Analysis of life expectancy using linear and nonlinear models

Life expectancy has consistently increased over the last 150 years due to improvements in nutrition, medicine, and public health. Several studies found that in many developed countries, life expectancy continued to rise following a nearly linear trend, which was contrary to a common belief that the rate of improvement in life expectancy would decelerate and was fit with an S-shaped curve. Using samples of countries that exhibited a wide range of economic development levels, we explored the change in life expectancy over time by employing both nonlinear and linear models. We then observed if there were any significant differences in estimates between linear models, assuming an auto-correlated error structure. When data did not have a sigmoidal shape, nonlinear growth models sometimes failed to provide meaningful parameter estimates. The existence of an inflection point and asymptotes in the growth models made them inflexible with life expectancy data. In linear models, there was no significant difference in the life expectancy growth rate and future estimates between ordinary least squares (OLS) and generalized least squares (GLS). However, the generalized least squares model was more robust because the data involved time-series variables and residuals were positively correlated. ^

Delayed symptom onset and increased life expectancy in Sandhoff disease mice treated with N-butyldeoxynojirimycin

Sandhoff disease is a neurodegenerative disorder resulting from the autosomal recessive inheritance of mutations in the HEXB gene, which encodes the β-subunit of β-hexosaminidase. GM2 ganglioside fails to be degraded and accumulates within lysosomes in cells of the periphery and the central nervous system (CNS). There are currently no therapies for the glycosphingolipid lysosomal storage diseases that involve CNS pathology, including the GM2 gangliosidoses. One strategy for treating this and related diseases is substrate deprivation. This would utilize an inhibitor of glycosphingolipid biosynthesis to balance synthesis with the impaired rate of catabolism, thus preventing storage. One such inhibitor is N-butyldeoxynojirimycin, which currently is in clinical trials for the potential treatment of type 1 Gaucher disease, a related disease that involves glycosphingolipid storage in peripheral tissues, but not in the CNS. In this study, we have evaluated whether this drug also could be applied to the treatment of diseases with CNS storage and pathology. We therefore have treated a mouse model of Sandhoff disease with the inhibitor N-butyldeoxynojirimycin. The treated mice have delayed symptom onset, reduced storage in the brain and peripheral tissues, and increased life expectancy. Substrate deprivation therefore offers a potentially general therapy for this family of lysosomal storage diseases, including those with CNS disease.

Dissociation of response conflict, attentional selection, and expectancy with functional magnetic resonance imaging

Two different attentional networks have been associated with visuospatial attention and conflict resolution. In most situations either one of the two networks is active or both are increased in activity together. By using functional magnetic resonance imaging and a flanker task, we show conditions in which one network (anterior attention system) is increased in activity whereas the other (visuospatial attention system) is reduced, showing that attentional conflict and selection are separate aspects of attention. Further, we distinguish between neural systems involved in different forms of conflict. Specifically, we dissociate patterns of activity in the basal ganglia and insula cortex during simple violations in expectancies (i.e., sudden changes in the frequency of an event) from patterns of activity in the anterior attention system specifically correlated with response conflict as evidenced by longer response latencies and more errors. These data provide a systems-level approach in understanding integrated attentional networks.

Chronic elevation of plasma thioredoxin: Inhibition of chemotaxis and curtailment of life expectancy in AIDS

Thioredoxin (Trx) is an intracellular redox protein with extracellular cytokine-like and chemokine-like activities. We show here that, although plasma Trx levels are unrelated to survival of HIV-infected individuals with CD4 cell counts above 200/μl blood, survival is significantly impaired (P = 0.003) when plasma Trx is chronically elevated in HIV-infected subjects with CD4 T cell counts below this level (i.e., with Centers for Disease Control (CDC)-defined AIDS). Relevant to the mechanism potentially underlying this finding, we also present data from experimental studies in mice showing that elevated plasma Trx efficiently blocks lipopolysaccharide (LPS)-induced chemotaxis, an innate immune mechanism that is particularly crucial when adaptive immunity is compromised. Thus, we propose that elevated plasma Trx in HIV-infected individuals with low CD4 T cell counts directly impairs survival by blocking pathogen-induced chemotaxis, effectively eliminating the last (innate) barrier against establishment of opportunistic and other infections in these immunodeficient individuals.

Driver expectancy in highway design and traffic operations. Final report.

Mode of access: Internet.

Highway geometric design consistency related to driver expectancy. Volume I: executive summary. Final report.

Federal Highway Administration, Environmental Division, Washington, D.C.

Highway geometric design consistency related to driver expectancy. Volume II: research report. Final report.

Federal Highway Administration, Environmental Division, Washington, D.C.

Highway geometric design consistency related to driver expectancy. Volume III: procedures for determining geometric design consistency. Final report.

Federal Highway Administration, Environmental Division, Washington, D.C.

Trends in mortality differentials and life expectancy for male social security-covered workers, by average relative earnings /

"SSA publication no. 13-11712"--Cover p. [4].

Psychometric properties of the drinking expectancy questionnaire: A review of the factor structure and a proposed new scoring method

Objective: Expectancies about the outcomes of alcohol consumption are widely accepted as important determinants of drinking. This construct is increasingly recognized as a significant element of psychological interventions for alcohol-related problems. Much effort has been invested in producing reliable and valid instruments to measure this construct for research and clinical purposes, but very few have had their factor structure subjected to adequate validation. Among them, the Drinking Expectancies Questionnaire (DEQ) was developed to address some theoretical and design issues with earlier expectancy scales. Exploratory factor analyses, in addition to validity and reliability analyses, were performed when the original questionnaire was developed. The object of this study was to undertake a confirmatory analysis of the factor structure of the DEQ. Method: Confirmatory factor analysis through LISREL 8 was performed using a randomly split sample of 679 drinkers. Results: Results suggested that a new 5-factor model, which differs slightly from the original 6-factor version, was a more robust measure of expectancies. A new method of scoring the DEQ consistent with this factor structure is presented. Conclusions: The present study shows more robust psychometric properties of the DEQ using the new factor structure.

An economic analysis of life expectancy by gender with application to the United States

This paper presents an economic model to explain the behavior of life expectancy of both sexes. It explicitly examines the relationship between the gender gap in life expectancy and the gender gap in pay. It shows that as the latter narrows over the course of economic development, the former may initially expand but will eventually shrink. Simulation results from our model accord with the behavior of life expectancy for both sexes since the 1940s in the United States. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The effect of life expectancy on fertility, saving, schooling and economic growth: theory and evidence

We construct a simple growth model where agents with uncertain survival choose schooling time, life-cycle consumption and the number of children. We show that rising longevity reduces fertility but raises saving, schooling time and the growth rate at a diminishing rate. Cross-section analyses using data from 76 countries support these propositions: life expectancy has a significant positive effect on the saving rate, secondary school enrollment and growth but a significant negative effect on fertility. Through sensitivity analyses, the effect on the saving rate is inconclusive, while the effects on the other variables are robust and consistent. These estimated effects are decreasing in life expectancy. Copyright The editors of the Scandinavian Journal of Economics 2005.

The role of alcohol expectancy and drinking refusal self-efficacy beliefs in university student drinking

Aims: University student alcohol misuse is a considerable problem. Alcohol expectancy research has contributed significantly to our understanding of problem drinking in young adults. Most of this research has investigated positive expectancy alone. The current study utilized two measures of alcohol expectancy, the alcohol expectancy questionnaire (AEQ) and the drinking expectancy profile [consisting of the drinking expectancy questionnaire (DEQ) and the drinking refusal self-efficacy questionnaire] to predict severity of alcohol dependence, frequency of drinking, and the quantity of alcohol consumed per occasion. Methods: Measures of drinking behaviour and alcohol expectancy were completed by 174 undergraduate university students. Results: Positive alcohol expectancy factors accounted for significant variance in all three drinking indices, with the DEQ adding additional variance to AEQ scores on frequency and severity of alcohol dependence indices. Negative expectancy did not add incremental variance to the prediction of drinking behaviour in this sample. Drinking refusal self-efficacy and dependence beliefs added additional variance over positive and negative expectancies in the prediction of all three drinking parameters. Conclusions: Positive expectancy and drinking refusal self-efficacy were strongly related to university student drinking. The incorporation of expectancy as a means of informing prevention approaches in tertiary education shows promise.

Placebo expectancy effects in the relationship between glucose and cognition

The present study investigated the extent of expectancy in the ability of glucose to affect cognitive performance. Using a within-subjects design, subjects (n 26) completed four experimental sessions (in counterbalanced order and after an initial practice session) during which they were given a 500 ml drink 30 min prior to completing a cognitive assessment battery. In addition, all subjects completed a baseline practice session during which they were given no drink. During two of the sessions, subjects were given a drink containing 50 g glucose and on the other two they were given a drink containing aspartame. A balanced placebo design was used, such that for half the sessions subjects were accurately informed as to the content of the drink (glucose or aspartame), whereas in the other two sessions they were misinformed as to the content of the drink. The task battery comprised a 6 min visual analogue of the Bakan vigilance task, an immediate verbal free-recall task, an immediate verbal recognition memory task and a measure of motor speed (two-finger tapping). Blood glucose and self-reported mood were also recorded at several time points during each session. Glucose administration was found to improve recognition memory times, in direct contrast to previous findings in the literature. Glucose administration also improved performance on the Bakan task (relative to the control drink), but only in sessions where subjects were informed that they would receive glucose and not when they were told that they would receive aspartame. There were no effects either of the nature of the drink or expectancy on the other measures. These results are interpreted in terms of there being some contribution of expectancy concerning the positive effects of glucose on cognition in studies which have not used an equi-sweet dose of aspartame as a control drink.

Placebo expectancy effect of consuming psychoactive beverages on cognition and mood

Energy drinks have become very popular over the past few years with over half the student population in colleges and universities consuming them at least once a month (Malinauskas et al., 2007). It has been reported that the most common reasons why students consume energy drinks are to maintain alertness, reduce symptoms of hangover, increase energy, to help with driving and to prevent sleepiness (Attila and Cakir, 2011; Malinauskas et al., 2007). Previous research has suggested that energy drinks enhance sensorimotor speed, behaviour, and reduce levels of fatigue (Alford et al., 2001; Horne and Reyner, 2001; Howard and Marczinski, 2010; Kennedy and Scholey, 2004; Smit et al., 2004). The two key ingredients found in energy drinks are caffeine and glucose which have been examined together and alone, which have indicated enhanced reaction times, improvement in both verbal memory and sustained attention and more recently there is evidence to show that expectancy may play a key role in predicting intentions of future consumption (Adan and serra-Grabulosa, 2010). According to Kirsch (1997) people have specific expectations when they consume psychoactive substances that trigger physiological and psychological reactions, which tend to be independent of the psychoactive substance ingested. The concept of expectancy effects can be unambiguous especially when the information provided to the participants prior to the experimental study is specific to a possible outcome response. This thesis investigated the extent of expectancy effect on cognition and mood when psychoactive drinks containing caffeine and glucose were consumed in comparison to non-psychoactive drinks. The investigation commenced with examining the independent effects of caffeine and glucose, followed by the combination of caffeine and glucose as an energy drink on mood and cognition. The investigation advanced by comparing drink presentation effects (i.e., consuming the experimental drink from a branded bottle versus from a glass) irrespective of drink content on mood and cognition. Finally, the investigation lead to exploring what factors may predict expectancy effects when participants’ consumed psychoactive drinks among healthy adults. This was done by applying the Theory of Planned Behaviour model (TPB) (Azjen, 1991) to explore the contribution of specific attitudes, subjective norms and perceived behavioural control to the extent of expectancy effects as well as to behavioural intention, with additional variables including; beliefs, habits, past-behaviour, selfidentity. Self-identity representing someone who drinks energy drinks regularly. The level of internal consistency for Cronbach’s alpha was conducted for each variable within the TPB model and for the additional variables included for test reliability. This thesis consisted of four studies, which found that consumption of caffeine and glucose independently and also in combination resulted in psychoactive effects on mood and cognition. Experiment 2 was the only study, which indicated an expectancy effect for immediate verbal recall task and the mood subscale tension. Conversely, for experiment 4 there was a reverse effect found for the immediate verbal recall task. However, there were significant expectancy and psychoactive effects found for mood subscales throughout the four studies. It was also found that the TPB model had two significant variables past-behaviour and self-identity predicted intentions suggesting that participants who regularly consume psychoactive beverages have salient beliefs about consuming psychoactive drinks and the TPB model can be utilised to predict their intentions. Furthermore, the Theory of planned behaviour model found that habit and self-identity significantly predicted participants’ expectancy effects on the vigour. Indicating consumers of energy drinks are familiar with expected outcome response. This model was unsuccessful in predicting expectancy response for cognitive performance. Thus, overall the findings from the four studies indicated that caffeine and glucose have cognitive enhancing properties, which also positively improve mood. However, expectancy effects have been identified for mood only, whereas the overall findings within this thesis were unable to identify significant predictors of expectancy effect and response.