On landslide risk, resilience and vulnerability of mountain communities in Central-Eastern Nepal

Executive SummaryIn Nepal, landslides are one of the major natural hazards after epidemics, killing over 100 persons per year. However, this figure is an underreported reflection of the actual impact that landslides have on livelihoods and food security in rural Nepal. With predictions of more intense rainfall patterns, landslide occurrence in the Himalayas is likely to increase and continue to be one of the major impediments to development. Due to the remoteness of many localities and lack of resources, responsibilities for disaster preparedness and response in mountain areas usually lie with the communities themselves. Everyday life is full of risk in mountains of Nepal. This is why mountain populations, as well as other populations living in harsh conditions have developed a number of coping strategies for dealing with adverse situations. Perhaps due to the dispersed and remote nature of landslides in Nepal, there have been few studies on vulnerability, coping- and mitigation strategies of landslide affected populations. There are also few recommendations available to guide authorities and populations how to reduce losses due to landslides in Nepal, and even less so, how to operationalize resilience and vulnerability.Many policy makers, international donors, NGOs and national authorities are currently asking what investments are needed to increase the so-called 'resilience' of mountain populations to deal with climate risks. However, mountain populations are already quite resilient to seasonal fluctuations, temperature variations, rainfall patterns and market prices. In spite of their resilience, they continue to live in places at risk due to high vulnerability caused by structural inequalities: access to land, resources, markets, education. This interdisciplinary thesis examines the concept of resilience by questioning its usefulness and validity as the current goal of international development and disaster risk reduction policies, its conceptual limitations and its possible scope of action. The goal of this study is two-fold: to better define and distinguish factors and relationships between resilience, vulnerability, capacities and risk; and to test and improve a participatory methodology for evaluating landslide risk that can serve as a guidance tool for improving community-based disaster risk reduction. The objective is to develop a simple methodology that can be used by NGOs, local authorities and communities to reduce losses from landslides.Through its six case studies in Central-Eastern Nepal, this study explores the relation between resilience, vulnerability and landslide risk based on interdisciplinary methods, including geological assessments of landslides, semi-structured interviews, focus groups and participatory risk mapping. For comparison, the study sites were chosen in Tehrathum, Sunsari and Dolakha Districts of Central/Eastern Nepal, to reflect a variety of landslide types, from chronic to acute, and a variety of communities, from very marginalized to very high status. The study uses the Sustainable Livelihoods Approach as its conceptual basis, which is based on the notion that access and rights to resources (natural, human/institutional, economic, environmental, physical) are the basis for coping with adversity, such as landslides. The study is also intended as a contribution to the growing literature and practices on Community Based Disaster Risk Reduction specifically adapted to landslide- prone areas.In addition to the six case studies, results include an indicator based methodology for assessing and measuring vulnerability and resilience, a composite risk assessment methodology, a typology of coping strategies and risk perceptions and a thorough analysis of the relation between risk, vulnerability and resilience. The methodology forassessing vulnerability, resilience and risk is relatively cost-effective and replicable in a low-data environment. Perhaps the major finding is that resilience is a process that defines a community's (or system's) capacity to rebound following adversity but it does not necessarily reduce vulnerability or risk, which requires addressing more structural issues related to poverty. Therefore, conclusions include a critical view of resilience as a main goal of international development and disaster risk reduction policies. It is a useful concept in the context of recovery after a disaster but it needs to be addressed in parallel with vulnerability and risk.This research was funded by an interdisciplinary grant (#26083591) from the Swiss National Science Foundation for the period 2009-2011 and a seed grant from the Faculty of Geosciences and Environment at the University of Lausanne in 2008.Résumé en françaisAu Népal, les glissements de terrain sont un des aléas les plus dévastateurs après les épidémies, causant 100 morts par an. Pourtant, ce chiffre est une sous-estimation de l'impact réel de l'effet des glissements sur les moyens de subsistance et la sécurité alimentaire au Népal. Avec des prévisions de pluies plus intenses, l'occurrence des glissements dans les Himalayas augmente et présente un obstacle au développement. Du fait de l'éloignement et du manque de ressources dans les montagnes au Népal, la responsabilité de la préparation et la réponse aux catastrophes se trouve chez les communautés elles-mêmes. Le risque fait partie de la vie quotidienne dans les montagnes du Népal. C'est pourquoi les populations montagnardes, comme d'autres populations vivant dans des milieux contraignants, ont développé des stratégies pour faire face aux situations défavorables. Peu d'études existent sur la vulnérabilité, ceci étant probablement dû à l'éloignement et pourtant, les stratégies d'adaptation et de mitigation des populations touchées par des glissements au Népal existent.Beaucoup de décideurs politiques, bailleurs de fonds, ONG et autorités nationales se demandent quels investissements sont nécessaires afin d'augmenter la 'resilience' des populations de montagne pour faire face aux changements climatiques. Pourtant, ces populations sont déjà résilientes aux fluctuations des saisons, des variations de température, des pluies et des prix des marchés. En dépit de leur résilience, ils continuent de vivre dans des endroits à fort risque à cause des vulnérabilités créées par les inégalités structurelles : l'accès à la terre, aux ressources, aux marchés et à l'éducation. Cette thèse interdisciplinaire examine le concept de la résilience en mettant en cause son utilité et sa validité en tant que but actuel des politiques internationales de développement et de réduction des risques, ainsi que ses limitations conceptuelles et ses possibles champs d'action. Le but de cette étude est double : mieux définir et distinguer les facteurs et relations entre la résilience, la vulnérabilité, les capacités et le risque ; Et tester et améliorer une méthode participative pour évaluer le risque des glissements qui peut servir en tant qu'outil indicatif pour améliorer la réduction des risques des communautés. Le but est de développer une méthodologie simple qui peut être utilisée par des ONG, autorités locales et communautés pour réduire les pertes dues aux glissements.A travers les études de cas au centre-est du Népal, cette étude explore le rapport entre la résilience, la vulnérabilité et les glissements basée sur des méthodes interdisciplinaires ; Y sont inclus des évaluations géologiques des glissements, des entretiens semi-dirigés, des discussions de groupes et des cartes de risques participatives. Pour la comparaison, les zones d'études ont été sélectionnées dans les districts de Tehrathum, Sunsari et Dolakha dans le centre-est du Népal, afin de refléter différents types de glissements, de chroniques à urgents, ainsi que différentes communautés, variant de très marginalisées à très haut statut. Pour son cadre conceptuel, cette étude s'appuie sur l'approche de moyens de subsistance durable, qui est basée sur les notions d'accès et de droit aux ressources (naturelles, humaines/institutionnelles, économiques, environnementales, physiques) et qui sont le minimum pour faire face à des situations difficiles, comme des glissements. Cette étude se veut aussi une contribution à la littérature et aux pratiques en croissantes sur la réduction des risques communautaires, spécifiquement adaptées aux zones affectées par des glissements.En plus des six études de cas, les résultats incluent une méthodologie basée sur des indicateurs pour évaluer et mesurer la vulnérabilité et la résilience, une méthodologie sur le risque composé, une typologie de stratégies d'adaptation et perceptions des risques ainsi qu'une analyse fondamentale de la relation entre risque, vulnérabilité et résilience. Les méthodologies pour l'évaluation de la vulnérabilité, de la résilience et du risque sont relativement peu coûteuses et reproductibles dans des endroits avec peu de données disponibles. Le résultat probablement le plus pertinent est que la résilience est un processus qui définit la capacité d'une communauté (ou d'un système) à rebondir suite à une situation défavorable, mais qui ne réduit pas forcement la vulnérabilité ou le risque, et qui requiert une approche plus fondamentale s'adressant aux questions de pauvreté. Les conclusions incluent une vue critique de la résilience comme but principal des politiques internationales de développement et de réduction des risques. C'est un concept utile dans le contexte de la récupération après une catastrophe mais il doit être pris en compte au même titre que la vulnérabilité et le risque.Cette recherche a été financée par un fonds interdisciplinaire (#26083591) du Fonds National Suisse pour la période 2009-2011 et un fonds de préparation de recherches par la Faculté des Géosciences et Environnement à l'Université de Lausanne en 2008.

Assessing alpine plant vulnerability to climate change: A modeling perspective

The potential ecological impact of ongoing climate change has been much discussed. High mountain ecosystems were identified early on as potentially very sensitive areas. Scenarios of upward species movement and vegetation shift are commonly discussed in the literature. Mountains being characteristically conic in shape, impact scenarios usually assume that a smaller surface area will be available as species move up. However, as the frequency distribution of additional physiographic factors (e.g., slope angle) changes with increasing elevation (e.g., with few gentle slopes available at higher elevation), species migrating upslope may encounter increasingly unsuitable conditions. As a result, many species could suffer severe reduction of their habitat surface, which could in turn affect patterns of biodiversity. In this paper, results from static plant distribution modeling are used to derive climate change impact scenarios in a high mountain environment. Models are adjusted with presence/absence of species. Environmental predictors used are: annual mean air temperature, slope, indices of topographic position, geology, rock cover, modeled permafrost and several indices of solar radiation and snow cover duration. Potential Habitat Distribution maps were drawn for 62 higher plant species, from which three separate climate change impact scenarios were derived. These scenarios show a great range of response, depending on the species and the degree of warming. Alpine species would be at greatest risk of local extinction, whereas species with a large elevation range would run the lowest risk. Limitations of the models and scenarios are further discussed.

Do geographic distribution, niche property and life form explain plants' vulnerability to global change?

We modelled the future distribution in 2050 of 975 endemic plant species in southern Africa distributed among seven life forms, including new methodological insights improving the accuracy and ecological realism of predictions of global changes studies by: (i) using only endemic species as a way to capture the full realized niche of species, (ii) considering the direct impact of human pressure on landscape and biodiversity jointly with climate, and (iii) taking species' migration into account. Our analysis shows important promises for predicting the impacts of climate change in conjunction with land transformation. We have shown that the endemic flora of Southern Africa on average decreases with 41% in species richness among habitats and with 39% on species distribution range for the most optimistic scenario. We also compared the patterns of species' sensitivity with global change across life forms, using ecological and geographic characteristics of species. We demonstrate here that species and life form vulnerability to global changes can be partly explained according to species' (i) geographical distribution along climatic and biogeographic gradients, like climate anomalies, (ii) niche breadth or (iii) proximity to barrier preventing migration. Our results confirm that the sensitivity of a given species to global environmental changes depends upon its geographical distribution and ecological proprieties, and makes it possible to estimate a priori its potential sensitivity to these changes.

Vulnerability of stream biota to climate change in mediterranean climate regions: a synthesis of ecological responses and conservation challenges

Freshwater species worldwide are experiencing dramatic declines partly attributable to ongoing climate change. It is expected that the future effects of climate change could be particularly severe in mediterranean climate (med-) regions, which host many endemic species already under great stress from the high level of human development. In this article, we review the climate and climate-induced changes in streams of med-regions and the responses of stream biota, focusing on both observed and anticipated ecological responses. We also discuss current knowledge gaps and conservation challenges. Expected climate alterations have already been observed in the last decades, and include: increased annual average air temperatures; decreased annual average precipitation; hydrologic alterations; and an increase in frequency, intensity and duration of extreme events, such as floods, droughts and fires. Recent observations, which are concordant with forecasts built, show stream biota of med-regions when facing climate changes tend to be displaced towards higher elevations and upper latitudes, communities tend to change their composition and homogenize, while some life-history traits seem to provide biota with resilience and resistance to adapt to the new conditions (as being short-lived, small, and resistant to low streamflow and desiccation). Nevertheless, such responses may be insufficient to cope with current and future environmental changes. Accurate forecasts of biotic changes and possible adaptations are difficult to obtain in med-regions mainly because of the difficulty of distinguishing disturbances due to natural variability from the effects of climate change, particularly regarding hydrology. Long-term studies are needed to disentangle such variability and improve knowledge regarding the ecological responses and the detection of early warning signals to climate change. Investments should focus on taxa beyond fish and macroinvertebrates, and in covering the less studied regions of Chile and South Africa. Scientists, policy makers and water managers must be involved in the climate change dialogue because the freshwater conservation concerns are huge.

Environmental impact of genetically modified cotton in South Africa

This paper presents the results of a large-scale study designed to monitor the impact arising from the introduction of insect-resistant Bt cotton in the Makhathini Flats, Republic of South Africa. Bt cotton provides a degree of resistance to cotton bollworm complex (Lepidoptera). Data were collected on the use of insecticides (type and quantity) as well as the farm-level economics of production from over 2200 farmers in three growing seasons (1998/1999, 1999/2000 and 2000/2001). and the results are discussed within the context of environmental impact brought about by insecticide. Over the three seasons of the study it was clear that Bt cotton provided benefits in terms of higher yield and gross margin relative to farmers growing conventional (non-Bt) cotton, and the benefits were particularly apparent for the smallest producers. Bt growers also used significantly less insecticide than growers of non-Bt cotton. Once quantities of insecticide applied to Bt and non-Bt cotton were converted into a Biocide Index and an Environmental Impact Quotient (EIQ) in order to allow for differences in terms of toxicity and persistence in the environment, it was apparent that the growing of Bt had a less negative impact on the environment. While this points to beneficial impacts on agricultural sustainability there are wider concerns regarding the vulnerability of resource-poor farmers in an area with limited (as yet) marketing options for their product and options for livelihood diversification both within and outside agriculture. Cotton producers in Makhathini are vulnerable as they rely on just One company for inputs (including, credit) and for their market. While Bt cotton provides benefits it does not in itself address some of the structural limitations that farmers face. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Environmental impact of genetically modified cotton in South Africa

This paper presents the results of a large-scale study designed to monitor the impact arising from the introduction of insect-resistant Bt cotton in the Makhathini Flats, Republic of South Africa. Bt cotton provides a degree of resistance to cotton bollworm complex (Lepidoptera). Data were collected on the use of insecticides (type and quantity) as well as the farm-level economics of production from over 2200 farmers in three growing seasons (1998/1999, 1999/2000 and 2000/2001). and the results are discussed within the context of environmental impact brought about by insecticide. Over the three seasons of the study it was clear that Bt cotton provided benefits in terms of higher yield and gross margin relative to farmers growing conventional (non-Bt) cotton, and the benefits were particularly apparent for the smallest producers. Bt growers also used significantly less insecticide than growers of non-Bt cotton. Once quantities of insecticide applied to Bt and non-Bt cotton were converted into a Biocide Index and an Environmental Impact Quotient (EIQ) in order to allow for differences in terms of toxicity and persistence in the environment, it was apparent that the growing of Bt had a less negative impact on the environment. While this points to beneficial impacts on agricultural sustainability there are wider concerns regarding the vulnerability of resource-poor farmers in an area with limited (as yet) marketing options for their product and options for livelihood diversification both within and outside agriculture. Cotton producers in Makhathini are vulnerable as they rely on just One company for inputs (including, credit) and for their market. While Bt cotton provides benefits it does not in itself address some of the structural limitations that farmers face. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sociodemographic vulnerability in the Caribbean: an examination of the social and demographic impediments to equitable development with participatory citizenship in the Caribbean at the dawn of the twenty-first century

Includes bibliography

Assessment of the socioeconomic and environmental impact of hurricane Ivan on Jamaica

Includes bibliography

Regional implementation meeting on access rights and sustainable development in the Caribbean. Workshop on enhancing access to information on climate change, natural disasters and coastal vulnerability: leaving no one behind

This document summarizes the regional implementation meeting on access rights and sustainable development in the Caribbean and the workshop on enhancing access to information on climate change, natural disasters and coastal vulnerability: leaving no one behind held in Rodney’s Bay, Saint Lucia, from 24 to 26 August 2015.

Promoting ethical and environmental awareness in vulnerable communities: a research action plan

Urban populations that live in the outskirts of major Latin American cities usually face conditions of vulnerability attached to complex environmental issues, such as the lack of sewerage, floods, pollution and soil and water contamination. This article reports an intervention research programme in Sao Paulo, Brazil that combines a moral education approach with sustainability awareness in vulnerable communities. The main conceptual foundations of the project, designed to empower the community and promote ethical and environmental awareness are: strengthening the ties between the school and the surrounding community in order to construct 'moral atmosphere'; adoption of Problem- and Project-based Learning and the Design Thinking approach to reach the proposed goals.

Prevalence and vulnerability of homeless people to HIV infection in Sao Paulo, Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To assess the prevalence and vulnerability of homeless people to HIV infection. METHODS: Cross-sectional study conducted with a non-probabilistic sample of 1,405 homeless users of shelters in the city of Sao Paulo, southeastern Brazil, from 2006 to 2007. They were all tested for HIV and a structured questionnaire was applied. Their vulnerability to HIV was determined by the frequency of condom use: those who reported using condoms only occasionally or never were considered the most vulnerable. Multinomial and logistic regression models were used to estimate effect measures and 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: There was a predominance of males (85.6%), with a mean age of 40.9 years, 72.0% had complete elementary schooling, and 71.5% were non-white. Of all respondents, 15.7% reported being homosexual or bisexual and 62,0% reported having casual sex. The mean number of sexual partners in the last 12 months was 5.4. More than half (55.7%) of the respondents reported lifetime drug use, while 25.7% reported frequent use. Sexually-transmitted disease was reported by 39.6% of the homeless and 38.3% reported always using condoms. The prevalence of HIV infection was 4.9% (17.4% also tested positive for syphilis) and about half of the respondents (55.4%) had access to prevention programs. Higher HIV prevalence was associated with younger age (18-29 years, OR = 4.0 [95% CI 1.54; 10.46]); past history of sexually-transmitted disease (OR = 3.3 [95% CI 1.87; 5.73]); homosexual sex (OR = 3.0 [95% CI 1.28; 6.92]); and syphilis (OR = 2.4 [95% CI 1.13; 4.93]). Increased vulnerability to HIV infection was associated with being female; young; homosexual sex; having few partners or a steady partner; drug and alcohol use; not having access to prevention programs and social support. CONCLUSIONS: The HIV epidemic has a major impact on homeless people reflecting a cycle of exclusion, social vulnerability, and limited access to prevention.

Spatial analysis of the social vulnerability of adolescent pregnancy

The purpose of this study was to present a spatial analysis of the social vulnerability of teenage pregnancy by geoprocessing data on births and deaths present on the Brazilian Ministry of Health databases in order to support intersectoral management actions and strategies based on spatial analysis in neighborhood areas. The thematic maps of the educational, occupational, birth and marital status of mothers, from all births and deaths in the city, presented a spatial correlation with teenage pregnancy. These maps were superimposed to produce social vulnerability map of adolescent pregnancy and women in general. This process presents itself as a powerful tool for the study of social vulnerability.

Rationale and knowledge for the universal implementation of sanitation in areas of social vulnerability

The adoption of principles of equality and universality stipulated in legislation for the sanitation sector requires discussions on innovation. The existing model was able to meet sanitary demands, but was unable to attend all areas causing disparities in vulnerable areas. The universal implementation of sanitation requires identification of the know-how that promotes it and analysis of the model adopted today to establish a new method. Analysis of how different viewpoints on the restructuring process is necessary for the definition of public policy, especially in health, and understanding its complexities and importance in confirming social practices and organizational designs. These are discussed to contribute to universal implementation of sanitation in urban areas by means of a review of the literature and practices in the industry. By way of conclusion, it is considered that accepting a particular concept or idea in sanitation means choosing some effective interventions in the network and on the lives of individual users, and implies a redefinition of the space in which it exercises control and management of sewerage networks, such that connected users are perceived as groups with different interests.

Spatio-temporal patterns of tuberculosis incidence in Ribeirao Preto, State of Sao Paulo, southeast Brazil, and their relationship with social vulnerability: a Bayesian analysis

Introduction: The purpose of this ecological study was to evaluate the urban spatial and temporal distribution of tuberculosis (TB) in Ribeirao Preto, State of Sao Paulo, southeast Brazil, between 2006 and 2009 and to evaluate its relationship with factors of social vulnerability such as income and education level. Methods: We evaluated data from TBWeb, an electronic notification system for TB cases. Measures of social vulnerability were obtained from the SEADE Foundation, and information about the number of inhabitants, education and income of the households were obtained from Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Statistical analyses were conducted by a Bayesian regression model assuming a Poisson distribution for the observed new cases of TB in each area. A conditional autoregressive structure was used for the spatial covariance structure. Results: The Bayesian model confirmed the spatial heterogeneity of TB distribution in Ribeirao Preto, identifying areas with elevated risk and the effects of social vulnerability on the disease. We demonstrated that the rate of TB was correlated with the measures of income, education and social vulnerability. However, we observed areas with low vulnerability and high education and income, but with high estimated TB rates. Conclusions: The study identified areas with different risks for TB, given that the public health system deals with the characteristics of each region individually and prioritizes those that present a higher propensity to risk of TB. Complex relationships may exist between TB incidence and a wide range of environmental and intrinsic factors, which need to be studied in future research.