Métodos de máxima verosimilitud en ecología y su aplicación en modelos de vecindad

Los métodos de máxima verosimilitud (MMV) ofrecen un marco alternativo a la estadística frecuentista convencional, alejándose del uso del p-valor para el rechazo de una única hipótesis nula y optando por el uso de las verosimilitudes para evaluar el grado de apoyo en los datos a un conjunto de hipótesis alternativas (o modelos) de interés para el investigador. Estos métodos han sido ampliamente aplicados en ecología en el marco de los modelos de vecindad. Dichos modelos usan una aproximación espacialmente explícita para describir procesos demográficos de plantas o procesos ecosistémicos en función de los atributos de los individuos vecinos. Se trata por tanto de modelos fenomenológicos cuya principal utilidad radica en funcionar como herramientas de síntesis de los múltiples mecanismos por los que las especies pueden interactuar e influenciar su entorno, proporcionando una medida del efecto per cápita de individuos de distintas características (ej. tamaño, especie, rasgos fisiológicos) sobre los procesos de interés. La gran ventaja de aplicar los MMV en el marco de los modelos de vecindad es que permite ajustar y comparar múltiples modelos que usen distintos atributos de los vecinos y/o formas funcionales para seleccionar aquel con mayor soporte empírico. De esta manera, cada modelo funcionará como un “experimento virtual” para responder preguntas relacionadas con la magnitud y extensión espacial de los efectos de distintas especies coexistentes, y extraer conclusiones sobre posibles implicaciones para el funcionamiento de comunidades y ecosistemas. Este trabajo sintetiza las técnicas de implementación de los MMV y los modelos de vecindad en ecología terrestre, resumiendo su uso hasta la fecha y destacando nuevas líneas de aplicación.

Enriching plant diversity in grasslands by large-scale experimental sward disturbance and seed addition along gradients of land-use intensity

Aims The relationship between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning is among the most active areas of ecological research. Furthermore, enhancing the diversity of degraded ecosystems is a major goal in applied restoration ecology. In grasslands, many species may be locally absent due to dispersal or microsite limitation and may therefore profit from mechanical disturbance of the resident vegetation. We established a seed addition and disturbance experiment across several grassland sites of different land use to test whether plant diversity can be increased in these grasslands. Additionally, the experiment will allow us testing the consequences of increased plant diversity for ecosystem processes and for the diversity of other taxa in real-world ecosystems. Here we present details of the experimental design and report results from the first vegetation survey one year after disturbance and seed addition. Moreover, we tested whether the effects of seed addition and disturbance varied among grassland depending on their land use or pre-disturbance plant diversity. Methods A full-factorial experiment was installed in 73 grasslands in three regions across Germany. Grasslands were under regular agricultural use, but varied in the type and the intensity of management, thereby representing the range of management typical for large parts of Central Europe. The disturbance treatment consisted of disturbing the top 10 cm of the sward using a rotavator or rotary harrow. Seed addition consisted of sowing a high-diversity seed mixture of regional plant species. These species were all regionally present, but often locally absent, depending on the resident vegetation composition and richness of each grassland. Important findings One year after sward disturbance it had significantly increased cover of bare soil, seedling species richness and numbers of seedlings. Seed addition had increased plant species richness, but only in combination with sward disturbance. The increase in species richness, when both seed addition and disturbance was applied, was higher at high land-use intensity and low resident diversity. Thus, we show that at least the early recruitment of many species is possible also at high land-use intensity, indicating the potential to restore and enhance biodiversity of species-poor agricultural grasslands. Our newly established experiment provides a unique platform for broad-scale research on the land-use dependence of future trajectories of vegetation diversity and composition and their effects on ecosystem functioning.

High-resolution dynamical downscaling products for the North Slope of Alaska and surrounding areas, links to model result files

Climatic changes are most pronounced in northern high latitude regions. Yet, there is a paucity of observational data, both spatially and temporally, such that regional-scale dynamics are not fully captured, limiting our ability to make reliable projections. In this study, a group of dynamical downscaling products were created for the period 1950 to 2100 to better understand climate change and its impacts on hydrology, permafrost, and ecosystems at a resolution suitable for northern Alaska. An ERA-interim reanalysis dataset and the Community Earth System Model (CESM) served as the forcing mechanisms in this dynamical downscaling framework, and the Weather Research & Forecast (WRF) model, embedded with an optimization for the Arctic (Polar WRF), served as the Regional Climate Model (RCM). This downscaled output consists of multiple climatic variables (precipitation, temperature, wind speed, dew point temperature, and surface air pressure) for a 10 km grid spacing at three-hour intervals. The modeling products were evaluated and calibrated using a bias-correction approach. The ERA-interim forced WRF (ERA-WRF) produced reasonable climatic variables as a result, yielding a more closely correlated temperature field than precipitation field when long-term monthly climatology was compared with its forcing and observational data. A linear scaling method then further corrected the bias, based on ERA-interim monthly climatology, and bias-corrected ERA-WRF fields were applied as a reference for calibration of both the historical and the projected CESM forced WRF (CESM-WRF) products. Biases, such as, a cold temperature bias during summer and a warm temperature bias during winter as well as a wet bias for annual precipitation that CESM holds over northern Alaska persisted in CESM-WRF runs. The linear scaling of CESM-WRF eventually produced high-resolution downscaling products for the Alaskan North Slope for hydrological and ecological research, together with the calibrated ERA-WRF run, and its capability extends far beyond that. Other climatic research has been proposed, including exploration of historical and projected climatic extreme events and their possible connections to low-frequency sea-atmospheric oscillations, as well as near-surface permafrost degradation and ice regime shifts of lakes. These dynamically downscaled, bias corrected climatic datasets provide improved spatial and temporal resolution data necessary for ongoing modeling efforts in northern Alaska focused on reconstructing and projecting hydrologic changes, ecosystem processes and responses, and permafrost thermal regimes. The dynamical downscaling methods presented in this study can also be used to create more suitable model input datasets for other sub-regions of the Arctic.

Controls on herbaceous litter decomposition in the estuarine ecotones of the Florida Everglades

The effects of nutrient availability and litter quality on litter decomposition were measured in two oligotrophic phosphorus (P)-limited Florida Everglades esturies, United States. The two estuaries differ, in that one (Shark River estuary) is directly connected to the Gulf of Mexico and receives marine P, while the other (Taylor Slough estuary) does not receive marine P because Florida Bay separates it from the Gulf of Mexico. Decomposition of three macrophytes.Cladium jamaicense, Eleochaaris spp., andJuncus roemerianus, was studied using a litter bag technique over 18 mo. Litter was exposed to three treatments: soil surface+macroinvertebrates (=macro), soil surface without macroinvertebrates (=wet), and above the soil and water (=aerial). The third treatment replicated the decomposition of standing dead leaves. Decomposition rates showed that litter exposed to the wet and macro treatments decomposed significantly faster than the aerial treatment, where atmospheric deposition was the only source of nutrients. Macroinvertebrates had no influence on litter decompostion rates.C. jamaicense decomposed faster at sites, with higher P, andEleocharis spp. decomposed significantly faster at sites with higher nitrogen (N). Initial tissue C:N and C:P molar ratios revealed that the nutrient quality of litter of bothEleocharis spp. andJ. roemerianus was higher thanC. jamaicense, but onlyEleocharis spp. decomposed faster thanC. jamaicense. C. jamaicense litter tended to immobilize P, whileEleocharis spp. litter showed net remineralization of N and P. A comparison with other estuarine and wetland systems revealed the dependence of litter decomposition on nutrient availability and litter quality. The results from this experiment suggest that Everglades restoration may have an important effect on key ecosystem processes in the estuarine ecotone of this landscape.

Density-Dependent Effects of Coral Reef Restoration on Herbivory and Community Interactions

Coral reefs are among the most productive ecosystems in the world. Yet, with their recent declines due to disease, climate change, and overfishing, restoration of these habitats is one of the main concerns for ecologists, resource managers, and government organizations. Coral reef restoration aims to promote key ecosystem processes to shift these habitats to their historical state of high coral cover, but few studies have focused on effective ways to promote resilience. In addition, little is known about the impact of restoration on the fish communities. The aim of this study is to understand how the community of herbivorous fishes is affected by the density of coral outplants inside a special protection area located in the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary. Grazing rates, number of visits and time spent foraging were compared using video footage of sites previously devoid of corals, and six months after coral restorations had occurred. Coral transplantations did not appear to attract herbivores nor increase grazing rates of fishes. Instead Sparisoma and Acanthurus fishes appear to respond to changes in the environment by modifying their grazing behavior. However, there was an observed increase in visits by Acanthurus species after transplantation for all the sites sampled within the reef. These fishes seemed to prefer low coral cover sites for grazing. This study highlights the importance of examining coral restorations impacts at the community level. Understanding how restoration influences herbivores and other guilds of reef fishes will allow individuals to not only determine if these habitats are returning to their “original” state, but provide more information on the ways these systems cope with changes in the environment.

Spatial and temporal stability of soil microbial properties in the Jena Experiment (Germany) from 2003-2014

The study was carried out on the main plots of a large grassland biodiversity experiment (the Jena Experiment). In the main experiment, 82 grassland plots of 20 x 20 m were established from a pool of 60 species belonging to four functional groups (grasses, legumes, tall and small herbs). In May 2002, varying numbers of plant species from this species pool were sown into the plots to create a gradient of plant species richness (1, 2, 4, 8, 16 and 60 species) and functional richness (1, 2, 3, 4 functional groups). Plots were maintained by bi-annual weeding and mowing. We tracked soil microbial basal respiration (BR; µlO2/g dry soil/h) and biomass carbon (Cmic; µgC/g dry soil) over a time period of 12 years (2003-2014) and examined the role of plant diversity and plant functional group composition for the spatial and temporal stability (calculated as mean/SD) of soil microbial properties (basal respiration and biomass) in bulk-soil. Our results highlight the importance of plant functional group composition for the spatial and temporal stability of soil microbial properties, and hence for microbially-driven ecosystem processes, such as decomposition and element cycling, in temperate semi-natural grassland.

Effects of introduced moose (Alces alces) on vegetation composition, nutrient dynamics, and decomposition rates in boreal forest ecosystems in Newfoundland, Canada

Globally, consumers affect ecosystem processes including nutrient dynamics. Herbivores have been known to slow nutrient flow in boreal forest ecosystems. I examined the effects of introduced moose on disturbed forests of Newfoundland, Canada by conducting a field experiment during August - November 2014 in 20 paired moose exclosure-control plots. I tested whether moose browsing directly and indirectly affected forests by measuring plant species composition, litter quality and quantity, soil quality, and decomposition rates in areas moose exclosure-control plots. I analyzed moose effects using linear mixed effects models and found evidence indicating that moose reduce plant height and litter biomass affecting the availability of carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus. However, plant diversity, soil quality, and litter decomposition did not differ between moose exclosures and controls. Moose in Newfoundland directly influence plant regeneration and litter biomass while indirect effects on soil ecosystems may be limited by time, disturbance, and climate.

Hide, survive and hitch a ride, the dispersal of Antarctic krill into the nursery habitats

Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba), a key species of Southern Ocean food webs plays a central role in ecosystem processes, community dynamics of apex predators and as a commercial fishery target. A decline in krill abundance during the late 20th century in the SW Atlantic sector has been linked to a concomitant decrease in sea ice, based on the hypothesis that sea ice acts as a feeding ground for overwintering larvae. However, evidence supporting this hypothesis has been scarce due to logistical challenges of collecting data in austral winter. Here we report on a winter study that involved diver observations of larval krill in their under-ice environment, ship-based studies of krill, sea ice physical characteristics, and biophysical model analyses of krill-ocean-ice interactions. We present evidence that complex under-ice topography is vital for larval krill in terms of dispersal and advection into high productive nursery habitats, rather than the provision by the ice environment of food. Further, ongoing changes in sea ice will lead to increases in sea-ice regimes favourable for overwintering larval krill but shifting southwards. This will result in ice-free conditions in the SW Atlantic, which will be conducive for enhancing food supplies due to sufficient light and iron availability, thus enhancing larvae development and growth. However, the associated impact on dispersal and advection may lead to a net shift in krill from the SW Atlantic to regions further east by the eastward flowing ACC and the northern branch of the Weddell Gyre, with profound consequences for the Southern Ocean pelagic ecosystem.

Leaf Traits, Neighbors, and Abiotic Factors: Ways That Context Can Mediate the Impact of Invasive Species on Nitrogen Cycling

Species invasions are more prevalent than ever before. While the addition of a species can dramatically change critical ecosystem processes, factors that mediate the direction and magnitude of those impacts have received less attention. A better understanding of the factors that mediate invasion impacts on ecosystem functioning is needed in order to target which exotic species will be most harmful and which systems are most vulnerable. The role of invasion on nitrogen (N) cycling is particularly important since N cycling controls ecosystem services that provision human health, e.g. nutrient retention and water quality.

We conducted a meta-analysis and in-depth studies focused on the invasive grass species, Microstegium vimineum, to better understand how (i) plant characteristics, (ii) invader abundance and neighbor identity, and (iii) environmental conditions mediate the impacts of invasion on N pools and fluxes. The results of our global meta-analysis support the concept that invasive species and reference community traits such as leaf %N and leaf C:N are useful for understanding invasion impacts on soil N cycling, but that trait dissimilarities between invaded and reference communities are most informative. Regarding the in-depth studies of Microstegium, we did not find evidence to suggest that invasion increases net nitrification as other studies have shown. Instead, we found that an interaction between its abundance and the neighboring plant identify were important for determining soil nitrate concentrations and net nitrification rates in the greenhouse. In field, we found that variability in environmental conditions mediated the impact of Microstegium invasion on soil N pools and fluxes, primarily net ammonification, between sites through direct, indirect, and interactive pathways. Notably, we detected a scenario in which forest openness has a negative direct effect and indirect positive effect on ammonification in sites with high soil moisture and organic matter. Collectively, our findings suggest that dissimilarity in plant community traits, neighbor identity, and environmental conditions can be important drivers of invasion impacts on ecosystem N cycling and should be considered when evaluating the ecosystem impacts of invasive species across heterogeneous landscapes.

R-script modified VS-Lite model

Drought is a key factor affecting forest ecosystem processes at different spatio-temporal scales. For accurately modeling tree functioning ? and thus for producing reliable simulations of forest dynamics ? the consideration of the variability in the timing and extent of drought effects on tree growth is essential, particularly in strongly seasonal climates such as in the Mediterranean area. Yet, most dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) do not include this intra-annual variability of drought effects on tree growth. We present a novel approach for linking tree-ring data to drought simulations in DVMs. A modified forward model of tree-ring width (VS-Lite) was used to estimate seasonal- and site-specific growth responses to drought of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), which were subsequently implemented in the DVM ForClim. Ring-width data from sixteen sites along a moisture gradient from Central Spain to the Swiss Alps, including the dry inner Alpine valleys, were used to calibrate the forward ring-width model, and inventory data from managed Scots pine stands were used to evaluate ForClim performance. The modified VS-Lite accurately estimated the year-to-year variability in ring-width indices and produced realistic intra-annual growth responses to soil drought, showing a stronger relationship between growth and drought in spring than in the other seasons and thus capturing the strategy of Scots pine to cope with drought. The ForClim version including seasonal variability in growth responses to drought showed improved predictions of stand basal area and stem number, indicating the need to consider intra-annual differences in climate-growth relationships in DVMs when simulating forest dynamics. Forward modeling of ring-width growth may be a powerful tool to calibrate growth functions in DVMs that aim to simulate forest properties in across multiple environments at large spatial scales.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and energy status in the periwinkle Littorina littorea during experiments, 2011

In the future, marine organisms will face the challenge of coping with multiple environmental changes associated with increased levels of atmospheric Pco2, such as ocean warming and acidification. To predict how organisms may or may not meet these challenges, an in-depth understanding of the physiological and biochemical mechanisms underpinning organismal responses to climate change is needed. Here, we investigate the effects of elevated Pco2 and temperature on the whole-organism and cellular physiology of the periwinkle Littorina littorea. Metabolic rates (measured as respiration rates), adenylate energy nucleotide concentrations and indexes, and end-product metabolite concentrations were measured. Compared with values for control conditions, snails decreased their respiration rate by 31% in response to elevated Pco2 and by 15% in response to a combination of increased Pco2 and temperature. Decreased respiration rates were associated with metabolic reduction and an increase in end-product metabolites in acidified treatments, indicating an increased reliance on anaerobic metabolism. There was also an interactive effect of elevated Pco2 and temperature on total adenylate nucleotides, which was apparently compensated for by the maintenance of adenylate energy charge via AMP deaminase activity. Our findings suggest that marine intertidal organisms are likely to exhibit complex physiological responses to future environmental drivers, with likely negative effects on growth, population dynamics, and, ultimately, ecosystem processes.

Seafloor heterogeneity influences the biodiversity–ecosystem functioning relationships in the deep sea

Theoretical ecology predicts that heterogeneous habitats allow more species to co-exist in a given area. In the deep sea, biodiversity is positively linked with ecosystem functioning, suggesting that deep-seabed heterogeneity could influence ecosystem functions and the relationships between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning (BEF). To shed light on the BEF relationships in a heterogeneous deep seabed, we investigated variations in meiofaunal biodiversity, biomass and ecosystem efficiency within and among different seabed morphologies (e.g., furrows, erosional troughs, sediment waves and other depositional structures, landslide scars and deposits) in a narrow geo-morphologically articulated sector of the Adriatic Sea. We show that distinct seafloor morphologies are characterized by highly diverse nematode assemblages, whereas areas sharing similar seabed morphologies host similar nematode assemblages. BEF relationships are consistently positive across the entire region, but different seabed morphologies are characterised by different slope coefficients of the relationship. Our results suggest that seafloor heterogeneity, allowing diversified assemblages across different habitats, increases diversity and influence ecosystem processes at the regional scale, and BEF relationships at smaller spatial scales. We conclude that high-resolution seabed mapping and a detailed analysis of the species distribution at the habitat scale are crucial for improving management of goods and services delivered by deep-sea ecosystems.

Reconstruction of metal pollution and recent sedimentation processes in Havana Bay (Cuba): A tool for coastal ecosystem management.

Since 1998 the highly polluted Havana Bay ecosystem has been the subject of a mitigation program. In order to determine whether pollution-reduction strategies were effective, we have evaluated the historical trends of pollution recorded in sediments of the Bay. A sediment core was dated radiometrically using natural and artificial fallout radionuclides. An irregularity in the (210)Pb record was caused by an episode of accelerated sedimentation. This episode was dated to occur in 1982, a year coincident with the heaviest rains reported in Havana over the XX century. Peaks of mass accumulation rates (MAR) were associated with hurricanes and intensive rains. In the past 60 years, these maxima are related to strong El Niño periods, which are known to increase rainfall in the north Caribbean region. We observed a steady increase of pollution (mainly Pb, Zn, Sn, and Hg) since the beginning of the century to the mid 90s, with enrichment factors as high as 6. MAR and pollution decreased rapidly after the mid 90s, although some trace metal levels remain high. This reduction was due to the integrated coastal zone management program introduced in the late 90s, which dismissed catchment erosion and pollution.

Modelling of Geochemical Processes in Mangrove Ecosystem

The mangrove ecosystem is one of the earth’s most endangered ecosystems. In this study, geochemical features of three mangrove ecosystems, Mangalavanam, Vypeen and Nettoor were compared. Water, sediment and core samples were collected from these stations for a period of one year. Nutrients, organic compounds orgnic carbon and hydrographical parameters of the samples were estimated. The present study revealed higher concentration of carbon in the surface sediments. The major temporary or ultimate sink for various pollutants in estuaries is the sedimentary reservoir, including intertidal areas. In the present study, higher values for dissolved nutrients, POC and carbohydrates were observed during low tide.