Megtakarítási típusok - egy adaptív-evolúciós megközelítés = Types of saving - an adaptive-evolutionary approach

A közgazdaságtanban az ágensalapú modellezés egyik alkalmazási területe a makro ökonómia. Ebben a tanulmányban néhány népszerű megtakarítási szabály létét feltételezve adaptív-evolúciós megközelítésben endogén módon próbálunk következtetni e szabályok relatív életképességére. Három különböző típusú ágenst vezetünk be: egy prudens, egy rövidlátó és egy, a permanensjövedelem-elméletnek megfelelően működőt. Rendkívül erős szelekciós nyomás mellett a prudens típus egyértelműen kiszorítja a másik kettőt. A második legéletképesebbnek a rövidlátó típus tűnik, de már közepes szelekciós nyomásnál sem tűnik el egyik típus sem. Szokásos tőkehatékonyság mellett a prudens típus túlzott beruházási tendenciát visz a gazdaságba, és a gazdaság az aranykori megtakarítási rátánál magasabbat ér el. A hitelkorlátok oldása még nagyobb mértékű túlzott beruházáshoz vezethet, a hitelek mennyiségének növekedése mellett a tőketulajdonosok mintegy "kizsákmányoltatják" magukat azokkal, akiknek nincs tőkejövedelmük. A hosszú távú átlagos fogyasztás szempontjából a három típus kiegyensúlyozott aránya adja a legjobb eredményt, ugyanakkor ez jóval nagyobb ingadozással jár, mint amikor csak prudens típusú háztartások léteznek. ____ Agent-based modelling techniques have been employed for some time in macroeconomics. This paper tests some popular saving rules in an adaptive-evolutionary context of looking at their relative survival values. The three types are prudent, short-sighted, and responsive to the permanent-income hypothesis. It is found that where selection pressure is very high, only the prudent type persists. The second most resilient seems to be the short-sighted type, but all three coexist even at medium levels of selection pressure. When the efficiency of capital approaches the level usually assumed in macroeconomics, the prudent type drives the economy towards excessive accumulation of capital, i. e. a long-term savings rate that exceeds the golden rule. If credit constraints are relaxed, this tendency strengthens as credit grows and capital-owners seem to allow themselves to be exploited" by workers. From the angle of average consumption, the best outcome is obtained from a random distribution of types, although this is accompanied by higher volatility.

A generative design system based on evolutionary and mathematical functions

Previous work by Professor John Frazer on Evolutionary Architecture provides a basis for the development of a system evolving architectural envelopes in a generic and abstract manner. Recent research by the authors has focused on the implementation of a virtual environment for the automatic generation and exploration of complex forms and architectural envelopes based on solid modelling techniques and the integration of evolutionary algorithms, enhanced computational and mathematical models. Abstract data types are introduced for genotypes in a genetic algorithm order to develop complex models using generative and evolutionary computing techniques. Multi-objective optimisation techniques are employed for defining the fitness function in the evaluation process.

An evolutionary framework for enhancing design

A computational framework for enhancing design in an evolutionary approach with a dynamic hierarchical structure is presented in this paper. This framework can be used as an evolutionary kernel for building computer-supported design systems. It provides computational components for generating, adapting and exploring alternative design solutions at multiple levels of abstraction with hierarchically structured design representations. In this paper, preliminary experimental results of using this framework in several design applications are presented.

A natural model for architecture : the nature of the evolutionary model 1995

John Frazer's architectural work is inspired by living and generative processes. Both evolutionary and revolutionary, it explores informatin ecologies and the dynamics of the spaces between objects. Fuelled by an interest in the cybernetic work of Gordon Pask and Norbert Wiener, and the possibilities of the computer and the "new science" it has facilitated, Frazer and his team of collaborators have conducted a series of experiments that utilize genetic algorithms, cellular automata, emergent behaviour, complexity and feedback loops to create a truly dynamic architecture. Frazer studied at the Architectural Association (AA) in London from 1963 to 1969, and later became unit master of Diploma Unit 11 there. He was subsequently Director of Computer-Aided Design at the University of Ulter - a post he held while writing An Evolutionary Architecture in 1995 - and a lecturer at the University of Cambridge. In 1983 he co-founded Autographics Software Ltd, which pioneered microprocessor graphics. Frazer was awarded a person chair at the University of Ulster in 1984. In Frazer's hands, architecture becomes machine-readable, formally open-ended and responsive. His work as computer consultant to Cedric Price's Generator Project of 1976 (see P84)led to the development of a series of tools and processes; these have resulted in projects such as the Calbuild Kit (1985) and the Universal Constructor (1990). These subsequent computer-orientated architectural machines are makers of architectural form beyond the full control of the architect-programmer. Frazer makes much reference to the multi-celled relationships found in nature, and their ongoing morphosis in response to continually changing contextual criteria. He defines the elements that describe his evolutionary architectural model thus: "A genetic code script, rules for the development of the code, mapping of the code to a virtual model, the nature of the environment for the development of the model and, most importantly, the criteria for selection. In setting out these parameters for designing evolutionary architectures, Frazer goes beyond the usual notions of architectural beauty and aesthetics. Nevertheless his work is not without an aesthetic: some pieces are a frenzy of mad wire, while others have a modularity that is reminiscent of biological form. Algorithms form the basis of Frazer's designs. These algorithms determine a variety of formal results dependent on the nature of the information they are given. His work, therefore, is always dynamic, always evolving and always different. Designing with algorithms is also critical to other architects featured in this book, such as Marcos Novak (see p150). Frazer has made an unparalleled contribution to defining architectural possibilities for the twenty-first century, and remains an inspiration to architects seeking to create responsive environments. Architects were initially slow to pick up on the opportunities that the computer provides. These opportunities are both representational and spatial: computers can help architects draw buildings and, more importantly, they can help architects create varied spaces, both virtual and actual. Frazer's work was groundbreaking in this respect, and well before its time.