Quantifying the response of cotton production in eastern Australia to climate change

Abstract The paper evaluates the effect of future climate change (as per the CSIRO Mk3.5 A1FI future climate projection) on cotton yield in Southern Queensland and Northern NSW, eastern Australia by using of the biophysical simulation model APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator). The simulations of cotton production show that changes in the influential meteorological parameters caused by climate change would lead to decreased future cotton yields without the effect of CO2 fertilisation. By 2050 the yields would decrease by 17 %. Including the effects of CO2 fertilisation ameliorates the effect of decreased water availability and yields increase by 5.9 % by 2030, but then decrease by 3.6 % in 2050. Importantly, it was necessary to increase irrigation amounts by almost 50 % to maintain adequate soil moisture levels. The effect of CO2 was found to have an important positive impact of the yield in spite of deleterious climate change. This implies that the physiological response of plants to climate change needs to be thoroughly understood to avoid making erroneous projections of yield and potentially stifling investment or increasing risk.

Prevalence and potential fitness cost of weak phosphine resistance in Tribolium castaneum (Herbst) in eastern Australia

The prevalence of resistance to phosphine in the rust-red flour beetle, Tribolium castaneum, from eastern Australia was investigated, as well as the potential fitness cost of this type of resistance. Discriminating dose tests on 115 population samples collected from farms from 2006 to 2010 showed that populations containing insects with the weakly resistant phenotype are common in eastern Australia (65.2 of samples), although the frequency of resistant phenotypes within samples was typically low (median of 2.3). The population cage approach was used to investigate the possibility that carrying the alleles for weak resistance incurs a fitness cost. Hybridized populations were initiated using a resistant strain and either of two different susceptible strains. There was no evidence of a fitness cost based on the frequency of susceptible phenotypes in hybridized populations that were reared for seven generations without exposure to phosphine. This suggests that resistant alleles will tend to persist in field populations that have undergone selection even if selection pressure is removed. The prevalence of resistance is a warning that this species has been subject to considerable selection pressure and that effective resistance management practices are needed to address this problem. The resistance prevalence data also provide a basis against which to measure management success.

Spatiotemporal aspects of Hendra Virus infection in Pteropid Bats (Flying-Foxes) in Eastern Australia

Hendra virus (HeV) causes highly lethal disease in horses and humans in the eastern Australian states of Queensland (QLD) and New South Wales (NSW), with multiple equine cases now reported on an annual basis. Infection and excretion dynamics in pteropid bats (flying-foxes), the recognised natural reservoir, are incompletely understood. We sought to identify key spatial and temporal factors associated with excretion in flying-foxes over a 2300 km latitudinal gradient from northern QLD to southern NSW which encompassed all known equine case locations. The aim was to strengthen knowledge of Hendra virus ecology in flying-foxes to improve spillover risk prediction and exposure risk mitigation strategies, and thus better protect horses and humans. Monthly pooled urine samples were collected from under roosting flying-foxes over a three-year period and screened for HeV RNA by quantitative RT-PCR. A generalised linear model was employed to investigate spatiotemporal associations with HeV detection in 13,968 samples from 27 roosts. There was a non-linear relationship between mean HeV excretion prevalence and five latitudinal regions, with excretion moderate in northern and central QLD, highest in southern QLD/northern NSW, moderate in central NSW, and negligible in southern NSW. Highest HeV positivity occurred where black or spectacled flying-foxes were present; nil or very low positivity rates occurred in exclusive grey-headed flying-fox roosts. Similarly, little red flying-foxes are evidently not a significant source of virus, as their periodic extreme increase in numbers at some roosts was not associated with any concurrent increase in HeV detection. There was a consistent, strong winter seasonality to excretion in the southern QLD/northern NSW and central NSW regions. This new information allows risk management strategies to be refined and targeted, mindful of the potential for spatial risk profiles to shift over time with changes in flying-fox species distribution.

Diet of dingoes and other wild dogs in peri-urban areas of north-eastern Australia

Knowledge of the resource requirements of urban predators can improve our understanding of their ecology and assist town planners and wildlife management agencies in developing management approaches that alleviate human-wildlife conflicts. Here we examine food and dietary items identified in scats of dingoes in peri-urban areas of north-eastern Australia to better understand their resource requirements and the potential for dingoes to threaten locally fragmented populations of native fauna. Our primary aim was to determine what peri-urban dingoes eat, and whether or not this differs between regions. We identified over 40 different food items in dingo scats, almost all of which were mammals. Individual species commonly observed in dingo scats included agile wallabies, northern brown bandicoots and swamp wallabies. Birds were relatively common in some areas but not others, as were invertebrates. Dingoes were identified as a significant potential threat to fragmented populations of koalas. Dietary overlap was typically very high or near-identical between regions, indicating that peri-urban dingoes ate the same types or sizes of prey in different areas. Future studies should seek to quantify actual and perceived impacts of, and human attitudes towards, peri-urban dingoes, and to develop management strategies with a greater chance of reducing human-wildlife conflicts.

The tectonic significance of lower Permain successions in the Texas Orocline (Eastern Australia)

The Texas Orocline is a prominent orogenic curvature that developed during the early Permian in the southern New England Orogen. Outliers preserving lower Permian sedimentary successions (Bondonga, Silver Spur, Pikedale, Terrica, Alum Rock and Ashford beds) approximately outline the oroclinal structure, but the tectonic processes responsible for the development of these basinal successions, and their relationships to the Texas Orocline, are unclear. Here we address this shortcoming by providing new U–Pb detrital and primary zircon ages from these successions, as well as detailed stratigraphic and structural data from the largest exposed succession (Bondonga beds). Field observations and U–Pb geochronological data suggest that the lower Permian successions in the Texas Orocline are remnants of a single, formerly larger basin that was deposited after ca 302 Ma. Time constraints for formation of this basin are correlative with constraints from the lower Permian Nambucca Block, which was likely deposited in response to regional back-arc extension during and/or after the development of the Texas Orocline. The conclusion that the lower Permian sedimentary basins in the Texas Orocline belong to this back-arc extensional system supports the suggestion that oroclinal bending in the New England Orogen was primarily controlled by trench retreat and associated overriding-plate extension.

First report of three Kudoa species from Eastern Australia: Kudoa thyrsites from Mahi mahi (Coryphaena hippurus), Kudoa amamiensis and Kudoa minithyrsites n. sp. from sweeper (Pempheris ypsilychnus)

Fish species around the world are parasitized by myxozoans of the genus Kudoa, several of which infect and cause damage of commercial importance. In particular, Kudoa thyrsites and Kudoa amamiensis infect certain cultured fish species causing damage to muscle tissue, making the fish unmarketable. Kudoa thyrsites has a broad host and geographic range infecting over 35 different fish species worldwide, while K. amamiensis has only been reported from a few species in Japanese waters. Through morphological and molecular analyses we have confirmed the presence of both of these parasites in eastern Australian waters. In addition, a novel Kudoa species was identified, having stellate spores, with one polar capsule larger than the other three. The SSU rDNA sequence of this parasite was 1.5% different from K. thyrsites and is an outlier from K. thyrsites representatives in a phylogenetic analysis. Furthermore, the spores of this parasite are distinctly smaller than those of K. thyrsites, and thus it is described as Kudoa minithyrsites n. sp. Although the potential effects of K. minithyrsites n. sp. on its fish hosts are unknown, both K. thyrsites and K. amamiensis are associated with flesh quality problems in some cultured species and may be potential threats to an expanding aquaculture industry in Australia.

Development of forest structure on cleared rainforest land in eastern Australia under different styles of reforestation

Rainforests in eastern Australia have been extensively cleared over the past two centuries. In recent decades, there have been increasing efforts to reforest some of these cleared lands, using a variety of methods, to meet a range of economic and environmental objectives. However, the extent to which the various styles of reforestation restore structure, composition and ecological function to cleared land is not presently understood. In this study, we develop and apply a method for quantifying the structural attributes of reforestation sites in tropical and subtropical Australia. The types of reforestation studied were plantation monocultures, mixed-species cabinet timber plots, diverse restoration plantings and unmanaged regrowth. Two age classes of reforestation were examined: 'young' (5-22 years), incorporating sites from all categories, and 'old' (30-70 years), in which only monoculture plantations and regrowth were represented. A total of 104 sites were surveyed including reference sites in intact rainforest and pasture. Intact rainforest was characterised by a suite of complex structural features including abundant special life forms (vines, epiphytes, hemi-epiphytes and strangler figs), a dense stand of trees in a range of size classes, a closed canopy, a shrubby understorey and a well-developed ground layer of leaf litter and woody debris. These features were lost on conversion to pasture. While all types of reforestation returned some elements of structural complexity to cleared land, young plantation monocultures, cabinet timber plots and young regrowth had a relatively simple structure. These sites typically had a low density of woody stems, a relatively open canopy and grassy ground cover, and lacked large trees, coarse woody debris and most special life forms. Restoration plantings and old regrowth were more complex, with a high density of woody stems, a relatively closed canopy and shrubby understorey. Old monoculture plantations in the tropics had acquired many of the structural attributes of intact forest, however this was not the case in the subtropics, where plantations were subject to more intensive management. The marked differences in structural complexity between sites suggest that the different types of reforestation practiced in eastern Australia are likely to vary considerably in their value as habitat for rainforest biota. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Speciation of Antechinus stuartii and A. subtropicus (Marsupialia : Dasyuridae) in eastern Australia: molecular and morphological evidence

This paper evaluates the systematic status of the Antechinus populations of northern New South Wales and southern Queensland, using a combined morphological and molecular (allozymes and mitochondrial DNA) approach. Analysis of the d-loop section of the mitochondrial DNA control region revealed two highly supported clades within A. stuartii sensu lato that were sympatric in the Border Ranges of northern New South Wales. However, genetic distances between these clades were small ( approximately 3%), indicating that time of divergence was probably relatively recent. Allozyme electrophoresis also showed very small differences between clades/ species. Analyses of cranial and dental characters showed that the members of each of these clades differed morphologically and that the clades corresponded to A. stuartii and the recently described A. subtropicus. The combined results support the species status of A. stuartii and A. subtropicus, and suggest that speciation was likely a result of a recent vicariant event.

Species of Lecithocladium Luhe, 1901 (Digenea, Hemiuridae) from Australian marine fishes, with a description of a new species from various hosts off eastern Australia

Lecithocladium moretonense sp. nov. is described from Monodactylus argenteus (type-host), Abudefduf sordidus, A. whitleyi, Herklotsichthys castelnaui, Lutjanus russelli, Platycephalus indicus, Rhabdosargus sarba, Siganus nebulosus and Scorpis lineolata from Moreton Bay, southern Queensland, and Acanthopagrus australis from off northern New South Wales. It differs from most Lecithocladium species in having a subglobular oral sucker and pharynx. Other distinguishing features are the thin-walled recurved seminal vesicle and the pars prostatica coiling over the seminal vesicle to the level of the anterior testis. Lecithocladium megalaspis Yamaguti, 1953 from Alepes apercna, Moreton Bay and L. angustiovum Yamaguti, 1953 from Scomber australasicus, Fremantle, Western Australia, are also reported, illustrated and measured.

Mutation scanning analysis of Marteilia sydneyi populations from different geographical locations in eastern Australia

Marteilia sydneyi (Paramyxea) is the causative agent of QX disease in oysters. In spite of the economic impact of this disease, its origin and the precise reason(s) for its apparent spread in Australian waters are not yet known. Given such knowledge gaps, investigating the population genetic structure(s) of M. sydneyi populations could provide insights into the epidemiology and ecology of the parasite and could assist in its prevention and control. In this study, single strand conformation polymorphism (SSCP)-based analysis of a region (195 bp) of the first internal transcribed spacer (ITS-1) of ribosomal DNA was employed to investigate genetic variation within and among five populations of M. sydneyi from oysters from five different locations in eastern Australia. The analysis showed the existence of a genetic variant of M. sydneyi common to the Great Sandy Strait, and the Richmond and Georges Rivers, as distinct from variants at the Pimpama and Clarence Rivers. Together with historical and other information relating to the QX disease outbreaks in eastern Australia, the molecular findings support the proposal that the parasite originated in the Great Sandy Strait and/or Richmond River and then extended southward along the coast. From a technical perspective, the study demonstrated the usefulness of SSCP as a tool to study the population genetics and epidemiology of M. sydneyi. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Incidence of Stagonospora meliloti and Acrocalymma medicaginis in Lucerne crowns and roots in eastern Australia, and their comparative aggressiveness to Lucerne and inheritance of reaction to S. meliloti in lucerne

The research presented indicates that lucerne crown and root rot caused by Stagonospora meliloti is prevalent in southern New South Wales, whereas Acrocalymma medicaginis is the more commonly observed pathogen in Queensland. Although both pathogens cause reddening of internal root and crown tissue of lucerne, they can be distinguished by symptomatology. S. meliloti causes a diffuse red blotching of the internal tissue accompanied by the presence of an external lesion, whereas A. medicaginis causes red streaking at the extremity of wedge-shaped, dry-rotted tissue. Inoculation of propagules of a susceptible lucerne clone indicated that S. meliloti was the more aggressive pathogen. Although A. medicaginis does not cause leaf disease, there was a strong relationship between the leaf and root reaction of clones to S. meliloti. Inheritance of resistance to S. meliloti in lucerne appeared to be conditioned by a single dominant gene, based on segregations observed in S-1 and F-1 populations, but not in a backcross population from the same family where an excess of susceptible individuals (74% v. expected of 50%) was obtained in a cross of a resistant F-1 individual to the susceptible parent. Resistance appears to be highly heritable, however, and amenable to population improvement by breeding. A conclusion of the research is that breeding for resistance to S. meliloti for lucernes to be grown in southern Australia would appear to be a worthwhile objective. Presently, no highly resistant cultivars exist anywhere in the world.

A simple regional-scale model for forecasting sorghum yield across North-Eastern Australia

Sorghum is the main dryland summer crop in NE Australia and a number of agricultural businesses would benefit from an ability to forecast production likelihood at regional scale. In this study we sought to develop a simple agro-climatic modelling approach for predicting shire (statistical local area) sorghum yield. Actual shire yield data, available for the period 1983-1997 from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, were used to train the model. Shire yield was related to a water stress index (SI) that was derived from the agro-climatic model. The model involved a simple fallow and crop water balance that was driven by climate data available at recording stations within each shire. Parameters defining the soil water holding capacity, maximum number of sowings (MXNS) in any year, planting rainfall requirement, and critical period for stress during the crop cycle were optimised as part of the model fitting procedure. Cross-validated correlations (CVR) ranged from 0.5 to 0.9 at shire scale. When aggregated to regional and national scales, 78-84% of the annual variation in sorghum yield was explained. The model was used to examine trends in sorghum productivity and the approach to using it in an operational forecasting system was outlined. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modelling the effects of row configuration on sorghum yield reliability in north-eastern Australia

In recent years, many sorghum producers in the more marginal (