841 resultados para Employment forecasting
Resumo:
This paper reports on an empirically based study of the Queensland (Australia) health and fitness industry over 15 years (1993 -2008). This study traces the development of the new occupation of fitness instructor in a service industry which has evolved si nce the 1980s and is embedded in values of consumption and individualism. It is the new world of work. The data from the 1993 study was historically significant, capturing the conditions o f employment in an unregulated setting prior to the introduction of the first industrial a ward in that industry in 1994. Fitness workers bargained directly with employers over all a spects of the employment relationship without the constraints of industrial regulation or the presence of trade unions. The substantive outcomes of the employment relationship were a direct reflection of m anagerial prerogative and worker orientation and preference, and did not reflect the rewards and outcomes traditionally found in Australian workplaces. While the focus of the 1993 research was on exploring the employment relationship in a deregulated environment, an unusual phenomenon was identified: fitness workers happily trading-off what would be considere d standard working conditions for the opportunity to work (‘take the stage’). Since then, several streams of literature have evolved providing a new context for understanding this phenomenon in the fitness industry, including: the sociology of the body (Shilling 1993; Turner 1996); emotional (Hochschild 1984) and aesthetic labour (Warhurst et al 2000); the so cial relations of production and space (Lefebvre 1991; Moss 1995); body history (Helps 2007); the sociology of consumption (Saunders 1988; Baudrillard 1998; Ritzer 2004); and work identity (Du Gay 1996; Strangleman 2004). The 2008 survey instrument replicated the 1993 study but was additionally informed b y the new literature. Surveys were sent to 310 commercial fitness centres and 4,800 fitness workers across Queensland. Worker orientation appears unchanged, and industry working conditions still seem atypical despite regulation si nce 1994. We argue that for many fitness workers the goal is to gain access to the fitness centre economy. For this they are willing to trade-off standard conditions of employment, and exchange traditional employm ent rewards for m ore intrinsic psycho-social rewards gained the through e xp o sure of their physical capital (Bourdieu 1984) o r bo dily prowess to the adoration o f their gazing clients. Building on the tradition of emotional labour and aesthetic labour, this study introduces the concept of ocularcentric labour: a state in which labour’s quest for the psychosocial rewards gained from their own body image shapes the employment relationship. With ocularcentric labour the p sycho-social rewards have greater value for the worker than ‘hard’, core conditions of employment, and are a significant factor in bargaining and outcomes, often substituting fo r direct earnings. The wo rkforce profile (young, female, casual) and their expectations (psycho-social rewards of ado ration and celebrity) challenge traditional trade unions in terms of what they can deliver, given the fitness workers’ willingness to trade-off minimum conditions, hard-won by unions.
Resumo:
Purpose: The aim of this study was to identify the transitional employment aspirations and training and development needs of older and younger workers at risk of early retirement due to limited education and/or employment in blue collar occupations. Design/ Methodology/ Approach: A computer based methodology was used to evaluate the demographic effects of gender, education level and occupation group on aspirations pertaining to transitional employment and training and development in a sample of over 1000 Local Government employees. Findings: Older blue collar, secondary school educated and younger workers were less interested in transitional employment than older workers with higher levels of education or from white collar backgrounds. The early retirement risk factors of blue collar work and secondary school education had a more limited effect on perceived training and development needs for older workers. However for younger workers, these risk factors provided the impetus to undertake training to move into less physically demanding or more challenging roles as their careers progressed. Practical Implications: Via the identification of education level and occupation types groups’ transitional employment aspirations and perceptions of preparatory training and development within younger and older cohorts, long term strategies to develop and retain staff may be formulated. Originality/ Value: Past studies of transitional employment have rarely included younger workers or older workers at risk of early retirement. Preparatory training and development for transitional employment roles has not been considered in the literature.
Resumo:
Edith Penrose’s theory of firm growth postulates that a firm’s current growth rate will be influenced by the adjustment costs of, and changes to a firm’s productive opportunity set arising from, previous growth. Although she explicitly considered the impact of previous organic growth on current organic growth, she was largely silent about the impact of previous acquisitive growth. In this paper we extend Penrose’s work to examine that the relative impact of organic and acquisitive growth on the adjustment costs and productive opportunity set of the firm. Employing a panel of commercially active enterprises in Sweden over a 10 year period our results suggest the following. First, previous organic growth acts as a constraint on current organic growth. Second, previous acquisitive growth has a positive effect on current organic growth. We conclude that organic growth and acquisitive growth constitute two distinct strategic options facing the firm, which have a differential impact on the future organic growth of the firm.
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Both creative industries and innovation are slippery fish to handle conceptually, to say nothing of their relationship. This paper faces, first, the problems of definitions and data that can bedevil clear analysis of the creative industries. It then presents a method of data generation and analysis that has been developed to address these problems while providing an evidence pathway supporting the movement in policy thinking from creative output (through industry sectors) to creative input to the broader economy (through a focus on occupations/activity). Facing the test of policy relevance, this work has assisted in moving the ongoing debates about the creative industries toward innovation thinking by developing the concept of creative occupations as input value. Creative inputs as 'enablers' arguably has parallels with the way ICTs have been shown to be broad enablers of economic growth. We conclude with two short instantiations of the policy relevance of this concept: design as a creative input; and creative human capital and education.
Resumo:
This abstract is a preliminary discussion of the importance of blending of Indigenous cultural knowledges with mainstream knowledges of mathematics for supporting Indigenous young people. This import is emphasised in the documents Preparing the Ground for Partnership (Priest, 2005), The Indigenous Education Strategic Directions 2008–2011 (Department of Education, Training and the Arts, 2007) and the National Goals for Indigenous Education (Department of Education, Employment and Work Relations, 2008). These documents highlight the contextualising of literacy and numeracy to students’ community and culture (see Priest, 2005). Here, Community describes “a culture that is oriented primarily towards the needs of the group. Martin Nakata (2007) describes contextualising to culture as about that which already exists, that is, Torres Strait Islander community, cultural context and home languages (Nakata, 2007, p. 2). Continuing, Ezeife (2002) cites Hollins (1996) in stating that Indigenous people belong to “high-context culture groups” (p. 185). That is, “high-context cultures are characterized by a holistic (top-down) approach to information processing in which meaning is “extracted” from the environment and the situation. Low-context cultures use a linear, sequential building block (bottom-up) approach to information processing in which meaning is constructed” (p.185). In this regard, students who use holistic thought processing are more likely to be disadvantaged in mainstream mathematics classrooms. This is because Westernised mathematics is presented as broken into parts with limited connections made between concepts and with the students’ culture. It potentially conflicts with how they learn. If this is to change the curriculum needs to be made more culture-sensitive and community orientated so that students know and understand what they are learning and for what purposes.
Resumo:
Australia needs highly skilled workers to sustain a healthy economy. Current employment-based training models have limitations in meeting the demands for highly skilled labour supply. The research explored current and emerging models of employment-based training to propose more effective models at higher VET qualifications that can maintain a balance between institution and work-based learning.
Resumo:
Childcare workers play a significant role in the learning and development of children in their care. This has major implications for the training of workers. Under new reforms of the childcare industry the Australian government now requires all workers to obtain qualifications from a vocational education and training provider (eg. Technical and Further Education) or university. Effective models of employment-based training are critical to provide training to highly competent workers. This paper presents findings from a study that examined current and emerging models of employment-based training in the childcare sector, particularly at the Diploma level. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with a sample of 16 participants who represented childcare directors, employers, and workers located in childcare services in urban, regional and remote locations in the State of Queensland. The study proposes a ‘best-fit’ employment-based training approach that is characterised by a compendium of five models instead of a ‘one size fits all’. Issues with successful implementation of the EBT models are also discussed
Resumo:
Youth population is increasing explosively particularly in developing countries as a result of rapid urbanization. This increase is bringing large number of social and economic problems. For instance the impacts of job and training availability, and the physical, social and cultural quality of urban environment on young people are enormous, and affect their health, lifestyles, and well-being (Gleeson and Sipe 2006). Besides this, globalization and technological developments are affecting youth in urban areas in all parts of the world, both positively and negatively (Robertson 1995). The rapidly advancing information and communications technologies (ICTs) helps in addressing social and economic problems caused by the rapid growth of urban youth populations in developing countries. ICTs offer opportunities to young people for learning, skill development and employment. But there are downsides: young people in many developing countries lack of having broad access to these new technologies, they are vulnerable to global market changes, and ICTs link them into global cultures which promote consumer goods, potentially eroding local cultures and community values (Manacorda and Petrongolo 1999). However we believe that the positives outweigh such negatives. At the beginning of the twenty-first century, the world’s young population number more than they ever have. There are over a billion young people between the ages of 15 and 24, which 85 per cent of them live in developing countries and mainly in urban environments. Many of these young people are in the process of making, or have already made, the transition from school to work. During the last two decades all around the world, these young people, as new workers, have faced a number of challenges associated with globalization and technological advances on labour markets (United Nations 2004). The continuous decrease in the manufacturing employment is made many of the young people facing three options: getting jobs in the informal economy with insecurity and poor wages and working conditions, or getting jobs in the low-tier service industries, or developing their vocational skills to benefit from new opportunities in the professional and advanced technical/knowledge sectors. Moreover in developing countries a large portion of young people are not even lucky enough to choose among any of these options, and consequently facing long-term unemployment, which makes them highly vulnerable. The United Nations’ World Youth Employment report (2004) indicates that in almost all countries, females tend to be far more vulnerable than males in terms of long-term unemployment, and young people who have advanced qualifications are far less likely to experience long-term unemployment than others. In the limited opportunities of the formal labour market, those with limited vocational skills resort to forced entrepreneurship and selfemployment in the informal economy, often working for low pay under hazardous conditions, with only few prospects for the future (United Nations 2005a). The International Labour Organization’s research (2004) revealed that the labour force participation rates for young people decreased by almost four per cent (which is equivalent of 88 million young people) between 1993 and 2003. This is largely as a result of the increased number of young people attending school, high overall unemployment rates, and the fact that some young people gave up any hope of finding work and dropped out of the labour market. At the regional level, youth unemployment was highest in Middle East and North Africa (MENA) (25.6%) and sub-Saharan Africa (21%) and lowest in East Asia (7%) and the industrialized economies(13.4%) (International Labour Organization 2004). The youth in economically disadvantaged regions (e.g. the MENA region) face many challenges in education and training that delivers them the right set of skills and knowledge demanded by the labour market. As a consequence, the transition from school to work is mostly unsuccessful and young population end up either unemployed or underemployed in the informal sectors (United Nations 2005b). Unemployment and lack of economic prospects of the urban youth are pushing many of them into criminal acts, excessive alcohol use, substance addiction, and also in many cases resulting in processes of social or political violence (Fernandez-Maldonado 2004; United Nations 2005a). Long-term unemployment leads young people in a process of marginalisation and social exclusion (United Nations 2004). The sustained high rates of long-term youth unemployment have a number of negative effects on societies. First, it results in countries failing to take advantage of the human resources to increase their productive potential, at a time of transition to a globalized world that inexorably demands such leaps in productive capacity. Second, it reinforces the intergenerational transmission of poverty. Third, owing to the discrepancy between more education and exposure to the mass media and fewer employment opportunities, it may encourage the spread of disruptive behaviours, recourse to illegal alternatives for generating income and the loss of basic societal values, all of which erode public safety and social capital. Fourth, it may trigger violent and intractable political conflicts. And lastly, it may exacerbate intergenerational conflicts when young people perceive a lack of opportunity and meritocracy in a system that favours adults who have less formal education and training but more wealth, power and job stability (Hopenhayn 2002). To assist in addressing youth’s skill training and employment problems this paper scrutinises useful international practices, policies, initiatives and programs targeting youth skill training, particularly in ICTs. The MENA national governments and local authorities could consider implementing similar initiative and strategies to address some of the youth employment issues. The broader aim of this paper is to investigate the successful practice and strategies for the information and communication related income generation opportunities for young people to: promote youth entrepreneurship; promote public-private partnerships; target vulnerable groups of young people; narrow digital divide; and put young people in charge. The rest of this paper is organised in five parts. First, the paper provides an overview of the literature on the knowledge economy, skill, education and training issues. Secondly, it reviews the role of ICTs for vocational skill development and employability. Thirdly, it discusses the issues surrounding the development of the digital divide. Fourthly, the paper underlines types and the importance of developing ICT initiatives targeting young people, and reviews some of the successful policy implementations on ICT-based initiatives from both developed and developing countries that offer opportunities to young people for learning, skill development and employment. Then the paper concludes by providing useful generalised recommendations for the MENA region countries and cities in: advocating possible opportunities for ICT generated employment for young people; and discussing how ICT policies could be modified and adopted to meet young people’s needs.
Resumo:
This paper considers the implications of the permanent/transitory decomposition of shocks for identification of structural models in the general case where the model might contain more than one permanent structural shock. It provides a simple and intuitive generalization of the influential work of Blanchard and Quah [1989. The dynamic effects of aggregate demand and supply disturbances. The American Economic Review 79, 655–673], and shows that structural equations with known permanent shocks cannot contain error correction terms, thereby freeing up the latter to be used as instruments in estimating their parameters. The approach is illustrated by a re-examination of the identification schemes used by Wickens and Motto [2001. Estimating shocks and impulse response functions. Journal of Applied Econometrics 16, 371–387], Shapiro and Watson [1988. Sources of business cycle fluctuations. NBER Macroeconomics Annual 3, 111–148], King et al. [1991. Stochastic trends and economic fluctuations. American Economic Review 81, 819–840], Gali [1992. How well does the ISLM model fit postwar US data? Quarterly Journal of Economics 107, 709–735; 1999. Technology, employment, and the business cycle: Do technology shocks explain aggregate fluctuations? American Economic Review 89, 249–271] and Fisher [2006. The dynamic effects of neutral and investment-specific technology shocks. Journal of Political Economy 114, 413–451].
Resumo:
The relationship between employers and employees has been one of the most hotly debated issues in Australia in recent times. Recent legislation such as the Workplace Relations Amendment (Work Choices) Act 2005 and the subsequent Fair Work Act 2009 provides stark evidence of this. The impact of these significant developments is explored and analysed in detail in the new edition of this popular text, complete with a balanced coverage of the often contrasting viewpoints of all stakeholders - from governments, unions and employer associations, through to individual employers and employees. The text outlines different approaches to understanding the nature of the employment relationship, with a contextual background as to how this relationship has changed and developed throughout our nation's history.
Resumo:
Purpose – The purpose of this study is to examine and extend Noer’s theoretical model of the new employment relationship. Design/methodology/approach – Case study methodology is used to scrutinise the model. The results of a literature-based survey on the elements underpinning the five values in the model are analysed from dual perspectives of individual and organization using a multi-source assessment instrument. A schema is developed to guide and inform a series of focus group discussions from an analysis of the survey data. Using content analysis, the transcripts from the focus group discussions are evaluated using the model’s values and their elements. The transcripts are also reviewed for implicit themes. The case studied is Flight Centre Limited, an Australian-based international retail travel company. Findings – Using this approach, some elements of the five values in Noer’s model are identified as characteristic of the company’s psychological contract. Specifically, to some extent, the model’s values of flexible deployment, customer focus, performance focus, project-based work, and human spirit and work can be applied in this case. A further analysis of the transcripts validates three additional values in the psychological contract literature: commitment; learning and development; and open information. As a result of the findings, Noer’s model is extended to eight values. Research limitations/implications – The study offers a research-based model of the new employment relationship. Since generalisations from the case study findings cannot be applied directly to other settings, the opportunity to test this model in a variety of contexts is open to other researchers. Originality/value – In practice, the methodology used is a unique process for benchmarking the psychological contract. The process may be applied in other business settings. By doing so, organization development professionals have a consulting framework for comparing an organization’s dominant psychological contract with the extended model presented here.
Resumo:
This article assesses the 'Managing Diversity' (MD) approach in Australia, examining its drivers, discussing its relationship to legislation designed to promote equity, and examining it as a set of management practices. It has been plausibly argued, on efficiency grounds, that responsibility for achieving equality objectives must be shifted to organisations as this links contextual conditions to organisational processes. However, even where there is some prescription and guidance such as that provided by Australian Equal Employment Opportunity (EEO) legislation targeted specifically to women employees, both practice and outcomes are variable. This is even more the case with MD where there are no guiding principles or legislative support. The article examines the best practice EEO and MD programs of Australian organisations to demonstrate the approaches and programs that are being developed at the workplace and to highlight the limitations of the 'business case' approach underlying such programs.
Resumo:
This paper employs empirical evidence from a survey of Queensland secondary school students to examine their knowledge about their wages and working conditions. It does so within the theoretical lens of the Gagne (or Gagne-Briggs) theory of instruction, which centres on the content of learning and how learning is acquired (Gagne, Briggs & Wager, 1988). While Gagne articulates five categories of learning, our focus here is on two; verbal information or declarative knowledge (facts that people can declare), and procedural knowledge (the rules and procedures for achieving outcomes). We show that student workers know little about the instruments governing their employment, or their workplace entitlements. Of the total sample of year 9 and year 11 students surveyed (n=892), those students who worked, or who had worked in the past year (n=438), were asked to identify whether they were employed under an award, collective agreement or AWA. Eighty three per cent of students did not know which industrial instrument set their wages. We argue that if young workers do not have declarative knowledge of their entitlements, nor basic procedural knowledge about redress, then they are not in a position to deploy Gagne’s ‘cognitive strategies’ that would enable them to take action to ensure their working conditions meet legal minima. We advocate that young workers should be given summary information on their wages and other entitlements on appointment and that such summary information should be readily available on employers’ noticeboards and electronically on company websites, and that the information should include a brief summary of avenues for redressing issues of underpayment or sub-standard conditions.
Resumo:
In this thesis we are interested in financial risk and the instrument we want to use is Value-at-Risk (VaR). VaR is the maximum loss over a given period of time at a given confidence level. Many definitions of VaR exist and some will be introduced throughout this thesis. There two main ways to measure risk and VaR: through volatility and through percentiles. Large volatility in financial returns implies greater probability of large losses, but also larger probability of large profits. Percentiles describe tail behaviour. The estimation of VaR is a complex task. It is important to know the main characteristics of financial data to choose the best model. The existing literature is very wide, maybe controversial, but helpful in drawing a picture of the problem. It is commonly recognised that financial data are characterised by heavy tails, time-varying volatility, asymmetric response to bad and good news, and skewness. Ignoring any of these features can lead to underestimating VaR with a possible ultimate consequence being the default of the protagonist (firm, bank or investor). In recent years, skewness has attracted special attention. An open problem is the detection and modelling of time-varying skewness. Is skewness constant or there is some significant variability which in turn can affect the estimation of VaR? This thesis aims to answer this question and to open the way to a new approach to model simultaneously time-varying volatility (conditional variance) and skewness. The new tools are modifications of the Generalised Lambda Distributions (GLDs). They are four-parameter distributions, which allow the first four moments to be modelled nearly independently: in particular we are interested in what we will call para-moments, i.e., mean, variance, skewness and kurtosis. The GLDs will be used in two different ways. Firstly, semi-parametrically, we consider a moving window to estimate the parameters and calculate the percentiles of the GLDs. Secondly, parametrically, we attempt to extend the GLDs to include time-varying dependence in the parameters. We used the local linear regression to estimate semi-parametrically conditional mean and conditional variance. The method is not efficient enough to capture all the dependence structure in the three indices —ASX 200, S&P 500 and FT 30—, however it provides an idea of the DGP underlying the process and helps choosing a good technique to model the data. We find that GLDs suggest that moments up to the fourth order do not always exist, there existence appears to vary over time. This is a very important finding, considering that past papers (see for example Bali et al., 2008; Hashmi and Tay, 2007; Lanne and Pentti, 2007) modelled time-varying skewness, implicitly assuming the existence of the third moment. However, the GLDs suggest that mean, variance, skewness and in general the conditional distribution vary over time, as already suggested by the existing literature. The GLDs give good results in estimating VaR on three real indices, ASX 200, S&P 500 and FT 30, with results very similar to the results provided by historical simulation.
Resumo:
The project aimed to understand how young people in different socio-demographic categories (age, gender, rurality) conceptualise and negotiate employment relations and the structural mechanisms (education, industry, legislation) through which youth are socialised in employment citizenship. The study extends previous research on youth employment in that it combines data from young people with that from other key actors in education and employment; that is, schools, employers, government, unions and non-government organizations. Despite the disparate nature of these groups there were some common themes regarding young workers. All agreed, for example, that there was a need for a greater level of employment knowledge and understanding among young people and that the current provisions for information dissemination on this subject are inadequate. There was also general consensus that, despite the need for some further clarifications and some potential limitations, the Child Employment Act 2006 (Qld) was beneficial.