Energy substitutability in transition agriculture: estimates and implications for Hungary

Subsidised energy prices in pre-transition Hungary had led to excessive energy intensity in the agricultural sector. Transition has resulted in steep input price increases. In this study, Allen and Morishima elasticities of substitution are estimated to study the effects of these price changes on energy use, chemical input use, capital formation and employment. Panel data methods, Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) and instrument exogeneity tests are used to specify and estimate technology and substitution elasticities. Results indicate that indirect price policy may be effective in controlling energy consumption. The sustained increases in energy and chemical input prices have worked together to restrict energy and chemical input use, and the substitutability between energy, capital and labour has prevented the capital shrinkage and agricultural unemployment situations from being worse. The Hungarian push towards lower energy intensity may be best pursued through sustained energy price increases rather than capital subsidies. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of beverage alcohol taxes and prices on drinking: a meta-analysis of 1003 estimates from 112 studies

Aims: We conducted a systematic review of studies examining relationships between measures of beverage alcohol tax or price levels and alcohol sales or self-reported drinking. A total of 112 studies of alcohol tax or price effects were found, containing 1003 estimates of the tax/price–consumption relationship. Design: Studies included analyses of alternative outcome measures, varying subgroups of the population, several statistical models, and using different units of analysis. Multiple estimates were coded from each study, along with numerous study characteristics. Using reported estimates, standard errors, t-ratios, sample sizes and other statistics, we calculated the partial correlation for the relationship between alcohol price or tax and sales or drinking measures for each major model or subgroup reported within each study. Random-effects models were used to combine studies for inverse variance weighted overall estimates of the magnitude and significance of the relationship between alcohol tax/price and drinking. Findings: Simple means of reported elasticities are -0.46 for beer, -0.69 for wine and -0.80 for spirits. Meta-analytical results document the highly significant relationships (P < 0.001) between alcohol tax or price measures and indices of sales or consumption of alcohol (aggregate-level r = -0.17 for beer, -0.30 for wine, -0.29 for spirits and -0.44 for total alcohol). Price/tax also affects heavy drinking significantly (mean reported elasticity = -0.28, individual-level r = -0.01, P < 0.01), but the magnitude of effect is smaller than effects on overall drinking. Conclusions: A large literature establishes that beverage alcohol prices and taxes are related inversely to drinking. Effects are large compared to other prevention policies and programs. Public policies that raise prices of alcohol are an effective means to reduce drinking.

The elasticity of demand is about occupancy, not prices: building European demand curves based on occupancy elasticity

The peak congestion of the European grid may create significant impacts on system costs because of the need for higher marginal cost generation, higher cost system balancing and increasing grid reinforcement investment. The use of time of use rates, incentives, real time pricing and other programmes, usually defined as Demand Side Management (DSM), could bring about significant reductions in prices, limit carbon emissions from dirty power plants, and improve the integration of renewable sources of energy. Unlike previous studies on elasticity of residential electricity demand under flat tariffs, the aim of this study is not to investigate the known relatively inelastic relationship between demand and prices. Rather, the aim is to assess how occupancy levels vary in different European countries. This reflects the reality of demand loads, which are predominantly determined by the timing of human activities (e.g. travelling to work, taking children to school) rather than prices. To this end, two types of occupancy elasticity are estimated: baseline occupancy elasticity and peak occupancy elasticity. These represent the intrinsic elasticity associated with human activities of single residential end-users in 15 European countries. This study makes use of occupancy time-series data from the Harmonised European Time Use Survey database to build European occupancy curves; identify peak occupancy periods; draw time use demand curves for video and TV watching activity; and estimate national occupancy elasticity levels of single-occupant households. Findings on occupancy elasticities provide an indication of possible DSM strategies based on occupancy levels and not prices.

Impact of income on nutrient intakes: implications for undernourishment and obesity

The relationship between income and nutrient intake is explored. Nonparametric, panel, and quantile regressions are used. Engle curves for calories, fat, and protein are approximately linear in logs with carbohydrate intakes exhibiting diminishing elasticities as incomes increase. Elasticities range from 0.10 to 0.25, with fat having the highest elasticities. Countries in higher quantiles have lower elasticities than those in lower quantiles. Results predict significant cumulative increases in calorie consumption which are increasingly composed of fats. Though policies aimed at poverty alleviation and economic growth may assuage hunger and malnutrition, they may also exacerbate problems associated with obesity.

Sustainable agricultural intensification or Jevons paradox? The role of public governance in tropical South America

The process of global deforestation calls for urgent attention, particularly in South America where deforestation rates have failed to decline over the past 20 years. The main direct cause of deforestation is land conversion to agriculture. We combine data from the FAO and the World Bank for six tropical Southern American countries over the period 1970–2006, estimate a panel data model accounting for various determinants of agricultural land expansion and derive elasticities to quantify the effect of the different independent variables. We investigate whether agricultural intensification, in conjunction with governance factors, has been promoting agricultural expansion, leading to a ‘‘Jevons paradox’’. The paradox occurs if an increase in the productivity of one factor (here agricultural land) leads to its increased, rather than decreased, utilization. We find that for high values of our governance indicators a Jevons paradox exists even for moderate levels of agricultural productivity, leading to an overall expansion of agricultural area. Agricultural expansion is also positively related to the level of service on external debt and population growth, while its association with agricultural exports is only moderate. Finally, we find no evidence of an environmental Kuznets curve, as agricultural area is ultimately positively correlated to per-capita income levels.

Simulating the impact on health of internalising the cost of carbon in food prices combined with a tax on sugar-sweetened beverages

Rising greenhouse gas emissions (GHGEs) have implications for health and up to 30 % of emissions globally are thought to arise from agriculture. Synergies exist between diets low in GHGEs and health however some foods have the opposite relationship, such as sugar production being a relatively low source of GHGEs. In order to address this and to further characterise a healthy sustainable diet, we model the effect on UK non-communicable disease mortality and GHGEs of internalising the social cost of carbon into the price of food alongside a 20 % tax on sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs). Developing previously published work, we simulate four tax scenarios: (A) a GHGEs tax of £2.86/tonne of CO2 equivalents (tCO2e)/100 g product on all products with emissions greater than the mean across all food groups (0.36 kgCO2e/100 g); (B) scenario A but with subsidies on foods with emissions lower than 0.36 kgCO2e/100 g such that the effect is revenue neutral; (C) scenario A but with a 20 % sales tax on SSBs; (D) scenario B but with a 20 % sales tax on SSBs. An almost ideal demand system is used to estimate price elasticities and a comparative risk assessment model is used to estimate changes to non-communicable disease mortality. We estimate that scenario A would lead to 300 deaths delayed or averted, 18,900 ktCO2e fewer GHGEs, and £3.0 billion tax revenue; scenario B, 90 deaths delayed or averted and 17,100 ktCO2e fewer GHGEs; scenario C, 1,200 deaths delayed or averted, 18,500 ktCO2e fewer GHGEs, and £3.4 billion revenue; and scenario D, 2,000 deaths delayed or averted and 16,500 ktCO2e fewer GHGEs. Deaths averted are mainly due to increased fibre and reduced fat consumption; a SSB tax reduces SSB and sugar consumption. Incorporating the social cost of carbon into the price of food has the potential to improve health, reduce GHGEs, and raise revenue. The simple addition of a tax on SSBs can mitigate negative health consequences arising from sugar being low in GHGEs. Further conflicts remain, including increased consumption of unhealthy foods such as cakes and nutrients such as salt.

Applicatiion of Almost ideal demand system for a pharmaceutical

This thesis is an application of the Almost Ideal Demand System approach of Deaton and Muellbauer,1980, for a particular pharmaceutical, Citalopram, in which GORMAN´s (1971) multi-stage budgeting approach is applied basically since it is one of the most useful approach in estimating demand for differentiated products. Citalopram is an antidepressant drug that is used in the treatment of major depression. As for most other pharmaceuticals whose the patent has expired, there exist branded and generic versions of Citalopram. This paper is aimed to define its demand system with two stage models for the branded version and five generic versions, and to show whether generic versions are able to compete with the branded version. I calculated the own price elasticities, and it made me possible to compare and make a conclusion about the consumers’ choices over the brand and generic drugs. Even though the models need for being developed with some additional variables, estimation results of models and uncompensated price elasticities indicated that the branded version has still power in the market, and generics are able to compete with lower prices. One important point that has to be taken into consideration is that the Swedish pharmaceutical market faced a reform on October 1, 2002, that aims to make consumer better informed about the price and decrease the overall expenditures for pharmaceuticals. Since there were not significantly enough generic sales to take into calculation before the reform, my paper covers sales after the reform.

The impact of price changes on volume sales of alcoholic beverages in Sweden, 2006-2013

We evaluate whether price elasticities on registered alcohol have changed in the last ten years in Sweden, in particular with regard to the investigation by Asplund et al (2007). We also investigate the fiscal effects of such changes. According to our estimates, price elasticities have increased, and these increases may have substantial effects on estimated changes in tax revenues when commodity tax rates are changed. In particular, commodity tax rates on spirits may have reached “Laffer territory” where tax increases may actually lower tax revenues.

Time-series properties and empirical evidence of growth and infraestructure: revised version

After more than forty years studying growth, there are two classes of growth models that have emerged: exogenous and endogenous growth models. Since both try to mimic the same set of long-run stylized facts, they are observationally equivalent in some respects. Our goals in this paper are twofold First, we discuss the time-series properties of growth models in a way that is useful for assessing their fit to the data. Second, we investigate whether these two models successfully conforms to U.S. post-war data. We use cointegration techniques to estimate and test long-run capital elasticities, exogeneity tests to investigate the exogeneity status of TFP, and Granger-causality tests to examine temporal precedence of TFP with respect to infrastructure expenditures. The empirical evidence is robust in confirming the existence of a unity long-run capital elasticity. The analysis of TFP reveals that it is not weakly exogenous in the exogenous growth model Granger-causality test results show unequivocally that there is no evidence that TFP for both models precede infrastructure expenditures not being preceded by it. On the contrary, we find some evidence that infras- tructure investment precedes TFP. Our estimated impact of infrastructure on TFP lay rougbly in the interval (0.19, 0.27).

City sizes and industry concentration

In a general equilibrium model of trade under transportation costs between two cities we show how the relative population sizes are simultaneously detemined with the degree of geographic concentration of industries characterized by different elasticities of scale of production. The effect on city size of the presence of nontraded goods is also analyzed.

Dois exercícios de política monetária e fiscal com atuação ótima do Banco Central

O objetivo da tese é analisar questões relativas à coordenação entre as políticas monetária e fiscal no Brasil após a adoção do regime de metas de inflação. Utiliza-se de um modelo de metas de inflação para uma economia pequena e aberta para a incorporação um bloco de equações que descrevem a dinâmica das variáveis fiscais. Tendo por base os conceitos de Leeper (1991), ambas as entidades, Banco Central e Tesouro Nacional, podem agir de forma ativa ou passiva, e será este comportamento estratégico que determinará a eficiência da política monetária. Foram estimados os parâmetros que calibram o modelo e feitas as simulações para alguns dos choques que abalaram a economia brasileira nos últimos anos. Os resultados mostraram que nos arranjos em que a autoridade fiscal reage a aumentos de dívida pública com alterações no superávit primário, a trajetória de ajuste das variáveis frente a choques tende a ser, na maioria dos casos, menos volátil propiciando uma atuação mais eficiente do Banco Central. Nestes arranjos, o Banco Central não precisa tomar para si funções que são inerentes ao Tesouro. Também são analisadas as variações no comportamento do Banco Central e do Tesouro Nacional em função de diferentes composições da dívida pública. Os resultados mostram que a estrutura do endividamento público será benéfica, ou não, à condução das políticas monetária e fiscal, dependendo do tipo de choque enfrentado. O primeiro capítulo, introdutório, procura contextualizar o regime de metas de inflação brasileiro e descrever, sucintamente, a evolução da economia brasileira desde sua implantação. No segundo capítulo são analisados os fundamentos teóricos do regime de metas de inflação, sua origem e principais componentes; em seguida, são apresentados, as regras de política fiscal necessárias à estabilidade de preços e o problema da dominância fiscal no âmbito da economia brasileira. O terceiro capítulo apresenta a incorporação do bloco de equações fiscais no modelo de metas de inflação para economia aberta proposto por Svensson (2000), e as estimações e calibrações dos seus parâmetros para a economia brasileira. O quarto capítulo discute as diferentes formas de coordenação entre as autoridades monetária e fiscal e a atuação ótima do Banco Central. O quinto capítulo tem como base a mais eficiente forma de coordenação obtida no capítulo anterior para analisar as mudanças no comportamento da autoridade monetária e fiscal frente a diferentes estruturas de prazos e indexadores da dívida pública que afetam suas elasticidades, juros, inflação e câmbio.

Infraestrutura e produtividade: uma análise empírica

Esta dissertação tem como objetivo analisar a relação entre infra-estrutura e produtividade total dos fatores (PTF) no Brasil e em outros países da América Latina ¿ Argentina, Chile e México. Primeiramente, foi estimado o impacto da relação capital público-privado sobre a produtividade brasileira. Para tanto, utilizou-se um VECM de maneira a investigar a interação entre essas variáveis tanto no longo prazo como no curto (médio). De fato, comprovou-se que essa relação de complementaridade (capital público-privado) ajuda a explicar a trajetória da PTF de 1950 a 2000. Além disso, a análise de curto (médio) prazo indicou que choques (positivos) nesta relação têm um impacto significativo sobre a PTF, mas o contrário não ocorre. Posteriormente, foi testada a hipótese de cointegração entre as medidas físicas de estoques de infra-estrutura (energia elétrica, rodovias e telefonia) e PTF para os países mencionados, através de duas metodologias ¿ procedimento de Johansen e teste de Saikkonen e Lütkepohl (S&L). As elasticidades estimadas sugerem que os setores de energia e rodovias têm uma influência positiva sobre a PTF, portanto, sobre o crescimento econômico de longo prazo. O setor de telefonia não apresentou resultados robustos de cointegração com a produtividade, o que pode indicar um efeito menos expressivo deste setor sobre o crescimento econômico.

Avaliação da simulação de efeitos unilaterais de concentrações horizontais: uma aplicação do modelo PC-AIDS

É consenso na análise antitruste que o ato de concentração de empresas com participação significativa deve sofrer averiguações quanto a sua aprovação em decorrência dos efeitos prejudiciais que pode gerar sobre a concorrência na indústria. Concorrência é sempre desejável por favorecer melhores níveis de bem-estar econômico. À luz das investigações econômicas que os sistemas de defesa da concorrência realizam, este trabalho analisa as mensurações da simulação de efeitos unilaterais de concentrações horizontais. As avaliações realizadas testam a utilização do modelo PC-AIDS (Proportionaly Calibrated AIDS), de Epstein e Rubinfeld (2002). Dentre algumas conclusões que se extraem do uso do modelo temos que: (i) em mercados com baixa concentração econômica, o modelo avaliado para um intervalo da vizinhança da elasticidade-preço própria estimada, traz mensurações robustas, e (ii) para mercados com alta concentração econômica uma atenção maior deve ser dada à correspondência dos valores calibrados e estimados das elasticidades-preços próprias, para que não ocorra sub ou superestimação dos efeitos unilaterais do ato de concentração. Esse resultado é avaliado no caso Nestlé/Garoto.

Análise do mecanismo de transmissão dos preços internacionais de commodities agrícolas sobre o comportamento da taxa de câmbio real no Brasil

This paper examined the transmission mechanism of international prices of agricultural commodities into the real exchange rate in Brazil for the period from January 2000 to February 2010. We used time series models (ARIMA Model, Transfer Model, Intervention Analysis, Johansen Cointegration Test) in determination of the short and long run elasticities. Transfer Function Model results show that changes in international prices of agricultural commodities are transmitted to the real exchange rate in Brazil in the short run, however, that transmission is less than unity, thus configuring the inelastic relationship. Johansen cointegration tests show that these variables are not co-integrated, no longer converge to the long-run equilibrium. These results are in agreement Cashim et al. (2004), which also found no long run relationship between real exchange rate and commodity prices in the case of Brazil. These results show that monetary shocks have greater weight on changes of the real exchange rate than real shocks.

Estimação de parâmetros de demanda e oferta em mercados de produtos diferenciados

Este trabalho tem por objetivo discutir detalhadamente o desenvolvimento de métodos de estimação de parâmetros de demanda e oferta em mercados de produtos diferenciados. As técnicas apresentadas consideram explicitamente a endogeneidade dos preços e podem ser aplicadas a diferentes tipos de indústrias. O sistema de demandas de mercado é derivado a partir de modelos de escolha discreta descrevendo o comportamento do consumidor. Esse sistema é então combinado com hipóteses sobre as funções custo e sobre o comportamento de determinação dos preços por parte das firmas para gerar preços e quantidades de equilíbrio. Os parâmetros a ser estimados são os que determinam os custos marginais das firmas e a distribuição dos gostos dos consumidores. Essa distribuição determina elasticidades e estas, combinadas com o custo marginal e com uma hipótese de equilíbrio de Nash na determinação de preços, determinam preços de equilíbrio. Essas elasticidades e parâmetros de custo desempenham um papel central em análises de questões descritivas e de mudanças no ambiente do mercado sob análise.