). The frequency of the Delta-32 mutant allele was 3.8% for ESN, 2.7% for GPS and 1.7% for SP. Only one homozygous mutant genotype (Delta-32/Delta-32) was found among the ESN (2.6%). The heterozygous genotype (ccr5/Delta-32) was found in eight GPS (5.3%), in one SP (3.4%) and in one ESN (2.6%). The differences in the allelic and genotypic frequencies among the three groups were not statistically significant. A comparison between the expected and the observed genotypic frequencies showed that these frequencies were significantly different for the ESN group, which indirectly suggests a protective effect of the mutant genotype (Delta-32/Delta-32). Since this mutant genotype explained the resistance of infection in only one of our ESN persons, different mechanisms of protection must be playing a more important role in this population.

A population genetics study of Anopheles darlingi (Diptera: Culicidae) from Colombia based on random amplified polymorphic DNA-polymerase chain reaction and amplified fragment lenght polymorphism markers

The genetic variation and population structure of three populations of Anopheles darlingi from Colombia were studied using random amplified polymorphic markers (RAPDs) and amplified fragment length polymorphism markers (AFLPs). Six RAPD primers produced 46 polymorphic fragments, while two AFLP primer combinations produced 197 polymorphic fragments from 71 DNA samples. Both of the evaluated genetic markers showed the presence of gene flow, suggesting that Colombian An. darlingi populations are in panmixia. Average genetic diversity, estimated from observed heterozygosity, was 0.374 (RAPD) and 0.309 (AFLP). RAPD and AFLP markers showed little evidence of geographic separation between eastern and western populations; however, the F ST values showed high gene flow between the two western populations (RAPD: F ST = 0.029; Nm: 8.5; AFLP: F ST = 0.051; Nm: 4.7). According to molecular variance analysis (AMOVA), the genetic distance between populations was significant (RAPD:phiST = 0.084; AFLP:phiST = 0.229, P < 0.001). The F ST distances and AMOVAs using AFLP loci support the differentiation of the Guyana biogeographic province population from those of the Chocó-Magdalena. In this last region, Chocó and Córdoba populations showed the highest genetic flow.

Genetic differentiation of continental and island populations of Bombus terrestris (Hymenoptera: Apidae) in Europe.

Ten microsatellite loci and a partial sequence of the COII mitochondrial gene were used to investigate genetic differentiation in B. terrestris, a bumble bee of interest for its high-value crop pollination. The analysis included eight populations from the European continent, five from Mediterranean islands (six subspecies altogether) and one from Tenerife (initially described as a colour form of B. terrestris but recently considered as a separate species, B. canariensis). Eight of the 10 microsatellite loci displayed high levels of polymorphism in most populations. In B. terrestris populations, the total number of alleles detected per polymorphic locus ranged from 3 to 16, with observed allelic diversity from 3.8 +/- 0.5 to 6.5 +/- 1.4 and average calculated heterozygosities from 0.41 +/- 0.09 to 0.65 +/- 0.07. B. canariensis showed a significantly lower average calculated heterozygosity (0.12 +/- 0.08) and observed allelic diversity (1.5 +/- 0.04) as compared to both continental and island populations of B. terrestris. No significant differentiation was found among populations of B. terrestris from the European continent. In contrast, island populations were all significantly and most of them strongly differentiated from continental populations. B. terrestris mitochondrial DNA is characterized by a low nucleotide diversity: 0.18% +/- 0.07%, 0.20% +/- 0.04% and 0.27% +/- 0.04% for the continental populations, the island populations and all populations together, respectively. The only haplotype found in the Tenerife population differs by a single nucleotide substitution from the most common continental haplotype of B. terrestris. This situation, identical to that of Tyrrhenian islands populations and quite different from that of B. lucorum (15 substitutions between terrestris and lucorum mtDNA) casts doubts on the species status of B. canariensis. The large genetic distance between the Tenerife and B. terrestris populations estimated from microsatellite data result, most probably, from a severe bottleneck in the Canary island population. Microsatellite and mitochondrial DNA data call for the protection of the island populations of B. terrestris against importation of bumble bees of foreign origin which are used as crop pollinators.

Isolation and characterization of highly polymorphic microsatellite loci in the bladder campion, Silene vulgaris (Caryophyllaceae)

This study reports the isolation and characterization of seven highly polymorphic microsatellite loci in Silene vulgaris (Caryophyllaceae). The loci were isolated from two libraries constructed from genomic DNA enriched for CA and GA repeats. These markers yielded nine to 40 alleles per locus (mean 22.1) in a survey of 45 individuals from a single population located in the western Swiss Alps. Average observed heterozygosity ranged from 16.2 to 77.4%. These microsatellite loci should be valuable tools for studying fine-scale genetic structure.

External validation of the ASTRAL score to predict 3- and 12-month functional outcome in the China National Stroke Registry.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The ASTRAL score was recently introduced as a prognostic tool for acute ischemic stroke. It predicts 3-month outcome reliably in both the derivation and the validation European cohorts. We aimed to validate the ASTRAL score in a Chinese stroke population and moreover to explore its prognostic value to predict 12-month outcome. METHODS: We applied the ASTRAL score to acute ischemic stroke patients admitted to 132 study sites of the China National Stroke Registry. Unfavorable outcome was assessed as a modified Rankin Scale score >2 at 3 and 12 months. Areas under the curve were calculated to quantify the prognostic value. Calibration was assessed by comparing predicted and observed probability of unfavorable outcome using Pearson correlation coefficient. RESULTS: Among 3755 patients, 1473 (39.7%) had 3-month unfavorable outcome. Areas under the curve for 3 and 12 months were 0.82 and 0.81, respectively. There was high correlation between observed and expected probability of unfavorable 3- and 12-month outcome (Pearson correlation coefficient: 0.964 and 0.963, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: ASTRAL score is a reliable tool to predict unfavorable outcome at 3 and 12 months after acute ischemic stroke in the Chinese population. It is a useful tool that can be readily applied in clinical practice to risk-stratify acute stroke patients.

Pencil grip : a descriptive model and four empirical studies

Previous studies on pencil grip have typically dealt with the developmental aspects in young children while handwriting research is mainly concerned with speed and legibility. Studies linking these areas are few. Evaluation of the existing pencil grip studies is hampered by methodological inconsistencies. The operational definitions of pencil grip arerational but tend to be oversimplified while detailed descriptors tend to be impractical due to their multiplicity. The present study introduces a descriptive two-dimensional model for the categorisation of pencil grip suitable for research applications in a classroom setting. The model is used in four empirical studies of children during the first six years of writing instruction. Study 1 describes the pencil grips observed in a large group of pupils in Finland (n = 504). The results indicate that in Finland the majority of grips resemble the traditional dynamic tripod grip. Significant genderrelated differences in pencil grip were observed. Study 2 is a longitudinal exploration of grip stability vs. change (n = 117). Both expected and unexpected changes were observed in about 25 per cent of the children's grips over four years. A new finding emerged using the present model for categorisation: whereas pencil grips would change, either in terms of ease of grip manipulation or grip configuration, no instances were found where a grip would have changed concurrently on both dimensions. Study 3 is a cross-cultural comparison of grips observed in Finland and the USA (n = 793). The distribution of the pencil grips observed in the American pupils was significantly different from those found in Finland. The cross-cultural disparity is most likely related to the differences in the onset of writing instruction. The differences between the boys' and girls' grips in the American group were non-significant.An implication of Studies 2 and 3 is that the initial pencil grip is of foremost importance since pencil grips are largely stable over time. Study 4 connects the pencil grips to assessment of the mechanics of writing (n = 61). It seems that certain previously not recommended pencil grips might nevertheless be includedamong those accepted since they did not appear to hamper either fluency or legibility.

The genetics of behaviour and other adaptive traits in nine-spined sticklebacks (Pungitius pungitius)

One of the main goals in current evolutionary biology research is to identify genes behind adaptive phenotypic variations. The advances in genomic technologies have made it possible to identify genetic loci behind these variations, also concerning non-model species. This thesis investigates the genetics of the behaviour and other adaptive traits of the nine-spined stickleback (Pungitius pungitius) through the application of different genetic approaches. Fennoscandian nine-spined stickleback populations express large phenotypical differences especially in behaviour, life –history traits and morphology. However the underlying genetic bases for these phenotypical differences have not been studied in detail. The results of the project will lay the foundation for further genetics studies and provide valuable information for our understanding of the genetics of the adaptive divergence of the nine-spined stickleback. A candidate gene approach was used to develop microsatellite markers situating close to candidate genes for behaviour in the nine-spined stickleback. Altogether 13 markers were developed and these markers were used in the subsequent studies with the anonymous random markers and physiologically important gene markers which are already currently available for nine-spined sticklebacks. It was shown that heterozygosity correlated with behaviour in one of the marine nine-spined stickleback populations but with contrasting effects: correlations with behaviour were negative when using physiological gene markers and positive with random markers. No correlation was found between behavioural markers and behaviour. From the physiological gene markers, a strong correlation was found between osmoregulation-related gene markers and behaviour. These results indicate that both local (physiological) and general (random) effects are important in the shaping of behaviour and that heterozygosity– behaviour correlations are population dependent. In this thesis a second linkage map for nine-spined sticklebacks was constructed. Compared to the earlier nine-spined stickleback linkage map, genomic rearrangements were observed between autosomal (LG7) and sex-determing (LG12) linkage groups. This newly constructed map was used in QTL mapping studies in order to locate genomic regions associated with pelvic structures, behaviour and body size/growth. One major QTL was found for pelvic structures and Pitx1 gene was related to these traits as was predicted from three-spined stickleback studies, but this was in contrast to earlier nine-spined stickleback study. The QTL studies also revealed that behaviour and body size/growth were genetically more complex by having more QTL than pelvic traits. However, in many cases, pelvic structure, body size/growth and behaviour were linked to similar map locations indicating possible pleiotropic effects of genes locating in these QTL regions. Many of the gene related markers resided in the QTL area. In the future, studying these possible candidate genes in depth might reveal the underlying mechanism behind the measured traits.

Comparing adult-youth and adult-adult online sexual solicitation: Manipulative behaviors, situational factors, and outcomes

Online sexual solicitation (solicitation) of youth has received widespread media and research attention during the last decade. The prevalence rates of youth who have experienced solicitation or solicitation attempts vary between studies depending on the methodology used (e.g., whether youth or adults are the target study group). In studies focusing on youth victims, the prevalence of solicitation attempts made by adults during the past year is typically reported to be between 5 and 9%. Adults who solicit youth online have been found to use deception and other manipulative behaviors to gain access to sexual activities with youth. However, previous studies have lacked a control group of adults who solicit other adults online. Without this comparison, one could argue that deceiving others online about one’s identity, and engaging in manipulative behaviors, is an inherent part of most online sexual interactions with strangers. Additionally, little is known about the associations between manipulative behaviors and the solicitation outcomes. In research concerning offline sexual behaviors, it has been noted that situational factors, such as sexual arousal, may alter both sexual interest and behavior. The effects of situational factors on online sexual behaviors have been less extensively studied (especially so with a quantitative approach); no studies have to date focused on adults’ solicitation of youth. Investigating the role of a lowered sexual age preference and the role of situational factors in the soliciting adults could be an important step in order to receive deeper knowledge of the role of traits and states in the context of solicitation. Additionally, there is a lack of knowledge of the effect of the age of the youth. Although previous studies on solicitation has found that older youth, compared with younger youth and children, are more often solicited, the possible reasons for this have not been investigated. Are adults who solicit youth affected by legal deterrence (through the legal age of consent), is it because older youth are more available online, or are the adults’ age preferences merely a product of a normally distributed age preference in the population? The purpose of the present thesis was fivefold: 1) to obtain an estimate of the frequency of adults’ solicitation of youth as self-reported and observed in actual behavior; 2) to explore whether the legal age of consent (LAC) affects solicitation frequency, or whether a normally distributed sexual age preference more accurately describe the proportion of solicited youth of different ages; 3) to investigate the associations of both traits (e.g., lower sexual age preference) and states (immediate situational factors, such as alcohol intoxication), and the solicitation target; 4) to explore whether adults who solicit youth and adults who solicit adults are equally deceitful and manipulative online, and whether the different solicitation outcomes are as common in both groups; and 5) to investigate whether the deceitful and manipulative behaviors engaged in had different associations with the solicitation outcomes depending on the age of the solicited. In the survey study, a convenience sample of 1393 adult participants (aged 18 years or older) self-reported any online communication with strangers during the past year. Of these, 56% (776 respondents) reported that they had solicited or attempted to solicit at least one stranger. Of the respondents, 453 (58.4%) were men, and 323 (41.6%) were women. Participants with only adult contacts (18 years or older) constituted the majority (640 respondents). In contrast, 136 individuals reported a youth contact (a 13 year old or younger, or a 14 to 17-year old). Approximately half of the participants were men in the adult contact group, while 75% of the participants were men in the youth contact group. Approximately 60% of the participants with youth contacts were recruited from two websites associated with a pedophilic sexual interest. In an online quasi-experimental study, with researchers impersonating youth of different ages (10–18 year olds) in chat rooms, 251 online conversations with chat room visitors made up the entire sample. All chat room visitors alleged to be men. The self-reported frequency of having solicited youth (0–17-year olds) during the past year was approximately 10% in our sample of adults who reported communicating with any strangers online. When we observed this behavior in chat rooms, we found that approximately 30% of the chat room visitors who believed they interacted with a 10 to 14 year old attempted to solicit the youth. We found that solicitation attempts increased equally much when increasing the age of the impersonated youth from 14 to 16, as from 16 to 18. Thus, we concluded that a normally distributed age preference in the population was a more plausible explanation to the effect of the age of the solicited, rather than the LAC (here; 15 and 16). If the chat room visitors would have been deterred only by the LAC, we would have expected that the change in amount of solicitation attempts from an illegal age group to a legal age group would have been significantly stronger than changes between age groups within illegal-illegal and legal-legal groups. Our subsample of survey participants from the pedophilia-related websites expectedly reported that they had solicited youth more often in comparison to the sample gathered through general (i.e., not associated with any particular sexual preference) websites. We also found that participants with a youth contact reported higher levels of sexual arousal and shame before the sexual interaction with their online contact, compared with participants with an adult contact. Additionally, the participants with youth contacts who reported consumption of child- and adolescent pornography also reported being more sexually aroused before the interaction, compared to the participants with youth contacts who did not report consumption of these kinds of pornography. We also found clear indications that the online sexual interaction had an alleviatory effect on reported levels of sadness, boredom and stress, independent of the age of the contact. Generally, the participants with youth and adult contacts reported deceiving their contacts as often and suggesting keeping the communication a secret from someone as often. Participants with a youth contact, however, reported using more persuasion techniques for online sexual purposes or for the purpose of an offline meeting, compared to those with an adult contact. In the chat rooms, we found that more indirect ways of future sexual communication (e.g., continuing chatting) was suggested by the chat room visitors that were under the assumption of interacting with youth aged 10 to 14, compared with more direct means (e.g., meeting offline). Survey participants with youth contacts who had used deception, suggested keeping the interactions a secret, and/or persuaded their contact by appealing to the contacts feelings of love and attachment for the participant had also more often engaged in cybersex with the contact. No other manipulative behaviors were associated with the other investigated solicitation outcomes (receiving a sexual picture, meeting offline, and engaging in sexual contact offline) within this group of participants. However, using deception, suggesting secrecy and using persuasion was also positively associated with certain solicitation outcomes within participants with an adult contact. In summary, adults’ solicitation of youth is much more frequent when observed in chat rooms than self-reported. Additionally, an underlying lowered sexual age preference seems to be a motivating factor on a group level in adults who solicit youth. We concluded that directed prevention efforts should be made on pedophiliarelated websites. Additionally, the role of situational factors, especially sexual arousal in persons with a pedo- or hebephilic sexual interest should be investigated further in the context of online sexual solicitation.

Sex Talk: A Multiple Case Study to Explore and Understand Parent-Child Sexual Health Communication in Chinese Immigrant Families

Parent-child sexual health communication can be beneficial. Many factors affect such communication in Chinese immigrant families. This qualitative study explored the influences of acculturation, parenting, and parental participation in the Raising Sexually Healthy Children Program (RSHC) on such communication. With a hermeneutic framework, the purpose was to develop understanding based on the topic, context, and researcher interpretations. Twelve interviews elicited data from six parent-child dyads, three from the RSHC. Analysis involved coding processes; data were compared repeatedly and organized into themes. Perceived personality differences between generations were confounded with cultural communicative differences. Parents used implicitness observed in Chinese culture to establish "open" communication; children expected explicitness observed in Western culture. Post- RSHC, parents perceived themselves as more open to talking about sex; children did not perceive such parental changes. Future research should include joint interviews and longitudinal program evaluation. Future practice should focus on cross-cultural communication and involving children in RSHC.

Climate change and heat-related mortality in six cities Part 1: model construction and validation

Heat waves are expected to increase in frequency and magnitude with climate change. The first part of a study to produce projections of the effect of future climate change on heat-related mortality is presented. Separate city-specific empirical statistical models that quantify significant relationships between summer daily maximum temperature (T max) and daily heat-related deaths are constructed from historical data for six cities: Boston, Budapest, Dallas, Lisbon, London, and Sydney. ‘Threshold temperatures’ above which heat-related deaths begin to occur are identified. The results demonstrate significantly lower thresholds in ‘cooler’ cities exhibiting lower mean summer temperatures than in ‘warmer’ cities exhibiting higher mean summer temperatures. Analysis of individual ‘heat waves’ illustrates that a greater proportion of mortality is due to mortality displacement in cities with less sensitive temperature–mortality relationships than in those with more sensitive relationships, and that mortality displacement is no longer a feature more than 12 days after the end of the heat wave. Validation techniques through residual and correlation analyses of modelled and observed values and comparisons with other studies indicate that the observed temperature–mortality relationships are represented well by each of the models. The models can therefore be used with confidence to examine future heat-related deaths under various climate change scenarios for the respective cities (presented in Part 2).

Sex and outcrossing in a sessile freshwater invertebrate

1. The freshwater bryozoan Cristatella mucedo, in common with other sessile, benthic freshwater taxa, has an unusual life history: sex occurs during a relatively brief period near the start of the growing season, and overwintering occurs in the form of asexually produced dormant propagules (statoblasts). Consistent observed heterozygosity (Ho) deficits in C. mucedo populations have previously suggested that inbreeding is common, although a possible contribution of a Wahlund effect to low Ho could not be discounted. 2. We have used microsatellite data in the first study based on codominant markers to genetically characterise maternal colonies and larval offspring of C. mucedo . The 'population' represented by the larvae was in Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium, which has previously been found in only one of 39 populations of C. mucedo . At least 64% of larvae were the products of outcrossing. We suggest that the unusual early timing of sex may be a strategy to maximise rates of outcrossing within populations of sessile freshwater invertebrates.

Air flow influences on local climate: observed and simulated mean relationships for the United Kingdom

Synoptic-scale air flow variability over the United Kingdom is measured on a daily time scale by following previous work to define 3 indices: geostrophic flow strength, vorticity and direction. Comparing the observed distribution of air flow index values with those determined from a simulation with the Hadley Centre’s global climate model (HadCM2) identifies some minor systematic biases in the model’s synoptic circulation but demonstrates that the major features are well simulated. The relationship between temperature and precipitation from parts of the United Kingdom and these air flow indices (either singly or in pairs) is found to be very similar in both the observations and model output; indeed the simulated and observed precipitation relationships are found to be almost interchangeable in a quantitative sense. These encouraging results imply that some reliability can be assumed for single grid-box and regional output from this climate model; this applies only to those grid boxes evaluated here (which do not have high or complex orography), only to the portion of variability that is controlled by synoptic air flow variations, and only to those surface variables considered here (temperature and precipitation).

Simulating dynamic crop growth with an adapted land surface model – JULES-SUCROS: model development and validation

The increasing demand for ecosystem services, in conjunction with climate change, is expected to signif- icantly alter terrestrial ecosystems. In order to evaluate the sustainability of land and water resources, there is a need for a better understanding of the relationships between crop production, land surface characteristics and the energy and water cycles. These relationships are analysed using the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES). JULES includes the full hydrological cycle and vegetation effects on the energy, water, and carbon fluxes. However, this model currently only simulates land surface processes in natural ecosystems. An adapted version of JULES for agricultural ecosystems, called JULES-SUCROS has therefore been developed. In addition to overall model improvements, JULES-SUCROS includes a dynamic crop growth structure that fully fits within and builds upon the biogeochemical modelling framework for natural vegetation. Specific agro-ecosystem features such as the development of yield-bearing organs and the phenological cycle from sowing till harvest have been included in the model. This paper describes the structure of JULES-SUCROS and evaluates the fluxes simulated with this model against FLUXNET measurements at 6 European sites. We show that JULES-SUCROS significantly improves the correlation between simulated and observed fluxes over cropland and captures well the spatial and temporal vari- ability of the growth conditions in Europe. Simulations with JULES-SUCROS highlight the importance of vegetation structure and phenology, and the impact they have on land–atmosphere interactions.

Expected value, reward outcome, and temporal difference error representations in a probabilistic decision task

In probabilistic decision tasks, an expected value (EV) of a choice is calculated, and after the choice has been made, this can be updated based on a temporal difference (TD) prediction error between the EV and the reward magnitude (RM) obtained. The EV is measured as the probability of obtaining a reward x RM. To understand the contribution of different brain areas to these decision-making processes, functional magnetic resonance imaging activations related to EV versus RM (or outcome) were measured in a probabilistic decision task. Activations in the medial orbitofrontal cortex were correlated with both RM and with EV and confirmed in a conjunction analysis to extend toward the pregenual cingulate cortex. From these representations, TD reward prediction errors could be produced. Activations in areas that receive from the orbitofrontal cortex including the ventral striatum, midbrain, and inferior frontal gyrus were correlated with the TD error. Activations in the anterior insula were correlated negatively with EV, occurring when low reward outcomes were expected, and also with the uncertainty of the reward, implicating this region in basic and crucial decision-making parameters, low expected outcomes, and uncertainty.