A comparison of farmland returns in Australia, Canada, New Zealand and United States

Rural land is still a major property asset class and rural commodity production is an important domestic and export market in all economies. This paper carries out a comprehensive analysis of both rural production and land prices in four major rural production countries. The study compares rural property values in Unites States, Canada, Australia and New Zealand over a period 1990 to 2005 and analyzes and compares the capital return and total return performance for rural land in these four countries. The analysis allows a comparison of farm land returns for both a subsidised and non-subsidised farming policy to determine if levels of farm support result in variations in farm profitability and therefore farm land values.

The impact of property title type on residential property returns

Residential property in New Zealand comprises both freestanding residential properties and medium to high density residential properties. Medium to high density residential property comprises the typical units, townhouses and semi-detached houses common in most residential property markets. However, in many of the larger cities of New Zealand the free standing residential property market has evolved into two separate markets being freehold residential property and cross lease residential property. Cross leases have developed as a form of infill housing to reduce the urban sprawl in major canters, while reducing the time and cost for residential property developers. A cross lease is created when an existing freestanding residential property subdivides a portion of the existing land for the erection of another house on the original title, basically dividing one larger residential section into two smaller residential blocks. This paper will analyse house prices in Christchurch over the period 1992 to 2006 to determine if the various housing markets have shown similar capital returns or if there is a specific preference for a particular residential property title.

The Influence of Farm Management on NSW Rural Property Income and Total Average Annual Returns

The importance of agriculture in many countries has tended to reduce as their economies move from a resource base to a manufacturing industry base. Although the level of agricultural production in first world countries has increased over the past two decades, this increase has generally been at a less significant rate compared to other sectors of the economies. Despite this increase in secondary and high technology industries, developed countries have continued to encourage and support their agricultural industries. This support has been through both tariffs and price support. Following pressure from developing economies, particularly through the World Trade Organisation (WTO), GATT Uruguay round and the Cairns Group developed countries are now in various stages of winding back or de-coupling agricultural support within their economies. A major concern of farmers in protected agricultural markets is the impact of a free market trade in agricultural commodities on farm incomes, profitability and land values. This paper will analyse both the capital and income performance of the NSW rural land market over the period 1990-1999. This analysis will be based on several rural land use classifications and will compare the total return from rural properties based on the farm income generated by both the average farmer and those farmers considered to be in the top 20% of the various land use areas. The analysis will provide a comprehensive overview of rural production in a free trade economy.

Why common factors in international bond returns are not so common

This paper analyzes the common factor structure of US, German, and Japanese Government bond returns. Unlike previous studies, we formally take into account the presence of country-specific factors when estimating common factors. We show that the classical approach of running a principal component analysis on a multi-country dataset of bond returns captures both local and common influences and therefore tends to pick too many factors. We conclude that US bond returns share only one common factor with German and Japanese bond returns. This single common factor is associated most notably with changes in the level of domestic term structures. We show that accounting for country-specific factors improves the performance of domestic and international hedging strategies.

Excess deaths during the 2004 heatwave in Brisbane, Australia

The paper examines whether there was an excess of deaths and the relative role of temperature and ozone in a heatwave during 7–26 February 2004 in Brisbane, Australia, a subtropical city accustomed to warm weather. The data on daily counts of deaths from cardiovascular disease and non-external causes, meteorological conditions, and air pollution in Brisbane from 1 January 2001 to 31 October 2004 were supplied by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, and Queensland Environmental Protection Agency, respectively. The relationship between temperature and mortality was analysed using a Poisson time series regression model with smoothing splines to control for nonlinear effects of confounding factors. The highest temperature recorded in the 2004 heatwave was 42°C compared with the highest recorded temperature of 34°C during the same periods of 2001–2003. There was a significant relationship between exposure to heat and excess deaths in the 2004 heatwave estimated increase in non-external deaths: 75 [(95% confidence interval, CI: 11–138; cardiovascular deaths: 41 (95% CI: −2 to 84)]. There was no apparent evidence of substantial short-term mortality displacement. The excess deaths were mainly attributed to temperature but exposure to ozone also contributed to these deaths.

Excess length of stay due to central line–associated bloodstream infection in intensive care units in Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico

Objective.To estimate the excess length of stay in an intensive care unit (ICU) due to a central line–associated bloodstream infection (CLABSI), using a multistate model that accounts for the timing of infection. Design.A cohort of 3,560 patients followed up for 36,806 days in ICUs. Setting.Eleven ICUs in 3 Latin American countries: Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico. Patients.All patients admitted to the ICU during a defined time period with a central line in place for more than 24 hours. Results.The average excess length of stay due to a CLABSI increased in 10 of 11 ICUs and varied from −1.23 days to 4.69 days. A reduction in length of stay in Mexico was probably caused by an increased risk of death due to CLABSI, leading to shorter times to death. Adjusting for patient age and Average Severity of Illness Score tended to increase the estimated excess length of stays due to CLABSI. Conclusions.CLABSIs are associated with an excess length of ICU stay. The average excess length of stay varies between ICUs, most likely because of the case‐mix of admissions and differences in the ways that hospitals deal with infections.

Malaysia high-rise residential property management : 2004-2010 trends and scenario

Property management requires an understanding of infrastructure management, service life planning and quality management. Today, people are beginning to realize that effective property management in high-rise residential property can sustain the property value and maintaining high returns on their investment. The continuous growth of high-rise residential properties indicates that there is a need for an effective property management system to provide a sustainable high-rise residential property development. As intensive as these studies are, they do not attempt to investigate the correlation between property management systems with the trends of Malaysia high-rise residential property development. By examining the trends and scenario of Malaysia high-rise residential property development, this paper aims to gain an understanding of impacts from the effectiveness of property management in this scope area. Findings from this scoping paper will assist in providing a greater understanding and possible solutions for the current Malaysian property management systems for the expanding high-rise residential unit market. With current high rise units in excess of 1.3 million and increasing, the need for more cost effective management systems are of highly important to the Malaysian Property Industry.

A comparison of alternative bankruptcy prediction models

Early models of bankruptcy prediction employed financial ratios drawn from pre-bankruptcy financial statements and performed well both in-sample and out-of-sample. Since then there has been an ongoing effort in the literature to develop models with even greater predictive performance. A significant innovation in the literature was the introduction into bankruptcy prediction models of capital market data such as excess stock returns and stock return volatility, along with the application of the Black–Scholes–Merton option-pricing model. In this note, we test five key bankruptcy models from the literature using an upto- date data set and find that they each contain unique information regarding the probability of bankruptcy but that their performance varies over time. We build a new model comprising key variables from each of the five models and add a new variable that proxies for the degree of diversification within the firm. The degree of diversification is shown to be negatively associated with the risk of bankruptcy. This more general model outperforms the existing models in a variety of in-sample and out-of-sample tests.

The risks and returns of new public management : political business

Purpose – This article aims to consider success in terms of the financial returns and risks of new public management (NPM) in state-owned enterprises (SOEs). Design/methodology/approach – Financial returns of New Zealand SOEs were examined through a review of their annual reports over a five-year period. Dimensions of risk were examined through interviews conducted in two phases over a two-year period with senior executives from 12 of the (then) 17 SOEs operating in New Zealand. Findings – Findings indicate the potential for SOEs to operate as profitable government investments, with clear support for positive financial returns under NPM. However, variations noted within individual SOEs also indicate that profitable and commercial operations may not be possible in all cases. An examination of the risks associated with SOEs’ operations reveals a number of dimensions of risk, encompassing financial, political (including regulatory), reputational, and public accountability aspects. Practical implications – There is a need for an enhanced awareness on the part of internal and external stakeholders (such as the government and general public) of the risks SOEs face in pursuing higher levels of profitability. Also required, is a more acute understanding on the part of internal and external stakeholders (e.g. government and the public) of the need for SOEs to manage the range of risks identified, given the potentially delicate balance between risk and return. Originality/value – While previous studies have considered the financial returns of SOEs, or the risks faced by the public sector in terms of accountability, few have addressed the two issues collectively in a single context.

Modeling random effect and excess zeros in road traffic accident prediction

Poisson distribution has often been used for count like accident data. Negative Binomial (NB) distribution has been adopted in the count data to take care of the over-dispersion problem. However, Poisson and NB distributions are incapable of taking into account some unobserved heterogeneities due to spatial and temporal effects of accident data. To overcome this problem, Random Effect models have been developed. Again another challenge with existing traffic accident prediction models is the distribution of excess zero accident observations in some accident data. Although Zero-Inflated Poisson (ZIP) model is capable of handling the dual-state system in accident data with excess zero observations, it does not accommodate the within-location correlation and between-location correlation heterogeneities which are the basic motivations for the need of the Random Effect models. This paper proposes an effective way of fitting ZIP model with location specific random effects and for model calibration and assessment the Bayesian analysis is recommended.