Using epidemiological models to estimate the health effects of diet behaviour change: the example of tailored fruit and vegetable promotion

Objective: To explore the use of epidemiological modelling for the estimation of health effects of behaviour change interventions, using the example of computer-tailored nutrition education aimed at fruit and vegetable consumption in The Netherlands. Design: The effects of the intervention on changes in consumption were obtained from an earlier evaluation study. The effect on health outcomes was estimated using an epidemiological multi-state life table model. input data for the model consisted of relative risk estimates for cardiovascular disease and cancers, data on disease occurrence and mortality, and survey data on the consumption of fruits and vegetables. Results: if the computer-tailored nutrition education reached the entire adult population and the effects were sustained, it could result in a mortality decrease of 0.4 to 0.7% and save 72 to 115 life-years per 100000 persons aged 25 years or older. Healthy life expectancy is estimated to increase by 32.7 days for men and 25.3 days for women. The true effect is likely to lie between this theoretical maximum and zero effect, depending mostly on durability of behaviour change and reach of the intervention. Conclusion: Epidemiological models can be used to estimate the health impact of health promotion interventions.

Developing an index of dietary estimation of fermentable carbohydrate to allow dietary analysis for epidemiological studies

It has been proposed that long-term consumption of diets rich in non-digestible carbohydrates (NDCs), such as cereals, fruit and vegetables might protect against several chronic diseases, however, it has been difficult to fully establish their impact on health in epidemiology studies. The wide range properties of the different NDCs may dilution their impact when they are combined in one category for statistical comparisons in correlations or multivariate analysis. Several mechanisms have been suggested to explain the protective effects of NDCs, including increased stool bulk, dilution of carcinogens in the colonic lumen, reduced transit time, lowering pH, and bacterial fermentation to short chain fatty acids (SCFA) in the colon. However, it is very difficult to measure SCFA in humans in vivo with any accuracy, so epidemiological studies on the impact of SCFA are not feasible. Most studies use dietary fibre (DF) or Non-Starch Polysaccharides (NSP) intake to estimate the levels, but not all fibres or NSP are equally fermentable. It has been proposed that long-term consumption of diets rich in non-digestible carbohydrates (NDCs), such as cereals, fruit and vegetables might protect against several chronic diseases, however, it has been difficult to fully establish their impact on health in epidemiology studies. The wide range properties of the different NDCs may dilution their impact when they are combined in one category for statistical comparisons in correlations or multivariate analysis. Several mechanisms have been suggested to explain the protective effects of NDCs, including increased stool bulk, dilution of carcinogens in the colonic lumen, reduced transit time, lowering pH, and bacterial fermentation to short chain fatty acids (SCFA) in the colon. However, it is very difficult to measure SCFA in humans in vivo with any accuracy, so epidemiological studies on the impact of SCFA are not feasible. Most studies use dietary fibre (DF) or Non-Starch Polysaccharides (NSP) intake to estimate the levels, but not all fibres or NSP are equally fermentable. The first aim of this thesis was the development of the equations used to estimate the amount of FC that reaches the human colon and is fermented fully to SCFA by the colonic bacteria. Therefore, several studies were examined for evidence to determine the different percentages of each type of NDCs that should be included in the final model, based on how much NDCs entered the colon intact and also to what extent they were fermented to SCFA in vivo. Our model equations are FC-DF or NSP$ 1: 100 % Soluble + 10 % insoluble + 100 % NDOs¥ + 5 % TS** FC-DF or NSP 2: 100 % Soluble + 50 % insoluble + 100 % NDOs + 5 % TS FC-DF* or NSP 3: 100 % Soluble + 10 % insoluble + 100 % NDOs + 10 % TS FC-DF or NSP 4: 100 % Soluble + 50 % insoluble + 100 % NDOs + 10 % TS *DF: Dietary fibre; **TS: Total starch; $NSP: non-starch polysaccharide; ¥NDOs: non-digestible oligosaccharide The second study of this thesis aimed to examine all four predicted FC-DF and FC-NSP equations developed, to estimate FC from dietary records against urinary colonic NDCs fermentation biomarkers. The main finding of a cross-sectional comparison of habitual diet with urinary excretion of SCFA products, showed weak but significant correlation between the 24 h urinary excretion of SCFA and acetate with the estimated FC-DF 4 and FC-NSP 4 when considering all of the study participants (n = 122). Similar correlations were observed with the data for valid participants (n = 78). It was also observed that FC-DF and FC-NSP had positive correlations with 24 h urinary acetate and SCFA compared with DF and NSP alone. Hence, it could be hypothesised that using the developed index to estimate FC in the diet form dietary records, might predict SCFA production in the colon in vivo in humans. The next study in this thesis aimed to validate the FC equations developed using in vitro models of small intestinal digestion and human colon fermentation. The main findings in these in vitro studies were that there were several strong agreements between the amounts of SCFA produced after actual in vitro fermentation of single fibre and different mixtures of NDCs, and those predicted by the estimated FC from our developed equation FC-DF 4. These results which demonstrated a strong relationship between SCFA production in vitro from a range of fermentations of single fibres and mixtures of NDCs and that from the predicted FC equation, support the use of the FC equation for estimation of FC from dietary records. Therefore, we can conclude that the newly developed predicted equations have been deemed a valid and practical tool to assess SCFA productions for in vitro fermentation.

An integrated model of care for inflammatory bowel disease sufferers in Australia: development and the effects of its implementation.

BACKGROUND: Psychological comorbidities are associated with poor outcome and increased healthcare utilization in patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). However, a model of care addressing the biopsychosocial dimension of disease is not routinely applied in IBD. This review describes the development of such a model and the effects of its implementation in a hospital-based cohort of patients with IBD. METHODS: Three different approaches were used: 1) collecting baseline epidemiological data on mental health comorbidities; 2) raising awareness of and targeting mental health problems; 3) examining the effects of the model implementation. RESULTS: High rates of anxiety and depressive symptoms (36% and 13%, respectively) that are maintained over time were identified in IBD patients presenting at a metropolitan teaching hospital. Patients with documented psychological comorbidities were more likely to be hospitalized than those without (odds ratio [OR] = 4.13, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.25, 13.61). Improvements in disease activity, anxiety, depression, quality of life, and coping have been noted when cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) was provided to patients. A drop in the use of opiates (P = 0.037) and hospitalization rates (from 48% to 30%) in IBD patients has been noted as a result of introduction of the changed model of care. In addition, the mean total cost of inpatient care was lower for IBD patients than controls (US$12,857.48 [US$15,236.79] vs. US$ 30,467.78 [US$ 53,760.20], P = 0.005). CONCLUSION: Our data to date suggest that an integrated model of care for patients with IBD may yield superior long-term outcomes in terms of medication use and hospitalization rates and reduce healthcare costs.

"Portuguese Observatory of Taeniasis and Cysticercosis": A "One Health" example for epidemiological surveillance of one neglected disease in a European country

Cysticercosis results from the ingestion Taenia solium eggs directly by faecal-oral route or contaminated food or water. Human tapeworm carriers who have become infected after ingesting pork meat contaminated with cysticerci release these eggs. Cysticercosis occurs after tapeworm eggs are ingested by an intermediate host (pig or human) and then hatch, migrate, and lodge in the host's tissues, where they develop onto larval cysticerci. When they lodged in the central nervous system of humans, results in the disease condition called Neurocysticercosis (NCC), with a heterogeneous manifestations depending of the locations of cysts, number, size and their stage of evolution (1). Consequently the prognostic ranges from asymptomatic to situations leading to death in 2% to 9.8%. of cases (7) In swine’s there are few studies, but recent works have proved that animals, for the same reasons, also have neurological abnormalities, expressed by seizures, stereotypic walk in circles, chewing motions with foamy salivation included tonic muscle contractions followed by a sudden diminution in all muscle tone leading to collapse (2). Conventional domestic wastewater treatment processes may not be totally effective in inactivating parasites eggs from Taenia solium, allowing some contamination of soils and agricultural products (11). In Portugal there are some evidence of aggregation of human cysticercosis cases in specific regions, bases in ecological design studies (6). There are few information about human tapeworm carriers and social and economic factors associated with them. Success in knowledge and consequently in lowering transmission is limited by the complex network of biological and social factors that maintain the spread. Effective control of mostly zoonosis require One Health approach, after a real knowledge and transparency in the information provided by the institutions responsible for both animal and human health, allowing sustained interventions targeted at the transmission cycle's crucial nodes. In general, the model used to control, reflects a rural reality, where pigs are raised freely, poor sanitation conditions and incipient sanitary inspection. In cysticercosis, pigs are obligate intermediate hosts and so considered as first targets for control and used as sentinels to monitor environmental T. solium contamination (3). Usually environmental contamination with Taenia spp. eggs is a key issue in most of studies with landscape factors influencing presence of Taenia spp. antigens in both pigs and humans (5). Soil-related factors as well as socio-economic and behavioural factors are associated with the emergence of significant clustering human cysticercosis (4,5). However scarce studies has been produced in urban environmental and in developed countries with the finality to characterize the spatial pattern. There are still few data available regarding its prevalence and spatial distribution; Transmission patterns are likely to exhibit correlations as housing conditions, water supply, basic sanitation, schooling and birthplace of the individual or relatives, more than pigs rearing free, soil conditions (9). As a matter of fact, tapeworm carriers from endemic zones can auto-infect or transmit infection to other people or arrive already suffering NCC (as a result of travelling to or being a citizen from an endemic cysticercosis country) to a free cysticercosis country. Transmission is fecal-oral; this includes transmission through person-to-person contact, through autoinfection, or through contaminated food This has been happening in different continents as North America (5.4–18% been autochthonous), Europe and Australia (7). Recently, case reports of NCC have also emerged from Muslim countries. (10). Actually, different papers relate an epidemic situation in Spain and Portugal (7, 8). However the kind of study done does not authorize such conclusion. There are no evidence that infections were acquired in Portugal and there are not characterized the mode of transmission. Papers with these kind of information will be allow to have economic consequences resulted from artificial trade barriers with serious consequences for pig producers and pig meat trade. We need transparency in information’s that allow provide the basis to support the development and targeting of future effective control programmes (and prove we need that). So, to have a real picture of the disease, it is necessary integrate data from human, animal and environmental factors surrounding human and pig cases to characterize the pattern of the transmission. The design needs to be able to capture unexpected, and not common outcomes (routine data). We need to think “One Health” to get a genuine image of the situation.

An approximate method for the solution of an influence function foil rolling model

Fleck and Johnson (Int. J. Mech. Sci. 29 (1987) 507) and Fleck et al. (Proc. Inst. Mech. Eng. 206 (1992) 119) have developed foil rolling models which allow for large deformations in the roll profile, including the possibility that the rolls flatten completely. However, these models require computationally expensive iterative solution techniques. A new approach to the approximate solution of the Fleck et al. (1992) Influence Function Model has been developed using both analytic and approximation techniques. The numerical difficulties arising from solving an integral equation in the flattened region have been reduced by applying an Inverse Hilbert Transform to get an analytic expression for the pressure. The method described in this paper is applicable to cases where there is or there is not a flat region.