On the periphery of global jihad. The North Caucasus: the illusion of stabilisation. OSW Point of View Number 45, November 2014

The situation in the North Caucasus has stabilised, in comparison with previous years, mainly as regards the activity of the Islamic military underground. This is an effect of ideological changes among the militants which have led to a dilution of the Caucasian armed struggle and its marginalisation in global jihad, since top priority has been granted to the Middle Eastern front. The factors which have contributed to this stabilisation are the organisational crisis in the Caucasus Emirate and the outflux of militants to the Middle East, as well the successful ‘carrot and stick’ policy adopted by Moscow. However, the partial stabilisation in the Caucasus is inherently precarious, being a contingent outcome of the situation rather than the result of systemic change. The region’s pressing problems remain unresolved; and these problems are generating chronic instability and cauing the Caucasus to drift away from Russia in civilisational terms. An economic or political crisis in the Russian Federation may result in the conflicts in the Caucasus unfreezing, including a reactivation of the idea of Chechen independence as well as the idea of the Caucasus Emirate, which is a part of global jihad.

The turn to the East. The flawed diversification of Russian foreign policy. OSW Point of View Number 44, November 2014

The ‘turn to the East’ proclaimed by Russia in 2010 has failed to bring about a fundamental breakthrough in her relations with Asian countries, nor has it produced impulses for the economic modernization of Russia’s Far Eastern territories. Although the energisation of Russian policy towards Asia which has taken place under this slogan has diversified Russian foreign policy somewhat, this diversification has two weak points: Firstly, it has occurred only in the political sphere. The share of Asian countries in Russia’s foreign economic relations has not risen significantly in comparison with the share of European and North American countries. Secondly, the ‘turn to the East’ has turned out primarily to be a turn towards China. In all spheres – diplomatic, economic, energy and military – it is Beijing that has become the most important Asian partner for Moscow. The result is that the policy that aimed to limit the excessive – in the Kremlin’s view – dependence of Russia on the West is likely to turn Russia into a ‘junior partner’ of the People’s Republic of China.

A weak link? Germany in the Euro-Atlantic security system. OSW Point of View Number 47, January 2015

The political, military and economic parameters of German power influence the vision of the international order that Berlin favours. Politically, Germany is a regional power in the EU with considerable diplomatic potential. Economically, it is the world's third largest power with growing global trade and investment links. At the same time, Germany's military potential is limited and the German strategic culture makes the country sceptical about the use of military instruments. Berlin is thus essentially interested in maintaining peace and stability, both in Europe and globally, and in developing diplomatic mechanisms to manage regional and global crises and conflicts. The German preference for dialogue and compromise in conflict situations in the regional and global dimensions may increasingly pose a risk to maintaining the cohesion and credibility of NATO – both from the perspective of the USA and Germany’s allies from Central-Eastern and Northern Europe.

A Convergence Process in Household Credit in Central and Eastern Europe. ECRI Commentary No. 16, 30 October 2015

The liberalisation of Eastern Europe’s market during the 1990s and the 2004 EU enlargement have had a great impact on the economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). Indeed, prior to these events, the financial system and household credit markets in CEE were underdeveloped. Nonetheless, it appeared to numerous economists that the development of the CEE financial system and credit markets was following an intensely positive trend, raising the question of sustainability. Many variables impact the level and growth rate of credit; several economists point out that a convergence process might be one of the most important. Using a descriptive statistics approach, it seems likely that a convergence process began during the 1990s, when the CEE countries opened their economies. However, it also seems that the main driver of this household credit convergence process is the GDP per capita convergence process. Indeed, credit to households and GDP per capita have followed broadly similar tendencies over the last 20 years and it has been shown in the literature that they appear to influence each other. The consistency of this potential convergence process is also confirmed by the breakdown of household credit by type and maturity. There is a tendency towards similar household credit markets in Europe. However, it seems that this potential convergence process was slowed down by the financial crisis. Fortunately, the crisis also stabilised the share of loans in foreign currency in CEE countries. This might add more stability to credit markets in Eastern Europe.

Late pleistocene and holocene sedimentation in the central and eastern Persian Gulf

The sandfraction of the sediment was analysed in five cores, taken from 65 m water depth in the central and eastern part of the Persian Gulf. The holocene marls are underlayn by aragonite muds, which are probably 10-11,000 years old. 1. The cores could be subdivided into coarse grained and fine grained layers. Sorting is demonstrated by the following criteria: With increasing median values of the sandfraction - the fine grained fraction decreases within each core; - the median of each biogenic component, benthonic as well as planktonic, increases; - the median of the relict sediment, which in core 1179 was carried upward into the marl by bioturbation, increases; - the percentages of pelecypods, gastropods, decapods and serpulid worms in the sandfraction increase, the percentages of foraminifera and ostracods decrease; - the ratios of pelecypods to foraminifera and of decapods to ostracods increase; - the ratios of benthonic molluscs to planktonic molluscs (pteropods) and of benthonic foraminifera to planktonic foraminifera increase (except in core 1056 and 1179); - the ratio of planktonic molluscs (pteropods) to planktonic foraminifera increases; - the globigerinas without orbulinas increase, the orbulinas decrease in core 1056. Different settling velocities of these biogenic particles help in better understanding the results : the settling velocities, hence the equivalent hydrodynamic diameters, of orbulinas are smaller than those of other globigerinas, those of planktonic foraminifera are smaller than those of planktonic molluscs, those of planktonic molluscs are smaller than those of benthonic molluscs, those of pelecypods are smaller than those of gastropods. Bioturbation could not entirely distroy this "grain-size-stratification". Sorting has been stronger in the coarse layers than in the finer ones. As a cause variations in the supply of terrigenous material at constant strength of tidal currents is suggested. When much terrigenous material is supplied (large contents of fine grained fraction) the sedimentation rates are high: the respective sediment surface is soon covered and removed from the influence of tidal currents. When, however, the supply of terrigenous material is small, more sandy material is taken away in all locations within the influence of terrigenous supply. Thus the biogenic particles in the sediment do not only reflect the organic production, but also the influence of currents. 2. There is no parameter present in all cores that is independently variable from grain size and can be used for stratigraphic correlation. The two cores from the Strait of Hormus were correlated by their sequences of coarse and fine grained layers. 3. The sedimentation rates of terrigenous material, of total planktonic and benthonic organisms and of molluscs, foraminifera, echinoids and ophiuroids are shown in table 1 (total sediment 6.3-75.5 cm/1000 yr, biogenic carbonate 1.9-3.6 cm/1000 yr). The sedimentation rates of benthonic organisms are nearly the same in the cores of the Strait of Hormus, whereas near the Central Swell they are smaller. In the upper parts of the two cores of the Strait of Hormus sedimentation rates are higher than in the deeper parts, where higher median values point to stronger reworking. 4. The sequence of coarse and fine grained intervals in the two cores of the Hormus Strait, attributed to variations in climate, as well as the increase of terrigenous supply from the deeper to the upper parts of the cores, agrees with the descriptions in the literature of the post Pleistocene climate as becoming more humid. The rise of sea level is sedimentologically not measurable in the marly sediments - except perhaps for the higher content of echinoids in the lower part of core 1056. These may be attributed to the influence of a migrating wave-base. 5. The late Pleistocene aragonite mud is very fine grained (> 50%< 2 p) and poor in fossils (0.5-1.8%) biogenic particles of total sediment. The sand fraction consists almost entirely of white clumps, c. 0.1 mm in diameter (1177), composed of aragonite needles and of detrital minerals with the same size (1201). The argonite mud was probably not formed in situ, because the water depth at time of formation was at most 35 m at least 12 m. The sorting of the sediment (predominance of the fine grained sand), the absence of larger biogenic components and of pellets, c. 0.2-0.5 mm in diameter, which are typical for Recent and Pleistocene locations of aragonite formation, as well as the sedimentological conditions near the sampling points, indicate rather a transport of aragonite mud from an area of formation in very shallow waters. Sorting as well as lenticular fabric in core 1201 point to sedimentation within the influence of currents. During alternating sedimentation - and reworking processes the aragonitic matrix was separated from the silt - and sand-sized minerals. The lenses grade into touches because of bioturbation. 6. In core 1056 D2 from Hormus Bay the percentages of organic carbon, total nitrogen and total carbonate were determined. With increasing amounts of smaller grain sizes the content of organic matter increases, whereas the amount of carbonate decreases. The amounts of organic carbon and of nitrogen decrease with increasing depth, probably due to early-diagenetic decomposition processes. Most of the total nitrogen is of organic origin, only about 10% may well be inorganically fixed as ammonium-nitrogen. In the upper part of the core the C/N-ratio increases with increasing depth. This may be connected with a stronger decomposition of nitrogen-containing organic compounds. The general decrease of the C/N-ratios in the lower part of the core may be explained by the relative increase of inorganically fixed ammonium-nitrogen with decreasing content of organic matter.

La Russie en face de Constantinople et de l'Europe depuis son origine jusqu'à nos jours : son histoire diplomatique sous ce double point de vue, d'après les pièces officielles, les meilleurs recueils de traités, les auteurs russes et étrangers, les sources, en un mot, les plus authentiques et les plus estimées pour chaque époque /

Includes bibliographical references.

Exporting to Eastern Europe : principles and practice, including a case study of the market for fire fighting equipment

East-West trade has grown rapidly since the sixties, stimulating a parallel expansion in the literature on the subject. An extensive review of this literature shows how: (i) most of the issues involved have at their source the distinctions between East and West in political ideology and/or economic management, and (ii) there has been a tendency to keep theoretical and practical perspectives on the subject too separate. This thesis demonstrates the importance of understanding the fundamental principles implied in the first point, and represents an attempt to bridge the gap identified in the second. A detailed study of the market for fire fighting equipment in Eastern Europe is undertaken in collaboration with a medium-sized company, Angus Fire Armour Limited. Desk research methods are combined with visits to the market to assess the potential for the company's products, and recommendations for future strategy are made. The case demonstrates the scope and limitations of various research methods for the East European market, and a model for market research relevant to all companies is developed. Tne case study highlights three areas largely neglected in the literature: (i) the problems of internal company adaptation to East European conditions; (ii) the division of responsibility between foreign trade organisations; and (iii) bribery and corruption in East-West trade. Further research into the second topic - through a survey of 36 UK exporters - and the third - through analysis of publicised corruption cases - confirms the representativeness of the Angus experience, and reflects on the complexity of the Bast European import process, which does not always function as is commonly supposed. The very complexity of the problems confronting companies reaffirms the need to appreciate the principles underlying the subject, while the detailed analysis into questions of, originally, a marketing nature, reveals wider implications for East-West trade and East-West relations.

N2 fixation in eddies of the eastern tropical South Pacific Ocean

Mesoscale eddies play a major role in controlling ocean biogeochemistry. By impacting nutrient availability and water column ventilation, they are of critical importance for oceanic primary production. In the eastern tropical South Pacific Ocean off Peru, where a large and persistent oxygen-deficient zone is present, mesoscale processes have been reported to occur frequently. However, investigations into their biological activity are mostly based on model simulations, and direct measurements of carbon and dinitrogen (N2) fixation are scarce. We examined an open-ocean cyclonic eddy and two anticyclonic mode water eddies: a coastal one and an open-ocean one in the waters off Peru along a section at 16°S in austral summer 2012. Molecular data and bioassay incubations point towards a difference between the active diazotrophic communities present in the cyclonic eddy and the anticyclonic mode water eddies. In the cyclonic eddy, highest rates of N2 fixation were measured in surface waters but no N2 fixation signal was detected at intermediate water depths. In contrast, both anticyclonic mode water eddies showed pronounced maxima in N2 fixation below the euphotic zone as evidenced by rate measurements and geochemical data. N2 fixation and carbon (C) fixation were higher in the young coastal mode water eddy compared to the older offshore mode water eddy. A co-occurrence between N2 fixation and biogenic N2, an indicator for N loss, indicated a link between N loss and N2 fixation in the mode water eddies, which was not observed for the cyclonic eddy. The comparison of two consecutive surveys of the coastal mode water eddy in November 2012 and December 2012 also revealed a reduction in N2 and C fixation at intermediate depths along with a reduction in chlorophyll by half, mirroring an aging effect in this eddy. Our data indicate an important role for anticyclonic mode water eddies in stimulating N2 fixation and thus supplying N offshore.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and calcification rate of eastern oyster Crassostrea virginica, 2011

Anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions reduce pH of marine waters due to the absorption of atmospheric CO2 and formation of carbonic acid. Estuarine waters are more susceptible to acidification because they are subject to multiple acid sources and are less buffered than marine waters. Consequently, estuarine shell forming species may experience acidification sooner than marine species although the tolerance of estuarine calcifiers to pH changes is poorly understood. We analyzed 23 years of Chesapeake Bay water quality monitoring data and found that daytime average pH significantly decreased across polyhaline waters although pH has not significantly changed across mesohaline waters. In some tributaries that once supported large oyster populations, pH is increasing. Current average conditions within some tributaries however correspond to values that we found in laboratory studies to reduce oyster biocalcification rates or resulted in net shell dissolution. Calcification rates of juvenile eastern oysters, Crassostrea virginica, were measured in laboratory studies in a three-way factorial design with 3 pH levels, two salinities, and two temperatures. Biocalcification declined significantly with a reduction of ~0.5 pH units and higher temperature and salinity mitigated the decrease in biocalcification.

THE EFFECT OF EASTERN KENTUCKY COAL FIRES ON LOCAL AIR QUALITY AND PERSONAL HEALTH

The purpose of this project was to investigate student learning in the areas of earth science and environmental responsibility using the subject of coal fires. Eastern Kentucky, where this study was performed, has several coal fires burning that affect the local air quality and may also affect the health of people living near them. This study was conducted during the regular education of 9th grade Earth Science classroom in Russell Independent Schools, located in Russell, Kentucky. Students conducted internet research, read current articles on the subject of coal fire emissions and effect on local ecology, and demonstrated what they learned through summative assessments. There were several aspects of coalmines and coal fires that students studied. Students were able to take this knowledge and information and use it as a learning tool to gain a better understanding of their own environment. Using the local history and geology of coalmines, along with the long tradition of mine production, was a very beneficial starting point, allowing students to learn about environmental impact, stewardship of their local environment, and methods of preserving and protecting the ecosystem.