894 resultados para Epidemics spatial analysis


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There is a growing call for inventories that evaluate geographic patterns in diversity of plant genetic resources maintained on farm and in species' natural populations in order to enhance their use and conservation. Such evaluations are relevant for useful tropical and subtropical tree species, as many of these species are still undomesticated, or in incipient stages of domestication and local populations can offer yet-unknown traits of high value to further domestication. For many outcrossing species, such as most trees, inbreeding depression can be an issue, and genetic diversity is important to sustain local production. Diversity is also crucial for species to adapt to environmental changes. This paper explores the possibilities of incorporating molecular marker data into Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to allow visualization and better understanding of spatial patterns of genetic diversity as a key input to optimize conservation and use of plant genetic resources, based on a case study of cherimoya (Annona cherimola Mill.), a Neotropical fruit tree species. We present spatial analyses to (1) improve the understanding of spatial distribution of genetic diversity of cherimoya natural stands and cultivated trees in Ecuador, Bolivia and Peru based on microsatellite molecular markers (SSRs); and (2) formulate optimal conservation strategies by revealing priority areas for in situ conservation, and identifying existing diversity gaps in ex situ collections. We found high levels of allelic richness, locally common alleles and expected heterozygosity in cherimoya's putative centre of origin, southern Ecuador and northern Peru, whereas levels of diversity in southern Peru and especially in Bolivia were significantly lower. The application of GIS on a large microsatellite dataset allows a more detailed prioritization of areas for in situ conservation and targeted collection across the Andean distribution range of cherimoya than previous studies could do, i.e. at province and department level in Ecuador and Peru, respectively.

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Because of the high number of crashes occurring on highways, it is necessary to intensify the search for new tools that help in understanding their causes. This research explores the use of a geographic information system (GIS) for an integrated analysis, taking into account two accident-related factors: design consistency (DC) (based on vehicle speed) and available sight distance (ASD) (based on visibility). Both factors require specific GIS software add-ins, which are explained. Digital terrain models (DTMs), vehicle paths, road centerlines, a speed prediction model, and crash data are integrated in the GIS. The usefulness of this approach has been assessed through a study of more than 500 crashes. From a regularly spaced grid, the terrain (bare ground) has been modeled through a triangulated irregular network (TIN). The length of the roads analyzed is greater than 100 km. Results have shown that DC and ASD could be related to crashes in approximately 4% of cases. In order to illustrate the potential of GIS, two crashes are fully analyzed: a car rollover after running off road on the right side and a rear-end collision of two moving vehicles. Although this procedure uses two software add-ins that are available only for ArcGIS, the study gives a practical demonstration of the suitability of GIS for conducting integrated studies of road safety.

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This paper empirically analyses a dataset of more than 7,300 agricultural land sales transactions from 2001 and 2007 to identify the factors influencing agricultural land prices in Bavaria. We use a general spatial model, which combines a spatial lag and a spatial error model, and in addition account for endogeneity introduced by the spatially lagged dependent variable as well as other explanatory variables. Our findings confirm the strong influence of agricultural factors such as land productivity, of variables describing the regional land market structure, and of non-agricultural factors such as urban pressure on agricultural land prices. Moreover, the involvement of public authorities as a seller or buyer increases sales prices in Bavaria. We find a significant capitalisation of government support payments into agricultural land, where a decrease of direct payments by 1% would decrease land prices in 2007 and 2001 by 0.27% and 0.06%, respectively. In addition, we confirm strong spatial relationships in our dataset. Neglecting this leads to biased estimates, especially if aggregated data is used. We find that the price of a specific plot increases by 0.24% when sales prices in surrounding areas increase by 1%.

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Cover title: Spatial analysis applied to natural resource management.

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Tropical deforestation is the major contemporary threat to global biodiversity, because a diminishing extent of tropical forests supports the majority of the Earth's biodiversity. Forest clearing is often spatially concentrated in regions where human land use pressures, either planned or unplanned, increase the likelihood of deforestation. However, it is not a random process, but often moves in waves originating from settled areas. We investigate the spatial dynamics of land cover change in a tropical deforestation hotspot in the Colombian Amazon. We apply a forest cover zoning approach which permitted: calculation of colonization speed; comparative spatial analysis of patterns of deforestation and regeneration; analysis of spatial patterns of mature and recently regenerated forests; and the identification of local-level hotspots experiencing the fastest deforestation or regeneration. The colonization frontline moved at an average of 0.84 km yr(-1) from 1989 to 2002, resulting in the clearing of 3400 ha yr(-1) of forests beyond the 90% forest cover line. The dynamics of forest clearing varied across the colonization front according to the amount of forest in the landscape, but was spatially concentrated in well-defined 'local hotspots' of deforestation and forest regeneration. Behind the deforestation front, the transformed landscape mosaic is composed of cropping and grazing lands interspersed with mature forest fragments and patches of recently regenerated forests. We discuss the implications of the patterns of forest loss and fragmentation for biodiversity conservation within a framework of dynamic conservation planning.

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In order to gain a greater understanding of firms' 'environmental behaviour' this paper explores the factors that influence firms' emissions intensities and provides the first analysis of the determinants of firm level carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Focussing on Japan, the paper also examines whether firms' CO2 emissions are influenced by the emissions of neighbouring firms and other possible sources of spatial correlation. Results suggest that size, the capital-labour ratio, R&D expenditure, the extent of exports and concern for public profile are the key determinants of CO2 emissions. Local lobbying pressure, as captured by regional community characteristics, does not appear to play a role, however emissions are found to be spatially correlated. This raises implications for the manner in which the environmental performance of firms is modelled in future. © 2013 Elsevier Inc.

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This paper presents the results of a multivariate spatial analysis of 38 vowel formant variables in the language of 402 informants from 236 cities from across the contiguous United States, based on the acoustic data from the Atlas of North American English (Labov, Ash & Boberg, 2006). The results of the analysis both confirm and challenge the results of the Atlas. Most notably, while the analysis identifies similar patterns as the Atlas in the West and the Southeast, the analysis finds that the Midwest and the Northeast are distinct dialect regions that are considerably stronger than the traditional Midland and Northern dialect region indentified in the Atlas. The analysis also finds evidence that a western vowel shift is actively shaping the language of the Western United States.

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One of the global phenomena with threats to environmental health and safety is artisanal mining. There are ambiguities in the manner in which an ore-processing facility operates which hinders the mining capacity of these miners in Ghana. These problems are reviewed on the basis of current socio-economic, health and safety, environmental, and use of rudimentary technologies which limits fair-trade deals to miners. This research sought to use an established data-driven, geographic information (GIS)-based system employing the spatial analysis approach for locating a centralized processing facility within the Wassa Amenfi-Prestea Mining Area (WAPMA) in the Western region of Ghana. A spatial analysis technique that utilizes ModelBuilder within the ArcGIS geoprocessing environment through suitability modeling will systematically and simultaneously analyze a geographical dataset of selected criteria. The spatial overlay analysis methodology and the multi-criteria decision analysis approach were selected to identify the most preferred locations to site a processing facility. For an optimal site selection, seven major criteria including proximity to settlements, water resources, artisanal mining sites, roads, railways, tectonic zones, and slopes were considered to establish a suitable location for a processing facility. Site characterizations and environmental considerations, incorporating identified constraints such as proximity to large scale mines, forest reserves and state lands to site an appropriate position were selected. The analysis was limited to criteria that were selected and relevant to the area under investigation. Saaty’s analytical hierarchy process was utilized to derive relative importance weights of the criteria and then a weighted linear combination technique was applied to combine the factors for determination of the degree of potential site suitability. The final map output indicates estimated potential sites identified for the establishment of a facility centre. The results obtained provide intuitive areas suitable for consideration

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This paper studies the relationship between permanent income and homicides, estimating an income-crime elasticity. We assume that this elasticity varies across geographical areas. We estimate different specifications of Spatial Panel Models using information of urban areas in Medellin (Colombia), areas known as communes. Spatial Models consider the importance of location and the type of neighbors of each commune. We simulate an intervention over permanent income in order to estimate the income elasticity for each commune and the average elasticity of income-crime on the city. We provide evidence about spatial dependence between the homicides per commune and their neighbors, and about a relationship between homicides and neighbor’s income. In our case of study, the average estimated impact of 1% increase in permanent income in a specific commune produces a decrease in the homicide rate on average in 0.39%. Finally, permanent income plays a crime deterrent role, but also this effect of income on crime varies across the city, showing that some areas are strategically located to this kind of intervention.

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The sediments of Bear Creek near Baltimore, Maryland demonstrate substantial toxicity to benthic organisms, and contain a complex mixture of organic and inorganic contaminants. The present study maps the spatial extent and depth profile of toxicity and contamination in Bear Creek, and explores correlations between heavy metals, organic contaminants, and toxic responses. Two novel analytical techniques – handheld XRF and an antibody-based PAH biosensor – were applied to samples from the site to quantify total metals and total PAHs in sediments. By comprehensively assessing toxicity in Bear Creek, the present study provides data to inform future risk assessments and management decisions relating for the site, while demonstrating the benefits of applying joint biological assays and chemical assessment methods to sediments with complex contaminant mixtures.

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This thesis seeks to research patterns of economic growth and development from a number of perspectives often resonated in the growth literature. By addressing themes about history, geography, institutions and culture the thesis is able to bring to bear a wide range of inter-related literatures and methodologies within a single content. Additionally, by targeting different administrative levels in its research design and approach, this thesis is also able to provide a comprehensive treatment of the economic growth dilemma from both cross-national and sub-national perspectives. The three chapters herein discuss economic development from two broad dimensions. The first of these chapters takes on the economic growth inquiry by attempting to incorporate cultural geography within a cross-country formal spatial econometric growth framework. By introducing the global cultural dynamics of languages and ethnic groups as spatial network mechanisms, this chapter is able to distinguish economic growth effects accruing from own-country productive efforts from those accruing from interconnections within a global productive network chain. From this, discussions and deductions about the implications for both developed and developing countries are made as regards potentials for gains and losses from such types and levels of productive integration. The second and third chapters take a different spin to the economic development inquiry. They both focus on economic activity in Africa, tackling the relevant issues from a geo-intersected dimension involving historic regional tribal homelands and modern national and subnational administrative territories. The second chapter specifically focuses on attempting to adopt historical channels to investigate the connection between national institutional quality and economic development in demarcated tribal homelands at the fringes of national African borders. The third chapter on the other hand focuses on looking closer at the effects of demarcations on economic activity. It particularly probes how different kinds of demarcation warranted by two different but very relevant classes of politico-economic players have affected economic activity quite distinguishably within the resulting subnational regions in Africa.

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MEGAGEO - Moving megaliths in the Neolithic is a project that intends to find the provenience of lithic materials in the construction of tombs. A multidisciplinary approach is carried out, with researchers from several of the knowledge fields involved. This work presents a spatial data warehouse specially developed for this project that comprises information from national archaeological databases, geographic and geological information and new geochemical and petrographic data obtained during the project. The use of the spatial data warehouse proved to be essential in the data analysis phase of the project. The Redondo Area is presented as a case study for the application of the spatial data warehouse to analyze the relations between geochemistry, geology and the tombs in this area.

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Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Proteção de Plantas) - FCA