电离层参量M(3000)F2和hmF2的经验正交函数方法建模研究

The ionospheric parameter M(3000)F2 (the so-called transmission factor or the propagation factor) is important not only in practical applications such as frequency planning for radio-communication but also in ionospheric modeling. This parameter is strongly anti-correlated with the ionospheric F2-layer peak height hmF2，a parameter often used as a key anchor point in some widely used empirical models of the ionospheric electron density profile (e.g., in IRI and NeQuick models). Since hmF2 is not easy to obtain from measurements and M(3000)F2 can be routinely scaled from ionograms recorded by ionosonde/digisonde stations distributed globally and its data has been accumulated for a long history, usually the value of hmF2 is calculated from M(3000)F2 using the empirical formula connecting them. In practice, CCIR M(3000)F2 model is widely used to obtain M(3000)F2 value. However, recently some authors found that the CCIR M(3000)F2 model has remarkable discrepancies with the measured M(3000)F2, especially in low-latitude and equatorial regions. For this reason, the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) research community proposes to improve or update the currently used CCIR M(3000)F2 model. Any efforts toward the improvement and updating of the current M(3000)F2 model or newly development of a global hmF2 model are encouraged. In this dissertation, an effort is made to construct the empirical models of M(3000)F2 and hmF2 based on the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis combined with regression analysis method. The main results are as follows: 1. A single station model is constructed using monthly median hourly values of M(3000)F2 data observed at Wuhan Ionospheric Observatory during the years of 1957–1991 and compared with the IRI model. The result shows that EOF method is possible to use only a few orders of EOF components to represent most of the variance of the original data set. It is a powerful method for ionospheric modeling. 2. Using the values of M(3000)F2 observed by ionosondes distributed globally, data at grids uniformly distributed globally were obtained by using the Kriging interpolation method. Then the gridded data were decomposed into EOF components using two different coordinates: (1) geographical longitude and latitude; (2) modified dip (Modip) and local time. Based on the EOF decompositions of the gridded data under these two coordinates systems, two types of the global M(3000)F2 model are constructed. Statistical analysis showed that the two types of the constructed M(3000)F2 model have better agreement with the observational M(3000)F2 than the M(3000)F2 model currently used by IRI. The constructed models can represent the global variations of M(3000)F2 better. 3. The hmF2 data used to construct the hmF2 model were converted from the observed M(3000)F2 based on the empirical formula connecting them. We also constructed two types of the global hmF2 model using the similar method of modeling M(3000)F2. Statistical analysis showed that the prediction of our models is more accurate than the model of IRI. This demonstrated that using EOF analysis method to construct global model of hmF2 directly is feasible. The results in this thesis indicate that the modeling technique based on EOF expansion combined with regression analysis is very promising when used to construct the global models of M(3000)F2 and hmF2. It is worthwhile to investigate further and has the potential to be used to the global modeling of other ionospheric parameters.

Probabilistic modeling of structural deterioration of reinforced concrete beams under saline environment corrosion

For existing reinforced concrete structures exposed to saline or marine conditions, there is an increasing engineering interest in their remaining safety and serviceability. A significant factor is the corrosion of steel reinforcement. At present there is little field experience and other data available. This limits the possibility for developing purely empirical models for strength and performance deterioration for use in structural safety and serviceability assessment. An alternative approach using theoretical concepts and probabilistic modeling is proposed herein. It is based on the evidence that the rate of diffusion of chlorides is influenced by internal damage to the concrete surrounding the reinforcement. This may be due to localized stresses resulting from external loading or through concrete shrinkage. Usually, the net effect is that the time to initiation of active corrosion is shortened, leading to greater localized corrosion and earlier reduction of ultimate capacity and structural stiffness. The proposed procedure is applied to an example beam and compared to experimental observations,including estimates of uncertainty in the remaining ultimate moment capacity and beam stiffness. Reasonably good agreement between the results of the proposed procedure and the experiment was found

The Ocean Colour Climate Change Initiative: III. A round-robin comparison on in-water bio-optical algorithms

Satellite-derived remote-sensing reflectance (Rrs) can be used for mapping biogeochemically relevant variables, such as the chlorophyll concentration and the Inherent Optical Properties (IOPs) of the water, at global scale for use in climate-change studies. Prior to generating such products, suitable algorithms have to be selected that are appropriate for the purpose. Algorithm selection needs to account for both qualitative and quantitative requirements. In this paper we develop an objective methodology designed to rank the quantitative performance of a suite of bio-optical models. The objective classification is applied using the NASA bio-Optical Marine Algorithm Dataset (NOMAD). Using in situRrs as input to the models, the performance of eleven semi-analytical models, as well as five empirical chlorophyll algorithms and an empirical diffuse attenuation coefficient algorithm, is ranked for spectrally-resolved IOPs, chlorophyll concentration and the diffuse attenuation coefficient at 489 nm. The sensitivity of the objective classification and the uncertainty in the ranking are tested using a Monte-Carlo approach (bootstrapping). Results indicate that the performance of the semi-analytical models varies depending on the product and wavelength of interest. For chlorophyll retrieval, empirical algorithms perform better than semi-analytical models, in general. The performance of these empirical models reflects either their immunity to scale errors or instrument noise in Rrs data, or simply that the data used for model parameterisation were not independent of NOMAD. Nonetheless, uncertainty in the classification suggests that the performance of some semi-analytical algorithms at retrieving chlorophyll is comparable with the empirical algorithms. For phytoplankton absorption at 443 nm, some semi-analytical models also perform with similar accuracy to an empirical model. We discuss the potential biases, limitations and uncertainty in the approach, as well as additional qualitative considerations for algorithm selection for climate-change studies. Our classification has the potential to be routinely implemented, such that the performance of emerging algorithms can be compared with existing algorithms as they become available. In the long-term, such an approach will further aid algorithm development for ocean-colour studies.

The electron pressure in the outer atmosphere of ∈ Eri (K2 V)

Observations of ? Eri (K2 V) have been made with the Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph on the Hubble Space Telescope. The spectra obtained show a number of emission lines which can be used to determine, or place limits on, the electron density and pressure. Values of the electron pressure are required in order to make quantitative models of the transition region and inner corona from absolute line fluxes, and to constrain semi-empirical models of the chromosphere. Using line flux ratios in Si II and O IV a mean electron pressure of P = NT = 4.8 × 10 cm K is derived. This value is compatible with the lower and upper limits to P found from flux ratios in C III, O V and Fe XII. Some inconsistencies which may be because of small uncertainties in the atomic data used are discussed.

Are power laws that estimate fractal dimension a good descriptor of soil structure and its link to soil biological properties?

The study of interrelationships between soil structure and its functional properties is complicated by the fact that the quantitative description of soil structure is challenging. Soil scientists have tackled this challenge by taking advantage of approaches such as fractal geometry, which describes soil architectural complexity through a scaling exponent (D) relating mass and numbers of particles/aggregates to particle/aggregate size. Typically, soil biologists use empirical indices such as mean weight diameters (MWD) and percent of water stable aggregates (WSA), or the entire size distribution, and they have successfully related these indices to key soil features such as C and N dynamics and biological promoters of soil structure. Here, we focused on D, WSA and MWD and we tested whether: D estimated by the exponent of the power law of number-size distributions is a good and consistent correlate of MWD and WSA; D carries information that differs from MWD and WSA; the fraction of variation in D that is uncorrelated with MWD and WSA is related to soil chemical and biological properties that are thought to establish interdependence with soil structure (e.g., organic C, N, arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi). We analysed observational data from a broad scale field study and results from a greenhouse experiment where arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) and collembola altered soil structure. We were able to develop empirical models that account for a highly significant and large portion of the correlation observed between WSA and MWD but we did not uncover the mechanisms that underlie this correlation. We conclude that most of the covariance between D and soil biotic (AMF, plant roots) and abiotic (C. N) properties can be accounted for by WSA and MWD. This result implies that the ecological effects of the fragmentation properties described by D and generally discussed under the framework of fractal models can be interpreted under the intuitive perspective of simpler indices and we suggest that the biotic components mostly impacted the largest size fractions, which dominate MWD, WSA and the scaling exponent ruling number-size distributions. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Investigation of influence of process variables on mechanical strength, size and homogeneity of pharmaceutical granules produced by fluidised hot melt granulation

The overall aim of the project was to study the influence of process variables on the distribution of a model active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) during fluidised melt granulation of pharmaceutical granules with a view of optimising product characteristics. Granules were produced using common pharmaceutical excipients; lactose monohydrate using poly ethylene glycol (PEG1500) as a meltable binder. Methylene blue was used as a model API. Empirical models relating the process variables to the granules properties such as granule mean size, product homogeneity and granule strength were developed using the design of experiment approach. Fluidising air velocity and fluidising air temperature were shown to strongly influence the product properties. Optimisation studies showed that strong granules with homogeneous distribution of the active ingredient can be produced at high fluidising air velocity and at high fluidising air temperatures.

Investigation of the process energy demand in polymer extrusion: a brief review and an experimental study

Extrusion is one of the fundamental production methods in the polymer processing industry and is used in the production of a large number of commodities in a diverse industrial sector. Being an energy intensive production method, process energy efficiency is one of the major concerns and the selection of the most energy efficient processing conditions is a key to reducing operating costs. Usually, extruders consume energy through the drive motor, barrel heaters, cooling fans, cooling water pumps, gear pumps, etc. Typically the drive motor is the largest energy consuming device in an extruder while barrel/die heaters are responsible for the second largest energy demand. This study is focused on investigating the total energy demand of an extrusion plant under various processing conditions while identifying ways to optimise the energy efficiency. Initially, a review was carried out on the monitoring and modelling of the energy consumption in polymer extrusion. Also, the power factor, energy demand and losses of a typical extrusion plant were discussed in detail. The mass throughput, total energy consumption and power factor of an extruder were experimentally observed over different processing conditions and the total extruder energy demand was modelled empirically and also using a commercially available extrusion simulation software. The experimental results show that extruder energy demand is heavily coupled between the machine, material and process parameters. The total power predicted by the simulation software exhibits a lagging offset compared with the experimental measurements. Empirical models are in good agreement with the experimental measurements and hence these can be used in studying process energy behaviour in detail and to identify ways to optimise the process energy efficiency.

Contaminated soil exposure assessment in Portugal and in the EU

Este estudo baseou-se na análise dos mecanismos de transferência de elementos potencialmente tóxicos (PTE’s) entre o solo, a solução do solo e as plantas como forma de realizar uma avaliação mais eficaz do risco em áreas agrícolas. Foram aplicados conceitos recentemente desenvolvidos para a avaliação da reactividade biogeoquímica de contaminantes no solo e da sua partição sólido:solução recorrendo-se a modelos empíricos (tipo Freundlich). Estes modelos permitiram analisar a transferência de PTE’s ao longo da cadeia alimentar e avaliar o impacto da contaminação do solo na qualidade da alimentação animal (forragens) e Humana (vegetais e carne) em Portugal. Os modelos empíricos de transferência solo-planta de PTE’s foram utilizadas para obter limites críticos para estes elementos em solos agrícolas em Portugal, a partir dos seus limites legais nos alimentos para animais e teores máximos nos géneros alimentícios. Simultaneamente, modelos de exposição Humana a contaminantes do solo, desenvolvidos noutros países da UE foram analisados e foi proposto um modelo de exposição para Portugal. Este trabalho é uma contribuição para o desenvolvimento de critérios de qualidade de solos para áreas agrícolas em Portugal, tendo em vista a protecção da saúde animal e Humana. Contribuiu também para o desenvolvimento de uma estratégia de harmonização de políticas de protecção do solo (nomeadamente no que diz respeito aos problemas de contaminação) na União Europeia.

The causal relationship between private and public investment in Zimbabwe

Aims: The study examines the relationship between private and public investment in Zimbabwe utilizing yearly time series data for the period 1967 to 2004. Study Design: Time Series Study. Place and Duration of Study: Zimbabwe, May 2011 to July 2011. Methodology: Emphasis is placed on the direction of causality and the long run and short run effect of the two types of investment on each other. The paper constructs empirical models for both private and public investment, based on the flexible accelerator theory. Private investment is found to be cointegrated with public investment. A cointergration and VEC models are employed to assess the long and short run relationship existing between public and private investment. Conclusion: The relationship between private and public investment is found to be insignificant and the direction of causality found to be unidirectional. The results support the notion that private investment precedes public investment.

A relação entre o governo e das sociedades e a responsabilidade social: estudo de caso das empresas cotadas no PSI20

Dissertação de Mestrado apresentada ao Instituto Superior de Contabilidade e Administração do Porto para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Auditoria sob orientação de Mestre Helena Maria Santos de Oliveira

Estrutura de financiamento das empresas start-up

Atualmente, o contexto de atuação das empresas tem sido cada vez mais desafiante dado o binómio de competitividade e crise financeira. Desta forma, a exploração de novas soluções e identificação de lacunas ou desequilíbrios no mercado torna-se imperial para o desenvolvimento das novas entidades. É com base nesta premissa que emerge o conceito de Start-Up, sendo o seu propósito o desenvolvimento de novos produtos e modelos de negócios inovadores. Como resultado, estas empresas tornam-se num elemento revitalizador do tecido económico dos países em que estão inseridas. De forma a possibilitar a potenciação das atividades desenvolvidas por estas entidades é crucial a identificação das diversas fontes de recursos financeiros e as consequentes contrapartidas exigidas. No entanto, dado o seu caráter inovador obviamente que vários são os riscos lhes estão associados, pelo que estas empresas deparam-se com mais dificuldades no momento de acesso aos recursos financeiros que pretendem. Desta forma, a presente dissertação analisa as tendências de financiamento das Start-Up tendo como motivação o facto desta temática ainda não se encontrar devidamente explorada e dado o desconhecimento desta realidade em Portugal. Neste sentido, e aliando a problemática existente com a motivação para a concretização da presente dissertação foram realizados um conjunto de inquéritos os quais foram aliados com o desenvolvimento de modelos empíricos multivariados aplicados aos dados seccionais e em painel. Os resultados alcançados com a investigação empírica permitiram concluir a influência de um conjunto de variáveis bem como justificar a orientação e estrutura de financiamento das Start-Up portuguesas. Das variáveis investigadas de ressalvar a influência significativa da Dimensão da Empresa, Estrutura de Ativos e Forma Legal no financiamento das Start-Up nacionais.

Intégration du concept de capacité de support d’un plan d’eau aux apports en phosphore à l’aménagement du territoire au Québec : Réalité ou utopie?

Ce mémoire a comme objectif de présenter une revue de la littérature et une analyse comparative des différents modèles existants pour le calcul de la capacité de support d’un plan d’eau aux apports en phosphore. Ce document a aussi pour but d’évaluer les différentes options pour l’utilisation de ce genre d’outil au Québec, ainsi que d’amorcer une réflexion sur les applications possibles de ce concept au niveau local, en lien avec l’aménagement du territoire des bassins versants. L’analyse comparative des modèles théoriques, combinée à la réflexion d’acteurs clés impliqués actuellement dans un processus qui consiste à tester leur utilisation dans les Laurentides au Québec, a permis de mettre en relief l’importance de calibrer les modèles régionalement. De plus, certains avantages semblent résider dans l’utilisation d’un modèle de nature empirique afin d’effectuer les prédictions sur les apports naturels et totaux en phosphore pour les lacs de cette région. Par contre, l’utilisation d’une approche de type « bilan de masse », s’avère tout de même indispensable afin de relativiser l’importance des différents apports anthropiques en phosphore du bassin versant. Dans l’avenir, l’utilisation de tels modèles permettra possiblement de justifier certaines mesures restrictives au développement des bassins versants, qui pourront s’insérer parmi les outils d’urbanisme actuels. Ce sont principalement les municipalités qui détiennent les pouvoirs nécessaires afin d’intégrer les prescriptions découlant de ce genre d’analyse à l’aménagement du territoire des bassins versants. Plusieurs outils d’urbanisme, tels que les plans d’aménagement d’ensemble (PAE) ou bien les règlements de zonage et de lotissement, semblent donner assez de latitude afin de permettre aux municipalités d’intervenir en ce sens. Toutefois, les modèles de capacité de support ne pourront pas être utilisés afin de calculer un nombre précis d’habitations qu’il est possible de construire dans le bassin versant d’un lac.

Recherche et caractérisation des étoiles jeunes de faible masse dans le voisinage solaire

L'outil développé dans le cadre de cette thèse est disponible à l'adresse suivante: www.astro.umontreal.ca/~malo/banyan.php

Predicting the profile of nutrients available for absorption: from nutrient requirement to animal response and environmental impact

Current feed evaluation systems for dairy cattle aim to match nutrient requirements with nutrient intake at pre-defined production levels. These systems were not developed to address, and are not suitable to predict, the responses to dietary changes in terms of production level and product composition, excretion of nutrients to the environment, and nutrition related disorders. The change from a requirement to a response system to meet the needs of various stakeholders requires prediction of the profile of absorbed nutrients and its subsequent utilisation for various purposes. This contribution examines the challenges to predicting the profile of nutrients available for absorption in dairy cattle and provides guidelines for further improved prediction with regard to animal production responses and environmental pollution. The profile of nutrients available for absorption comprises volatile fatty acids, long-chain fatty acids, amino acids and glucose. Thus the importance of processes in the reticulo-rumen is obvious. Much research into rumen fermentation is aimed at determination of substrate degradation rates. Quantitative knowledge on rates of passage of nutrients out of the rumen is rather limited compared with that on degradation rates, and thus should be an important theme in future research. Current systems largely ignore microbial metabolic variation, and extant mechanistic models of rumen fermentation give only limited attention to explicit representation of microbial metabolic activity. Recent molecular techniques indicate that knowledge on the presence and activity of various microbial species is far from complete. Such techniques may give a wealth of information, but to include such findings in systems predicting the nutrient profile requires close collaboration between molecular scientists and mathematical modellers on interpreting and evaluating quantitative data. Protozoal metabolism is of particular interest here given the paucity of quantitative data. Empirical models lack the biological basis necessary to evaluate mitigation strategies to reduce excretion of waste, including nitrogen, phosphorus and methane. Such models may have little predictive value when comparing various feeding strategies. Examples include the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Tier II models to quantify methane emissions and current protein evaluation systems to evaluate low protein diets to reduce nitrogen losses to the environment. Nutrient based mechanistic models can address such issues. Since environmental issues generally attract more funding from governmental offices, further development of nutrient based models may well take place within an environmental framework.

Disease-weather relationships for powdery mildew and yellow rust on winter wheat

Key weather factors determining the occurrence and severity of powdery mildew and yellow rust epidemics on winter wheat were identified. Empirical models were formulated to qualitatively predict a damaging epidemic (>5% severity) and quantitatively predict the disease severity given a damaging epidemic occurred. The disease data used was from field experiments at 12 locations in the UK covering the period from 1994 to 2002 with matching data from weather stations within a 5 km range. Wind in December to February was the most influential factor for a damaging epidemic of powdery mildew. Disease severity was best identified by a model with temperature, humidity, and rain in April to June. For yellow rust, the temperature in February to June was the most influential factor for a damaging epidemic as well as for disease severity. The qualitative models identified favorable circumstances for damaging epidemics, but damaging epidemics did not always occur in such circumstances, probably due to other factors such as the availability of initial inoculum and cultivar resistance.