Forecasting regional crop production using SOI phases: an example for the Australian peanut industry

Using peanuts as an example, a generic methodology is presented to forward-estimate regional crop production and associated climatic risks based on phases of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Yield fluctuations caused by a highly variable rainfall environment are of concern to peanut processing and marketing bodies. The industry could profitably use forecasts of likely production to adjust their operations strategically. Significant, physically based lag-relationships exist between an index of ocean/atmosphere El Nino/Southern Oscillation phenomenon and future rainfall in Australia and elsewhere. Combining knowledge of SOI phases in November and December with output from a dynamic simulation model allows the derivation of yield probability distributions based on historic rainfall data. This information is available shortly after planting a crop and at least 3-5 months prior to harvest. The study shows that in years when the November-December SOI phase is positive there is an 80% chance of exceeding average district yields. Conversely, in years when the November-December SOI phase is either negative or rapidly falling there is only a 5% chance of exceeding average district yields, but a 95% chance of below average yields. This information allows the industry to adjust strategically for the expected volume of production. The study shows that simulation models can enhance SOI signals contained in rainfall distributions by discriminating between useful and damaging rainfall events. The methodology can be applied to other industries and regions.

Whither our Art? Clinical Wisdom & Evidence-based Medicine

The relationship between evidence-based medicine (EBM) and clinical judgement is the subject of conceptual and practical dispute. For example, EBM and clinical guidelines are seen to increasingly dominate medical decision-making at the expense of other, human elements, and to threaten the art of medicine. Clinical wisdom always remains open to question. We want to know why particular beliefs are held, and the epistemological status of claims based in wisdom or experience. The paper critically appraises a number of claims and distinctions, and attempts to clarify the connections between EBM, clinical experience and judgement, and the objective and evaluative categories of medicine. I conclude that to demystify clinical wisdom is not to devalue it. EBM ought not be conceived as needing to be limited or balanced by clinical wisdom, since if its language is translatable into terms comprehensible and applicable to individuals, it helps constitute clinical wisdom. Failure to appreciate this constitutive relation will help perpetuate medical paternalism and delay the adoption of properly evidence-based practice, which would be both unethical and unwise.

Nutritional strategies for the prevention of hypocalcaemia at calving for dairy cows in pasture-based systems

This review considers the current literature on the macro-mineral nutrition of the soon-to-calve, or transition, dairy cow. Calcium is the main focus, since milk fever (clinical hypocalcaemia) appears to be the most common mineral-related problem faced by the transition cow Australia-wide. The importance of minimising calcium intake and optimising the balance of the key dietary electrolytes, sodium, potassium, sulfate, and chloride, in the weeks before calving is highlighted. Excess dietary potassium can, in some situations, induce milk fever, perhaps even more effectively than excess calcium. Excess sodium remains under suspicion. In contrast, excess dietary chlorine and, to a lesser extent, sulfur can improve the ability of the cow to maintain calcium homeostasis. Diets that promote either a hypomagnesaemia or hyperphosphataemia have also the potential to precipitate milk fever at calving. Current prevention strategies focus on the use of forages with moderate to low levels of calcium, potassium, and sodium, and also rely on or utilise addition of chloride and sulfate in the form of 'anionic' feeds. Anionic salts are one example of an anionic feed. However, legitimate questions remain as to the effectiveness of anionic salts in pasture-feeding systems. The causes and prevention of milk fever are considered from the perspective of the variety of Australian feedbases. Impediments to the use of anionic feeds in Australia feeding systems are outlined. The potential for improving maternal reserves of calcium around calving to reduce the risk of milk fever is also discussed.

Work domain analysis and sensors I: principles and simple example

In this paper we establish a foundation for understanding the instrumentation needs of complex dynamic systems if ecological interface design (EID)-based interfaces are to be robust in the face of instrumentation failures. EID-based interfaces often include configural displays which reveal the higher-order properties of complex systems. However, concerns have been expressed that such displays might be misleading when instrumentation is unreliable or unavailable. Rasmussen's abstraction hierarchy (AH) formalism can be extended to include representations of sensors near the functions or properties about which they provide information, resulting in what we call a sensor-annotated abstraction hierarchy. Sensor-annotated AHs help the analyst determine the impact of different instrumentation engineering policies on higher-order system information by showing how the data provided from individual sensors propagates within and across levels of abstraction in the AH. The use of sensor-annotated AHs with a configural display is illustrated with a simple water reservoir example. We argue that if EID is to be effectively employed in the design of interfaces for complex systems, then the information needs of the human operator need to be considered at the earliest stages of system development while instrumentation requirements are being formulated. In this way, Rasmussen's AH promotes a formative approach to instrumentation engineering. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Knowledge-based system on optimum design of liquid retaining structures with genetic algorithms

This paper delineates the development of a prototype hybrid knowledge-based system for the optimum design of liquid retaining structures by coupling the blackboard architecture, an expert system shell VISUAL RULE STUDIO and genetic algorithm (GA). Through custom-built interactive graphical user interfaces under a user-friendly environment, the user is directed throughout the design process, which includes preliminary design, load specification, model generation, finite element analysis, code compliance checking, and member sizing optimization. For structural optimization, GA is applied to the minimum cost design of structural systems with discrete reinforced concrete sections. The design of a typical example of the liquid retaining structure is illustrated. The results demonstrate extraordinarily converging speed as near-optimal solutions are acquired after merely exploration of a small portion of the search space. This system can act as a consultant to assist novice designers in the design of liquid retaining structures.

A coupled knowledge-based expert system for design of liquid-retaining structures

This paper describes a coupled knowledge-based system (KBS) for the design of liquid-retaining structures, which can handle both the symbolic knowledge processing based on engineering heuristics in the preliminary synthesis stage and the extensive numerical crunching involved in the detailed analysis stage. The prototype system is developed by employing blackboard architecture and a commercial shell VISUAL RULE STUDIO. Its present scope covers design of three types of liquid-retaining structures, namely, a rectangular shape with one compartment, a rectangular shape with two compartments and a circular shape. Through custom-built interactive graphical user interfaces, the user is directed throughout the design process, which includes preliminary design, load specification, model generation, finite element analysis, code compliance checking and member sizing optimization. It is also integrated with various relational databases that provide the system with sectional properties, moment and shear coefficients and final member details. This system can act as a consultant to assist novice designers in the design of liquid-retaining structures with increase in efficiency and optimization of design output and automated record keeping. The design of a typical example of the liquid-retaining structure is also illustrated. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

Applications of artificial intelligence to condition-based maintenance

In this paper we discuss interesting developments of expert systems for machine diagnosis and condition-based maintenance. We review some elements of condition-based maintenance and its applications, expert systems for machine diagnosis, and an example of machine diagnosis. In the last section we note some problems to be resolved so that expert systems for machine diagnosis may gain wider acceptance in the future.

The role of Lifelong Learning in the creation of a knowledge-based society for Europe: european policies

Link do editor: http://www.igi-global.com/chapter/role-lifelong-learning-creation-european/13314

The Role of lifelong learning in creation of a european knowledge-based society

The dominant discourse in education and training policies, at the turn of the millennium, was on lifelong learning (LLL) in the context of a knowledge-based society. As Green points (2002, pp. 611-612) several factors contribute to this global trend: The demographic change: In most advanced countries, the average age of the population is increasing, as people live longer; The effects of globalisation: Including both economic restructuring and cultural change which have impacts on the world of education; Global economic restructuring: Which causes, for example, a more intense demand for a higher order of skills; the intensified economic competition, forcing a wave of restructuring and creating enormous pressure to train and retrain the workforce In parallel, the “significance of the international division of labour cannot be underestimated for higher education”, as pointed out by Jarvis (1999, p. 250). This author goes on to argue that globalisation has exacerbated differentiation in the labour market, with the First World converting faster to a knowledge economy and a service society, while a great deal of the actual manufacturing is done elsewhere.

A new cloning system based on the OprI lipoprotein for the production of recombinant bacterial cell wall-derived immunogenic formulations

The conjugation of antigens with ligands of pattern recognition receptors (PRR) is emerging as a promising strategy for the modulation of specific immunity. Here, we describe a new Escherichia coli system for the cloning and expression of heterologous antigens in fusion with the OprI lipoprotein, a TLR ligand from the Pseudomonas aeruginosa outer membrane (OM). Analysis of the OprI expressed by this system reveals a triacylated lipid moiety mainly composed by palmitic acid residues. By offering a tight regulation of expression and allowing for antigen purification by metal affinity chromatography, the new system circumvents the major drawbacks of former versions. In addition, the anchoring of OprI to the OM of the host cell is further explored for the production of novel recombinant bacterial cell wall-derived formulations (OM fragments and OM vesicles) with distinct potential for PRR activation. As an example, the African swine fever virus ORF A104R was cloned and the recombinant antigen was obtained in the three formulations. Overall, our results validate a new system suitable for the production of immunogenic formulations that can be used for the development of experimental vaccines and for studies on the modulation of acquired immunity.

Development of novel ionic liquids based on valproate anion

Valproic acid (2-propyl pentanoic acid) is a pharmaceutical drug used for treatment of epileptic seizures absence, tonic-clonic (grand mal), complex partial seizures, and mania in bipolar disorder [1]. Valproic acid is a slightly soluble in water and therefore as active pharmaceutical ingredient it is most commonly applied in form of sodium or magnesium valproate salt [1].However the list of adverse effects of these compounds is large and includes among others: tiredness, tremor, sedation and gastrointestinal disturbances [2]. Ionic liquids (ILs) are promising compounds as Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs)[3]. In this context, the combinations of the valproate anion with appropriate cation when ILs and salts are formed can significantly alter valproate physical, chemical and thermal properties.[4] This methodology can be used for drug modification (alteration of drug solubility in water, lipids, bioavailability, etc)[2] and therefore can eliminate some adverse effect of the drugs related to drug toxicity due for example to its solubility in water and lipids (interaction with intestines). Herein, we will discuss the development of ILs based on valproate anion (Figure 1) prepared according a recent optimized and sustainable acid-base neutralization method [4]. The organic cations such as cetylpyridinium, choline and imidazolium structures were selected based on their biocompatibility and recent applications in pharmacy [3]. All novel API-ILs based on valproate have been studied in terms of their physical, chemical (viscosity, density, solubility) and thermal (calorimetric studies) properties as well as their biological activity.

Enabling inter-domain transactions in bridge-based hybrid wired/wireless PROFIBUS networks

The marriage of emerging information technologies with control technologies is a major driving force that, in the context of the factory-floor, is creating an enormous eagerness for extending the capabilities of currently available fieldbus networks to cover functionalities not considered up to a recent past. Providing wireless capabilities to such type of communication networks is a big share of that effort. The RFieldbus European project is just one example, where PROFIBUS was provided with suitable extensions for implementing hybrid wired/wireless communication systems. In RFieldbus, interoperability between wired and wireless components is achieved by the use specific intermediate networking systems operating as repeaters, thus creating a single logical ring (SLR) network. The main advantage of the SLR approach is that the effort for protocol extensions is not significant. However, a multiple logical ring (MLR) approach provides traffic and error isolation between different network segments. This concept was introduced in, where an approach for a bridge-based architecture was briefly outlined. This paper will focus on the details of the inter-Domain Protocol (IDP), which is responsible for handling transactions between different network domains (wired or wireless) running the PROFIBUS protocol.

Profibus protocol extensions for enabling inter-cell mobility in bridge-based hybrid wired/wireless networks

Future industrial control/multimedia applications will increasingly impose or benefit from wireless and mobile communications. Therefore, there is an enormous eagerness for extending currently available industrial communications networks with wireless and mobility capabilities. The RFieldbus European project is just one example, where a PROFIBUS-based hybrid (wired/wireless) architecture was specified and implemented. In the RFieldbus architecture, interoperability between wired and wireless components is achieved by the use specific intermediate networking systems operating at the physical layer level, i.e. operating as repeaters. Instead, in this paper we will focus on a bridge-based approach, which presents several advantages. This concept was introduced in (Ferreira, et al., 2002), where a bridge-based approach was briefly outlined. Then, a specific Inter-Domain Protocol (IDP) was proposed to handle the Inter-Domain transactions in such a bridge-based approach (Ferreira, et al., 2003a). The major contribution of this paper is in extending these previous works by describing the protocol extensions to support inter-cell mobility in such a bridge-based hybrid wired/wireless PROFIBUS networks.

Change Processes and Future Perspectives in the Knowledge Society. The Example of Clothing and Textile Industry

The paper examines change processes und future perspectives in the knowledge society. It presents the clothing and textile industry as an example for a transforming industry in a global economy. The paper reviews existing future studies, which have surveyed change processes and future developments in the clothing and textile industry. Main goals of the review are the identification of changes in work and the description of the restructuring of global value chains within the clothing and textile sector. The paper also highlights major current trends, drivers of change and future prospects in this sector.

Embedding instruments & modules into an IEEE1451-FPGA-Based Weblab infrastructure

Adopting standard-based weblab infrastructures can be an added value for spreading their influence and acceptance in education. This paper suggests a solution based on the IEEE1451.0 Std. and FPGA technology for creating reconfigurable weblab infrastructures using Instruments and Modules (I&Ms) described through standard Hardware Description Language (HDL) files. It describes a methodology for creating and binding I&Ms into an IEEE1451-module embedded in a FPGA-based board able to be remotely controlled/accessed using IEEE1451-HTTP commands. At the end, an example of a step-motor controller module bond to that IEEE1451-module is described.