Respiratory syncytial virus infections during an epidemic period in Salvador, Brazil: viral antigenic group analysis and description of clinical and epidemiological aspects

Acute respiratory infections (ARI) caused by respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) were studied in 482 children from Salvador, BA, Brazil, over a period of 12 months. The epidemic period of RSV infections in Salvador occurred from February (summer) to August (winter), with peaks in May, June, and July. The grouping characteristics of 84 RSV present in nasopharyngeal secretions of children seen at a reference university hospital were analyzed. RSV represented 17.4% of all cases and 54.5% of the positive samples. Sixty-four RSV strains were assigned to group A and 14 to group B. Both groups circulated in the five months of the epidemic period studied. Infections by both groups of RSV were more frequent in children up to one year of age. The incidence of RSV ARI was slightly more frequent in males, although group B had more infected females.

A deterministic model to assess the impact of AIDS interventions in countries with generalized HIV epidemic. An application to Botswana

General introductionThe Human Immunodeficiency/Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS) epidemic, despite recent encouraging announcements by the World Health Organization (WHO) is still today one of the world's major health care challenges.The present work lies in the field of health care management, in particular, we aim to evaluate the behavioural and non-behavioural interventions against HIV/AIDS in developing countries through a deterministic simulation model, both in human and economic terms. We will focus on assessing the effectiveness of the antiretroviral therapies (ART) in heterosexual populations living in lesser developed countries where the epidemic has generalized (formerly defined by the WHO as type II countries). The model is calibrated using Botswana as a case study, however our model can be adapted to other countries with similar transmission dynamics.The first part of this thesis consists of reviewing the main mathematical concepts describing the transmission of infectious agents in general but with a focus on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission. We also review deterministic models assessing HIV interventions with a focus on models aimed at African countries. This review helps us to recognize the need for a generic model and allows us to define a typical structure of such a generic deterministic model.The second part describes the main feed-back loops underlying the dynamics of HIV transmission. These loops represent the foundation of our model. This part also provides a detailed description of the model, including the various infected and non-infected population groups, the type of sexual relationships, the infection matrices, important factors impacting HIV transmission such as condom use, other sexually transmitted diseases (STD) and male circumcision. We also included in the model a dynamic life expectancy calculator which, to our knowledge, is a unique feature allowing more realistic cost-efficiency calculations. Various intervention scenarios are evaluated using the model, each of them including ART in combination with other interventions, namely: circumcision, campaigns aimed at behavioral change (Abstain, Be faithful or use Condoms also named ABC campaigns), and treatment of other STD. A cost efficiency analysis (CEA) is performed for each scenario. The CEA consists of measuring the cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted. This part also describes the model calibration and validation, including a sensitivity analysis.The third part reports the results and discusses the model limitations. In particular, we argue that the combination of ART and ABC campaigns and ART and treatment of other STDs are the most cost-efficient interventions through 2020. The main model limitations include modeling the complexity of sexual relationships, omission of international migration and ignoring variability in infectiousness according to the AIDS stage.The fourth part reviews the major contributions of the thesis and discusses model generalizability and flexibility. Finally, we conclude that by selecting the adequate interventions mix, policy makers can significantly reduce the adult prevalence in Botswana in the coming twenty years providing the country and its donors can bear the cost involved.Part I: Context and literature reviewIn this section, after a brief introduction to the general literature we focus in section two on the key mathematical concepts describing the transmission of infectious agents in general with a focus on HIV transmission. Section three provides a description of HIV policy models, with a focus on deterministic models. This leads us in section four to envision the need for a generic deterministic HIV policy model and briefly describe the structure of such a generic model applicable to countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemic, also defined as pattern II countries by the WHO.

Failure to demonstrate experimental vertical transmission of the epidemic strain of Chikungunya virus in Aedes albopictus from La Réunion Island, Indian Ocean

Aedes albopictus was responsible for transmission in the first outbreak of chikungunya (CHIK) on La Réunion Island, Indian Ocean, in 2005-2006. The magnitude of the outbreak on this island, which had been free of arboviral diseases for over 30 years, as well as the efficiency of Ae. albopictus as the main vector, raises questions about the maintenance of the CHIK virus (CHIKV) through vertical transmission mechanisms. Few specimens collected from the field as larvae were found to be infected. In this study, Ae. albopictus originating from La Réunion were orally infected with a blood-meal containing 10(8) pfu/mL of the CHIKV epidemic strain (CHIKV 06.21). Eggs from the first and second gonotrophic cycles were collected and raised to the adult stage. The infectious status of the progeny was checked (i) by immunofluorescence on head squashes of individual mosquitoes to detect the presence of viral particles or (ii) by quantitative RT-PCR on mosquito pools to detect viral RNA. We analysed a total of 1,675 specimens from the first gonotrophic cycle and 1,709 from the second gonotrophic cycle without detecting any viral particles or viral RNA. These laboratory results are compared to field records.

Molecular characterisation of Sporothrix schenckii isolates from humans and cats involved in the sporotrichosis epidemic in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

An epidemic of sporotrichosis, a subcutaneous mycosis caused by the fungus Sporothrix schenckii, is ongoing in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, in which cases of human infection are related to exposure to cats. In an attempt to demonstrate the zoonotic character of this epidemic using molecular methodology, we characterised by DNA-based typing methods 19 human and 25 animal S. schenckii isolates from the epidemic, as well as two control strains. To analyse the isolates, the random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) technique was performed using three different primers, together with DNA fingerprinting using the minisatellite derived from the wild-type phage M13 core-sequence. The analyses generated amplicons with considerable polymorphism. Although isolates exhibited high levels of genetic relatedness, they could be clustered into 5-10 genotypes. The RAPD profiles of epidemic S. schenckii isolates could be distinguished from that of the United States isolate, displaying 20% similarity to each primer and 60% when amplified with the M13 primer. DNA fingerprinting of S. schenckii isolated from the nails (42.8%) and the oral cavities (66%) of cats were identical to related human samples, suggesting that there is a common infection source for animals and humans in this epidemic. It is clear that cats act as a vehicle for dissemination of S. schenckii.

Container productivity, daily survival rates and dispersal of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes in a high income dengue epidemic neighbourhood of Rio de Janeiro: presumed influence of differential urban structure on mosquito biology

Different urban structures might affect the life history parameters of Aedes aegypti and, consequently, dengue transmission. Container productivity, probability of daily survival (PDS) and dispersal rates were estimated for mosquito populations in a high income neighbourhood of Rio de Janeiro. Results were contrasted with those previously found in a suburban district, as well as those recorded in a slum. After inspecting 1,041 premises, domestic drains and discarded plastic pots were identified as the most productive containers, collectively holding up to 80% of the total pupae. In addition, three cohorts of dust-marked Ae. aegypti females were released and recaptured daily using BGS-Traps, sticky ovitraps and backpack aspirators in 50 randomly selected houses; recapture rate ranged from 5-12.2% within cohorts. PDS was determined by two models and ranged from 0.607-0.704 (exponential model) and 0.659-0.721 (non-linear model), respectively. Mean distance travelled varied from 57-122 m, with a maximum dispersal of 263 m. Overall, lower infestation indexes and adult female survival were observed in the high income neighbourhood, suggesting a lower dengue transmission risk in comparison to the suburban area and the slum. Since results show that urban structure can influence mosquito biology, specific control strategies might be used in order to achieve cost-effective Ae. aegypti control.

The endemisation of schistosomiasis in Porto de Galinhas, Pernambuco, Brazil, 10 years after the first epidemic outbreak

In 2000, after heavy rains and floods in Porto de Galinhas, Pernambuco, Brazil, an outbreak of schistosomiasis was recorded, of which 62.2% (412 cases) were of the acute clinical form. Between 2001-2009, occasional findings of Biomphalaria snails parasitised by Schistosoma mansoni indicated that disease transmission was still occurring. This motivated a new epidemiological survey between August-December 2010 to provide an update of the occurrence of this health hazard and to investigate the process of disease endemisation at this locality. This survey gathered parasitological, clinical and malacological data. The results of this survey, compared with data from the year 2000 survey, showed the following: (i) over these 10 years, there were declines in the total percentage of cases and the percentage of acute forms, (ii) the acute clinical form now represents 23.3% in contrast with the 62.2% detected in 2000 and (iii) the current prevalence of schistosomiasis is 15.7%, while in 2000 32.1% of the individuals were diagnosed as parasitised. Today, the chronic clinical form represents 76.7% of the total number of cases diagnosed, thus showing that over the 10-year period the occurrences of clinical forms became inverted. These findings, together with visual observation of insalubrious environmental conditions, indicate that schistosomiasis has become endemic in Porto de Galinhas.

Rapid tests for the detection of the Mycobacterium abscessus subsp. bolletii strain responsible for an epidemic of surgical-site infections in Brazil

A single strain of Mycobacterium abscessus subsp. bolletii, characterised by a particular rpoB sequevar and two highly related pulsed field gel electrophoresis patterns has been responsible for a nationwide outbreak of surgical infections in Brazil since 2004. In this study, we developed molecular tests based on polymerase chain reaction restriction-enzyme analysis (PRA) and sequencing for the rapid identification of this strain. Sequences of 15 DNA regions conserved in mycobacteria were retrieved from GenBank or sequenced and analysed in silico. Single nucleotide polymorphisms specific to the epidemic strain and located in enzyme recognition sites were detected in rpoB, the 3' region of the 16S rDNA and gyrB. The three tests that were developed, i.e., PRA-rpoB, PRA-16S and gyrB sequence analysis, showed 100%, 100% and 92.31% sensitivity and 93.06%, 90.28% and 100% specificity, respectively, for the discrimination of the surgical strain from other M. abscessus subsp. bolletii isolates, including 116 isolates from 95 patients, one environmental isolate and two type strains. The results of the three tests were stable, as shown by results obtained for different isolates from the same patient. In conclusion, due to the clinical and epidemiological importance of this strain, these tests could be implemented in reference laboratories for the rapid preliminary diagnosis and epidemiological surveillance of this epidemic strain.

Preventive medicine for epidemic outbreaks and risky behavior through mobile devices and ubiquitous computing

In this work, we have developed the first free software for mobile devices with the Android operating system that can preventively mitigate the number of contagions of sexually transmitted infections (STI), associated with risk behavior. This software runs in two modes. The normal mode allows the user to see the alerts and nearby health centers. The second mode enables the service to work in the background. This software reports the health risks, as well as the location of different test centers.

Detection of the B"-GWGR variant in the southernmost region of Brazil: unveiling the complexity of the human immunodeficiency virus-1 subtype B epidemic

Typical human immunodeficiency virus-1 subtype B (HIV-1B) sequences present a GPGR signature at the tip of the variable region 3 (V3) loop; however, unusual motifs harbouring a GWGR signature have also been isolated. Although epidemiological studies have detected this variant in approximately 17-50% of the total infections in Brazil, the prevalence of B"-GWGR in the southernmost region of Brazil is not yet clear. This study aimed to investigate the C2-V3 molecular diversity of the HIV-1B epidemic in southernmost Brazil. HIV-1 seropositive patients were ana-lysed at two distinct time points in the state of Rio Grande do Sul (RS98 and RS08) and at one time point in the state of Santa Catarina (SC08). Phylogenetic analysis classified 46 individuals in the RS98 group as HIV-1B and their molecular signatures were as follows: 26% B"-GWGR, 54% B-GPGR and 20% other motifs. In the RS08 group, HIV-1B was present in 32 samples: 22% B"-GWGR, 59% B-GPGR and 19% other motifs. In the SC08 group, 32 HIV-1B samples were found: 28% B"-GWGR, 59% B-GPGR and 13% other motifs. No association could be established between the HIV-1B V3 signatures and exposure categories in the HIV-1B epidemic in RS. However, B-GPGR seemed to be related to heterosexual individuals in the SC08 group. Our results suggest that the established B"-GWGR epidemics in both cities have similar patterns, which is likely due to their geographical proximity and cultural relationship.

Evaluation of the WHO classification of dengue disease severity during an epidemic in 2011 in the state of Ceará, Brazil

In 2009, the World Health Organization (WHO) issued a new guideline that stratifies dengue-affected patients into severe (SD) and non-severe dengue (NSD) (with or without warning signs). To evaluate the new recommendations, we completed a retrospective cross-sectional study of the dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF) cases reported during an outbreak in 2011 in northeastern Brazil. We investigated 84 suspected DHF patients, including 45 (53.6%) males and 39 (46.4%) females. The ages of the patients ranged from five-83 years and the median age was 29. According to the DHF/dengue shock syndrome classification, 53 (63.1%) patients were classified as having dengue fever and 31 (36.9%) as having DHF. According to the 2009 WHO classification, 32 (38.1%) patients were grouped as having NSD [4 (4.8%) without warning signs and 28 (33.3%) with warning signs] and 52 (61.9%) as having SD. A better performance of the revised classification in the detection of severe clinical manifestations allows for an improved detection of patients with SD and may reduce deaths. The revised classification will not only facilitate effective screening and patient management, but will also enable the collection of standardised surveillance data for future epidemiological and clinical studies.

Virulence variation among epidemic and non-epidemic strains of Saint Louis encephalitis virus circulating in Argentina

Saint Louis encephalitis virus caused an outbreak of febrile illness and encephalitis cases in Córdoba, Argentina, in 2005. During this outbreak, the strain CbaAr-4005 was isolated from Culex quinquefasciatus mosquitoes. We hypothesised that this epidemic variant would be more virulent in a mouse model than two other non-epidemic strains (78V-6507 and CorAn-9275) isolated under different epidemiological conditions. To test this hypothesis, we performed a biological characterisation in a murine model, including mortality, morbidity and infection percentages and lethal infection indices using the three strains. Mice were separated into age groups (7, 10 and 21-day-old mice) and analysed after infection. The strain CbaAr-4005 was the most infective and lethal of the three variants, whereas the other two strains exhibited a decreasing mortality percentage with increasing animal age. The strain CbaAr-4005 produced the highest morbidity percentages and no significant differences among age groups were observed. The epidemic strain caused signs of illness in all inoculated animals and showed narrower ranges from the onset of symptoms than the other strains. CbaAr-4005 was the most virulent for Swiss albino mice. Our results highlight the importance of performing biological characterisations of arbovirus strains likely to be responsible for emerging or reemerging human diseases.

The oral cancer epidemic in central and eastern Europe.

To monitor recent trends in oral and pharyngeal cancer mortality in 38 European countries, we analyzed data provided by the World Health Organization over the period 1975-2004. Joinpoint analysis was used to identify significant changes in trends. In the European Union (EU), male mortality rates rose by 2.1% per year between 1975 and 1984, by 1.0% between 1984 and 1993, and declined by 1.3% between 1993 and 2004, to reach an overall age-standardized rate of 6.1/100,000 in 2000-2004. Mortality rates were much lower in women, and the rate in the EU rose by 0.9% per year up to 2000, and levelled off to 1.1/100,000 in 2000-2004. In France and Italy - which had the highest rates in the past - male rates have steadily declined during the last two decades (annual percent change, APC=-4.8% in 1998-2004 in France, and -2.6% in 1986-2003 in Italy). Persisting rises were, however, observed in several central and eastern European countries, with exceedingly high rates in Hungary (21.1/100,000; APC=6.9% in 1975-1993 and 1.4% in 1993-2004) and Slovakia (16.9/100,000; APC=0.14% in 1992-2004). In middle aged (35 to 64) men, oral and pharyngeal cancer mortality rates in Hungary (55.2/100,000) and Slovakia (40.8/100,000) were comparable to lung cancer rates in several major European countries. The highest rates for women were in Hungary (3.3/100,000; APC=4.7% in 1975-2004) and Denmark (1.6/100,000; APC=1.3% in 1975-2001). Oral and pharyngeal cancer mortality essentially reflects the different patterns in tobacco smoking and alcohol drinking, including drinking patterns and type of alcohol in central Europe. (c) 2009 UICC.

The spatiotemporal trajectory of a dengue epidemic in a medium-sized city

Understanding the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases is important to allow for improvements of control measures. To investigate the spatiotemporal pattern of an epidemic dengue occurred at a medium-sized city in the Northeast Region of Brazil in 2009, we conducted an ecological study of the notified dengue cases georeferenced according to epidemiological week (EW) and home address. Kernel density estimation and space-time interaction were analysed using the Knox method. The evolution of the epidemic was analysed using an animated projection technique. The dengue incidence was 6.918.7/100,000 inhabitants; the peak of the epidemic occurred from 8 February-1 March, EWs 6-9 (828.7/100,000 inhabitants). There were cases throughout the city and was identified space-time interaction. Three epicenters were responsible for spreading the disease in an expansion and relocation diffusion pattern. If the health services could detect in real time the epicenters and apply nimbly control measures, may possibly reduce the magnitude of dengue epidemics.