Duration-frequency relationships of heavy rainfall in Santa Catarina, Brazil

The purpose of this study was to adjust equations that establish relationships between rainfall events with different duration and data from weather stations in the state of Santa Catarina, Brazil. In this study, the relationships between different duration heavy rainfalls from 13 weather stations of Santa Catarina were analyzed. From series of maximum annual rainfalls, and using the Gumbel-Chow distribution, the maximum rainfall for durations between 5 min and 24 h were estimated considering return periods from 2 to 100 years. The data fit to the Gumbel-Chow model was verified by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test at 5 % significance. The coefficients of Bell's equation were adjusted to estimate the relationship between rainfall duration t (min) and the return period T (y) in relation to the maximum rainfall with a duration of 1 hour and a 10 year return period. Likewise, the coefficients of Bell's equation were adjusted based on the maximum rainfall with a duration of 1 day and a 10 year return period. The results showed that these relationships are viable to estimate short-duration rainfall events at locations where there are no rainfall records.

Effects on blood pressure and cardiovascular risk of variations in patients' adherence to prescribed antihypertensive drugs: role of duration of drug action.

P>Aim: To determine the effects of imperfect adherence (i.e. occasionally missing prescribed doses), and the influence of rate of loss of antihypertensive effect during treatment interruption, on the predicted clinical effectiveness of antihypertensive drugs in reducing mean systolic blood pressure (SBP) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk.Method:The effects of imperfect adherence to antihypertensive treatment regimens were estimated using published patterns of missed doses, and taking into account the rate of loss of antihypertensive effect when doses are missed (loss of BP reduction in mmHg/day; the off-rate), which varies between drugs. Outcome measures were the predicted mean SBP reduction and CVD risk, determined from the Framingham Risk Equation for CVD.Results:In patients taking 75% of prescribed doses (typical of clinical practice), only long-acting drugs with an off-rate of similar to 1 mmHg/day were predicted to maintain almost the full mean SBP-lowering effect throughout the modelled period. In such patients, using shorter-acting drugs (e.g. an off-rate of similar to 5-6 mmHg/day) was predicted to lead to a clinically relevant loss of mean SBP reduction of > 2 mmHg. This change also influenced the predicted CVD risk reduction; in patients with a baseline 10-year CVD risk of 27.0% and who were taking 75% of prescribed doses, a difference in off-rate from 1 to 5 mmHg/day led to a predicted 0.5% absolute increase in 10-year CVD risk.Conclusions:In patients who occasionally miss doses of antihypertensives, modest differences in the rate of loss of antihypertensive effect following treatment interruption may have a clinically relevant impact on SBP reduction and CVD risk. While clinicians must make every effort to counsel and encourage each of their patients to adhere to their prescribed medication, it may also be prudent to prescribe drugs with a low off-rate to mitigate the potential consequences of missing doses.

Determination of the critical period of weed control in corn using a thermal basis

Field studies were conducted over 3 years in southeast Buenos Aires, Argentina, to determine the critical period of weed control in maize (Zea mays L.). The treatments consisted of two different periods of weed interference, a critical weed-free period, and a critical time of weed removal. The Gompertz and logistic equations were fitted to relative yields representing the critical weed-free and the critical time of weed removal, respectively. Accumulated thermal units were used to describe each period of weed-free or weed removal. The critical weed-free period and the critical time of weed removal ranged from 222 to 416 and 128 to 261 accumulated thermal units respectively, to prevent yield losses of 2.5%. Weed biomass proved to be inverse to the crop yield for all the years studied. When weeds competed with the crop from emergence, a large increase in weed biomass was achieved 10 days after crop emergence. However, few weed seedlings emerged and prospered after the 5-6 leaf maize stage (10-20 days after emergence).

Persistent association of nailfold capillaroscopy changes and skin involvement over thirty-six months with duration of untreated disease in patients with juvenile dermatomyositis.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the association of changes on nailfold capillaroscopy with clinical findings and genotype in children with juvenile dermatomyositis (DM), in order to identify potential differences in disease course over 36 months. METHODS: At diagnosis of juvenile DM in 61 children prior to the initiation of treatment, tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNFalpha) -308 allele and DQA1*0501 status was determined, juvenile DM Disease Activity Scores (DAS) were obtained, and nailfold capillaroscopy was performed. The disease course was monitored for 36 months. Variations within and between patients were assessed by regression analysis. RESULTS: At diagnosis, shorter duration of untreated disease (P = 0.05) and a lower juvenile DM skin DAS (P = 0.035) were associated with a unicyclic disease course. Over 36 months, end-row loop (ERL) regeneration was associated with lower skin DAS (P < 0.001) but not muscle DAS (P = 0.98); ERL regeneration and decreased bushy loops were associated with a shorter duration of untreated disease (P = 0.04 for both). At 36 months, increased ERL regeneration (P = 0.007) and improvement of skin DAS (P < 0.001) and muscle DAS (P = 0.025) were associated with a unicyclic disease course. CONCLUSION: Early treatment of juvenile DM may lead to a unicyclic disease course. The non-unicyclic disease course usually involves continuing skin manifestations with persistent nailfold capillaroscopy changes. The correlation of nailfold capillaroscopy results with cutaneous but not with musculoskeletal signs of juvenile DM over a 36-month period suggests that the cutaneous and muscle vasculopathies have different pathophysiologic mechanisms. These findings indicate that efforts to identify the optimal treatment of cutaneous features in juvenile DM require greater attention.

Impact of Duration of Primary Education on School Enrollment, Graduation and Drop-outs: A Cross- Country Analysis

Using a panel data for non-OECD countries covering the period 1970-2012, this chapter analyzes the impact of the duration of primary education on school enrollment, drop-out and completion rates. The empirical results show that for children in elementary school one ad- ditional grade of primary education have a negative impact on the enrollment rate, while the e ect on drop-outs is positive. Analogously, it is obtained that an additional grade in primary education reduces the enrollment rate in secondary education. These results are in line with the fertility model approach, that is, in developing and underdeveloped countries parents do not have incentive to send children to school given the high perceived economic value of children.

The effect of a period of intensive exercise on the isoform test to detect growth hormone doping in sports.

OBJECTIVE: The major objective of this study was to investigate the effects of several days of intense exercise on growth hormone (hGH) testing using the World Anti-Doping Agencies hGH isoform differential immunoassays. Additionally the effects of circadian variation and exercise type on the isoform ratios were also investigated. STUDY DESIGN: 15 male athletes performed a simulated nine day cycling stage race. Blood samples were collected twice daily over a period of 15days (stage race+three days before and after). hGH isoforms were analysed by the official WADA immunoassays (CMZ Assay GmbH). RESULTS: All measured isoform ratios were far below the WADA decision limits for an adverse analytical finding. Changes in the isoform ratios could not be clearly connected to circadian variation, exercise duration or intensity. CONCLUSIONS: The present study demonstrates that the hGH isoform ratios are not significantly affected by exercise or circadian variation. We demonstrated that heavy, long term exercise does not interfere with the decision limits for an adverse analytical finding.

Long-term changes in rice development in Southern Brazil, during the last ten decades

The objective of this work was to test long-term trends in the duration of rice development phases in Santa Maria, RS, Brazil. The duration from emergence to V3 (EM-V3), emergence to panicle differentiation (EM-R1), emergence to anthesis (EM-R4), and emergence to all grains with brown hull (EM-R9) was calculated using leaf appearance and developmental models for four rice cultivars (IRGA 421, IRGA 417, EPAGRI 109, and EEA 406), for the period from 1912 to 2011, considering three emergence dates (early, mid, and late). The trend of the time series was tested with the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test, and the magnitude of the trend was estimated with simple linear regression. Rice development has changed over the last ten decades in this location, leading to an anticipation of harvest time of 17 to 31 days, depending on the cultivar maturity group and emergence date, which is related to trends of temperature increase during the growing season. Warmer temperatures over the evaluated time period are responsible for changing rice phenology in this location, since minimum and maximum daily temperature drive the rice developmental models used.

Emergence of oriented circuits driven by synaptic pruning associated with spike-timing-dependent plasticity (STDP)

ABSTRACT: Massive synaptic pruning following over-growth is a general feature of mammalian brain maturation. Pruning starts near time of birth and is completed by time of sexual maturation. Trigger signals able to induce synaptic pruning could be related to dynamic functions that depend on the timing of action potentials. Spike-timing-dependent synaptic plasticity (STDP) is a change in the synaptic strength based on the ordering of pre- and postsynaptic spikes. The relation between synaptic efficacy and synaptic pruning suggests that the weak synapses may be modified and removed through competitive "learning" rules. This plasticity rule might produce the strengthening of the connections among neurons that belong to cell assemblies characterized by recurrent patterns of firing. Conversely, the connections that are not recurrently activated might decrease in efficiency and eventually be eliminated. The main goal of our study is to determine whether or not, and under which conditions, such cell assemblies may emerge out of a locally connected random network of integrate-and-fire units distributed on a 2D lattice receiving background noise and content-related input organized in both temporal and spatial dimensions. The originality of our study stands on the relatively large size of the network, 10,000 units, the duration of the experiment, 10E6 time units (one time unit corresponding to the duration of a spike), and the application of an original bio-inspired STDP modification rule compatible with hardware implementation. A first batch of experiments was performed to test that the randomly generated connectivity and the STDP-driven pruning did not show any spurious bias in absence of stimulation. Among other things, a scale factor was approximated to compensate for the network size on the ac¬tivity. Networks were then stimulated with the spatiotemporal patterns. The analysis of the connections remaining at the end of the simulations, as well as the analysis of the time series resulting from the interconnected units activity, suggest that feed-forward circuits emerge from the initially randomly connected networks by pruning. RESUME: L'élagage massif des synapses après une croissance excessive est une phase normale de la ma¬turation du cerveau des mammifères. L'élagage commence peu avant la naissance et est complété avant l'âge de la maturité sexuelle. Les facteurs déclenchants capables d'induire l'élagage des synapses pourraient être liés à des processus dynamiques qui dépendent de la temporalité rela¬tive des potentiels d'actions. La plasticité synaptique à modulation temporelle relative (STDP) correspond à un changement de la force synaptique basé sur l'ordre des décharges pré- et post- synaptiques. La relation entre l'efficacité synaptique et l'élagage des synapses suggère que les synapses les plus faibles pourraient être modifiées et retirées au moyen d'une règle "d'appren¬tissage" faisant intervenir une compétition. Cette règle de plasticité pourrait produire le ren¬forcement des connexions parmi les neurones qui appartiennent à une assemblée de cellules caractérisée par des motifs de décharge récurrents. A l'inverse, les connexions qui ne sont pas activées de façon récurrente pourraient voir leur efficacité diminuée et être finalement éliminées. Le but principal de notre travail est de déterminer s'il serait possible, et dans quelles conditions, que de telles assemblées de cellules émergent d'un réseau d'unités integrate-and¬-fire connectées aléatoirement et distribuées à la surface d'une grille bidimensionnelle recevant à la fois du bruit et des entrées organisées dans les dimensions temporelle et spatiale. L'originalité de notre étude tient dans la taille relativement grande du réseau, 10'000 unités, dans la durée des simulations, 1 million d'unités de temps (une unité de temps correspondant à une milliseconde), et dans l'utilisation d'une règle STDP originale compatible avec une implémentation matérielle. Une première série d'expériences a été effectuée pour tester que la connectivité produite aléatoirement et que l'élagage dirigé par STDP ne produisaient pas de biais en absence de stimu¬lation extérieure. Entre autres choses, un facteur d'échelle a pu être approximé pour compenser l'effet de la variation de la taille du réseau sur son activité. Les réseaux ont ensuite été stimulés avec des motifs spatiotemporels. L'analyse des connexions se maintenant à la fin des simulations, ainsi que l'analyse des séries temporelles résultantes de l'activité des neurones, suggèrent que des circuits feed-forward émergent par l'élagage des réseaux initialement connectés au hasard.

Pego do Diabo (Loures, Portugal): Dating the Emergence of Anatomical Modernity in Westernmost Eurasia

Neandertals and the Middle Paleolithic persisted in the Iberian Peninsula south of the Ebro drainage system for several millennia beyond their assimilation/replacement elsewhere in Europe. As only modern humans are associated with the later stages of the Aurignacian, the duration of this persistence pattern can be assessed via the dating of diagnostic occurrences of such stages.

Effect of short-duration lipid supplementation on fat oxidation during exercise and cycling performance.

The effect of intramyocellular lipids (IMCLs) on endurance performance with high skeletal muscle glycogen availability remains unclear. Previous work has shown that a lipid-supplemented high-carbohydrate (CHO) diet increases IMCLs while permitting normal glycogen loading. The aim of this study was to assess the effect of fat supplementation on fat oxidation (Fox) and endurance performance. Twenty-two trained male cyclists performed 2 simulated time trials (TT) in a randomized crossover design. Subjects cycled at ∼53% maximal voluntary external power for 2 h and then followed 1 of 2 diets for 2.5 days: a high-CHO low-fat (HC) diet, consisting of CHO 7.4 g·kg(-1)·day(-1) and fat 0.5 g·kg(-1)·day(-1); or a high-CHO fat-supplemented (HCF) diet, which was a replication of the HC diet with ∼240 g surplus fat (30% saturation) distributed over the last 4 meals of the diet period. On trial morning, fasting blood was sampled and Fox was measured during an incremental exercise; a ∼1-h TT followed. Breath volatile compounds (VOCs) were measured at 3 time points. Mental fatigue, measured as reaction time, was evaluated during the TT. Plasma free fatty acid concentration was 50% lower after the HCF diet (p < 0.0001), and breath acetone was reduced (p < 0.05) "at rest". Fox peaked (∼0.35 g·kg(-1)) at ∼42% peak oxygen consumption, and was not influenced by diet. Performance was not significantly different between the HCF and HC diets (3369 ± 46 s vs 3398 ± 48 s; p = 0.39), nor were reaction times to the attention task and VOCs (p = NS for both). In conclusion, the short-term intake of a lipid supplement in combination with a glycogen-loading diet designed to boost intramyocellular lipids while avoiding fat adaptation did not alter substrate oxidation during exercise or 1-hour cycling performance.

Duration of untreated psychosis: Impact of the definition of treatment onset on its predictive value over three years of treatment.

BACKGROUND: While reduction of DUP (Duration of Untreated Psychosis) is a key goal in early intervention strategies, the predictive value of DUP on outcome has been questioned. We planned this study in order to explore the impact of three different definition of "treatment initiation" on the predictive value of DUP on outcome in an early psychosis sample. METHODS: 221 early psychosis patients aged 18-35 were followed-up prospectively over 36 months. DUP was measured using three definitions for treatment onset: Initiation of antipsychotic medication (DUP1); engagement in a specialized programme (DUP2) and combination of engagement in a specialized programme and adherence to medication (DUP3). RESULTS: 10% of patients never reached criteria for DUP3 and therefore were never adequately treated over the 36-month period of care. While DUP1 and DUP2 had a limited predictive value on outcome, DUP3, based on a more restrictive definition for treatment onset, was a better predictor of positive and negative symptoms, as well as functional outcome at 12, 24 and 36 months. Globally, DUP3 explained 2 to 5 times more of the variance than DUP1 and DUP2, with effect sizes falling in the medium range according to Cohen. CONCLUSIONS: The limited predictive value of DUP on outcome in previous studies may be linked to problems of definitions that do not take adherence to treatment into account. While they need replication, our results suggest effort to reduce DUP should continue and aim both at early detection and development of engagement strategies.

Spatial and Temporal Trends in Sunshine Duration over Western Europe

This work analyzes sunshine duration variability in the western part of Europe (WEU) over the 1938– 2004 period. A principal component analysis is applied to cluster the original series from 79 sites into 6 regions, and then annual and seasonal mean series are constructed on regional and also for the whole WEU scales. Over the entire period studied here, the linear trend of annual sunshine duration is found to be nonsignificant. However, annual sunshine duration shows an overall decrease since the 1950s until the early 1980s, followed by a subsequent recovery during the last two decades. This behavior is in good agreement with the dimming and brightening phenomena described in previous literature. From the seasonal analysis, the most remarkable result is the similarity between spring and annual series, although the spring series has a negative trend; and the clear significant increase found for the whole WEU winter series, being especially large since the 1970s. The behavior of the major synoptic patterns for two seasons is investigated, resulting in some indications that sunshine duration evolution may be partially explained by changes in the frequency of some of them

Effect of temperature, wetness duration and cultivar on the development of anthracnose in guava fruits

The development of a large number of postharvest diseases is closely associated with fruit ripeness. Environmental conditions may affect both the pathogen development and the fruit ripening rate. The aim of this study was to determine the most favorable temperature and wetness duration to the development of anthracnose in guava fruits. Cultivars 'Kumagai' (white pulp) and 'Pedro Sato' (red pulp) were inoculated with a conidial suspension of Colletotrichum gloeosporioides and C. acutatum and incubated at constant temperature ranging from 10 to 35ºC and wetness duration of 6 and 24 hours. Disease severity and incidence were evaluated at every two days during 12 days. No infection occurred at 10 and 35ºC, regardless of the wetness duration. The optimum conditions for fruit infection were 26 and 27ºC for 'Kumagai' and 25 and 26ºC for 'Pedro Sato', adopting 24 hours of wetness. In general, the disease development in 'Kumagai' cultivar was more affected by the wetness period, compared to 'Pedro Sato'. Disease severity for 'Kumagai' fruits was maximal between 25 and 30ºC , depending on the Colletotrichum species. Regarding 'Pedro Sato', the mean diameter of lesions was greater in fruits stored at 20, 25 and 30ºC , compared to 'Kumagai' cultivar, depending on the wetness period and the species. The incubation period (between 6 and 7 days) and the latent period (between 8 and 10 days) were minimal at 30ºC. The data generated in this study will be useful either for the development of a disease warning system or for the increase in the shelf life of guavas in the postharvest.

Influence of temperature and leaf wetness duration in the severity of Cercospora leaf spot of beet

ABSTRACT In the present study, the influence of temperature (15, 20, 25, 30 and 35°C) and leaf wetness period (6, 12, 24 and 48 hours) on the severity of Cercospora leaf spot of beet, caused by Cercospora beticola, was studied under controlled conditions. Lesion density was influenced by temperature and leaf wetness duration (P<0.05). Data were subjected to nonlinear regression analysis. The generalized beta function was used for fitting the disease severity and temperature data, while a logistic function was chosen to represent the effect of leaf wetness on the severity of Cercospora leaf spot. The response surface resultant of the product of the two functions was expressed as ES = 0.0001105 * (((x-8)2.294387) * ((36-x)0.955017)) * (0.39219/(1+25.93072 * exp (-0.16704*y))), where: ES represents the estimated severity value (0.1); x, the temperature (ºC) and y, the leaf wetness duration (hours). This model should be validated under field conditions to assess its use as a computational forecast system for Cercospora leaf spot of beet.

Spatial variability of leaf wetness duration in a 'Niagara Rosada' vineyard

Despite considerable efforts to develop accurate electronic sensors to measure leaf wetness duration (LWD), little attention has been given to studies about how is LWD variability in different positions of the crop canopy. In order to evaluate the influence of 'Niagara Rosada' (Vitis labrusca) grapevine structure on the spatial variability of LWD, the objective of this study was to determine the canopy position of the ‘Niagara Rosada’ table grape with longer LWD and its correlation with measured standard LWD over turfgrass. LWD was measured in four different canopy positions of the vineyard (sensors deployed at 45º with the horizontal): at the top of the plants, with sensors facing southwest and northeast (Top-SW and Top-NE), and at the grape bunches height, with sensors facing southwest and northeast (Bottom-SW and Bottom-NE). No significant difference was observed between the top (1.6 m) and the bottom (1.0 m) of the canopy and also between the southwest and northeast face of the plants. The relationship between standard LWD over turfgrass and crop LWD in different positions of the grape canopy showed a define correlation, with R² ranging from 0.86 to 0.89 for all period, from 0.72 to 0.77 for days without rain, and from 0.89 to 0.91 for days with rain.