El Niño Southern Oscillation and Ross River Virus Outbreaks in Australia

Various authors have suggested a general predictive value of climatic indices of El Nino/Southem Oscillation events as indicators of outbreaks of arbovirus disease, particularly Ross River virus in Australia. By analyzing over 100 years of historical outbreak data on Ross River virus disease, our data indicate that, although high Southern Oscillation Index and La Nina conditions are potentially important predictors for the Murray Darling River region, this is not the case for the other four ecological zones in Australia. Our study, therefore, cautions against overgeneralization and suggests that, since climate and weather exert different influences and have different biological implications for the multiplicity of vectors involved, it is logical that predictors should be heterogeneous.

Southern Hemisphere Summer Mesopause Responses to El Niño-Southern Oscillation

In the Southern Hemisphere (SH) polar region, satellite observations reveal a significant upper-mesosphere cooling and a lower-thermosphere warming during warm ENSO events in December. An opposite pattern is observed in the tropical mesopause region. The observed upper-mesosphere cooling agrees with a climate model simulation. Analysis of the simulation suggests that enhanced planetary wave (PW) dissipation in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) high-latitude stratosphere during El Nino strengthens the Brewer-Dobson circulation and cools the equatorial stratosphere. This increases the magnitude of the SH stratosphere meridional temperature gradient and thus causes the anomalous stratospheric easterly zonal wind and early breakdown of the SH stratospheric polar vortex. The resulting perturbation to gravity wave (GW) filtering causes anomalous SH mesospheric eastward GW forcing and polar upwelling and cooling. In addition, constructive inference of ENSO and quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) could lead to stronger stratospheric easterly zonal wind anomalies at the SH high latitudes in November and December and early breakdown of the SH stratospheric polar vortex during warm ENSO events in the easterly QBO phase (defined by the equatorial zonal wind at similar to 25 hPa). This would in turn cause much more SH mesospheric eastward GW forcing and much colder polar temperatures, and hence it would induce an early onset time of SH summer polar mesospheric clouds (PMCs). The opposite mechanism occurs during cold ENSO events in the westerly QBO phase. This implies that ENSO together with QBO could significantly modulate the breakdown time of SH stratospheric polar vortex and the onset time of SH PMC.

Hydroclimatic influence of large-scale circulation on the variability of reservoir inflow

In this study, the nature of basin-scale hydroclimatic association for Indian subcontinent is investigated. It is found that, the large-scale circulation information from Indian Ocean is also equally important in addition to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), owing to the geographical location of Indian subcontinent. The hydroclimatic association of the variation of monsoon inflow into the Hirakud reservoir in India is investigated using ENSO and EQUatorial INdian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO, the atmospheric part of Indian Ocean Dipole mode) as the large-scale circulation information from tropical Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean regions respectively. Individual associations of ENSO & EQUINOO indices with inflow into Hirakud reservoir are also assessed and found to be weak. However, the association of inflows into Hirakud reservoir with the composite index (CI) of ENSO and EQUINOO is quite strong. Thus, the large-scale circulation information from Indian Ocean is also important apart form the ENSO. The potential of the combined information of ENSO and EQUINOO for predicting the inflows during monsoon is also investigated with promising results. The results of this study will be helpful to water resources managers due to fact that the nature of monsoon inflow is becoming available as an early prediction.

The reliability of supply of feed grains in the northern region

Reliability of supply of feed grain has become a high priority issue for industry in the northern region. Expansion by major intensive livestock and industrial users of grain, combined with high inter-annual variability in seasonal conditions, has generated concern in the industry about reliability of supply. This paper reports on a modelling study undertaken to analyse the reliability of supply of feed grain in the northern region. Feed grain demand was calculated for major industries (cattle feedlots, pigs, poultry, dairy) based on their current size and rate of grain usage. Current demand was estimated to be 2.8Mt. With the development of new industrial users (ethanol) and by projecting the current growth rate of the various intensive livestock industries, it was estimated that demand would grow to 3.6Mt in three years time. Feed grain supply was estimated using shire scale yield prediction models for wheat and sorghum that had been calibrated against recent ABS production data. Other crops that contribute to a lesser extent to the total feed grain pool (barley, maize) were included by considering their production relative to the major winter and summer grains, with estimates based on available production records. This modelling approach allowed simulation of a 101-year time series of yield that showed the extent of the impact of inter-annual climate variability on yield levels. Production estimates were developed from this yield time series by including planted crop area. Area planted data were obtained from ABS and ABARE records. Total production amounts were adjusted to allow for any export and end uses that were not feed grain (flour, malt etc). The median feed grain supply for an average area planted was about 3.1Mt, but this varied greatly from year to year depending on seasonal conditions and area planted. These estimates indicated that supply would not meet current demand in about 30% of years if a median area crop were planted. Two thirds of the years with a supply shortfall were El Nino years. This proportion of years was halved (i.e. 15%) if the area planted increased to that associated with the best 10% of years. Should demand grow as projected in this study, there would be few years where it could be met if a median crop area was planted. With area planted similar to the best 10% of years, there would still be a shortfall in nearly 50% of all years (and 80% of El Nino years). The implications of these results on supply/demand and risk management and investment in research and development are briefly discussed.

Photosynthetic responses of seven tropical seagrasses to elevated seawater temperature

This study uses chlorophyll a fluorescence to examine the effect of environmentally relevant (1-4 h) exposures of thermal stress (35-45 [deg]C) on seagrass photosynthetic yield in seven tropical species of seagrasses. Acute response of each tropical seagrass species to thermal stress was characterised, and the capacity of each species to tolerate and recover from thermal stress was assessed. Two fundamental characteristics of heat stress were observed. The first effect was a decrease in photosynthetic yield (Fv / Fm) characterised by reductions in F and Fm'. The dramatic decline in Fv / Fm ratio, due to chronic inhibition of photosynthesis, indicates an intolerance of Halophila ovalis, Zostera capricorni and Syringodium isoetifolium to ecologically relevant exposures of thermal stress and structural alterations to the PhotoSystem II (PSII) reaction centres. The decline in Fm' represents heat-induced photoinhibition related to closure of PSII reaction centres and chloroplast dysfunction. The key finding was that Cymodocea rotundata, Cymodocea serrulata, Halodule uninervis and Thalassia hemprichii were more tolerant to thermal stress than H. ovalis, Z. capricorni and S. isoetifolium. After 3 days of 4 h temperature treatments ranging from 25 to 40 [deg]C, C. rotundata, C. serrulata and H. uninervis demonstrated a wide tolerance to temperature with no detrimental effect on Fv / Fm' qN or qP responses. These three species are restricted to subtropical and tropical waters and their tolerance to seawater temperatures up to 40 [deg]C is likely to be an adaptive response to high temperatures commonly occurring at low tides and peak solar irradiance. The results of temperature experiments suggest that the photosynthetic condition of all seagrass species tested are likely to suffer irreparable effects from short-term or episodic changes in seawater temperatures as high as 40-45 [deg]C. Acute stress responses of seagrasses to elevated seawater temperatures are consistent with observed reductions in above-ground biomass during a recent El Nino event.

Agricultural intensification, priming for persistence and the emergence of Nipah virus: a lethal bat-borne zoonosis

Emerging zoonoses threaten global health, yet the processes by which they emerge are complex and poorly understood. Nipah virus (NiV) is an important threat owing to its broad host and geographical range, high case fatality, potential for human-to-human transmission and lack of effective prevention or therapies. Here, we investigate the origin of the first identified outbreak of NiV encephalitis in Malaysia and Singapore. We analyse data on livestock production from the index site (a commercial pig farm in Malaysia) prior to and during the outbreak, on Malaysian agricultural production, and from surveys of NiV's wildlife reservoir (flying foxes). Our analyses suggest that repeated introduction of NiV from wildlife changed infection dynamics in pigs. Initial viral introduction produced an explosive epizootic that drove itself to extinction but primed the population for enzootic persistence upon reintroduction of the virus. The resultant within-farm persistence permitted regional spread and increased the number of human infections. This study refutes an earlier hypothesis that anomalous El Nino Southern Oscillation-related climatic conditions drove emergence and suggests that priming for persistence drove the emergence of a novel zoonotic pathogen. Thus, we provide empirical evidence for a causative mechanism previously proposed as a precursor to widespread infection with H5N1 avian influenza and other emerging pathogens.

Historical demography of Lantana camara L. reveals clues about the influence of land use and weather in the management of this widespread invasive species

Weather is a general stochastic influence on the life history of weeds. In contrast, anthropogenic disturbance (e.g. land use) is an important deterministic influence on weed demography. Our aim with this study was to investigate the relative contributions of land use and weather on the demography of Lantana camara (lantana), a weed of agricultural and natural habitats, based on the intensive monitoring of lantana populations under three land uses (viz. farm[pasture], and burnt and grazed forests) in subtropical Australia. Lantana populations were growing vigorously across all land uses (asymptotic population growth rate, lambda > 3). Examination of historical demography using retrospective perturbation analyses showed that weather was a strong influence on lantana demography with the transition from an El Nino (2008-09) to a La Nina (2009-10) year having a strong positive effect on population growth rate. This effect was most marked at the grazed site, and to a lesser extent at the burnt site, with seedling-to-juvenile and juvenile-to-adult transitions contributing most to these effects. This is likely the result of burning and grazing having eliminated/reduced interspecific competition at these sites. Prospective perturbation analyses revealed that lambda was most sensitive to proportionate changes in growth transitions, followed by fecundity and survival transitions. Examination of context-specific patterns in elasticity revealed that growth and fecundity transitions are likely to be the more critical vital rates to reduce lambda in wet years at the burnt and grazed forest sites, compared to the farm/pasture site. Management of lantana may need to limit the transition of juveniles into the adult stages, especially in sites where lantana is free from competition (e.g. in the presence of fire or grazing), and this particularly needs to be achieved in wet years. Collectively, these results shed light on aspects of spatial and temporal variation in the demography of lantana, and offer insights on its context-specific management.

Towards understanding the unusual Indian monsoon in 2009

The Indian summer monsoon season of 2009 commenced with a massive deficit in all-India rainfall of 48% of the average rainfall in June. The all-India rainfall in July was close to the normal but that in August was deficit by 27%. In this paper, we first focus on June 2009, elucidating the special features and attempting to identify the factors that could have led to the large deficit in rainfall. In June 2009, the phase of the two important modes, viz., El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO) was unfavourable. Also, the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean (EEIO) was warmer than in other years and much warmer than the Bay. In almost all the years, the opposite is true, i.e., the Bay is warmer than EEIO in June. It appears that this SST gradient gave an edge to the tropical convergence zone over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean, in competition with the organized convection over the Bay. Thus, convection was not sustained for more than three or four days over the Bay and no northward propagations occurred. We suggest that the reversal of the sea surface temperature (SST) gradient between the Bay of Bengal and EEIO, played a critical role in the rainfall deficit over the Bay and hence the Indian region. We also suggest that suppression of convection over EEIO in association with the El Nino led to a positive phase of EQUINOO in July and hence revival of the monsoon despite the El Nino. It appears that the transition to a negative phase of EQUINOO in August and the associated large deficit in monsoon rainfall can also be attributed to the El Nino.

Convergence feedback and unstable low frequency oscillations in a simple coupled ocean‐atmosphere model

The role of convergence feedback on the stability of a coupled ocean‐atmosphere system is studied using model III of Hirst (1986). It is shown that the unstable coupled mode found by Hirst is greatly modified by the convergence feedback. If the convergence feedback strength exceeds a critical value, several new unstable intraseasonal modes are also introduced. These modes have very weak dependence on the wave number. These results may explain the behaviour of some coupled models and to some extent provide a mechanism for the observed aperiodicity of the El‐Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events.

Indian Ocean Dipole: Processes and impacts

Equatorial Indian Ocean is warmer in the east, has a deeper thermocline and mixed layer, and supports a more convective atmosphere than in the west. During certain years, the eastern Indian Ocean becomes unusually cold, anomalous winds blow from east to west along the equator and southeastward off the coast of Sumatra, thermocline and mixed layer lift up and the atmospheric convection gets suppressed. At the same time, western Indian Ocean becomes warmer and enhances atmospheric convection. This coupled ocean-atmospheric phenomenon in which convection, winds, sea surface temperature (SST) and thermocline take part actively is known as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Propagation of baroclinic Kelvin and Rossby waves excited by anomalous winds, play an important role in the development of SST anomalies associated with the IOD. Since mean thermocline in the Indian Ocean is deep compared to the Pacific, it was believed for a long time that the Indian Ocean is passive and merely responds to the atmospheric forcing. Discovery of the IOD and studies that followed demonstrate that the Indian Ocean can sustain its own intrinsic coupled ocean-atmosphere processes. About 50% percent of the IOD events in the past 100 years have co-occurred with El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the other half independently. Coupled models have been able to reproduce IOD events and process experiments by such models – switching ENSO on and off – support the hypothesis based on observations that IOD events develop either in the presence or absence of ENSO. There is a general consensus among different coupled models as well as analysis of data that IOD events co-occurring during the ENSO are forced by a zonal shift in the descending branch of Walker cell over to the eastern Indian Ocean. Processes that initiate the IOD in the absence of ENSO are not clear, although several studies suggest that anomalies of Hadley circulation are the most probable forcing function. Impact of the IOD is felt in the vicinity of Indian Ocean as well as in remote regions. During IOD events, biological productivity of the eastern Indian Ocean increases and this in turn leads to death of corals over a large area.Moreover, the IOD affects rainfall over the maritime continent, Indian subcontinent, Australia and eastern Africa. The maritime continent and Australia suffer from deficit rainfall whereas India and east Africa receive excess. Despite the successful hindcast of the 2006 IOD by a coupled model, forecasting IOD events and their implications to rainfall variability remains a major challenge as understanding reasons behind an increase in frequency of IOD events in recent decades.

Seasonal prediction of the Indian monsoon

Under the project `Seasonal Prediction of the Indian Monsoon' (SPIM), the prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall by five atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) during 1985-2004 was assessed. The project was a collaborative effort of the coordinators and scientists from the different modelling groups across the country. All the runs were made at the Centre for Development of Advanced Computing (CDAC) at Bangalore on the PARAM Padma supercomputing system. Two sets of simulations were made for this purpose. In the first set, the AGCMs were forced by the observed sea surface temperature (SST) for May-September during 1985-2004. In the second set, runs were made for 1987, 1988, 1994, 1997 and 2002 forced by SST which was obtained by assuming that the April anomalies persist during May-September. The results of the first set of runs show, as expected from earlier studies, that none of the models were able to simulate the correct sign of the anomaly of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall for all the years. However, among the five models, one simulated the correct sign in the largest number of years and the second model showed maximum skill in the simulation of the extremes (i.e. droughts or excess rainfall years). The first set of runs showed some common bias which could arise either from an excessive sensitivity of the models to El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or an inability of the models to simulate the link of the Indian monsoon rainfall to Equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO), or both. Analysis of the second set of runs showed that with a weaker ENSO forcing, some models could simulate the link with EQUINOO, suggesting that the errors in the monsoon simulations with observed SST by these models could be attributed to unrealistically high sensitivity to ENSO.

Interannual variations of Indian summer monsoon in a GCM: External conditions versus internal feedbacks

The potential predictability of the Indian summer monsoon due to slowly varying sea surface temperature (SST) forcing is examined. Factors responsible for limiting the predictability are also investigated. Three multiyear simulations with the R30 version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's climate model are carried out for this purpose, The mean monsoon simulated by this model is realistic including the mean summer precipitation over the Indian continent. The interannual variability of the large-scale component of the monsoon such as the "monsoon shear index" and its teleconnection with Pacific SST is well simulated by the model in a 15-yr integration with observed SST as boundary condition. On regional scales, the skill in simulating the interannual variability of precipitation over the Indian continent by the model is rather modest and its simultaneous correlation with eastern Pacific SST is negative but poor as observed. The poor predictability of precipitation over the Indian region in the model is related to the fact that contribution to the interannual variability over this region due to slow SST variations [El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related] is comparable to those due to regional-scale fluctuations unrelated to ENSO SST. The physical mechanism through which ENSO SST tend to produce reduction in precipitation over the Indian continent is also elucidated. A measure of internal variability of the model summer monsoon is obtained from a 20-yr integration of the same model with fixed annual cycle SST as boundary conditions but with predicted soil moisture and snow cover. A comparison of summer monsoon indexes between this run and the observed SST run shows that the internal oscillations can account for a large fraction of the simulated monsoon variability. The regional-scale oscillations in the observed SST run seems to arise from these internal oscillations. It is discovered that most of the interannual internal variability is due to an internal quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of the model atmosphere. Such a QBO is also found in the author's third 18-yr simulation in which fixed annual cycle of SST as well as soil moisture and snow cover are prescribed. This shows that the model QBO is not due to land-surface-atmosphere interaction. It is proposed that the model QBO arises due to an interaction between nonlinear intraseasonal oscillations and the annual cycle. Spatial structure of the QBO and its role in limiting the predictability of the Indian summer monsoon is discussed.

Monsoon Regimes and Processes in CCSM4. Part I: The Asian-Australian Monsoon

The simulation characteristics of the Asian-Australian monsoon are documented for the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4). This is the first part of a two part series examining monsoon regimes in the global tropics in the CCSM4. Comparisons are made to an Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulation of the atmospheric component in CCSM4 Community Atmosphere Model, version 4, (CAM4)] to deduce differences in the monsoon simulations run with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and with ocean-atmosphere coupling. These simulations are also compared to a previous version of the model (CCSM3) to evaluate progress. In general, monsoon rainfall is too heavy in the uncoupled AMIP run with CAM4, and monsoon rainfall amounts are generally better simulated with ocean coupling in CCSM4. Most aspects of the Asian-Australian monsoon simulations are improved in CCSM4 compared to CCSM3. There is a reduction of the systematic error of rainfall over the tropical Indian Ocean for the South Asian monsoon, and well-simulated connections between SSTs in the Bay of Bengal and regional South Asian monsoon precipitation. The pattern of rainfall in the Australian monsoon is closer to observations in part because of contributions from the improvements of the Indonesian Throughflow and diapycnal diffusion in CCSM4. Intraseasonal variability of the Asian-Australian monsoon is much improved in CCSM4 compared to CCSM3 both in terms of eastward and northward propagation characteristics, though it is still somewhat weaker than observed. An improved simulation of El Nino in CCSM4 contributes to more realistic connections between the Asian-Australian monsoon and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), though there is considerable decadal and century time scale variability of the strength of the monsoon-ENSO connection.

Predicting the extremes of Indian summer monsoon rainfall with coupled ocean-atmosphere models

An analysis of the retrospective predictions by seven coupled ocean atmosphere models from major forecasting centres of Europe and USA, aimed at assessing their ability in predicting the interannual variation of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR), particularly the extremes (i.e. droughts and excess rainfall seasons) is presented in this article. On the whole, the skill in prediction of extremes is not bad since most of the models are able to predict the sign of the ISMR anomaly for a majority of the extremes. There is a remarkable coherence between the models in successes and failures of the predictions, with all the models generating loud false alarms for the normal monsoon season of 1997 and the excess monsoon season of 1983. It is well known that the El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO) play an important role in the interannual variation of ISMR and particularly the extremes. The prediction of the phases of these modes and their link with the monsoon has also been assessed. It is found that models are able to simulate ENSO-monsoon link realistically, whereas the EQUINOO-ISMR link is simulated realistically by only one model the ECMWF model. Furthermore, it is found that in most models this link is opposite to the observed, with the predicted ISMR being negatively (instead of positively) correlated with the rainfall over the western equatorial Indian Ocean and positively (instead of negatively) correlated with the rainfall over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. Analysis of the seasons for which the predictions of almost all the models have large errors has suggested the facets of ENSO and EQUINOO and the links with the monsoon that need to be improved for improving monsoon predictions by these models.

Stable atmospheric methane in the 2000s: key-role of emissions from natural wetlands

Two atmospheric inversions (one fine-resolved and one process-discriminating) and a process-based model for land surface exchanges are brought together to analyse the variations of methane emissions from 1990 to 2009. A focus is put on the role of natural wetlands and on the years 2000-2006, a period of stable atmospheric concentrations. From 1990 to 2000, the top-down and bottom-up visions agree on the time-phasing of global total and wetland emission anomalies. The process-discriminating inversion indicates that wetlands dominate the time-variability of methane emissions (90% of the total variability). The contribution of tropical wetlands to the anomalies is found to be large, especially during the post-Pinatubo years (global negative anomalies with minima between -41 and -19 Tg yr(-1) in 1992) and during the alternate 1997-1998 El-Nino/1998-1999 La-Nina (maximal anomalies in tropical regions between +16 and +22 Tg yr(-1) for the inversions and anomalies due to tropical wetlands between +12 and +17 Tg yr(-1) for the process-based model). Between 2000 and 2006, during the stagnation of methane concentrations in the atmosphere, the top-down and bottom-up approaches agree on the fact that South America is the main region contributing to anomalies in natural wetland emissions, but they disagree on the sign and magnitude of the flux trend in the Amazon basin. A negative trend (-3.9 +/- 1.3 Tg yr(-1)) is inferred by the process-discriminating inversion whereas a positive trend (+1.3 +/- 0.3 Tg yr(-1)) is found by the process model. Although processed-based models have their own caveats and may not take into account all processes, the positive trend found by the B-U approach is considered more likely because it is a robust feature of the process-based model, consistent with analysed precipitations and the satellite-derived extent of inundated areas. On the contrary, the surface-data based inversions lack constraints for South America. This result suggests the need for a re-interpretation of the large increase found in anthropogenic methane inventories after 2000.